Get started

Spxtrade

Liquidity sources are drying upOn Friday, the S&P 500 in the last part of the session began to fall with some force. And today, we have seen that it has fallen and opened below the support zone at 4.998 The question we have to ask ourselves is: What does this mean? Does it mean it will continue to fall? Has a roof formed? Last Friday, the options contracts expired. This meant the disappearance of the gamma, and meant the disappearance of a source of liquidity, that is, the money coming from the dealers to cover the positions they had open. That money has disappeared, therefore, we must consider that a source of liquidity is missing. Until we see how the gamma is situated, at what levels it stabilizes and what the behavior of investors is in the options market, it is reasonable to think that we will witness temporary fragility at least during the first days of this week. And what does the chart tell us? This morning it has pierced the support in the 4.998 zone. This is a symptom of weakness, of short-term fragility. What 2 options are there? If it now rebounds and is not able to exceed the 5.000 level, it will most likely deploy a new downward leg. And if it rebounds, and moves sideways above 5.000, it is most likely that the price will try to return to the high zone. Now, 5.050 is a wall. It was already before the expiration of the options contracts, and it is even more so now. Therefore, maximum rise is in the 5.050 zone. If it fails to break above 5.000, we have support between 4.941 and 4.922 As long as the S&P 500 remains above that level, I will maintain a bullish bias.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by tradingconmike
S&P Sleep Walking To ResistanceIf you are going to let Retail sales come out today and 'Guess' the outcome...It's gonna hurt. Let the market move to higher Reasonable Resistance and/or fall to comfy Support. We can NOTE our future zone slightly above recent highs due to lack of downside impetus. Recent news has fed rate hike fears but nonetheless various global markets continue to push higher. This means you need to scale in short and take a constructive approach to the current market situation mainly suited to scalpers due to lack of movement. The news ATM is not strong enough for a larger push and that is why we are waiting for it to wake up (hence the image). And, sooner or later, just like every other chart you ever watch me post or every stream I do.... It moves and it moves fast. You must be there to catch it when it does. Remember, all trades need planning and management. That is essential and at the core of successful Trading.. Do not fomo in and do not try to rub your crystal ball. It's much better to use this market to gauge the overall mood and judge your decision and risk management based on that. Trade Logic, Trade FACT. A Much better approach.
SP:SPX
by WillSebastian
2
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . US September Building Permits came in 1.4% higher than in August while Housing Starts registered 8.1% lower , following a recent trend of builders making more plans to build but being unable to start. Several factors contributing to this include average 30yr Fixed Mortgages going above 7%, more supply chain interruptions delaying building material/parts arrivals and inflated prices that are increasing the cost of new builds. Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Gold, Agriculture, EURUSD, GBPUSD, CNYUSD, JPYUSD are all down while DXY, US Treasuries and the VIX are all up. The 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate is now 2.9% compared to 2.8% on 10/14 . Putin has announced Martial Law in all four of the Ukrainian territories he "annexed" a few weeks ago . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending down at $3685 after forming a peak just below the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3760, the next support (minor) is at $3658. Volume is currently Low (high) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3495, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending down at 45 after forming a peak at 48.5 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 as support. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 95 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is beginning to form a soft peak at -62, it's still technically testing the uptrend line from March 2020 as resistance at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending down at 30 as Price is beginning to fall, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely aim to retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3770 as resistance . However, if Price continues to breakdown here, it will likely formally retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $3700.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% BTC, 48% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September CPI came in 0.4% higher than in August compared to a 0.1% increase from July to August , and CPI without Food + Energy came in 0.6% higher, signifying that the decrease in fuel prices wasn't enough to slow inflation. This leaves the Federal Reserve in a comfortable position to raise another 75bps or more on November 2nd. Markets initially dumped on this news but have since rallied with Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, Agriculture, US Treasuries, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD all now up on the day; DXY, VIX, JPYUSD and Gold are down. Very 2022, and very "short squeeze" vibes. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15; US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3685 and is testing $3658 minor resistance after bouncing off of $3517 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to end a 5 day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3785, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 44 as it retests the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 after bouncing just above the uptrend line from August 2015 at 35. Stochastic crossed over bullish today and is currently trending up at 58 as it bounces off of 48 support. MACD reverted to a bullish crossover today and is currently trending up at -83 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price shot up today, because this is an extremely volatile surge this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to reestablish support at $3658 minor resistance then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3600 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3600.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPX Daily bullish. Recommended ratio: 88% SPX, 12% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . The BEA reported June PCE numbers this morning and both came in higher than last month: Core PCE (sans Food and Energy) came in at 4.8% vs 4.7% last month (also had a 4.7% consensus estimate) and PCE Index came in at 6.8% (20 year high) vs 6.3% in the previous two months. Although the move in Core PCE wasn't too significant, it's the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation which leaves the possibility of a 75bps hike in September on the table. BLS reported Q2 ECI numbers and compensation stayed relatively flat while wages/salaries increased and benefits decreased compared to Q1, this is perhaps indicative of businesses cutting perks and profit sharing in exchange for higher wages to lure in talent during an inflation induced consumer slowdown. Compensation, Wages/Salary and Benefits all went down for State and Local Government employees. The U of M Sentiment Survey came in at 51.5, a 3% gain from last month's (50); if next month's is higher, this would imply that consumers are becoming more optimistic about the worst being behind us in 2022. The Atlanta Fed posted their first GDPNow Q3 estimate and to the surprise of many they anticipate a quarter of +2.1% GDP growth. Earnings this quarter are so far proving to be resilient as well and provide additional confidence for investors going into Q3. Equities, Cryptos, Gold and Oil are up while VIX, DXY, and Treasuries are down as more investors begin to transition to risk-on with hopes that the worst is behind us. Though I still think it's premature to assume money markets have bottomed until after September, there is a lot of upside potential here compared to downside.* Price is continuing the FOMC rally and is currently trending up at $4130 as it approaches a test of $4175 resistance (which is a critical resistance). Volume remains Moderate (high) and is on track to favor buyers for a third consecutive session if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3862, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up and beginning to form a soft peak at 66 as it approaches 68.42 resistance. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently breaking above 33 resistance and trending up at 42.65 with no sign of peak formation, the next resistance is at 55. ADX is currently trending up at 18 as Price is pushing higher, this is bullish. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely test $4175 major resistance before potentially testing the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at ~$4300 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely test $4k psychological support before potentially retesting $3938 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $4k.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPX Daily neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 55% SPX, 45% Cash. * BULL TRAP WATCH . META missed on both earnings and revenue estimates in addition to seeing their first drop in revenue growth; they predict that this trend will continue in Q3 and perhaps the rest of the year. Fed announced a 75bps hike today and Chairman JPow iterated that we aren't in a recession because the labor market continues to be resilient (stagflation), assuring investors that a soft landing is still not out of reach. Interestingly, he also mentioned that "another unusually large rate hike could be appropriate at the next meeting", "path to a soft landing is narrowing", "likely full effects of rate hikes have not been felt yet", and that inflation could get worse going into year end. Somehow, investors are rejoicing as if a bottom is in; but if you look at what happened when the last FOMC statement was released, SPX rallied 2% from $3762 to $3841 to close 06/15 and then fell 5% from $3841 to $3642 to start the next session (06/16). The TA this time around looks a bit different but it's something to be mindful of going in to tomorrow. Key dates remaining this week: 1st Q2 GDP estimate at 830am EST tomorrow (07/28), AAPL and AMZN earnings after-hours tomorrow (07/28), PCE Index report at 830am EST (07/29) and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (07/29). If the first GDP estimate comes in at -1.2% (current GDPNow estimate) or less, it will likely add bullishness to hopes of a 'mild recession' or no 'recession' at all. If PCE numbers (the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation) show that they are declining somehow, the Fed will likely interpret that as inflation starting to wind down and will look to raise FFR by 50bps in September (which money markets would likely perceive as bullish). It's still too premature to call for a bottom but if Price is able to close above $3938 for the rest of the week, there is a good chance that it tests the upper trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$4300 riding into September.* Price is currently breaking out above $3938 minor resistance after bouncing from a very critical support juncture in response to the FOMC statement today. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has been alternating between buyer and seller dominance over the past four sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3809, this margin is mildly bearish. RSI is currently trending up at 60 (3-month high) with no signs of peak formation after bouncing from 53 support, the next resistance is at 68. Stochastic bounced off 76 support and is currently trending up at 80, if it can break above 81 it would be a bullish crossover. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 20 after breaking above 10.73 support, the next resistance is at 33. ADX is completing a trough and is currently trending up slightly at 16 as Price is pushing higher, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to close above $3938 for one more session then the next likely target is a retest of $4175 resistance . However, if Price breaks back down here it will likely retest $3938 minor support before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3915 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy