S&P500 Best buy signal since early January.The S&P500 index (SPX) is on a 1 week rebound following the March 13 Low which was made on Support Zone 2 and is so far on the bottom of the 5-month Channel Up. All candles have closed inside this pattern and as you see so far every bearish and bullish wave follows similar structure as the previous one.
We are near the best buy signal since January 06 as the 1D MACD is above to form a Bullish Cross. Our short-term target is the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and medium-term 4190 (near Resistance).
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Spxsignals
SPX500 WEEKLY ANALYSISEIGHTCAP:SPX500
As we can see a new uptrend is forming on the EIGHTCAP:SPX500
We can see that price has broken structure forming it higher high and has come back to retest that same area and also showing signs of rejections at that area so we could be looking for possible sells around that area, but if price pushes below and closes below that area we could be looking at a continuation of that former down trend
S&P500 is accumulating for a 2 year rally to 5700.We have showed you this multi-year Channel Up on the S&P500 index (SPX) before. We have shown you the Lower Lows Support of the 2M RSI that has caught all major bottoms since 2016. What this chart shows is that the index has bottomed on the Channel's Higher Lows (a 13 year trend-line) and is basically on an accumulation phase before the new rally begins.
The previous 2 rallies of the 2011 and 2016 bottoms hit the top of the Channel in about 2 years. That gives a roughy 5700 target by the end of 2024. If it follows the more aggressive COVID recover rout (March 2020 and after) that hit the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, we may hit 6250 by the Summer of 2024.
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S&P500 is a perfect buy here long-term in this Cup pattern.The S&P500 is on a medium-term correction following the February 02 rejection just below the 1W MA100 (red trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Cup formation and the price is approaching its buy Zone.
Right now though it sits on the Higher Lows trend-line that has formed the medium-term Channel Up and is an ideal buy for the long-term, with limited downside. The 1D RSI is on the December Support and if the perfect symmetry with the downtrend of the Bear Cycle holds, it means it is on an the inverse path of February 22 - June 16 2022.
There are obvious Resistance Zones within the Cup pattern, while also the Fibonacci retracement levels align very well. Buy and target next the 0.618 Fib and the bottom of Resistance Zone 2 at 4300. That is marginally below the August 16 High.
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S&P500 Perfectly following the long-term planIt is more than a week ago that we called the exact bottom buy on the S&P500 (SPX) index:
Our first target (4050) has been hit and the 'Powell pull-back' is giving us a new opportunity to enter. As you seethe 1D RSI rebounded exceptionally on the Support provided by the December 19 Low and what's left now is only for the 1D MACD to make a Bullish Cross and solidify the new bullish wave to the new Higher High of the Channel Up.
The previous rise topped on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension, so Target 1 now is 4170. If then we close above the 4,195 Resistance, we will take one final short-term buy targeting 4250 (Target 2).
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S&P500 The huge Inverse H&S has started and its target is 4700!Last week we have made clear our short/ medium-term view on the S&P500 (SPX), calling a buy on the exact bottom of the Channel Up:
It is time to look again, as we normally do on a monthly basis, on the bigger picture, looking at the 2D time-frame. The Channel Up is clear and so is the Resistance on the 2D MA200 (orange trend-line) which formed the previous High in February. The rebound was achieved exactly on the 2D MA50 (blue trend-line).
The long-term pattern that stands out is the huge Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) whose head was the bottom of the Bear Cycle, which after breaking its Lower Highs trend-line completed the Right Shoulder. Technically this suggests that the price should now begin its rise to its usual target. That is the 2.0 Fibonacci extension level and is exactly on the $4700 mark.
The Fibonacci retracement levels from the Top-Bottom of the Bear Cycle have so far matched Support and Resistance levels with high accuracy, so keep those in mind for the next immediate High, e.g. on the 0.618 Fib at 4315, which is also almost the August 15 2022 High.
The STOCH RSI is just coming off a Bullish Cross, indicating that we are just at the start of a new rally.
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S&P500 Bottom by tomorrow, slow 2-week recovery after.The S&P500 index (SPX) is trading between its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) ad the long-term Channel Up pattern that started on the November 03 Low is attempting to price its new Lower High.
Based on the symmetry provided by the 1D RSI that is on the 39.00 Support (Dec 19 and Dec 28 Double Bottom), the 1D MACD and and 4H Death Cross (February 27 and December 19), the current sequence is extremely similar with the December 19 - 22 bottom fractal. That was basically the previous Higher Low of the Channel Up. The 4H MA50 (green trend-line) is about to cross tomorrow below the 1D MA50 and that marked the exact previous bottom on December 22.
As a result, this is the most optimal long-term buy level, and we are targeting initially at 4050 (middle of the Channel Up) and 4250 (just below the Higher Highs trend-line) in extension.
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S&P500 Short-term correction about to start.It appears that the Diverging Channel Up we spoke of last week eventually prevailed and the S&P500 index (SPX) is printing a Higher High formation similar to December 01 - 13. The pattern that carries this top formation is a Cup, which is now trading around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the December fractal, the first target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). A break below Support Zone 1 will extend our selling towards Support Zone 2, where near the bottom of the Channel Up we will place our long-term buys.
See how the 1D MACD Bearish Cross as well as the Lower Highs formation on the 1D RSI, also match those of the December peak.
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SPX500 Next MovePair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Bearish Channel in Short Term as an Corrective Pattern
Exp FIAT
Buying Divergence
Bullish Channel in Long Time Frame as a Corrective Pattern and Rejecting Previous Resistance Level
If it breaks the Resistance Level and Retest then Buy
Break of Structure
A probable Buy position for S&P 500 This level is critical for S&P 500. It is expected price bounce back to higher level after reaching to this lvl. please risk free ur trade after hitting TP1 and save profit until Tp2
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#S&P 500 INDEX In its decreasing movement after breaking the trend line, it has created a very harmonic and beautiful trend with a greater slope than the higher time.
Currently, in dealing with a resistance level from the previous movements in the range of 4136.85, three ranges are expected before the range of 3898.11 in the areas:
1-4045.50
2-3996.74
3-3935.98
touch There is no need for the trend to reach all the above goals. The price moves towards the trend line with a lower slope.
In case of unexpected performance, the ceiling of the previous pattern in the range of 4320.08 is considered an important range.
S&P500 pulling back. Those are the levels to sell/ buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) is pulling back after making a medium-term top on February 02. This isn't yet a Higher High on the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market bottom but it is a Higher High on the Diverging Higher High (light blue) that started on November 03.
Keep in mind that the October Channel Up is what helped us take the accurate buy exactly on its bottom 3 weeks ago:
With the 1D MACD making a Bearish Cross, the last time it formed one was on December 05, straight after the Dec 01 Higher High. That fractal sell initially bounced off Support Zone 1 that was formed from the last Higher Low before the top and then after breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded just before hitting Support Zone 2 (formed by the first Higher Low of the sequence).
On the current price action, Support Zone 1 fits perfectly above the bottom of the October Channel Up, while Support Zone 2 is at the bottom of the November Diverging Channel Up. Of course the long-term confirmation would come after the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross but we will attempt one tight stop buy on Support Zone 1 and the last on Support Zone 2. In both cases we are targeting the 4195 Resistance and if broken the 4325 August 15 High.
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S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out.
Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery:
a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence.
Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized.
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DeGRAM | SPX500 shortSPX is at major resistance and a psychological level of 42,000.
The market is consolidating between 36000 and 42000.
Notice, how the price pulled back from the resistance in previous testing.
Price action created a bearish harmonic pattern .
We anticipate further consolidation.
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SPX500 > Bullish Outlook is Very Likely if the Support HoldsThe SPX500 is trading in corrective mode ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate hike meeting, which is expected to impact the asset class' price. Currently trading at 4000, considered a crucial support level and psychological round number, the price may resume its bullish trend after a correction.
The stability of support levels at 4000 and 3990 depends on the Fed's rate decision. If rates are hiked more than 50 points, the market may turn bearish, and if support levels break, the price may retest the consolidation breakout's top. Key levels to watch include 4000 and 3990.
I would appreciate your support and opinion of this idea. Let's watch the level mentioned with an eagle eye.
S&P500 Under the December Resistance ahead of the FED.The S&P500 index (SPX) closed last week above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since April 20 2022. On top of that it formed the first 1D Golden Cross since July 08 2020, undoubtedly a very strong long-term buy signal. At the moment it is attempting to enter the 4060 - 4145 Resistance Zone, which was formed by December's two Highs. However, having broken above, 'Prior Lower High', it has an addition buy signal that it didn't have on September 13, when it failed. This is the level we pointed out two weeks ago on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly and the only hurdle is December's Resistance Zone. We are only willing to buy again if a 1D candle closes above it and target the August 16 2022 High at 4325. Until then, we can take advantage of short-term price fluctuations and sell with a tight SL, if the price closes below the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster and the bottom of the long-term Channel Up.
On the downside, We will medium-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500 Last hurdle but forming a 1D Golden CrossThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the second time during the start of the Bear Cycle in January 2022 and the first after December 12 2022. For the past three days it is being rejected there, which makes it a strong Resistance, along with the 'Prior Lower High', which is the level we pointed out last week on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly but now faces the 'Prior Lower High'. Until it breaks it, we are good to sell with a tight SL targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That trend-line just hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and are about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 09 2020. As a result, we are bullish long-term, targeting the Resistance Zone and if 4145 breaks, the August 16 2022 High at 4325.
We will only short-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500 Following 100% the plan. Now pricing a bottom.The S&P500 index followed our last projection we made on January 04 as after it held the Higher Lows of the October Channel Up, it rose substantially and got rejected on the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line (January 04 2022 trend-line):
This happened because it failed to close a 1D candle above this huge Bear Cycle Resistance, same it did on December 01 and December 13. This time however the 1D MACD shows that we are closer to the new long-term bottom than ever as it follows the October Bullish Cross to Bearish Cross sequence on a tight time-window. Adding the fact that again the price is near the bottom (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up, we see a hold here more likely and immediate retest of the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs.
As mentioned in previous publications, we ideally want to see SPX close above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), something it failed to do on the December 13 rejection. In that case, we will buy with a short-term target the top of the Resistance Zone (4140). For long-term buying we need to see the index close above the middle of the Channel Up.
On the other hand, if we close a candle below the Channel Up first, we will instead sell and target on the short-term the top of Support Zone 1 (3800) and under conditions that we will analyze if the bearish scenario prevails, the top of Support Zone 2 (3705).
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SPX has crossed 200 DMA for the fourth timeS&P500 has crossed above the 200 DMA for the fourth time.
It is a critical rejection zone that will decide the fate of bulls vs bears.
It would be better to wait for price to move above 4 % of 200 DMA before taking a bullish view due to the past rejections at 3.35% and 2.62% approximately.
I would consider 4,132 level to be safe for long trades and would stay bearish below this level.
S&P500 Can this divergence from 2008 and 2001 save the day?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up as we showed on our last analysis, struggling to break above its 1D MA50:
On the current analysis, we switch back to the longer-term dynamics and compare the 2022/23 correction (so far) to the previous Bear Cycles of 2008/09 and 2001/02, using the parameters of Inflation (red trend-line) and WTI Oil (black trend-line).
At the moment, the S&P500 is above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows, within an Ascending Triangle pattern since the May 16 Low. This can make all the difference during the current inflation crisis. The reason is that this pattern is different from the 1W RSI Higher Lows within a Falling Wedge of 2008/09 and just the Lower Highs of 2001/02.
As you see in 2008, the index was supported on the 1W MA200 as well and posted a counter-trend rally before eventually breaking it, and the break below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), practically opened the way for the more violent second part of the Bear Cycle. Same with 2001 where however the 1W MA200 didn't have as a significant role.
Inflation in all cases started to drop significantly after the Bear Cycle started, Oil seems to precede/ lead this fall, and (Oil's) current structure looks more like that (bottom fractal) of January 2009 and January 2002. Mere coincidence that we are now in January 2022?
Right now both the 1W RSI structure as well as the candles are different than before, being evidently slightly more bullish (so far). Can this RSI bullish divergence be enough to keep S&P500 above the 1W MA200 and start to rise to its first Higher High, effectively invalidating the Bear Cycle or history will repeat itself with another violent break below the 1W MA300?
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Will SP500 rise to 4300?Although, in my opinion, there is not any fundamental reason behind it, SP500 could start rising in this first part of the year.
There is a very good saying between traders: "trade what you see, not what you think" and, what I see are 3 weeks of rejection from the 3800 zone.
With this in mind, if this 3800 low remains intact, we can have a nice rise from SP500 and, if the index manages to clear also 4k zone, 4300 resistance is a reasonable target.
SPX- Which way?After the break back under 4k, SP500 started to consolidate and is trading in 100 points up and down for almost 3 weeks now.
The overall trend is bearish so a down break could be next. In such a case, the recent 3.5k low is exposed. This scenario has a negation above 3950.
On the other hand, a break above the resistance of the range could lead to some gains and even to 4200.
For now, to wait and see could be the best approach.
S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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