S&P500 Buy Signal entering the 4H IchimokuPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price has hit the 4H Ichimoku Cloud with the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red dotted line) right below, while the RSI reached the June 03 low.
Target: 4280 (top of the Channel Up) and if the Higher Highs trend-line breaks, then extension to 4340 (2.0 Fibonacci extension).
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Spxsignals
S&P500 Triangle about to breakPattern: Triangle on 4H.
Signal: Buy as long as the Higher Lows trend-line holds.
Target: 4400 (just below the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, similar to the March 31 break-out).
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SPY (S&P 500) BULLISH until July/August ELLIOTT WAVE THEORYThe S&P500 ( SPY ) has seen lots of sideways price action and consolidation for the past few weeks or so, but I believe that we could be seeing an impulsive break-out in the near future. This would form the impulsive wave 3 of a final wave 5 push to the upside before the bear markets kick in around the summertime months (July-August).
We will need to see confirmation of a bullish break-out to know that we have entered an impulse wave to the upside. If SPY can break-out over 421-422 (heavy resistance levels), targets of 430+ are very achievable as denoted in the charts. A possible explanation for the recent lack of volume and price direction could be due to the fact that meme stocks ( AMC , GME , BB, BBBY , WKHS , etc.) have taken over the market and soaked up buying interest. Once buying power gets re-directed back into S&P500 stocks, we should see some bullish momentum that is needed to kickstart the impulse wave to the upside.
S&P500 Fractal showing $4255 as targetBoth in terms of RSI/ MACD and the way the price trades on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 4H MA100 (green trend-line), S&P500 appears to be replicating the late April - early May fractal. After a bottom on the Support, the price rebounded just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension. That is currently just below 4270. I believe that following tomorrow's Nonfarm Payrolls, as similar price spike will occur.
Most recent S&P500 analysis:
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S&P500 Fractal signalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy on the next 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level pull-back.
Target: 4350 short-term (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension) and 4450 long-term (the 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
Most recent S&P idea:
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S&P500 entering the buy zone againPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the price entered the 1D MA50 - 1D MA100 buy zone again. The 1D RSI is on the (Support) similar level that it was on the Jan 29, March 04 and May 12 bottoms.
Target: 4350 (the 1.5 Fibonacci extension).
Previous S&P500 idea:
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S&P500 First Buy Signal (medium-term).Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price completed a -3% pull-back. Second buy signal when it completes a -6% pull-back as since December every -3% to -6% correction was followed by a rally. Also the MACD hit its 1st Support.
Target: 4300 (slightly below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension of the Channel).
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BTC and S&P How accurate is "Sell in May and go away"?Tomorrow is the last day of the April. Every year at the start of May investing and trading forums are flooded with the old street saying of "Sell in May and go away", especially from sellers who are already deep into short positions. But how accurate is this saying for Bitcoin and S&P500 in particular.
A simple display of both on the monthly (1M candle) chart quickly provides the answer:
* Bitcoin has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 7 times since May 2011.
* S&P500 has dropped either on or right after May 3 times, while it rose 9 times since May 2009.
It becomes easily obvious that the "Sell in May and go away" saying is just a "myth". Do not get stuck trading entirely based on this. Both BTC and S&P simply follow their greater cyclical trend phases even during Mays and the argument that big institutions, fund managers, and/ or investors sell everything in May and go for vacation is dangerous.
For S&P in particular there hasn't been a drop on or right after May since 2015! And the fact that since the 2008 Subprime mortgage crisis we only had 3 bearish May candles, completely smashes the argument.
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S&P500 may drop -3% to -6%.Pattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Sell as the price broke below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and since December 21, 2020, every time the index broke below the 4H MA50 it dropped even lower to (or below) the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Target: Anywhere within a -3% to -6% from the recent High. -3% has more chances as as 3 out of 5 MA50 breaks resulted in a -3% drop.
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S&P500 Bearish Signals forming on 4HPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Sell as the MACD made a Bearish Cross after the (orange) uptrend Channel broke sideways, in a move similar to February 10 and March 12.
Target: 3970 (below the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) as per the previous similar fractals). If the 4H MACD breaks -15.00 then you may extend the selling as low as the MACD Support Zone or just above the 1D MA100 (yellow trend-line).
On the longer-term the trend remains bullish until the greater pattern is invalidated and as suggested by the most recent S&P500 signal shown below, it is safer to buy those Megaphone 4H MA100 pull-backs:
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S&P500 The 4H MA50 is the keyPattern: Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: (A) Buy if after the 4H MA50 break-out (blue trend-line), the level holds (as on Feb 02 - 04). If it doesn't, (B) sell towards the lower (-) Fibonacci extensions (as on March 01 - March 04).
Target: (A) The 0.5 Fib (rough estimate 4040). (B) The -1.5 Fib (rough estimate 3800).
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S&P500 Strong MA Support Zone belowThe 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1D MA50 (green dots) have recently provided rebounds on S&P500 more often than not, acting as a Support Zone.
As you see on the chart those happen to be also on key horizontal Support levels (3900 - 3860). With the 4H RSI making contact with its parabolic line, it is possible that the index is nearing a Support that will provide at least a short-term rebound. Use the Higher Highs line for a potential Target.
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S&P a scary fractalThe current Channel on S&P500 has reached the Top (1.0) of the Pitchfan on the 1D time-frame while the RSI is on a Bearish Divergence. As you see on the chart, every time a similar pattern has occurred, the hard Pitchfan trend-line (1.0 or the median) rejected the price and SPX broke even way below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Is this "fractal of doom" something to consider?
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S&P500 Bullish Break-outPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke above the inner Lower Highs trend-line and is turning the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into Support. The RSI is on a Bullish Divergence.
Target: 4,040 long-term (the 1.382 Fibonacci extension ).
Previous S&P signal:
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RSI bullish divergencePattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price made a bottoming Lower Lows sequence similar to that of January 29.
Target: 4020 - 4050 (the zone around the 1.382 Fibonacci extension).
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S&P500 A buy Signal from the RSI and MACDPattern: Fibonacci Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as every time the MACD made a Bullish Cross, while the RSI had already hit its 4 month Support Zone, the index rose and made a new High. Last confirmation will be to close one session above the 4H MA50, which has previously been a mid-term Resistance within that Channel prior to a new High.
Target: 4000 (just below the 1.382 Fibonacci extension which has been an accurate metric of the next Higher High since December).
Most recent S&P500 signal:
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S&P500 has the potential to reach 4250 inside FebruaryPattern: Channel Up on 1D.
Signal: Buy as the MACD has formed a Bullish Cross last Thursday.
Target: 4000 (short-term) and 4250 (medium-term).
Most recent S&P500 idea:
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S&P500 Buy conditionsPattern: Channel Up into a Bullish Megaphone.
Signal: Buy either after a pull-back within the 0.382-0.618 Fibonacci is completed (because the 4H MACD is close to forming a Bearish Cross) or if the 3870 Resistance breaks first.
Target: 3940 (top of the pattern).
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Gold-Copper Ratio, (very) LONG; This WAS the top of equities ...... most likely.
Let's reason for a second. (Despite all the noise out there.)
The title chart is the Monthly Gold/Copper Ratio, e.g. is very powerful. (It does not tend to turn on a dime!)
This has just completed the month of Jan. 2021.
1) It has finished the month by completing a Bullish Hammer, bouncing off of the (very) round number / level of 500;
2) It did so exactly at the 78% retracement of the March 2020 highs - i.e. Pandemic equity lows;
Then, instead of continuing down (equities continuing to rally) it did turn "on a dime" and finished in a Bullish Hammer - raring to go higher, i.e. equities lower.
3) As of this moment, the above picture, provides one with two distinct possibilities.
a) That massive (Monthly!!) Bearish Deep Crab is going to bear down it's target at the - very - round 1000, e.g. sending the SP500, Dow and Nasdaq to a better than >65% Decline; (Most likely!)
b) This ratio is going to trace back, close to the March, 2020 highs - Pandemic Equity lows - where it's going to reverse and rise, once again. I.e. The test of the March, 2020 equity lows are going to hold.
Either way, the significant take away here is this;
Unless these most recent Equity Index highs are taken out very soon - e.g. with this next month - Equities are headed strait to test the March, 2020 lows, where the obvious question remains: Will those hold?
Have a nice day and stay short equities!
Here is the Weekly chart;
S&P500 Buy SignalPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price broke again below the 4H MA50, which has been a buy signal since November 19. Also the RSI is near its 3 month Support Zone. Potential bottom on the 4H MA200, so use two buy positions.
Target: 3910 (the 1.618 Fibonacci extension assuming 3795 was the bottom. If the bottom is closer to the 4H MA200, the Fib extension will be around 3935).
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