S&P500 entering the buy zone againPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 1D MA50 - 1D MA100 buy zone again. The 1D RSI is on the (Support) similar level that it was on the Jan 29, March 04 and May 12 bottoms.
Target: 4350 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
Previous S&P500 idea:
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Spxsignals
S&P500 First Buy Signal (medium-term).Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price completed a -3% pull-back. Second buy signal when it completes a -6% pull-back as since December every -3% to -6% correction was followed by a rally. Also the MACD hit its 1st Support.
Target: 4300 (slightly below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel).
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BTC and S&P How accurate is "Sell in May and go away"?Tomorrow is the last day of the April. Every year at the start of May investing and trading forums are flooded with the old street saying of "Sell in May and go away", especially from sellers who are already deep into short positions. But how accurate is this saying for Bitcoin and S&P500 in particular.
A simple display of both on the monthly (1M candle) chart quickly provides the answer:
* Bitcoin has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 7 times since May 2011.
* S&P500 has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 9 times since May 2009.
It becomes easily obvious that the "Sell in May and go away" saying is just a "myth". Do not get stuck trading entirely based on this. Both BTC and S&P simply follow their greater cyclical trend phases even during Mays and the argument that big institutions, fund managers, and/ or investors sell everything in May and go for vacation is dangerous.
For S&P in particular there hasn't been a drop on or right after May since 2015! And the fact that since the 2008 Subprime mortgage crisis we only had 3 bearish May candles, completely smashes the argument.
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S&P500 may drop -3% to -6%.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and since December 21, 2020, every time the index broke below the 4H MA50 it dropped even lower to (or below) the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: Anywhere within a -3% to -6% from the recent High. -3% has more chances as as 3 out of 5 MA50 breaks resulted in a -3% drop.
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S&P500 Bearish Signals forming on 4HPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Sell as the MACD made a Bearish Cross after the (orange) uptrend Channel broke sideways, in a move similar to February 10 and March 12.
Target: 3970 (below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as per the previous similar fractals). If the 4H MACD breaks -15.00 then you may extend the selling as low as the MACD Support Zone or just above the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line).
On the longer-term the trend remains bullish until the greater pattern is invalidated and as suggested by the most recent S&P500 signal shown below, it is safer to buy those Megaphone 4H MA100 pull-backs:
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S&P500 The 4H MA50 is the keyPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: (A) Buy if after the 4H MA50 break-out (blue trend-line), the level holds (as on Feb 02 - 04). If it doesn't, (B) sell towards the lower (-) Fibonacci extensions (as on March 01 - March 04).
Target: (A) The 0.5 Fib (rough estimate 4040). (B) The -1.5 Fib (rough estimate 3800).
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S&P500 Strong MA Support Zone belowThe 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D MA50 (green dots) have recently provided rebounds on S&P500 more often than not, acting as a Support Zone.
As you see on the chart those happen to be also on key horizontal Support levels (3900 - 3860). With the 4H RSI making contact with its parabolic line, it is possible that the index is nearing a Support that will provide at least a short-term rebound. Use the Higher Highs line for a potential Target.
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S&P a scary fractalThe current Channel on S&P500 has reached the Top (1.0) of the Pitchfan on the 1D time-frame while the RSI is on a Bearish Divergence. As you see on the chart, every time a similar pattern has occurred, the hard Pitchfan trend-line (1.0 or the median) rejected the price and SPX broke even way below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Is this "fractal of doom" something to consider?
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S&P500 Bullish Break-outPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the inner Lower Highs trend-line and is turning the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The RSI is on a Bullish Divergence.
Target: 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension ).
Previous S&P signal:
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RSI bullish divergencePattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a bottoming Lower Lows sequence similar to that of January 29.
Target: 4020 - 4050 (the zone around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 A buy Signal from the RSI and MACDPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as every time the MACD made a Bullish Cross, while the RSI had already hit its 4 month Support Zone, the index rose and made a new High. Last confirmation will be to close one session above the 4H MA50, which has previously been a mid-term Resistance within that Channel prior to a new High.
Target: 4000 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which has been an accurate metric of the next Higher High since December).
Most recent S&P500 signal:
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S&P500 has the potential to reach 4250 inside FebruaryPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the MACD has formed a Bullish Cross last Thursday.
Target: 4000 (short-term) and 4250 (medium-term).
Most recent S&P500 idea:
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S&P500 Buy conditionsPattern: Channel Up into a Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Buy either after a pull-back within the 0.382-0.618 Fibonacci is completed (because the 4H MACD is close to forming a Bearish Cross) or if the 3870 Resistance breaks first.
Target: 3940 (top of the pattern).
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Gold-Copper Ratio, (very) LONG; This WAS the top of equities ...... most likely.
Let's reason for a second. (Despite all the noise out there.)
The title chart is the Monthly Gold/Copper Ratio, e.g. is very powerful. (It does not tend to turn on a dime!)
This has just completed the month of Jan. 2021.
1) It has finished the month by completing a Bullish Hammer, bouncing off of the (very) round number / level of 500;
2) It did so exactly at the 78% retracement of the March 2020 highs - i.e. Pandemic equity lows;
Then, instead of continuing down (equities continuing to rally) it did turn "on a dime" and finished in a Bullish Hammer - raring to go higher, i.e. equities lower.
3) As of this moment, the above picture, provides one with two distinct possibilities.
a) That massive (Monthly!!) Bearish Deep Crab is going to bear down it's target at the - very - round 1000, e.g. sending the SP500, Dow and Nasdaq to a better than >65% Decline; (Most likely!)
b) This ratio is going to trace back, close to the March, 2020 highs - Pandemic Equity lows - where it's going to reverse and rise, once again. I.e. The test of the March, 2020 equity lows are going to hold.
Either way, the significant take away here is this;
Unless these most recent Equity Index highs are taken out very soon - e.g. with this next month - Equities are headed strait to test the March, 2020 lows, where the obvious question remains: Will those hold?
Have a nice day and stay short equities!
Here is the Weekly chart;
S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke again below the 4H MA50, which has been a buy signal since November 19. Also the RSI is near its 3 month Support Zone. Potential bottom on the 4H MA200, so use two buy positions.
Target: 3910 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension assuming 3795 was the bottom. If the bottom is closer to the 4H MA200, the Fib extension will be around 3935).
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S&P aiming for 4070 - 4200 by MarchPurely RSI and Fibonacci extension based analysis. As you see since the March bottom every Higher High is on a higher Fib extension (0.382, 0.618). Similarly, the Higher Lows have so far followed a 0.382, 0.5, 0.618 Fibonacci retracement sequence.
The RSI is currently trading sideways since mid November. In the previous two Fib cycles, this RSI consolidation came before the new Higher High. Assuming this sequence is extended, then S&P should soon make its new Higher High within the -0.786 - 1.000 Fibonacci zone, which is within 4070 - 4200.
Most recent S&P signal:
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US Market Technicals Ahead (11 Jan – 15 Jan 2021)Market will likely be focusing on the prospects for a bigger stimulus package after Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy shed jobs for the first time in eight months in December amid a resurgence of Covid-19 infections. A further snapshot of how the economy is performing will be presented with upcoming Friday’s release of data on inflation and retail sales.
Additionally, earnings season will get underway with major US banks set to release fourth quarter earnings results on Friday.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) continued with a 3rd consecutive week of rally, closing with a modest gain of +1.83% (68.6 points) for the opening week of 2021. This rally have continued to establish a new all time high level at 3,826 points, also breaking out of a 9 weeks trend channel congestion that was highlighted over the weeks.
With plenty of eutrophic moves in highly speculative themes over the past weeks (i.e. Electric Vehicles, Bitcoin, Alternative Energy and Biotechnology), there were observation that some of the previously market-leading mega cap companies are not in participation of the week’s rally. Several of the higher profile companies, particularly the FAANG, remain either in a consolidated triangle chart pattern, or a box ranged rectangular chart pattern. Additionally, $SPX traded lower on the first two days of the year, with the month long highest sessional volume observed on Tuesday alone.
At the current junction, the 20DMA have been nicely supporting $SPX in rally since 4th November 2020. The significance of 20DMA towards $SPX daily current price action is also observed in the various rebound highlighted in the chart (arrow), particularly thrice in December 2020 and once in January 2021. There is also a significant pick up in trading volume since the start of 2021, and it is imminent for market volatility to further uptick towards a 50 points ATR14 range within the next two weeks.
The immediate support to watch for any potential weaknesses is at 3,780 level, a confirmation retracement for Friday’s Bearish Hanging Man candlestick pattern.
Top 3 things to watch this week:
1. Stimulus hopes
Stocks closed at record highs on Friday, despite data showing the U.S. economy suffered its first net loss of jobs in eight months in December, after Biden said his economic relief package will be in the trillions of dollars.
Biden said his administration’s economic package will also include unemployment insurance and rent forbearance. The package is due to be unveiled on Thursday.
2. Economic data, Fed speakers
The U.S. is due to release data on consumer price inflation on Wednesday, while retail sales figures for December are due out on Friday. Inflation is expected to tick slightly higher, but remain subdued, while retail sales are expected to have been dampened by the surging virus.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is to speak on Thursday. The U.S. central bank has indicated that interest rates will remain on hold near zero through at least 2023 and said the path of the economy will depend significantly on the course of the virus.
3. Banks kick off earnings
Big banks will kick off the U.S. corporate earnings season in earnest with JPMorgan (NYSE: $JPM), Citigroup (NYSE :$C) and Wells Fargo (NYSE: $WFC) posting fourth-quarter results on Friday – the first S&P 500 companies to report for the last quarter of coronavirus-stricken 2020.
Some investors expect company earnings and economic data to play a greater role in moving stock prices this year.
S&P500 aims at 3800Pattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy (a) if the MACD makes a Bullish Cross (every prior 1D Bullish Cross has delivered an extreme rise), or (b) if the RSI approaches its Higher Lows trend-line.
Target: (a) 3880, (b) 3800
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S&P500 preparing an end of the year rally to 3780SPX continues to trade within the Channel Up that I previously spotted and right now the keys are a certain Fibonacci sequence as well as the MACD formation on the 4H time-frame.
As you see the MACD is printing a similar formation with November 23 - 26. That was when S&P500 made its aggressive Bullish Leg from 3545 to 3655. It made its top on the -0.1 Fibonacci extension then pulled back to the 0.382 Fib retracement and took some time to price a Higher High on the -0.618 Fib extension.
If the same pattern is repeated, then the price could pull back seeking support within the 4H MA50 and 0.382 Fib and then rise to the -0.618 extension which is around 3790. That would set up S&P on a nice end-of-the-year rally.
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