S&P500 Short-term correction about to start.It appears that the Diverging Channel Up we spoke of last week eventually prevailed and the S&P500 index (SPX) is printing a Higher High formation similar to December 01 - 13. The pattern that carries this top formation is a Cup, which is now trading around the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the December fractal, the first target is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). A break below Support Zone 1 will extend our selling towards Support Zone 2, where near the bottom of the Channel Up we will place our long-term buys.
See how the 1D MACD Bearish Cross as well as the Lower Highs formation on the 1D RSI, also match those of the December peak.
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Spxsignals
SPX500 Next MovePair : SPX500 Index
Description :
Bearish Channel in Short Term as an Corrective Pattern
Exp FIAT
Buying Divergence
Bullish Channel in Long Time Frame as a Corrective Pattern and Rejecting Previous Resistance Level
If it breaks the Resistance Level and Retest then Buy
Break of Structure
#S&P 500 INDEX In its decreasing movement after breaking the trend line, it has created a very harmonic and beautiful trend with a greater slope than the higher time.
Currently, in dealing with a resistance level from the previous movements in the range of 4136.85, three ranges are expected before the range of 3898.11 in the areas:
1-4045.50
2-3996.74
3-3935.98
touch There is no need for the trend to reach all the above goals. The price moves towards the trend line with a lower slope.
In case of unexpected performance, the ceiling of the previous pattern in the range of 4320.08 is considered an important range.
S&P500 pulling back. Those are the levels to sell/ buy.The S&P500 index (SPX) is pulling back after making a medium-term top on February 02. This isn't yet a Higher High on the Channel Up that started on the October 13 market bottom but it is a Higher High on the Diverging Higher High (light blue) that started on November 03.
Keep in mind that the October Channel Up is what helped us take the accurate buy exactly on its bottom 3 weeks ago:
With the 1D MACD making a Bearish Cross, the last time it formed one was on December 05, straight after the Dec 01 Higher High. That fractal sell initially bounced off Support Zone 1 that was formed from the last Higher Low before the top and then after breaking below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), it rebounded just before hitting Support Zone 2 (formed by the first Higher Low of the sequence).
On the current price action, Support Zone 1 fits perfectly above the bottom of the October Channel Up, while Support Zone 2 is at the bottom of the November Diverging Channel Up. Of course the long-term confirmation would come after the 1D MACD makes a Bullish Cross but we will attempt one tight stop buy on Support Zone 1 and the last on Support Zone 2. In both cases we are targeting the 4195 Resistance and if broken the 4325 August 15 High.
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S&P500 Has it bottomed beyond any doubt?Two weeks ago the S&P500 index (SPX) closed above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since the week of April 04 2022. Last week it tested the 1W MA50 as a Support, successfully held it and rebounded. If it wasn't for the rejection just below the 1W MA100, we would talk about the perfect break-out.
Still however this is a nearly perfect recovery:
a) The dominant pattern was an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S), which practically formed the bottom of the Bear Cycle, rebounding on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
b) The 1W RSI started rising on Higher Lows, while the price was on Lower Lows, waving a huge bullish divergence.
Interestingly, we've seen the very same IH&S pattern and RSI Bullish Divergence during both of the last major Bear Cycles, the 2008/09 Housing Crisis and 2001/02 Dotcom crash. Common feature of those two is that after the index closed above the 1W MA50, it formed a Channel Up (green pattern) that led it straight to the 1W MA200. This time the 1W MA200 is a Support, but there is the Resistance of previous Lower High to consider. And that is at 4640. Valid target in our opinion by the end of Q3 if this Channel Up is materialized.
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DeGRAM | SPX500 shortSPX is at major resistance and a psychological level of 42,000.
The market is consolidating between 36000 and 42000.
Notice, how the price pulled back from the resistance in previous testing.
Price action created a bearish harmonic pattern .
We anticipate further consolidation.
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SPX500 > Bullish Outlook is Very Likely if the Support HoldsThe SPX500 is trading in corrective mode ahead of tomorrow's Federal Reserve interest rate hike meeting, which is expected to impact the asset class' price. Currently trading at 4000, considered a crucial support level and psychological round number, the price may resume its bullish trend after a correction.
The stability of support levels at 4000 and 3990 depends on the Fed's rate decision. If rates are hiked more than 50 points, the market may turn bearish, and if support levels break, the price may retest the consolidation breakout's top. Key levels to watch include 4000 and 3990.
I would appreciate your support and opinion of this idea. Let's watch the level mentioned with an eagle eye.
S&P500 Under the December Resistance ahead of the FED.The S&P500 index (SPX) closed last week above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the first time since April 20 2022. On top of that it formed the first 1D Golden Cross since July 08 2020, undoubtedly a very strong long-term buy signal. At the moment it is attempting to enter the 4060 - 4145 Resistance Zone, which was formed by December's two Highs. However, having broken above, 'Prior Lower High', it has an addition buy signal that it didn't have on September 13, when it failed. This is the level we pointed out two weeks ago on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly and the only hurdle is December's Resistance Zone. We are only willing to buy again if a 1D candle closes above it and target the August 16 2022 High at 4325. Until then, we can take advantage of short-term price fluctuations and sell with a tight SL, if the price closes below the 4H MA50 (green trend-line), targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line)/ 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster and the bottom of the long-term Channel Up.
On the downside, We will medium-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500 Last hurdle but forming a 1D Golden CrossThe S&P500 index (SPX) broke above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) for the second time during the start of the Bear Cycle in January 2022 and the first after December 12 2022. For the past three days it is being rejected there, which makes it a strong Resistance, along with the 'Prior Lower High', which is the level we pointed out last week on our SPX report:
As you see the price followed the buy call at the bottom of the Channel Up flawlessly but now faces the 'Prior Lower High'. Until it breaks it, we are good to sell with a tight SL targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That trend-line just hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and are about to form the first 1D Golden Cross since July 09 2020. As a result, we are bullish long-term, targeting the Resistance Zone and if 4145 breaks, the August 16 2022 High at 4325.
We will only short-term sell if the index closes below the Channel Up and target 3800 (top of Support Zone 1) and if 3760 breaks target 3710 (top of Support Zone 2).
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S&P500 Following 100% the plan. Now pricing a bottom.The S&P500 index followed our last projection we made on January 04 as after it held the Higher Lows of the October Channel Up, it rose substantially and got rejected on the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line (January 04 2022 trend-line):
This happened because it failed to close a 1D candle above this huge Bear Cycle Resistance, same it did on December 01 and December 13. This time however the 1D MACD shows that we are closer to the new long-term bottom than ever as it follows the October Bullish Cross to Bearish Cross sequence on a tight time-window. Adding the fact that again the price is near the bottom (Higher Lows) of the Channel Up, we see a hold here more likely and immediate retest of the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs.
As mentioned in previous publications, we ideally want to see SPX close above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), something it failed to do on the December 13 rejection. In that case, we will buy with a short-term target the top of the Resistance Zone (4140). For long-term buying we need to see the index close above the middle of the Channel Up.
On the other hand, if we close a candle below the Channel Up first, we will instead sell and target on the short-term the top of Support Zone 1 (3800) and under conditions that we will analyze if the bearish scenario prevails, the top of Support Zone 2 (3705).
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SPX has crossed 200 DMA for the fourth timeS&P500 has crossed above the 200 DMA for the fourth time.
It is a critical rejection zone that will decide the fate of bulls vs bears.
It would be better to wait for price to move above 4 % of 200 DMA before taking a bullish view due to the past rejections at 3.35% and 2.62% approximately.
I would consider 4,132 level to be safe for long trades and would stay bearish below this level.
S&P500 Can this divergence from 2008 and 2001 save the day?The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up as we showed on our last analysis, struggling to break above its 1D MA50:
On the current analysis, we switch back to the longer-term dynamics and compare the 2022/23 correction (so far) to the previous Bear Cycles of 2008/09 and 2001/02, using the parameters of Inflation (red trend-line) and WTI Oil (black trend-line).
At the moment, the S&P500 is above its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) with the 1W RSI on Higher Lows, within an Ascending Triangle pattern since the May 16 Low. This can make all the difference during the current inflation crisis. The reason is that this pattern is different from the 1W RSI Higher Lows within a Falling Wedge of 2008/09 and just the Lower Highs of 2001/02.
As you see in 2008, the index was supported on the 1W MA200 as well and posted a counter-trend rally before eventually breaking it, and the break below the 1W MA300 (yellow trend-line), practically opened the way for the more violent second part of the Bear Cycle. Same with 2001 where however the 1W MA200 didn't have as a significant role.
Inflation in all cases started to drop significantly after the Bear Cycle started, Oil seems to precede/ lead this fall, and (Oil's) current structure looks more like that (bottom fractal) of January 2009 and January 2002. Mere coincidence that we are now in January 2022?
Right now both the 1W RSI structure as well as the candles are different than before, being evidently slightly more bullish (so far). Can this RSI bullish divergence be enough to keep S&P500 above the 1W MA200 and start to rise to its first Higher High, effectively invalidating the Bear Cycle or history will repeat itself with another violent break below the 1W MA300?
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Will SP500 rise to 4300?Although, in my opinion, there is not any fundamental reason behind it, SP500 could start rising in this first part of the year.
There is a very good saying between traders: "trade what you see, not what you think" and, what I see are 3 weeks of rejection from the 3800 zone.
With this in mind, if this 3800 low remains intact, we can have a nice rise from SP500 and, if the index manages to clear also 4k zone, 4300 resistance is a reasonable target.
SPX- Which way?After the break back under 4k, SP500 started to consolidate and is trading in 100 points up and down for almost 3 weeks now.
The overall trend is bearish so a down break could be next. In such a case, the recent 3.5k low is exposed. This scenario has a negation above 3950.
On the other hand, a break above the resistance of the range could lead to some gains and even to 4200.
For now, to wait and see could be the best approach.
S&P500 at the bottom of October Channel Up looking for directionThe S&P500 index (SPX) continues to trade on the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up having failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since December 16. This has now completed a 3-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a rebound, there is no confirmation as the 1D MACD hasn't made a Bullish Cross while the price remains also below the 4H MA200 (green trend-line).
S&P500 needs to break above the 4H MA200 and make the MACD Bullish Cross, in order to invalidate the Lower High it formed on the September 13 rejection that eventually led to a more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September, which would also mean breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04 of the previous year (2022), essentially the Bear Cycle Resistance. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
On the bright side, even a neutral price action within the Channel Up can form a 1D Golden Cross at the end of January, which will of course be a bullish signal.
Our targets above the 4055 Lower High are 4145 (top of Resistance Zone) and 4300 (Higher High of the October Channel Up). Below the Channel Down we target (as mentioned) the 3700 Support.
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S&P500 Running out of time and space. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) hit again the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the October Channel Up following two straight rejections on its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). This completes a 2-week fall following the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it appears to be staging a small rebound early today, so far it remains even below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), where it had a clear rejection on December 22 as well as the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom. Notice the 4H Death Cross on both patterns.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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S&P500 Repeating early September. Can it avoid the fall?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding since yesterday after the 7 day fall followng the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) rejection. Even though it rebounded near the bottom of the October Channel Up, so far it remains below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) as well as the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Based on the 4H MACD, it appears that S&P is repeating the early September Cup reversal pattern. That sequence broke above the 4H MA50 and 1D MA50 in succession before getting rejected just above the 4H MA200. We are now slightly past the 4H Death Cross. That rejection later initiated a new and more aggressive round of selling to the October 13 market bottom.
In order for the S&P500 to avoid this scenario, it needs to break above the previous Lower High (4055), which failed to do so in September. Until then, a new Lower Highs or 1W M50 rejection should be enough to test first the Support Zone around 3700 and if broken, even the market low.
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DeGRAM | SPX500 bears are in control?SPX fell on fundamentals before rebounding from dynamic resistance.
It will probably try to pullback to the previous resistance zone .
Notice, how the price then goes down after a false break of the pullback (green box).
The 4000 level is a great level for taking short trades.
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S&P500 Crunch time, either holds or the Bear Market continuesThe S&P500 index (SPX) has has two major rejections since December 13, as despite breaking (only intra-day) above the Lower Highs trend-line since January 04, it got rejected marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the next day on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). That is a double failure to break-out and considering that the 1W MA50 had the precious Lower High rejection on August 16, this is far from ideal for buyers.
On top of that, the RSI on the 1W time-frame got rejected on the Resistance Zone that formed the last two Lower Highs and is holding since March 28. As a result, with the price breaking today below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in over a month (since November 10), we are ahead of critical crossroads.
Either it holds and keeps 1D candles closing inside the Channel Up (dotted lines) that started on the October 13 Low or it breaks below and repeats the patterns of the April/ May and August/ September sell-offs. As you see those sell sequences have very distinct structures. A break below the Channel Up should test the Support Zone below where we could see a temporary rebound back above the 1D MA50 towards the 1D MA200, in a Cup formation. A closing below the Support Zone, confirms going for the October Low.
In the case that the Channel Up holds and closes all candles inside it, a rebound is still limited to the January 04 Lower Highs trend-line. In order to resume buying, we need to see a candle closing above the 1W MA50, unlike December 13. In that case we can see the index test the 4330 (August 16 High) Resistance by March.
At this point, it is worth noting that the 1W RSI has also a clear Higher Lows trend-line that caught the previous market Lows and in fact is a Bullish Divergence. Keep an eye on that as a bounce on that Higher Lows trend-line can again give us the new Low and if it indicates indeed a long-term Bullish Divergence, this time it may be a Higher Low on the index as well.
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S&P500 rebounding on the 4H MA200 and Channel Up bottom?The S&P500 index (SPX) is rebounding today after making a Double Test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line). This is just over the Channel Up pattern's bottom (Higher Lows trend-line).
The sequence resembles the November 04 - 10 Higher Lows fractal (also based on the 4H MACD) and what happened then was an instant rise to the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up.
This time, especially ahead of Tuesday's CPI and Wednesday's Fed Rate Decision, the index is limited first to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and then obviously the Lower Highs trend-line that has been holding (and forming all of the 2022 High rejections) since January 04. Notice that on the (red) 4090 - 4100 Resistance Zone, we also have the 1W MA50 (red trend-line), the last major MA standing.
As a result if the price breaks above the 4H MA50, we can take the bullish break-out signal and target just below this highly important Resistance cluster at 4080. A break above the 1W MA50 can be used as a buy continuation signal and target the top of the Channel Up (4170 - 4190) short-term. On the other hand, a closing below the 1D MA50 (green trend-line), which is the medium-term Support, will be taken as a bearish break-out signal targeting the 3700 Support Zone.
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BITCOIN and S&P500 Has a 10 year Bull phase just started?A 1 year correction which is nothing but common throughout Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) existence, has done its work well in spreading fear and doubt at the market during this inflationary stock crisis in 2022. In times like this what helps the most is to maintain a long-term perspective and look at how history reacted in similar situations.
We thought that nothing can help us get a better grasp at the situation than look into how Bitcoin compares to the major stock index the S&P500 (SPX). On this 1M time-frame, Bitcoin is displayed by the orange trend-line while the S&P500 by the blue. We are looking into the S&P500's price action since the Great Depression. As you see the index repeats through history four major phases:
* The Bear Phase (red), where the index gets into a Megaphone pattern and has two major correction sequences. It breaks initially below the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) and then below the 1M MA200 (black trend-line).
* The Accumulation Phase (blue), where the index starts recovering from the Bear Phase and breaks above both the 1M MA100 and MA200, turning sideways. This is technically the most efficient/ earliest available level to enter the market.
* The Expansion Phase (yellow), where the index established trading above the 1M MA100/200 (never breaks them until the next Bear Phase) and makes the first multi-year rise. This Phase is marked by three "smaller" correction periods (red ellipses).
* The Bull Phase (green), where the index recovers from the last small correction and rises aggressively to form the top before the new Bear Phase. It tends to last around 10 years.
This year's correction (2022) is the third one of the Expansion Phase and as the price remains above the 1M MA100, it is more likely that with the correction already completed, S&P500 has entered its new Bull Phase.
The chart clearly shows that Bitcoin's 12 year period of immense growth has only been during the S&P500's Accumulation and Expansion Phases. This suggests that we may haven't seen yet it's strongest growth to come during the stock market's new Bull Phase! The correlation of Bitcoin's tops and bottoms to those of the S&P500 is more than obvious.
Most market participants say that this time is different due to the soaring inflation and aggressive rate hikes. But hasn't this also been the narrative in the late 70s? Still the market found the mechanisms to grow in the Expansion Phase that followed and the new technologies (internet etc) to inflate it to immense highs in the 90s until the eventual crashes of the 00s. It may seem like a different reason each time but the behavior is always cyclical with repeating patterns and phases, the narrative in the past 100 years can be whatever the news decide it to be. But the market will continue printing and printing the same patterns as human behavior stays the same.
So what do you think, are we about to witness the growth of a lifetime on both Bitcoin and stocks in the next 10 years? Feel free to let me know in the comments section below!
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S&P500 One last round of pain before the Bull Cycle?The S&P500 index (SPX) closed the worst week since October on a not so encouraging note as the failed to break and got rejected on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A simple comparison with the major corrections of 2002/03, 1982/83 and 1962/63 shows that as long as the index remains below the 1W MA50, the Bear Cycle is in effect.
A common characteristic among all 4 sequences is that the 1W RSI is on Higher Lows while the index (with the exception of 1962/63) is on Lower Lows, i.e. a Bullish Divergence.
The exception of 1962/63 is the most optimistic one as after a mont of sideways price action on the 1W MA50 (green circle), the index eventually rose aggressively and recovered the High.
The 1982/83 period is the most pessimistic as while the RSI made one last (3rd) Higher Low, the S&P500 made a Lower Low (red circle) before rebounding above the 1W MA50 and into the new Bull Cycle.
The 2002/03 sequence is a neutral one as the index did get rejected on the 1W MA50 one last time but made a Higher Low (blue circle) and broke above the 1W MA50 1.5 month later.
Which of the three scenarios do you think will prevail this time?
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