SPXUSD (SNP500 / SPX) - Diagonal (Wedge) - SEELL ORDERS* If you like this free video and the idea itself, please remember to support me with a like or share, so I can produce more frequent contents such as this one. Thank you!
* Related ideas show how I was able to call the BIG drops in 2018.
Analysis Summary:
Scenario 1:
Leading Diagonal in Minor ABC (blue), part of a larger degree Ending Diagonal in the next Bull Market run, before the Market Crash.
In this scenario, a deep pull-back should take place until the 50-61.8% Fibonacci Retracements.
Fibonacci Extensions from Minors A&B (Minor C projection) are synchronizing with the Wedge Formation towards 2885.00 levels, but also with the joining Bearish Divergence.
Scenario 2:
SPX ( SPXUSD ) Alternate Count (turquoise) has been labeled in an Impulse which presents an Extension in Minor 3 (turquoise).
This scenario puts SPX ( SPXUSD ) in a Minor 4 (turquoise) correction, which should honor the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci Retracements of Minor 3 (turquoise).
Decision:
Scenario 1 is the preferred outcome and this is because the rising wedge does not belong in Minor 3.
* Both scenarios imply a bearish sequence as the next structure.
SPXUSD (SPX) - SELL ORDERS
Aggressive Entry @ 2885.00 with SL @ 2965.00
Moderate Entry @ 2915.00 with SL @ 2965.00
Conservative Entry @ 2980.00 with SL @ 3050.00
TP @ 2800.00 / 2750.00 / 2600.00 / 2550.00
SPX - 4H Chart
snapshot
* This idea is to be treated as simple Market commentary and not as an immediate investment advice.
Trade with care!
Many pips ahead!
Richard
Spxshort
Long if We Surpass Records, Short if We CantThe S&P 500 is flirting with record highs again after a major correction last December which only missed becoming a bear market by a marginal amount ending just shy of down 20 percent. Going on to the 11th year in the bull market, investors should then take a look at where we could be and a few signals to determine where we are headed which can be found on Daily FX’s Discovery to Deflation chart.
If you follow the S&P 500 then you will notice that recent price action interestingly resembles areas around the the blow-off and transition phase. However, the problem with this road map is that we simply do not know where we are in the cycle. As of right now, either we are in between the bear-trap and renewed optimism, or we are between a bull-trap and THE lower-high or the final lower-high before a massive downturn (hence emphasizing ‘the’). If we look at the S&P 500 and the above chart, we can see where these levels could be.
Since this is the case, we are forced to look at some other signals. First, volume on average has been a noticeable step lower ever since December 2018 on either of the bull or bear side. Second, while the consecutive candle count shows a recent uptick in consecutive up days, the down days are much more volatile. In other words, it only took a few down days to correct almost 20 percent and three months to gain it back. In spite of this, while the downward volatility is extreme so too is the upward momentum. A near 20 percent gain in three months is incredible for any asset. Most mutual and hedge funds would be happy with 20 percent returns over 3 years let alone over 3 months. In other words, price action is incredibly choppy. Where are markets this choppy? Usually at the end of a bull cycle during what’s referred to as the distribution phase.
Yes, choppiness occurs during public participation phase as well, but the public participation phase occurs mid-cycle and not after ten years. There could potentially be what has been referred to as an elongated cycle. This is possible, but lacks precedent in the United States as the current bull market is now the oldest bull market in history coming in at 10 years.
Overall, a bearish view is not just predicated on these cyclical theories. We know global growth is already slowing. Germany just barely avoided recession this year while Italy is already in one. China may be in recession as well, but we wouldn’t know because they manipulate their data to such an extreme. Capital inflows into markets are significantly lower since the bull run began in 2009. Interest rates across the world are at 0 while the only hawkish central bank, the Fed, has reversed course on fears of the global growth slowdown. A common truism in trading is “Don’t short support, don’t buy resistance.” Maybe we can reach more record highs, but let’s not go all in until we can pass the current ones. If we don’t and pass below December’s levels, then markets will start to panic and you should too if you’re still in stocks by then.
97% Bullish Sentiment--04/05/19 Morning NotesIf you like our post and would like to continue seeing them, please help us grow our network-Thanks You!!
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Morning Notes 04/05/19 Sentiment Timing
Trading Environment-Short Term: Current Environment-Neutral/Bearish
Hi Everyone,
Futures are getting a little pop from the job numbers this morning, but not a crazy gap higher like we have seen in the previous sessions. Nothing has changed and I am not going to beat a dead horse here. Buy at your own risk! Short term, the predictive analytics model is within the bearish stage, with the back end of the range approaching shortly. Once that hits, it will be bearish for the short term and the intermediate term, will remain cautiously bullish, but that is not a reason to buy up here. I am still looking for the 130-170 point pullback that could start anywhere up here and any day as well. I like the short side from 2885-2905 with a stop above 2920.
The range SPX range for today is 2885 high and 2880 low. A break of 2885 the spx should try for 2896/2900. A push below 2880 we could see 2873/2852. G
SPX CASH 60 minute technicals
Stochastics: Overbought
Divergences- Bearish Divergences
Resistance Levels: R1-2885 R2-2896 R3 2900
Support Levels: S1-2880 S2-2873 S3 2852
Trending Pivots: Neutral/Higher
Panic if SPX500 Does not Bust Through Record HighsNot a perfect pattern, but few are. If the SPX500 does not reach record highs and does not go beyond those record highs with strong conviction, then it will suffer from the exact same chart pattern DJI did right before the 2008 Financial Crisis. If price action starts to move down then we would be witnessing a large head and shoulders pattern right into a financial crash or at the very least a large correction. We already know a recession is coming sometime in the upcoming year, but the question is when. However, that does not mean I am saying this pattern will form. I'm just saying its possible. And if it starts to form, be very very careful.
Also by the way, volume is super f word low right now probably indicating most traders are skeptical as to why they should buy at such high levels. It is the second lowest level of volume since 2006 with the lowest level of volume since 2006 only occurring last year. Big red flag guys and gals. Too expensive for many. Expect institutional traders to attempt to unload their positions that they too believe are probably too expensive.
SPX Short Through AprilA meaningful sell of is imminent. Anchored Fib suggests that the target zone to the downside is 26-2500. Huge Elliott Wave and fib resistance near the highs... Momentum has a bearish divergence (MACD, RSI, etc.). Good time to short options with a stop over the highs and let it ride. Looking for 61.8-78.6 retracement of previous swing up - and then long from that level because the markets will rip higher.
SPX Proejcted DownturnAny momentum oscillator that is thrown against this chart shows bearish bias (MACD, RSI, etc.). There is a huge divergence in momentum from the previous highs. Using anchored fib the zone of a probable pullback can be established and is shown in the chart. I expect the S&P to enter into the 2500 area before a resumption of uptrend can continue. Some artificial inflation could also be at work prolonging the correction and potentially making the initial drop more sudden and floor-falls-out-ish! Caution near the highs... Huge Elliott Wave and fib resistance level. Play the pullback into May and then look to go long through the rest of the year.
SHORT SPX Reversed Off Resistance, Prepare For Further DropSPX reversed off its resistance at 2686 (100% Fibonacci extension , horizontal pullback resistance) where it is expected to drop further to its support at 2743 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal overlap support).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) reversed off its resistance at 95% where a corresponding drop is expected.
DROP IT LIKE ITS HOT ;PGet ready for another drop, you can see where price entered our zone and bounced... price has now re visited this again and now its kicking out time at the bar haha.
We are expecting price to make further movement to the downside after price has had a little bullish run to recover from the drop that happened the other day, our overall outlook is bearish on this anyway as stocks are weakening and so is the economy.
Jump on and thank us later... mine is a vodka and redbull ;p
Possible Bearish Abandoned Baby...This region has already proved itself as reversal territiory. Everytime there has been an obvious bearish candlestick reversal with clear exhausted spinning top formations. With today's gap up and lack of momentum so far, might this be the sign of a corrective movement down?
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2817 (78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and a strong drop might occur pushing price down to our major support at 2616 (38.2% fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SPX approaching resistance, potential drop! SPX is approaching our first resistance at 2817 (78.6% fibonacci retracement, 100% fibonacci extension, horizontal swing high resistance) and a strong drop might occur pushing price down to our major support at 2616 (38.2% fibonacci retracement).
Stochastic (89, 5, 3) is also approaching resistance and we might see a corresponding drop in price should it react off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SPX500 Diverging - Possible BIG SHORTSPX500 have been trading within a compressing bullish channel and almost reached the top of this channel. So far on the higher time frames Price is showing divergence signs, volume getting squeezed along with momentum weakness.
Pretty good evidence here so I am looking to short this market once it tests the top. Keep watching this market yourself as well.
Trade Safe!
Good Luck.