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S&P 500 Index (SPX) Analysis: Key Levels and Expectations.SP:SPX My Take: Looking at the 4-hour chart of the S&P 500 Index, it's clear that we're approaching a critical juncture. The price recently rallied up to the $5,630 - $5,655 resistance zone, which has been a significant barrier in the past. However, this level has proven to be tough for the bulls to break through, and we're now seeing signs of potential exhaustion. Key Levels: Resistance: $5,620 - $5,630: This is the zone where the price is currently facing resistance. It’s a crucial area to watch because a failure to break above it could result in a pullback. Support: $5,480 - $5,440: If we see a rejection from the current resistance, I'm expecting the price to retrace towards this support zone. This area has acted as a strong floor in the past, and it's likely where buyers might step in again. Trendline Support: The upward trendline, originating from the lows earlier this year, is still intact. This trendline could provide additional support around the $5,280 level if the price breaks through the aforementioned support zone. Expectations: Pullback Potential: Given the current price action, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a pullback from this resistance zone. The first area I'll be watching for potential support is the $5,480 - $5,440 zone. A break below this could bring us down to test the trendline around $5,280. Continuation of the Uptrend: If the bulls manage to push through the $5,620 - $5,630 resistance zone, we could see a continuation of the uptrend with a possible target towards $5,700 and beyond. But for now, I’m leaning towards the possibility of a short-term pullback before any further upside. Food for Thoughts: Right now, I’m closely watching how the price reacts around this resistance zone. A pullback could offer a good buying opportunity, especially if it holds above the $5,480 - $5,440 support area. On the other hand, a strong breakout above $5,630 would signal that the bulls are in control and could push the market to new highs. Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops! Happy Trading from Deno Trading!
SP:SPX
by Deno_Trading
US100 + S&P 500 WEEKLY MULTI TF ANALYSISHELLO TRADERS Hope everyone is doing great 📌 A look at NAS 100 & S&P500 from HTF - MULTI TIME-FRAME ANALYSIS NAS100 WEEKLY TF * 2 WEEKS bullish run delivering from the +OB On the NAS100 & S&P500 from the weekly. * We are opening bullish on the weekly signalling strong signs of cont. * But with (PO3) possible breather on the index's to see some reversal. * with a -FVG & -OB looking for a small reversal but momentum strength brings doubts or some skeptism. * Because The weekly & daily TF show we are still trading in BULLISH conditions on the NAS100 & S&P500. NAS100 & S&P500 DAILY TF * It becomes interesting on the Daily as we see an SMT on NAS & the S&P. * S&P 500 is mitigating the POI -FVG. * As NAS100 Is just shy of this PD ARRAY. * Opening bullish i am looking for some rejection to confirm this SMT. *WITH (PO3) RULES Either than that as we drop to the 4H * still bullish on NAS100 Trend cont. favoured until otherwise price shows some significant bearish move. SENTIMENTS THE SAME ON THE S&P500 * Looking for reversal patens other wise continuation of the move. 1H TF * Sentiment remains, remain bullish unless otherwise. * Probably be looking for short OPPORTUNITIES otherwise . * We will see what does the market dish. 🤷‍♂️😉🐻📉🐮📈 HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS OUT LOOK, SHARE YOUR PLAN BELOW,🚀 & LETS TAKE SOME WINS THIS WEEK. SEE YOU ON THE CHARTS. IF THIS IDEA ASSISTS IN ANY WAY OR IF YOU ENJOYED THIS ONE SMASH THAT 🚀 & LEAVE A COMMENT. ALWAYS APPRECIATED ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * Kindly follow your entry rules on entries & stops. |* Some of The idea's may be predictive yet are not financial advice or signals. | *Trading plans can change at anytime reactive to the market. | * Many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules & RISK MANAGEMENT. _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ | * ENTRY & SL -KINDLY FOLLOW YOUR RULES | * RISK-MANAGEMENT | *PERIOD - I TAKE MY TRADES ON A INTRA DAY SESSIONS BASIS THIS IS NOT FINACIAL ADVICE TO EXCECUTE ❤ LOVELY TRADING WEEK TO YOU!
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by PULEMokhothu
4
The doomsday retracementWow, what a week it has been. SPX down 3.5% and up 2.5% the day after. My thought is this backtrack is going to be the biggest retracement for the drop, just like we saw on bitcoin. APPL seems to have DOJ issues, NVIDIA chip issues in Taiwan... all seems to be lining up for potential lower for longer. My only buy this year will be TSLA. More on that. Goldilocks is not going to bring us back to pre-pandemic levels, rate cuts are not going to save the market. The narrative has already changed on July 17th when Trump said he didn't want to invade Taiwan, good luck buying after august.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500Short
by Osmanomics
1
S&P weekly consolidation in progressAt the end of last week, sellers confirmed weekly consolidation by closing below the previous week's low. From now on, bears have control over the price on the weekly timeframe. We should monitor the progression of weekly lows and highs to see when things start to shift, but until then, we should trust the sellers. It is also notable that if we look at the futures chart ( CME_MINI:ES1! ), we can see that buyers were unable to close above the previous day's high for the last 10 trading days. If buyers want to regain control, this will be their first objective. Please note that the price is currently positioned near the previous month's low, which can provide an intermediate support level. If you’re planning to short the market, it is better to wait for a pullback or for a breakout with retest. Finally, if weekly consolidation will convert into monthly consolidation it will be a major win for bears. Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPYShort
by hermes_trisme
Liquidity sources are drying upOn Friday, the S&P 500 in the last part of the session began to fall with some force. And today, we have seen that it has fallen and opened below the support zone at 4.998 The question we have to ask ourselves is: What does this mean? Does it mean it will continue to fall? Has a roof formed? Last Friday, the options contracts expired. This meant the disappearance of the gamma, and meant the disappearance of a source of liquidity, that is, the money coming from the dealers to cover the positions they had open. That money has disappeared, therefore, we must consider that a source of liquidity is missing. Until we see how the gamma is situated, at what levels it stabilizes and what the behavior of investors is in the options market, it is reasonable to think that we will witness temporary fragility at least during the first days of this week. And what does the chart tell us? This morning it has pierced the support in the 4.998 zone. This is a symptom of weakness, of short-term fragility. What 2 options are there? If it now rebounds and is not able to exceed the 5.000 level, it will most likely deploy a new downward leg. And if it rebounds, and moves sideways above 5.000, it is most likely that the price will try to return to the high zone. Now, 5.050 is a wall. It was already before the expiration of the options contracts, and it is even more so now. Therefore, maximum rise is in the 5.050 zone. If it fails to break above 5.000, we have support between 4.941 and 4.922 As long as the S&P 500 remains above that level, I will maintain a bullish bias.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by tradingconmike
End of Bullish Supertrend? Journey from Support to SupportDear Esteemed Members, The supertrend was bullish, but two sell signals concluded with a bearish price action. The rejections happened around the resistance level from a previous top. The price is now below the upper green support level. I think the S&P 500 market will reach the next support level: around $4600. So, I'd consider a short position. You can target the bottom support level of $4600, but keep a stop loss if the market reverses from the proximity of the violated support level. You can observe a similar setup on my yesterday ES analytics, where I explained a bearish MACD, RSI, BBP, and MFI. Kind regards, Ely
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elysian_Mind
3
Safe to forecast next drop yet?Hopefully its time to take another crack at forecasting Primary wave 3 down. Wave 2 started strong and managed to retrace 98% of Primary wave 1 down. I began to have doubts we were in the right place. Still would like a drop below my green trendline here: We finally broke well below the yellow and have created a lower low and lower high. These are early indications we may be in Intermediate wave 1 down inside of the Primary wave 3. A break above 4599 and then 4607 likely puts the market in a different place in wave theory time. Now that Primary wave 2 is longer from a duration standpoint and larger from a movement standpoint, there are some changes to the original Primary wave 3 forecasts. I originally expected Primary wave 3 to bottom in May, but my initial projections a few weeks back placed the bottom in March/April at the latest. The movement extension percentages did not change, nor did their values as that data was predicated on Primary wave 1’s movement. Current forecast is a duration of 900-922 trading hours which would place the bottom around mid- to late-May 2024. The bottom has now risen to a area between 3600-3660. The movement and duration are based on similar wave 1/wave 2 relationships from historical wave theory data. Primary wave 1 was 461 hours long while wave 2 was 162 (as of the high on December 1). This forms a ratio of 2.8457 (461/162). Primary wave 1 moved 503.29 points down while wave 2 gained 495.608 of that back. Ratio is 1.0155 (503.29/495.608). I searched for similar datasets in which the 1:2 duration value was between 2.4 and 3.1; while the movement was between 0.95-1.08. For additional more refined data I shrunk these values to 2.6-2.9 on the duration which provide a tighter grouping of possibilities. These historical wave pointed to an extra 300 hours of duration and bottom around 3550. While I will keep these in mind, I think my historical bottom targets have been too long and too low. I will keep the target around 911 hours near 3630. I have taken the median models to forecast what the movement should look like to get to a bottom of 3630 over 911 trading hours. Intermediate wave 1 appears more realistic as do wave 3. This is more of a perfect world wave placement on the way down but it is based on normal historical movement for Intermediate waves inside of a wave 3. Right now wave 1 could end late this month/early in January around 4220. Wave 2 bounces up near 4475 around mid-January 2024. Intermediate wave 3 should be the big drop we have been looking for and likely drawn out over 2 months. That current bottom aligns beneath 3800. Wave 4 looks to move up toward 4000 by early April and the final bottom is end of May/early June around 3630. At this 3630 bottom there is likely 6 months or less until the final bear market bottom. Things should blast off beginning late in 2024. Here is the current possible path moving forward: I continue to lean on China taking Taiwan as the major driver of downward movement in the first half of 2024 but we shall see. COVID shutdown scares could rattle some industries but likely wont do enough damage this time around as most people desensitized to lockdowns and understand how quickly industries snapped back from COVID declines.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Weekly Update: Fire is MesmerizingAs we continue to subdivide within this larger cycle wave a down targeting the low 3,000 area, we appear to find ourselves in a countertrend b-wave retracement. This area has the potential to carve out potential complex patterns as b-waves and wave 4's are the areas where traders are frustrated from a sentiment standpoint. I do not think we should be prepared for an easy consolidation and additionally, I believe we could be for a while. Within this area price should behave within a range. It would not be uncommon to experience irregular corrective patterns that slightly exceed previous highs or lows. As a Pattern Analyst I have no mechanism to forecast these sub-divisions. My main reason I believe we stay contained within a range is based entirely on 2 aspects of data. (1) we have retraced much higher than in standard form, and (2) The IWM just completed it's b-wave triangle, and if recent history is any guide when comparing small caps to large caps is there appears to be 1-3 month lag in the broader markets. See my small cap analysis here . Nonetheless, what comes next is a c-wave. If you have followed me for a while, you'll know a c-wave down feels like a crash. I'm not saying the stock markets are about to crash...I'm simply saying that soon if you find yourself saying out loud, "This feels like the stock market is crashing" ...that's how you know you're in a c-wave. Are the bulls playing with fire here? My mom always told me that fire is mesmerizing, but don't you dare touch it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
3
Is This Rally About To Crumble?Minor wave 4, if it ended was a dud. But the models indicate Minor wave 5 and the Intermediate A top will come quick. The historical models indicate the market can now top as early as the second hour of trading tomorrow. Minor wave 3 is likely already through wave 3 as seen here: Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383. The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length. Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong. Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa. The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here: This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months). I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
Why you should be worried if you hold stocks. S&P Big PictureThe S&P has had a bull run in 2023 but it has stalled at 4600. What is even more worrying for the bull is that: 1) There is a huge Weekly double top with divergence on S&P 2) There is a pattern to sell 3) The neckline was broken and the market closed below it Overall the market is going to be bearish for the coming months. We will continue to sell all indexes and stocks and will post a daily analysis of what we are seeing. Follow us for more updates!
SP:SPXShort
by JavonDias_Trading
SPX SPY in No Mans Land, Never seen before in market historyThis is a weekly chart and I meant to share this on Friday; but forgot. Blue vertical lines are the paths from previous bear market lows to new all time highs, over-layed to the bottom of October 2022. Red vertical lines are the bear market paths from all time highs to bear market lows, over-layed to the high of January 2022. As you can see we are no longer following the path of the "new" bull markets, and we we deviated away from bear market paths... well a while ago. So should we have been on a bear market path this whole time, but the stimulus from Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act helped support the market for just a short period of time?!?!? Well we will find out. I just know this is truly a historic pattern.
SP:SPX
by Options_Trading