[TVIX] Almost Exact Same Setup as Early March!Ramp angle is flattening since March, which is a great sign and matches almost exactly to the yellow ramp angle before the spike in March (I copied it over directly).
Volume roughly on track to match March spike too.
Fed unloaded one of their big news items today: markets.businessinsider.com
Yay! More corporate bailout to keep the FOMO pump alive!
Barely made a dent though haha, especially in the inverse markets. Law of diminishing returns and such.
Lets see how Papa Powell, loyal stooge to our Complainer in Chief, handles some congressional grilling this week!
Spxsell
[SPX 1D] On Verge of Breaking Below Final Upchannel, Last Stand!Goin under today or tomorrow and after that we can mostly expect a slide down...
[SPX] TRIN Megaphone Pattern... SELL Focused Volatility!I touched on the TRIN already here...
Wanted to take another angle.
Since the bounce, it has followed almost exactly to a megaphone pattern.
Those horizontal red and green lines are the indicator default, above red is SELL below green is BUY and in between in HOLD.
This is leaning very heavily into SELL and consistently holding PANIC SELL levels (>2).
We'll likely see another two red volume bars at least on Mon and Tues and see it flip back to panic sell before settling back under the red line around the green line while crashing down next few weeks.
[TVIX] March Spike Model... 1100 High on July 13th!Lets find out if history will repeat itself or how far it will diverge B).
Indicators and history signaling this spike has lots of room to run.
[SPX 1D] March Repeat Model... 2000 Low on July 13th!I just duplicated over the March crash and volume trend.
Mostly will be interesting to see if it follows a similar pattern or takes a completely different form of crash.
So far volume is a near perfect match!
Check that DPO holding strong while RSI indicators tank. This market got a long way down to go.
Let's see how it plays out B).
[SPX] Sliding Down into July... Support/Resistance Levels!Haven't updated my main full-scope SPX chart in awhile.
Already hitting my predicted resistance, I just added a couple additional red lines to account for it eventually dropping all the way down to the yellow lines.
Yellow = Long Term Trend Supports (Strongest)
Green = Major Horizontal Trend Supports (Stronger)
Red = Support/Resistance Points (Strong)
Lets see how it plays out!
[SPX 1D] In 'No Man's Land', Fri Gap Up Jumped Major Support...What a coincidence! Market stuck at one of the final support/resistance points before the top on Thursday.
Gap up was necessary to clear it and keep the FOMO pump going lol.
[SPX] The Crash Has Begun B)... June/July/Aug Buy/Sell TargetsJust posting up a clean and more refined version of my idea from yesterday...
And my idea from last week:
The data points to these being our best value ranges. My best pre-election low call is 2100 and it's going to come sooner rather than later.
We could still see a swing down to 1600 but that would happen after the election not before.
Let's see how this plays out!
Don't mind all the tags, just takin a little victory lap B).
[TVIX] The Future Has Arrived.. SPX Falls Some, TVIX EXPLODES!I've been calling this for three weeks now and been holding most my TVIX since May 18th among other inverse plays.
Just made some revisions to my OG idea and cleaned up the lines a bit to try to dial in the up spike here.
Here's all your entry and exit price targets from May 26th:
All that holds the same today.
TVIX still much better risk/reward than VIX.
We already blew past most my entry targets straight to the 'Okay Value' range of $205-$280.
I will not be buying above $205 personally because 'Okay Value' doesn't fit my investment strategy. However for others it may.
Investing above $280 becomes increasingly more risky and should be approached with caution.
I reupped all my shorts yesterday ~15%, just in the nick of time! Will likely reup another 20% if it dips back under $200 but depends on a lot. I'm very comfortable with my 25-30% portfolio short position (PRIOR to the explosion today).
I'm holding till at least $400 as indicated in my OG idea.
Gonna take a quick victory lap and tag all my best TVIX Long ideas and SPX Short over the past few weeks :).
Probably best to let this one ripen a bit before you harvest! B)
[TVIX x VIX] Upside Down-Channel Breakout Continues... Short SPXBoth markets holding right at the primary pre-crash support. Seems it's getting harder and harder for people to short below this level.
Even TVIX dropped to $108 and popped right back up to $120 no problem. Very sticky support.
Still waiting for the pop.
Every day further we get past the down-channel, without falling back below means the odds of a market crash are increasing. If it falls back below, then we must be patient.
Lookout for an uptrend heading back to $150. Maybe have some downside ahead still but very unlikely it'll go lower than $90 before the next crash.
My stop loss is -50% on this trade and I don't anticipate that getting triggered especially with a promising breakout already.
[SPX] Support Cross Imminent! Good Luck Tomorrow Papa PowellBoy am I glad my portfolio doesn't depend on Papa Powell delivering an optimistic report tomorrow.
No doubt the spin will dominate but pop should fade quick. Hard to find sustaining good news and optimistic data these days.
Gonna sleep peacefully tonight unlike the perma Bulls out there haha.
That high ADX cross with fast dropping ROC and dipping DPO is strong sell.
RSI on track to drop below long term uptrend channel and follow RVI, strong sell.
DMI holding steady, ready for a downswing.
MACD holding steady for the cross with lots of room for a downswing.
I reupped my shorts ~15% today right before close.
TVIX and VIX both increased 20% while SPX traded sideways lol.
Wait till this thing goes down even a little!
TRADER ASSIST NEEDED:
Still can't pin down this damn TRIN, it's bouncing around everywhere even now 1.5 hours after close. Currently at 2 but I've seen it from .33 up to 3.5 lol.
If it holds at 2 then that's very bearish.
Also the indicator doesn't match the actual data which is confusing as hell:
www.barchart.com
It's been at medium Buy all day long, ~.42 and now flip to 2 after close? But data shows 1.7 all day. So weird.
Any insight helpful!
[SPX] Soft SELL Up-Channel Breakout.. The Wheels are Coming Off!I've said my peace, just keepin' it real.
Lookout for the green supports on the way down.
If we get a Fed bump tomorrow, it will fade by next week.
Crash is imminent.
[SPX] Indicators Locked and Loaded... Bring It On FED!Let's see if Powell blows enough hot air tomorrow to keep this balloon afloat!
I'll be munching my popcorn from the safety of the ground B).
Do you see the pattern?
[SPX] For Bulls in Recovery After 6/10/2020... ENJOY :)Shhhh... it's okay, it's okay... just let it happen. The harder you fight, the more painful it's going to be.
Better get your shorts in now before the programmatic selloffs kick into gear ;).
Indicators ready to pop and we have the perfect catalyzing event.
Bout to ride this bear to the bank... YeeHaw!
[SPX] Exactly on 5 Year Trendline... About to Tip! We're on the steepest uptrend in this whole irrational bull market since September 2017.
Yesterday ended exactly on the 5 year (roughly average) trend line and possibly started the bounce off and reversal today. Not only that but it also happens to be the exact center of this latest upchannel.
Price stretching harder, higher and steeper to try to keep up!
Seems quite unsustainable, about to topple over. Tomorrow could be a great excuse to dump, timing couldn't be more perfect.
Look out on the way down at 3100, 2600, 2450 and 2100.
Let the market ripen a bit and should be bountiful short harvest in 2-3 weeks!
[SPX x DXY x VIX x TVIX 4H] Hold and Prepare for the Worst...Many of my fav TView data bears closed up their short positions last week, just a few of us hardcore bears left on here.
A substantial crash is still the most likely outcome this month. There's just no data to support steadily increasing prices all month.
Bulls would have you believe we are in a post-data market where nothing matters and that the market is different this time.
That is just blind rationale for irrational exuberance.
Contrarian life ain't easy but someone's gotta do it.
Stay strong bears, take some L's if you have to but get ready to jump on again right before the crash.
Data says odds are still in our favor here. I'll let you know if that changes.
[TVIX] Soft Breakout Alert... Buy Demand Increasing Above TrendLots to love today. We finally got the upside trend breakout we've been looking for for two weeks now haha.
1st bar today punctured channel and closed exactly on the support and second bar brought it home for us.
As promised, I did reup a little here on all my short positions based on that breakout.
This is a small but critical TVIX milestone for all the riders out there.
Remember this is the LOW end of the downtrend channel, breaking the second yellow line (around ~$150) will signal a much stronger Buy. Just soft buy now for risk takers.
If you got in at $108 you done good! Didn't expect it to reverse so sharply here. Although the VIX did give some indication of this as TVIX dropped a significant degree further yesterday. Reversion to the mean and whatnot.
MACD cross with lots of upside room.
RVI/RSI in uptrend with RVI leading the way with solid divergence.
DMI+ edging toward DMI- with ADX neutral and ready to swing.
DPO rising with ROC rising faster and ADX cross and way above already, very bullish.
Almost harvest season!
[TVIX] New SPX Local Highs, New TVIX Local Highs...This is a joke of a bull run.
SPX, VIX and TVIX should not all be setting new local highs together lol.
Gonna be a weird week I'm sure.
Please have more faith in my yellow channel line than I did, once it breaks that line and holds I'll be upping my position further (strong trend change signal).
Until then in holding pattern. Price floating around between supports right now and moving up with the SPX so we just need more data here.
[SPX 30M] Raging Bull Plank! Market on Glass Supports...Very little market hours upward movement. Vast majority happened in overnight gapups.
73% in the DJI according to @Dr_Roboto...
If market slips even a little, the whole thing could come toppling down!
[DXY] Massive RVI/RSI Divergence... This Thing's Ready to Pop! I'm not invested here, just trying to track my sleeper SPX short signal!
Not even sure how these indicators play outside stocks but lets find out :).
ADX sitting pretty for a strong trend change. MACD already signaling it. DPO and ROC set to spike up.
RVI tends to be a leading indicator for RSI and this is a kind of divergence I've never even seen in stocks but this would be ultra bullish.
Lets see how it plays out!
[TVIX] Holding Right Above Pre-Crash March Support! How Ironic..In hindsight, I should have had more confidence in my original bottom support and waited for better value or clearer signs of breakout (i.e. crossing $160).
The last time the Stoch RSI lines both held at zero (rare but more common with velocity inverse markets) was when TVIX was $40 a few days before the crash.
If TRIN spikes back up to >2 again next week, we'll know the end is nigh.
TRADER ASSIST NEEDED:
In the hour AFTER market close today I saw the final TRIN point flip around to various positions from it's current .63 to .93 to 1.5 and back to .63 again. It was changing around as I was trying to write about it haha.
Can anyone explain how that could happen with this kind of market indicator? ( Advancing Stocks/Declining Stocks / Advancing Volume/Declining Volume )
[SPX] Gap Up Saves the Day! Lookout for Support Cross Next WeekThe market survived another day by the skin of its teeth.
[SPX 30M] The Great Selloff... Look at that ROC GTFO!ROC not fooled anymore, flipping back to hard sell.
RSI hard sell and downtrend signal right now, RVI drop leading indication for more RSI drop, more divergence the better. RVI called the June 4th RSI support cross fakeout but is under RSI now meaning an RSI support break will likely lead to a stronger downtrend.
MACD cross with plenty of downward space.
ADX looking for a trend change. DPO cross under.
DMI+ cross under ADX.
Overall market still soft buy (TRIN).
Looks like the gap up saved the day!
The market's fate however is sealed.
