S&P500 Near the top on two patterns. Pull back possible.S&P500 is testing Resistance (1) on the Channel Up inside the larger Megaphone pattern. Currently it is at the top on two separate patterns.
The MA50 (1d) is supporting the Channel Up and the MA200 (1d) the Megaphone.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price.
2. Buy on Support (1).
3. Sell under Support (2).
Targets:
1. 4175 (Support 1).
2. 4300 (top of Channel Up).
3. 4000 (bottom of Megaphone and near MA200 1d).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) Highs (70.00) and Lows (30.00) match perfectly the Tops and Bottoms of the Channel Up. Use this to your advantage. RSI values of 70.00 are to be sold while values of 30.00 to be bought, as long as the Channel Up holds.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
Spxtrading
S&P500: Pull-back short term but new Bull Cycle ahead.S&P500 has almost reached the medium-term TP (4,220) so we are booking the profit on last Friday's buy position. The 1W timeframe is on steady green levels technically (RSI = 58.257, MACD = 54.060, ADX = 33.739) but the RSI is at the top of its Rising Wedge, indicating a possible loss of strength. We expect a pull-back to S1 and will buy it, targeting R1 (TP = 4,330), which is the High of August 2022.
On the long term the bullish trend is intact (Channel Up) and we have an additional reason to expect a new Bull Cycle, as the 1W Ichimoku Cloud has turned green and when that happened in the past, the 1W MA50 usually turns into the long term Support for many months before a correction.
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S&P500 Channel Down or Bull Flag? Trade accordingly.The S&P500 is testing the Rising Support of the Channel Up pattern.
It is doing so inside a dashed Channel Down, which can also be a Bull Flag.
As long as the price closes over the Rising Support, buy and target 4215 (Fibonacci 1.5).
If it closes under it, sell and target 4050 (4hour MA200).
Previous chart:
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S&P500: One last bullish leg before a new correctionThe S&P500 is pulling back today after it hit the 0.5 Fibonacci level on Friday. The 1D technicals remain bullish (RSI = 61.663, MACD = 33.310, ADX = 42.403) as the current rise is the bullish leg that started on the Higher Low of the Channel Up and technically peaks near 4,250. That is our short term target and don't see a correction before that.
Of course we need to take into account the R1 Zone, which has formed tops 4 times already since June 2022 but this time the 1D RSI looks more like the July 29th-August 8th 2022, which was a stepping stone before a blow off top at 4,330.
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S&P500: Breaking key Resistance but the 1W MA50 has to holdThe S&P500 crossed this week over the LH trendline of the August 15th rejection on the 1W MA50. Proportionally this can be compared to the April 18th 2016 breakout. The key for a sustainable uptrend on that occasion was the 1W MA50. It held twice and sustained a long term uptrend. With the 1W technicals turning marginally bullish (RSI = 56.614, MACD = 37.390, ADX = 36.682) and the RSI on a similar HL trendline with 2016, we expect a few weeks of sideways trading and if the 1W MA50 holds, we have a legitimate case for a new long term Bull Cycle.
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S&P500: This may be the rally that turns the 1WMA50 into SupportThe S&P500 has completed 3 straight green weeks, the strongest 3 week rally since October 24th. As we zoom out on the 1W time frame where the technicals have just only turned marginally bullish (RSI = 55.603, MACD = 28.700, ADX = 34.959) we can see an attempt to form a Channel Up. The 1W RSI is slightly pulling downwards and since it started rising back in May, this was a pull back signal within a greater bullish wave. Those are clearly shown on your chart. The June 13th-August 15th wave rose by 18.90% and the October 10th-December 12th wave rose by 18.40%.
This suggests that there is still much room left to rise on this wave, thus we remain bullish aiming at another +18.40% rise (TP = 4,500). It is worth making clear at this point that if another such bullish wave is materialized, then the 1W MA50 will be turned into a Support for good. And this trendline tends to be the standard Support level during Bull Cycles.
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S&P500 Long and strong on this Channel UpThe S&P500 is extending the rise that we called 2 weeks ago at the bottom (see chart at the end) of the long term Channel Up.
Target (1) was easily and quickly hit and as the price is approaching Resistance Zone (1), we get the potential conditions for a short term pull back.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy any pull back under Resistance Zone (1).
Targets:
1. 4220 (top of the Channel Up and +11.00% rise).
Tips:
1. The MACD (1d) is approaching a Resistance level that has previously initiated short term pull backs.
2. Ultimate long term target is Resistance (2) at 4330, which will fill the gap of August 16th.
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Notes:
This is a continuation of this trading plan:
S&P500 First 4hour Golden Cross in 2.5 months.S&P500 formed the first 4hour Golden Cross since January 16th, breaking above Resistance A.
The RSI is on a Rising Support, same with the previous bullish leg of January.
Following the Golden Cross, the price pulled back to Fibonacci 0.5 and then resumed the uptrend.
Regardless of this potential pullback, we remain bullish on the S&P500 index, with our Target intact at 4280.
Previous chart:
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SPX Markets And What They MeanLots of SPX Traders have been watching for price direction for a long period of time now, tentatively awaiting the next 'big move'. That move hasn't really come and although oscillating to the upside slightly over the part 8 months, price is still more or less where it was at the start.
This leads a lot of Traders wondering why and encourages them to surmise the reason in their head. Is the market just bad? Is it the news? How do I know which?
Well the truth is the market starting falling upon fears economically. This was both natural and inevitable. After large upswings markets have got to come back there is no way to sustain price and debt for such a long period of time, hence the housing crisis and all other crisis that occur.
Over time, something happens to bring it all back down to reality. We then see what you may call a 'hope bounce' and markets return somewhat to normality. This is commonplace across futures and often occurs after sustained periods of movement. In fact, it provides ample hedging room and partly why I trade UK equities so much.
You then get to the stage where people are hoping for a larger recovery. They make bad trades, they load into the market and they ignore Key PA levels and rules. This leads to pain.
So Trade exactly what you can see and when there is no sure sentiment and no blowout reason for up or down, trade factually as labelled on our chart.
Trade small and Trade safe always.
Trading Market Formations And How To Trade Them, PRE FOMCLots and lots of Traders completely misunderstand the idea of how price arranges.
Patterns are simply not magic. They are built from buyers and sellers and to trade any market formation you need to trade INLINE with this.
That means no guessing, rather watching key PA levels.
Also, it means scaling your capital and risk as the market progresses.
AND Trading in the moment.
Watch for more.
Trading The SPX In 2023, What to look forHey Guys,
In this video I'm doing a Analysis of the SPX and what we can look for in 2023. We will also cover what led us to this point and why..
Planning ahead in Trading is essential to success, but only planning the correct way using market inference of previous price and sentiment works..
Happy XMAS and Trade Safe!
S&P Trading.. Look back on the Markets.So we looked short, looked long and now we must make another decision about the direction of the market.
Remember your job as a trader is to INFER whats going on at all times. Noting whether you have seen price action cause the market to move one way or the other.
Once you know this, you can make it a repeatable process.
Lets chat about it.
Financial Wave. spx500Spx500.
The rising wave in SPX brought the index to 4100p. This level may become the last obstacle on the way to new historical highs. The bulls are slowly but surely buying back the market, ignoring the rise in interest rates. We will continue to look SPX and update you on any changes.
Financial Wave. spx500In SPX, price consolidation continues and the uncertainty of further movement remains. In past reviews, we considered the fall of the index as a priority scenario, and we will return to it if the price falls below 3900p. The 4113p and 4322p levels are critical for the downtrend, and if they are overcome, SPX will move into an active growth phase. We’ll continue to monitor and update you on changes to SPX.
SPX Futures.. The way Markets Fall and RiseHey Guys,
I covered this earlier but you must be aware of how markets fall and rise and why and how you must act to be a profitable trader.
1. Do not Race in. If you flick back in time to any fall In Similar markets (or the SPX only) you can see how it trickles down over time. This is because former levels must be broken.
2. Gauge market value. Do not buy Highs and do not sell lows. Just be patience and trade moves.
3. Trade in stages; Linking back to point 1 the markets will fall often in stages giving you the chance to buy and sell over time.
And most importantly CHECK what is going on in the world. It just helps a little to know how far into the woods the global economy is and how long its likely to take to get out!
Important Rules. Be prepared ALWAYS!
Look lower to 3400 and circa 3200 for Future longs. IF we get there. If we do not you shall lose nothing.
SPX and why we read Market news..As we said the SPX will TRICKLE. A lot of the time in falling markets (when it takes time, just read back a bit on the chart) you will stumble.
This is because price levels must be BROKEN. Unless its a dramatic unexpected fall.. Like Covid.
So we PRE Plan for this.
Trading in STAGES not all at once. It's a little better :)
Watch to be Prepared!
SPX and Trading our Plan..Hey Guys, We previously looked at the SPX in such a way as shown in this video.
We are WILLING to hold off on poor market sentiment and take accurate entries.
Once we have taken them we MANAGE our Trading accordingly.
(apologies for the tired / Quiet voice im on holiday in Antibes!