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S&P500 Rebound on the Golden Ratio +1st Bullish Cross since 2020The S&P500 index (SPX) is staging its first strong rebound since the pull-back started on the August 16 High, a correction that we projected with our analysis below: The downtrend has stopped on a hugely important Support cluster: * First and foremost, it hit and rebounded on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (orange one), which is technically known as the Golden Ratio. * Secondly, it hit and rebounded exactly on the Higher Lows trend-line that started on the June 16 Low. That is the second contact made since. * Thirdly, the 1D RSI hit and rebounded exactly on its 8-month Support Zone. Among those Support levels, we should not overlook the highly critical emerging formation of the 1D MA50/100 Bullish Cross. That is when the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is crossing above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is considered a technical bullish pattern. If crossed, it will be the first such pattern since the June 17 2020 formation, which was on the market recovery trend-line following the March 2020 COVID crash. So where do all the above leave us now? We cannot ignore the big Resistance Zone of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, that rejected the price on the Aug 16 top. Those are now exactly on top of each other and should be the first important test of the current rebound. A break/ candle close above them should target 4515 level, which is the 3rd Lower High of the downtrend that SPX needs to fill. As you see on the chart, the last two got filled and formed strong Resistance levels in August. At that point onwards, a re-test of the 1D MA200 as a Support, would fuel the uptrend to the All Time High test. Extra attention is needed though at this stage as if the price is rejected again on the 1D MA50, the rebound attempt may end and if the pull-back causes a 1D candle to close below the 0.618 Fib, then the June Low can be tested and with that the ultimate Support of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). Set your SLs exactly on the break-out points. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
4
SP500 is drawing a very nasty pictureAs the title says, SP500 is drawing a very nasty bearish picture. We can see from the posted chart, that after the low from mid-June, the index started to reverse, and once it has broken above 4100 horizontal resistance I was inclined to think that the correction that started at the beginning of the year is over. However, after it reached 4.3k zone resistance given by the descending trend line, instead of a small correction and resumption to the up move, the index has broken back under, a break marked by an immense 200 points bearish engulfing (around 5%). This type of price action is a clear indication that bears are not done yet and more losses are around the corner. At the time of writing, SP500 is trading at 3900, exactly in the confluence support zone and, in my opinion, this level will fall soon. In an optimistic scenario, a rebound can follow now, but this should be used as an opportunity to sell in anticipation of a break. The target can be the 3600 low, for now though... SP500 is very probable to drop under. P.S: Only sustained buying power above 4100 would change my bearish outlook
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
20
S&P500 These market dynamics show we're not in a Bear Market yetThis is a cross asset technical analysis on the S&P500 Index (SPX) on the 1M (monthly) time-frame. The symbols included are the Personal Savings Rate (orange trend-line), the Yield Curve Inversion (teal trend-line) and the % of Domestic Banks tightening (black trend-line). ** Personal Savings ** A little background info on what each symbol means. The Personal Savings Rate is the income left over after people spend money and pay taxes. In other words, it is the percentage of the disposable income that people save. ** Yield Curve Inversion ** The Bond Yield Curve Inversion is when the US02Y turns at a higher rate than the US10Y and the curve inversion occurs. The shorter term US02Y is associated with short-term Fed policy while the US10Y takes into account the longer-term growth aspects of the economy. When the curve is inverted it essentially tells us that the bond market expects the Fed to tighten too much relative to the growth. Practically when it bottoms and starts rising, it is an indication that the economy might be headed towards a recession. ** Domestic Banks tightening ** That shows the net percentage of domestic banks tightening standards for commercial and industrial loans to large and medium sized firms. This is also an economic growth indicator. ** Today's picture ** So basically what this chart shows is that since 1990, there have only been another 6 occasions of the above indicators forming the pattern we see today. That is a low Personal Savings Rate, Yield Rate Low and Bank tightening rising aggressively. - The first was during January 1995 and that was half-way through the 1990s rally that led to the 2000 DotCom Crash. - Second was in August 1998 , two years before the market top. - Third was in May 2000 at the peak of the DotCom Bubble. - Fourth was in September 2005 , half-way through the rally that led to the 2007/08 Housing Crash. - Fifth was in April 2016 , half-way through the incredible Bull Cycle we are at since the 2009 bottom and after the volatile months of the 2015 Grexit, China slowdown and 2016 Oil crisis. - Sixth was in August 2019 , right after the market had recovered from the U.S.-China trade war. The common characteristic on all the above phases besides the the (third) 2000 peak, was that SPX was under heavy volatility, having sizeable pull-backs. Given that we already had a correction since Jan 2022 of almost 25%, this historical dataset shows that it is currently more likely that this pull-back is either in the middle or 2 years before a major recession. Of course recessions can't be predicted with 100% accuracy and as long as central banks are accommodative, Bull Cycles can be maintained, but this dataset is a fair guideline to where the stock market might be at relative to its Cycle stages. Do you think this was a much needed correction and the market will resume its multi-year Bull Cycle or we are at the first stages of a Recession? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
6
S&P500 Outlook on 1H and 1D. The 0.618 Fib is the key.It is 2 weeks ago that we posted the potential correction on the S&P500 (SPX) index after the price got rejection on the 1D MA200: ** 1D time-frame ** Today's analysis looks into the price action both from a 1H (left chart) and a 1D (right chart) time-frame perspective. As you see on 1D, the price hit yesterday the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and assisted by today's NFP news, it rebounded back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This caused high volatility in the market and unless the 1D MA50 breaks, we can't expect any further buying pressure. ** 1H time-frame ** The 1D MA50 is practically on the 4020 Resistance set by the August 31 Highs. That takes us to the 1H time-frame (left) where we've set some short-term break-out levels. A break above the Resistance, should be taken as a buy signal targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (4140), while a break below the 3902 Support, should be considered as a bearish break-out signal targeting the Lower Lows trend-line of August. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 got rejected as expected. Now testing the first Support.The S&P500 index (SPX) had a strong rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which we caught on the exact spot with our trading idea below 10 days ago: The timing on this projection couldn't have been better, with early signs of a possible pull-back obvious as the Overbought 1D RSI has always been a trigger for technical pull-backs ever since 2019! This is something we analyzed extensively on that analysis above, so if you want to get more insight on it, click on the idea chart. Friday saw the strongest 1-day pull-back of this selling sequence and broke below the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well as the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level and today the index hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) just above the 0.5 Fib level. As mentioned on the previous analysis, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times. If it holds, a re-test of the 1D MA200 and the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, which is the top of the 2022 Bearish Megaphone, is possible but unless it breaks, a new Low on the 0.618 Fib is likely. Only a candle close above the Lower Highs trend-line should be capable of extending this strong rally since June. As mentioned on the previous analysis, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Two factors that strengthen the chances of a bullish break-out is that this time (as opposed to the previous Megaphone Lower High rejection), 1) the MACD on the 1W chart is on a Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021 and 2) the 1D MA50 is close to crossing above the 1D MA100, which would be the first such Bullish Cross since June 16 2020 that was at the start of a 1 year and a half rally (see charts below): -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
2
S&P500 seeking two Support levels for the next leg upwards.The S&P500 Index (SPX) had a perfect rejection on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), exactly after our analysis last week: As you see, the rejection was not just on the 1D MA200 but also on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, essentially the Lower Highs trend-line starting from the All Time High (ATH). As we mentioned on that previous analysis, the rejection took place once the 1D RSI broke into the Overbought Territory. We made a good case that in the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. But if the pattern since the ATH is a Bearish Megaphone, what gives the impression that it may be the first rally into a new Bull Phase? Well as you see on the snapshot below, the MACD on the 1W time-frame rose after a huge Bullish Cross, the first since November 05 2021. Also the 1W RSI broke above its Nov 19 2021 Lower Highs trend-line and made a high above the previous Lower High of April 01. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. Also keep an eye on the RSI symmetrical Support Zone after Overbought rejections, for clues on where the price may rebound. We already broke inside it. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 All time High trend-line is rejecting the uptrend!The S&P500 index (SPX) hit 3 days ago the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and got rejected. But perhaps an even more important development than that is the fact that this rejection also took place on the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line, practically the Resistance trend-line that started from the All Time High (ATH). We've been talking about the important of this trend-line since the March 29 Lower High but more recently warned you about on our July 27 analysis, where we gave the 2nd major break-out buy signal of the June rally: As you see, the 1D MA200 happens to be almost exactly where the 1W MA50 is, making it a major Resistance. The bearish sentiment gets even stronger, if we take a look at the 1D RSI, which is being rejected after breaking into the +70.00 Overbought Territory last Friday. In the recent past however, such RSI overbought breaks, have proved to be only short-term index price rejections and technical pull-backs mostly attributed to profit taking. After all, since the June 16 Low, the S&P500 has rallied almost +19%, the biggest non-pullback rally since September 02 2020! Just a reminder, we accurately captured the exact start of this mega rally with our analysis on June 20: To be more precise, since 2019 such rejections on overbought 1D RSI levels have resulted into 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) tests 5 times, 1D MA100 (green trend-line) tests 1 time and 1D MA200 tests 2 times (but when price action was much more flat and of course we were not into such a high inflation correction). Scroll the chart to the left to see those. Currently the 1D MA100 is trading towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level from the Aug 16 High, while the 1D MA50 on the 0.5 Fib. If this is indeed the first rally of a new long-term Bull Phase, those are the Support levels to consider. In the event of a 1D MA200 break-out, we would ideally like to see a break above the 0.618 Fib (from the January 04 ATH), as this is the Golden Ratio. In both cases, the risk is very low being so close to the 1D MA200 and the Jan Lower Highs trend-line, so if you are a short-term trader, manage your trades accordingly. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
1
SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down SPX flagging, there is a good setup for a good size gap down tomorrow. Again has to gap down below 4255-57SPX to mark the top being in place (reference to March topping pattern) If we gap down to 4189-4207SPX (the bottom of the channel) and hold it early from the open, then I will go long for a move up into the close. If this is what will play out, then we should re-test 4308.50-23 on Monday with a gap up and crap. So must watch number for tomorrow is 4189-4207. Must gap down below 4255 to have this setup more probable! Some good setups are coming, just need to be patient. Maj resistance is at 4308.5SPX on closing level.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
26
S&P500 closed above the 1W MA100. Last step before a +23% rally?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed its last 1W (weekly) candle above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since May. This has been part of a very strong rally that started after the mid June low. The 1W MA100 has been instrumental in recent decades at deciding whether the index enters a Bear Market or resumes the Bull Market. As you see on this 1W time-frame chart, during the 2001/02 and 2008/09 Bear Cycles, S&P500 failed to break above the 1W MA100 upon a rebound test (January 2001 and May 2008) and eventually got rejected in a Bear Market. In fact in May 2008 the rejection was more clear on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is currently the Resistance level that the index is testing this week. If it fails here again, we can get a repeat of those Bear Cycles, where the price dipped -44.40% and 52.60% respectively from the 1W MA100 rejections. A -52% sell-off would put the index exactly where the 1M MA200 (red trend-line) is right now (around 2100). On the other hand, every other time that the SPX broke above the 1W MA100 and successfully held it, the price rallied (from the level of break-out) in the coming months/ years from a minimum of +23% (February 2019 - February 2020) to a maximum of +80% (October 2011 - June 2015) before it ran into another market top. In today's terms, that would be a minimum of 5100 (+23%) and a maximum of 7450 (+80%) from last week's 1W MA100 break-out point. Which scenario do you think it's going to be? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
8
SPX quick updateNothing much I can add, but few things: Lots of evidence of the market hitting the ceiling - SPX is at 61.8 fib retracement, very important to watch - Added a trendline off Feb 2020 and Sep 2020 highs, we are right at the resistance zone. - Main target (4308-30) is getting close to hit with no 4th wave pullback but relentless grind in a C wave up. - Weekly bullish reversal is only at 4385SPX on closing level, we are not going to hit it today. - Daily is at 4308, same as the main target, also a gap to fill. - MACD, RSI, Stoch etc are all in overbought territory, can last for several days more to hit that 4308+ target - We have 9 gaps on the downside left, I expect those to get fill in Sep/Oct - VIX is giving another long signal and sell to equities, need to watch the close below the Bollinger band to confirm Im only day trading and have few ES under the water I m holding. Will be short over the weekend with NQ, especially if we reverse into the close and close below the highs. My internet is still very bad and technicians are only coming tomorrow end of the day, cant trade much in this environment but using my cell data for small trades
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
4
S&P500 Short-term perspectiveThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading sideways practically since July 29 and as it failed to break the May 30 High and current Resistance (in fact got rejected near it on August 08), it broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Even though the index had broken above its long-term Channel Down on 1D, on the shorter-term such as the 4H time-frame, there are some additional angles to consider before achieving higher targets. As this chart shows, the 4H RSI has formed a Channel Down while the price traded sideways, struggling to break above the May Resistance. The very same structure was also seen from May 30 to June 08. The bearish RSI made the sideways index trend break below the 4H MA50 and after a dead-cat-bounce, it sold-off aggressively. This time though, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) isn't coming from above the 4H MA50 but is instead below it, ready to provide the crucial Support. In the same notion, the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), which already gave a price bounce on July 26. On any given moment, a break above the May Resistance would be a bullish break-out signal targeting the 1D MA200 (yellow trend-line) for the first time since April 21. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
4
S&P500 hit the top of its 7 month Channel. CAUTION.The S&P500 index (SPX) has reached the top of the Channel Down pattern that started on the January market high. This has completed our medium-term buy strategy on the Lower Low that we published 40 days ago: The Channel Down had to be adjusted slightly to fit the latest Lower Low and by doing so, it has brought the Lower High trend-line exactly where the price got rejected yesterday. This makes it a strong candidate for a medium-term top. The 1D RSI is also printing the very same peak formation. A tight SL sell on yesterday's High offers a great Risk/ Reward ratio, where we can target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the short-term and the 3740 Support on the medium-term. This needs to be tight as a break above yesterday's High can be enough to invalidate this 7 month Channel Down so in that case we will reverse to buys again, targeting the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), where the 0.618 Fibonacci level happens to be as well. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
SP500- I expect a drop to supportIn my previous SP500 analysis I said that the index could rise above the 4k figure and reach the next important resistance zone and, indeed, after it broke above the falling trend line and the horizontal support it accelerated gains and reached my target. Now, although the rise from the recent bottom looks pretty bullish for the medium term, this 10% growth needs a correction. From a technical point of view, as I said, we are facing strong resistance and the overall trend, which started this year, is not yet clearly bullish In conclusion, selling around this zone can be a good strategy with a great R: R if we target 3.9k support
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
22
SPX weekend update Im slightly short as of Fri close, not planning to hold for long, looking at other day to get in with swings. Notes from the chart: 4308.5SPX is the main resistances now (must hold for continuation lower) Resistance - 4158.50, 4160.2, 4177.60, 4168.80 (Maj) SPX - Low target for tomorrow 4052, 4027 and Main support 4012SPX - Buy if seen in am, don't buy if we see higher first - 3910 and 3943 are the maj support zone now Buy zone for tomorrow with stops! - 4012, 4027.50SPX - 4000 must hold on any try or it falls apart and will get 50MA tested Short - 4154-60SPX, no short above 4175, going to 4216-25 - Low (intraday) was on Jun 17th; - No current long position, only short Old pathway still can be in play: - rally for a week or 2 back to 4150-4205 SPX (we are here now), retest of 3890SPX or 3830by Mid Aug and then main target of 4330+ and possible 4425+ summer time - Ideally extend to 4425SPX (4300 main resistance on the way up) summer rally target - 110MA After revising my chart, there is a high chance we are in a 5 wave down pathway with 4 being almost over. Larger ABC pathway down into Sep/Oct low as being just an A wave, B wave up to Jan high and C down to Apr low Potential 5 waves down is forming! Next mid Jun low can be lower low! Came as a main low and possible 5 wave down is over and we are in a B wave up Additional to add: We did hit 110MA on Fri high and retraced, that target alone can be enough for this move and the price doesn't have to test 200MA in case of a serious bear trend. There are 2 downtrend channels, either of them can be in play, those are visual on my chart. - We have a high volatility going into the 4th Aug - As well as from the 8th of Aug to 15th. I'm expecting at least a temp high on the 1st or the 3rd, if was not hit on Fri . Low mid month and another advance into the week of 29th on neg div . After that expect a huge move down and my targets as of now are 3430 and 3455. There is a Fib fan confluence at the same levels I really don't want to see lower, as if that happens,then we could be in a 5 waves structure into Q1 of 2023 instead of ABC move down.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
5
S&P500 Huge buy signal on 1W. As early as it can possibly get.The S&P500 index (SPX) is close to printing the biggest buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame after the completion of this week. This is actually a combination of formation that, at least in the recent 4 years, when printed in this order, they established great buy opportunities as early as possible into a rally towards new All Time Highs (ATH). First and foremost, the index is close to a Bullish Cross on the 1W time-frame and that will be the first such occurrence since the November 01 2021 weekly candle. What's more relevant though, is that the last time we had this formed below the 0.0 level was on the May 11 2020 candle, which was after the market bottom of the March 2020 COVID crash and still at the beginning of the 2020/21 mega rally. Before that we had a MACD Bullish Cross below 0.0 on the January 28 2019 1W candle, when the market was recovering after the U.S. - China trade war tensions. In addition, last week the index broke and closed above the 1D MA50 (red trend-line on this chart) for the first time since March. As shown on the chart since 2018, in the three times the price broke above the 1D MA50 while a 1W MACD Bullish Cross followed shortly, that was always the start of a rally to a new All Time High. In the case of 2019 and 2020 particularly, the index reached the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) three and six weeks respectively after the 1D MA50 break. As a result that can be as early as the first week of September with the 1W MA50 currently trading at 4354 and declining. It is also important to mention that all such bullish signals were formed with the price always above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently the Support. Also, along with last week's 1D MA50 break, the index broke above the Lower Highs trend-line (1) that started on the March High and was exactly on the 1D MA50. Interestingly enough, the next and final Lower Highs trend-line (2) of the January High happens to be almost parallel with the 1W MA50. As a result if we break above it, again it will be a double Resistance bullish break-out and most likely will restore completely the long-term bullish sentiment to the market. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
14
S&P500 Holding the Lower Bollinger. Not in a Bear Market yet.This is a simple S&P500 (SPX) analysis on the 1M (monthly) time-frame showing the Bollinger Bands and RSi indicators. Last month the price approached the Lower Bollinger Band to the closest level since April 2020. It held and July has so far been a strong green candle. As you see, we've had monthly breaks of the Lower Bollinger but no candle closes below it, more specifically Jan-Feb 2016, Dec 2018 and March-April 2020. The market continued its long-term Bull Cycle to new market Highs each time. In recent history, it was only when we had a montly candle closing below the Lower Bollinger (June 2008 and Feb 2001) that we got a confirmed break into a Bear Cycle. At the time of those closings, the 1M RSI was within 44.20 - 40.00. June almost hit that level but held and is seen rebounding. Do you agree with this chart showing that we are not in a Bear Cycle yet? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SP:SPX
by TradingShot
2
SP500 can rise back above 4kThe end of last week was a good one for stocks with a Pin Bar reversal on Thursday and a strong bullish day on Friday(also the weekly candle is a Pin Bar) At this moment SP500 is facing a confluence of resistances given by the horizontal 3900 and the falling trend line and a break above these could lead to further gains above 4k and to the next resistance at 4090. I'm bullish this index and I'm looking to buy dips. A drop under 3700 would negate this scenario
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by Mihai_Iacob
2
S&P500 Test of 4HMA50. Kept Support but many Resistances above.The S&P500 index has been trading mostly sideways since the June 27 High. The pattern that stands out during that time is a Triangle, with the price keeping (and rebounding since yesterday on) the 3750 Support intact (closed all 4H candles above it). The top of the Triangle involves a Lower Highs trend-line, approximately on the same path of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) that already has two clear rejections on the patterns Lower Highs. At the moment the price is testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and naturally if broken a 4H MA200 test should follow. There are many Resistance levels up ahead, even if we close above the 4H MA200, we need to consider the Resistance strength of the 0.618-0.786 Fibonacci zones of the Channel Down (remember it is the dominant pattern throughout the whole year when the correction started). The short-term strategy is to take one Resistance at a time and target the higher levels only if we get a clear 4H candle closing above the current Resistance at hand. In the same notion, a break above the Channel Down, which is approximately where the 0.382 Fib is, targets the 0.618 level at around 4320. Similarly a closing below the 3750 Support, targets the 0.236 Fibonacci level. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 about to test the 1D MA50 for 1st time since AprilThe S&P500 index (SPX) has completed three straight green 1D candles and is approaching the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for a test that would be its first since April 21. This idea is basically a continuation of out analysis posted two weeks ago, exactly at the bottom (Lower Low) of the Channel Down: With the markets anticipating favorable NFP numbers today, the index is well on its way to repeat the March rise to a new Channel Down Lower High. That sequence topped a little over the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level but if repeated, that would push the price above the Channel around 4320, which is also approximately where the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is. Based on the 1D RSI pattern of the same sequence, we are exactly at the point before the 1D MA50 break-out. If you followed us on the bottom call, you may book the profit and re-engage either if the 1D MA50 breaks or upon a pull-back. In either case, the technical Lower High and target should not exceed 4100. The invalidation of this pattern will come only with a weekly closing below the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), in which case we may see a rapid sell-off towards the 1M MA100. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
1