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S&P and GOLD during the subprime crisis. Will history repeat?This is not a trading advice, just something interesting I want to discuss with you all. A lot of analysts claim that the COVID outbreak will put global economies into recession and that we are at the beginning of a Crisis similar to the 2007/08 Subprime Crisis. Gold has been the standard of "Store of Value" and one of the biggest winners of 2019 as well as 2020 (thus far). If we are in a "Subprime like" crisis on stocks, what are the implications for a safe-haven like Gold? ** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** Looking at S&P's 1W chart we can find a relation (so far) as following the late-February/ early March 2020 crash, the market broke below the MA50 but recovered and is at the moment testing it as a Resistance. Similar to what happened in April 2008. At the same time Gold had a disappointing March as it was sold off aggressively along with the stock crash. Contrary to S&P, it found support on its 1W MA50 and has been rebounding since (making also a new marginal High). Similar to what happened in April/ May 2008 (with the exception that it almost touched its High). During the Subprime Crisis both S&P and Gold collapsed to new lows; S&P brutally erased the gains of +10 years while Gold even though it broke below its 1W MA50, it only marginally broke its 12-month lows. So if history repeats itself and S&P tanks during the COVID crisis, will Gold break its 1W MA50 but respect its 12-month support? It will surely put its attribute as "safe haven" to test! Do you agree that if the 2007/08 crisis is repeated Gold will pull back even by that much on an asset-wide liquidation event, or will firmly hold its 2019/2020 gains? Any other scenarios you want to discuss? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community!
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
13
The S&P MARCH MADNESS in recessions & why May breaks the party!You thought that only the NCAA is entitled to a "March Madness"? Guess again. This chart shows that during recessions (the 2000 and 2008 Bubbles in particular), the S&P index makes a counter-trend rally in March that lasts for 2 months and sees an end in May. ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** As you see during the 2000 Dotcom Bubble, the price started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2001 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2001, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started. During the 2008 subprime mortgage Bubble, the price also started to decline, broke the MA50 on the monthly (1M) chart on March 2008 and started a counter-trend rally. In May 2008, the rally topped near the 1M MA20 and then a new more aggressive collapse started. Right now (during the COVID-19 crisis), the index crossed the 1M MA50 on March (2020) and has been (counter?) rallying since. We are in May (which has been the turning point during the past 2 recessions) and already the volatility is high. As you see, the MACD has been also printing a similar "topping" pattern to the previous 2 recessions. If we are indeed on a major correction/ recession, will May mark the end of the March rally? And if so, will it make a -50%/-57% decline (1700 - 1500 respectively)? I am very curious to read your opinion on this, please share your views and charts! P.S. As with my previous recession ideas on S&P and DOW, the idea here is not to spread fear and start calling for mega shorts but to educate and point out the obvious pattern similarities. Have a look on my previous similar work:
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
38
S&P500 Does Unemployment rate point to a Dotcom/ Subprime CRASH?Following the attention that my recent Dow Jones/ S&P500 ideas got (you can find both at the bottom of this study) in relation to a potential market crash, I thought it would be a good time to look look at how the stock markets (S&P on this particular study) went by in times of sharp increase on the Unemployment Rate. ** Before we start, please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** Since 1970 every sharp rise on the Unemployment Rate has resulted in a sharp stock market crash with the exception of 2 times. In total we've had 8 sharp rises on the Unemployment Rate, 6 resulted into a strong market crash and 2 had stocks unaffected (even rose). At this point I want to bring forward the fact that during the last two Bear Markets (Dotcom, Subprime), the Unemployment Rate crossed above its MA50 (see the chart that follows). That is something it has already done this time. Does this mean that we have just initiated a new Bear Market similar to that of the Dotcom and Subprime market crashes? I am very interested in reading your opinion on the matter. Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section! Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! * Related ideas on S&P and Dow Jones:
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
24
SPX Outlook for this next two weeks.Perhaps there are a thousand more scenarios although I can see how the index has been losing momentum. Could it be that the market stimuli have not been sufficient and we are facing the continuation of the correction? I have drawn in yellow my main idea, that this is falling apart again. In another colour, a kind of orange, the idea that the market is still sleepy and that can go higher (I can not imagine how, but the probability exist. What are your thoughts? What part are you on? Thanks!
SP:SPX
by harribatu
1
S&P500 Is COVID just a bounce inside the Channel?** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** Well as you see the chart is pretty explanatory. I want your thoughts on a simple question. Was the sell-off driven by the COVID pandemic just a necessary technical bounce inside the multi-year Channel Up that started at the bottom of the 2008 crisis? So far, even though the 2200 bottom marginally broke it, we have stronger evidence with the recent weekly rally that the trend is still bullish within the Channel Up. The Megaphone that has emerged can be seen as similar to the one that preceded it in 2014 - 2016. Maybe now the index will continue upwards but on the lower part of the Channel Up. Notice how the RSI was descending during both Megaphones. What do you think? Was that just a bounce? Looking forward to your opinion.
TVC:SPX
by TradingShot
29
S&P500 Trading planPattern: Channel Up on 1D. Signal: Initially bearish towards the Higher Low trend line of the Channel Up as the Rising Wedge that was supporting broke downwards. (A) If the Higher Low trend line holds it is bullish on the short term. If the 2625 Support breaks, it is bearish. The region in between those is a neutral zone. Target: (A) 2800 (roughly where it can meet with the 1D MA50), (B) 2450 (just above the next Support). ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. **
OANDA:SPX500USD
by TradingShot
7
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
SP:SPX
by Dinjin
1
S&P 500 INDEX (SPX) MonthlyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low. The Djinn Predictive Indicators are simple mathematical equations. Once an equation is given to Siri the algorithm provides the future price swing date. Djinn Indicators work on all charts, for any asset category and in all time frames. Occasionally a Djinn Predictive Indicator will miss its prediction date by one candlestick. If multiple Djinn prediction dates are missed and are plowed through by same color Henikin Ashi candles the asset is being "reset". The "reset" is complete when Henikin Ashi candles are back in sync with Djinn price high or low prediction dates. One way the Djinn Indicator is used to enter and exit trades: For best results trade in the direction of the trend. The Linear Regression channel is used to determine trend direction. The Linear Regression is set at 2 -2 30. When a green Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression upper deviation line (green line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a sell is triggered. When a red Henikin Ashi candle intersects with the linear regression lower deviation line (red line) and both indicators intersect with a Djinn prediction date a buy is triggered. This trading strategy works on daily, weekly and Monthly Djinn Predictive charts. This is not trading advice. Trade at your own risk.
SP:SPX
by Dinjin
SPX Why the bears could have been wrongSince my last SPX idea, the market has made a few moves that leads me to think bears may have been too bearish on the market. let me explain.. I think the market was always one step ahead and we completed wave A on the ABC reversal and we are already in B wave (where I stated COVID PEAK and optimism will lead the market higher). The move yesterday and today should confirm the B wave of the ABC and that the market is still headed down to around 1500 for the SPX. Or are we? Bulls argue that we are in a wave 4 of 5 of a longer bull market and that not only has the bear market ended but that we will now set a new all time high soon due to the feds unlimited QE. How could this be with all the disruption to the market and world economy? Well its hard to fight the fed but its also hard to not see how COVID has damaged the world economy. But then the world leaders are printing vast amount of money to stimulate the economy. On a Technical bases, I will make an argument for both cases: For the Bear Case - We are in an ABC reversal in which we are now in the B wave up which is the optimism that we are now turning the corner on COVID. I expect the rally to continue to day based on the futures which should lead to the bull trap zone. The first resistance is the R1 which is around 2730. If the market break this then we are in what could be a bull trap since that is the former support. once the market is in the bull trap zone, the next resistance will be 2800 which is the .5 re-tracement of the whole A wave. If the bears fail to stop the bulls then the final resistance is the .618 (R3). With that broken, we could very well be in Bull market. In my opinion looking at the weekly MACD, it does not look as though we could easily turn the tide but this is where the feds unlimited QE comes in with the bull case For the Bull Case - This market "crash" has been all just a big misunderstanding which is being rectified by the feds action and Unlimeted QE. The crash was to sudden to be a long term bear market and it instead was a quick correction/wave 4 of a larger bull market to all time highs. The trap set by the bears right above 2730 and below 2900 will turn into bear trap (since bears will anticipate a strong resistance and will short) before it breaks the daily 200EMA. After all Covid cases are peaking and the economy will be open soon and even if it doesn't we have the fed with unlimited PE.
SP:SPXShort
by UnknownUnicorn3272672
1
SPX S&P 500 - Loss of momentum on W and M - High resistanceHello, hope your safe and on your guard in those difficult moments. My analysis on the Weekly Chart just before the Heikin Ashi candle close. Right now it doesn't look good. The tails like to be eaten, but let's wait and see how the candle will end. At this moment the look that he want to reject it. The most concerning things for me is the break down of the EMA Ribbon.. this is usually a sign that the retracement will be much longer but market makers could play with that. They actually want you to put back your money inside the market.. to eventually eat more liquidity. They want to let you think that the market is ready to get back on track when the market is only retracing to a gap down exactly on the daily ema ribbon resistance. What I see is that the market can let believe believe a little more that this trend up is there to stay when in reality they will eat all the liquidity around Easter and pull back quickly on the fib 0.5%. Please note that I have not included a Gap Down as I consider that they will eventually be filled upwards by wave 5. Here are some important details for the S&P 500: Renko Resistance: 2838.72 Renko Resistance: [/boquer2661.30 Gap Up: 2538.18 (bottom part of the gap up) Gap Up: 2295.93 (bottom part of the gap up) JMA: [/boquer2513.32 (currently support) Fibonnaci [/boquer0.5 à 2034.20 Fibonnaci 0.618 to 1712.93 Momentum: MACD is down in change of direction on the weekly and downhill on the monthly ... so losing momentum in the long term .. RSI: In BEAR territory on Montlhy and Weekly Eliott Wave: As we are on a cycle III retracement wave and the wave 2 retracement was 0.618%, I believe that the 0.5% and 0.618 retracement are the more likely and the 0.382 retracement has been smashed and is not sharp.
SP:SPXShort
by Crypto_Mercy