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End of Bullish Supertrend? Journey from Support to SupportDear Esteemed Members, The supertrend was bullish, but two sell signals concluded with a bearish price action. The rejections happened around the resistance level from a previous top. The price is now below the upper green support level. I think the S&P 500 market will reach the next support level: around $4600. So, I'd consider a short position. You can target the bottom support level of $4600, but keep a stop loss if the market reverses from the proximity of the violated support level. You can observe a similar setup on my yesterday ES analytics, where I explained a bearish MACD, RSI, BBP, and MFI. Kind regards, Ely
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by Elysian_Mind
3
Safe to forecast next drop yet?Hopefully its time to take another crack at forecasting Primary wave 3 down. Wave 2 started strong and managed to retrace 98% of Primary wave 1 down. I began to have doubts we were in the right place. Still would like a drop below my green trendline here: We finally broke well below the yellow and have created a lower low and lower high. These are early indications we may be in Intermediate wave 1 down inside of the Primary wave 3. A break above 4599 and then 4607 likely puts the market in a different place in wave theory time. Now that Primary wave 2 is longer from a duration standpoint and larger from a movement standpoint, there are some changes to the original Primary wave 3 forecasts. I originally expected Primary wave 3 to bottom in May, but my initial projections a few weeks back placed the bottom in March/April at the latest. The movement extension percentages did not change, nor did their values as that data was predicated on Primary wave 1’s movement. Current forecast is a duration of 900-922 trading hours which would place the bottom around mid- to late-May 2024. The bottom has now risen to a area between 3600-3660. The movement and duration are based on similar wave 1/wave 2 relationships from historical wave theory data. Primary wave 1 was 461 hours long while wave 2 was 162 (as of the high on December 1). This forms a ratio of 2.8457 (461/162). Primary wave 1 moved 503.29 points down while wave 2 gained 495.608 of that back. Ratio is 1.0155 (503.29/495.608). I searched for similar datasets in which the 1:2 duration value was between 2.4 and 3.1; while the movement was between 0.95-1.08. For additional more refined data I shrunk these values to 2.6-2.9 on the duration which provide a tighter grouping of possibilities. These historical wave pointed to an extra 300 hours of duration and bottom around 3550. While I will keep these in mind, I think my historical bottom targets have been too long and too low. I will keep the target around 911 hours near 3630. I have taken the median models to forecast what the movement should look like to get to a bottom of 3630 over 911 trading hours. Intermediate wave 1 appears more realistic as do wave 3. This is more of a perfect world wave placement on the way down but it is based on normal historical movement for Intermediate waves inside of a wave 3. Right now wave 1 could end late this month/early in January around 4220. Wave 2 bounces up near 4475 around mid-January 2024. Intermediate wave 3 should be the big drop we have been looking for and likely drawn out over 2 months. That current bottom aligns beneath 3800. Wave 4 looks to move up toward 4000 by early April and the final bottom is end of May/early June around 3630. At this 3630 bottom there is likely 6 months or less until the final bear market bottom. Things should blast off beginning late in 2024. Here is the current possible path moving forward: I continue to lean on China taking Taiwan as the major driver of downward movement in the first half of 2024 but we shall see. COVID shutdown scares could rattle some industries but likely wont do enough damage this time around as most people desensitized to lockdowns and understand how quickly industries snapped back from COVID declines.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Weekly Update: Fire is MesmerizingAs we continue to subdivide within this larger cycle wave a down targeting the low 3,000 area, we appear to find ourselves in a countertrend b-wave retracement. This area has the potential to carve out potential complex patterns as b-waves and wave 4's are the areas where traders are frustrated from a sentiment standpoint. I do not think we should be prepared for an easy consolidation and additionally, I believe we could be for a while. Within this area price should behave within a range. It would not be uncommon to experience irregular corrective patterns that slightly exceed previous highs or lows. As a Pattern Analyst I have no mechanism to forecast these sub-divisions. My main reason I believe we stay contained within a range is based entirely on 2 aspects of data. (1) we have retraced much higher than in standard form, and (2) The IWM just completed it's b-wave triangle, and if recent history is any guide when comparing small caps to large caps is there appears to be 1-3 month lag in the broader markets. See my small cap analysis here . Nonetheless, what comes next is a c-wave. If you have followed me for a while, you'll know a c-wave down feels like a crash. I'm not saying the stock markets are about to crash...I'm simply saying that soon if you find yourself saying out loud, "This feels like the stock market is crashing" ...that's how you know you're in a c-wave. Are the bulls playing with fire here? My mom always told me that fire is mesmerizing, but don't you dare touch it. Best to all, Chris
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by maikisch
3
Is This Rally About To Crumble?Minor wave 4, if it ended was a dud. But the models indicate Minor wave 5 and the Intermediate A top will come quick. The historical models indicate the market can now top as early as the second hour of trading tomorrow. Minor wave 3 is likely already through wave 3 as seen here: Based on a hypothetical top of 4384 the path in the image above outlines the rough movement. So far, the waves are underperforming this model which could indicate a market top below 4383. The overall analysis above is an early projection on Intermediate wave B's movement assuming Minor wave 5 tops at 4381 and within the second hour of trading on Tuesday. If either of these do not prove true, I will update this analysis tomorrow night. A slightly higher or longer duration to the top will likely raise the Intermediate wave B low and possibly extend Intermediate wave B's length. Strongest model agreement for the wave B bottom rests within 25-29 hours in length. The lowest white rectangle contains the area of most model agreement between 4130-4150. The next strongest is the yellow rectangle which is 4210-4230. The green rectangle is my current target box at 4180-4200. These wave Bs have a history of extending greater than 100% of the preceding A wave which could place the bottom below 4103 although the likelihood is not strong. Based on the projection of a bottom near 4188 in 27 bars, the Minor waves A, B, and C are roughly placed based on historical data. These are nominal placements and most of the time are too perfect and unlucky to occur as indicated. Normally wave A could be longer and wave B shorter or vice versa. The final consideration is the location of Intermediate wave B's endpoint. This movement was originally forecasted to take a slower route, however, the weeklong gains of Intermediate wave A are indicating Intermediate wave B can end before the close on Friday. If this occurs, the final end of Intermediate wave C and Primary wave 2 could end before December 1st as seen here: This would indicate December begins the massive downtrend from ~4430 all the way down to 3400 or lower (over the course of 4-6 months). I will continue to post updates on this original analysis or in new analyses as needed. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
9
Why you should be worried if you hold stocks. S&P Big PictureThe S&P has had a bull run in 2023 but it has stalled at 4600. What is even more worrying for the bull is that: 1) There is a huge Weekly double top with divergence on S&P 2) There is a pattern to sell 3) The neckline was broken and the market closed below it Overall the market is going to be bearish for the coming months. We will continue to sell all indexes and stocks and will post a daily analysis of what we are seeing. Follow us for more updates!
SP:SPXShort
by JavonDias_Trading
SPX SPY in No Mans Land, Never seen before in market historyThis is a weekly chart and I meant to share this on Friday; but forgot. Blue vertical lines are the paths from previous bear market lows to new all time highs, over-layed to the bottom of October 2022. Red vertical lines are the bear market paths from all time highs to bear market lows, over-layed to the high of January 2022. As you can see we are no longer following the path of the "new" bull markets, and we we deviated away from bear market paths... well a while ago. So should we have been on a bear market path this whole time, but the stimulus from Inflation Reduction Act and Chips Act helped support the market for just a short period of time?!?!? Well we will find out. I just know this is truly a historic pattern.
SP:SPX
by Options_Trading
S&P 500 ForecastS&P 500 moved towards the 3980 level as traders prepared for tomorrow’s CPI data meanwhile, the tech heavy NASDAQ Composite was up by 0.4%. Today’s rebound is led by energy stocks. WTI oil managed to get above the $73 level as traders focused on the Keystone pipeline outage. From a big picture point of view, S&P 500 continues to consolidate in the range between the support at 3915 and the resistance at 3975. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional momentum after the CPI data and the Fed decision. If the CPI report shows that inflation is slowing down, the current consolidation will serve as a good base for an upside move. However, it should be noted that traders may remain somewhat cautious ahead of the Fed decision.A move below the 50 EMA, which is located near the 3915 level, may be interpreted as a sign of an upcoming sell-off. S&P 500 received strong support near this level, so traders may rush out of their long positions if this support level is broken we still in down trend and we should break the yellow line and back 4100 level The Fed is still playing catch up to tame rising prices after its protracted gross mischaracterisation last year of inflation as ‘transitory’ and its initially timid steps to withdraw monetary stimulus, The world’s most powerful central bank is now confronted with two unpleasant choices next year, crush growth and jobs to get to its 2% target or publicly validate a higher inflation target and risk a new round of destabilized inflationary expectations. I think Rather than fall to 2-3% by the end of next year, U.S. core PCE inflation will probably prove rather sticky at around 4% or above.
SP:SPXShort
by moonypto
8
SPX Further Downside Incoming (1D)SPX Daily Price Chart After the recent bounce of the level of resistance (Red Box) the SPX snapped it's first small level of resistance (Teal Dotted) and has continued lower. Price has also closed below the 50-day EMA while the 12-day and 26-day have recently crossed and the 50-day flattens out. The next level of support (First Green Box) should come into play within the next several days, unless we get a big sell-off Friday and hit it today, but this is the first area we expect to see a bounce. Also notable is the minor trend line (Yellow Dotted) that has been broken which should lead price action to eventually come in contact with it's major trend line (Yellow Solid) again. Relative Strength Not a lot to show here, however there have been two significant moves. First is the rejection of the 50 level (Aqua Circle) and the second is the break below (Aqua Highlighter) the major trend line (Yellow Solid). Both of these moves fortify the recent price action and indicate further weakness in trend. On Balance Volume OBV broke out of it's downward trend back in May (Yellow Solid) and started trading in an upward channel after. There hasn't been a reversal formation, but there is a small breakout forming (Aqua Highlighter) that coincides with recent price action and RSI movement. More evidence of an upcoming bounce is seen as a level of resistance is also being approached (Red Solid) TLDR; Dang man, talkin' bout no time man, dang ol' markets bleedin' man, come on up or dang ol' down man. Uh.. yea.. We think we understood that. Anyway.. Price action is on it's way down to a small level of resistance where we could see a bounce. RSI has bounced down off the 50 level and has broken down from it's main trend line; signaling a move lower. OBV has just begun to move down out of it's upward channel and also faces a level of resistance that could lead to bounce. What Seems Legit? A bit more of lower movement to hit the levels of resistance outlined above, then further downside Chart Key Yellow Solid = Major Trend Line Yellow Dashed = Minor Trend Line Red Solid = Major Support or Resistance Red Box = Resistance Green Boxes = Supports / Target Areas Teal Dotted = Small Level of Resistance Aqua Highlighter = RSI / OBV Breakouts
SP:SPXShort
by Seems_Legit_Research
$spx reset for Q4 incoming! 4200 levelsNotice how we have tapped 4600 which an extreme overbought level. SPX must retest a lower level of 4380-4330 and if it does not hold it should freefall to 4200 in prep for Q4. SPX has been in a bullish outbreak since march 2023 with only a slight dip in june 2023. a correction is due. I am using AMEX:SPXS as the inverse of this play. I do have a sentiment which is: when the Dollar is up, stocks are down and VICE versa. We are noticing incoming strength from DXY which is causing a shorting of SPX and other index + stocks. Trade wisely
SP:SPXShort
by chestephens1
RNLC - US Large Cap - & S&P500 This is a very bearish outline for the market. If we look at RNLC - the US Large Cap Select ETF then it is showing head and shoulders with a pair of longer-term RSI divergences. I believe this could be an indicator of where SPX is going in the near future. SPX itself is showing a rising wedge that appears to be forming right where the head and shoulders on RNLC is. There is what appears to be a messy very-long-term RSI divergence in place as well along with a messy fledging short-term RSI divergence. I'm waiting for a good entry sign, but I think what we are witnessing is a B Wave higher (a bull trap in non-technical terms) I suspect RNLC may lead SPX to a certain extent. So I will be using it as an indicator here. In elliot wave terms, I sketch out the following and feedback is welcome. My suspicion is that we have seen a leading diagonal move down from the Jan 2022 highs (rather than a regular impulse). This form allows for overlap of 2 and 4 (which is a no-no in regular impulses). I also suspect that the bounce from the October lows is an ABC up, and the bounce from the March lows is actually a wave 2 up. It's all one big trap-within-a-trap. I have no idea of the catalyst yet... but of course, catalysts are only usually visible with 20/20 hindsight. The technicals are what they are and I cannot ignore them. I would set 2900 as a conservative downside target here, but I actually have no idea of the total downside potential. The 2000-3000 range is where many other analysts are placing their targets, so I think it's important to not get too greedy or buy-in to the narratives about total economic collapse. This would constitute 100% of the move from the 2022 high. I am already short a couple of stocks and I have an short against the SPX itself... and if the short-term wedge breaks I will certainly double-down on my positions. Trade carefully and more updates soon.
SP:SPXShort
by RogueEconomics
2
VIX: MICRO VOLATILITY CYCLES / POINTS OF CONTROL / MACD & RSI DESCRIPTION: In the chart above I have provided a MICRO ANALYSIS of the VIX INDEX which represents volatility in the overall US MARKET. This is a short term play for this week based on micro volatility cycles. POINTS: 1. Deviation in critical thresholds is 4 points a small adjustment from previous VIX charts published as volatility adheres to this more often. 2. 23 Point serves as critical support for VIX. 3. Current Trend = Symmetrical Triangle Formation 2nd Phase 4. Overlapping Green Dotted Lines = Market Open 5. Overlapping Red Dotted Lines = Market Close IMO: In my opinion whether or not current setup becomes invalidated I do not see current price action falling below 23 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE DOWNSIDE while 31 POINTS is the POINT OF CONTROL TO THE UPSIDE. MACD: Current MACD levels continue to fall and are bound to flip into negative territory further confirming current setup that needs some pullback for VIX. RSI: Current RSI levels are dropping and no current signs of DIVERGENCE that would indicate a sudden flip to positive territory. SCENARIO #1: VIX price action agrees with current setup & respects symmetrical triangle setup and bounces off 25 in coming session & precedes to the upside to break 29. SCENARIO #2: VIX price action disagrees with current symmetrical triangle setup and breaks below 25 & faces possible bounce at 23 instead. FULL CHART LINK:https://www.tradingview.com/chart/UUCv2fGk/ TVC:VIX AMEX:UVXY
TVC:VIXLong
by DGSTBROKERACC