Nothing Weird is Happening with the Corona Virus in US StocksThe market is behaving exactly as it should. There is no special wave counts needed for the entirety of the recent downtrend thus far. I was able to quite easily decipher the Super Cycle wave all the way through the Minor wave for the current downtrend. That being said, due to the extreme volatility I am not trying to get exact dates and times for the waves but I am confident about the rough distances to the next waves and their degrees. I will keep updating my analysis as time progresses.
I would love and am encouraging constructive criticism or feedback if you have a different count than this one.
See my last post for the longer historical term EW count.
SPXUSD
S&P500, next 3 possible scenarios after 1st SELL TP🔄 Update: Exactly as forecasted, the sell hit its target (390 pips) 😁👍
The second sell also as forecasted before is in the order, (in a lower time frame 1H I can see a small flag forming) but it still doesn't fulfill my requirements to take the sell.
So I have 3 ideas at this moment which depicted on the chart, based on likeliness.
1. A continuation of the sharp down move : To the 61.8% retracement which is happened to be 61.8% expansion area of the current bear move (check the first image below 👇)
2. A longer-term consolidation in the current range
3. A sharp impulse up
💬 Please let me know your perspective on this
Happy Trading & stay green! ✌️
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🔗 Check out the "Related ideas..." in the links below too
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📌 Kindly note that Forexian is not a signal provider. The published idea is ONLY our views and analysis of the market!
Forexian does not take any responsibility for your decisions and/or trades.
US indexes potential buys as NFP and technical analysis lines upAt a glance, the US indexes are looking nice for buys. I'm not too sure how to trade them other than speculation or just some technical analysis but I do know how to trade the news with them. We'll wait for BUY indications tomorrow New york session to check it out and potentially get into a BUY trade.
S&P500 SPX LONG SET UP AFTER CORONAVIRUS HIT MARKETBUY LIMIT S&P500
ENTRY 1 3014
ENTRY 2 3006
SL 2980
TP.1 3054 & TP.2 3106
Tp.3 3154 & TP.4 3206
TP.5 3254 & TP.6 3306
Stock market’s 6-day drop flirts with fastest slide into correction territory since 2008
Another sharp fall for U.S. stocks on Thursday pushed major indexes into correction territory, marking a drop of more than 10% from all-time highs. Here’s where major indexes would need to close to formally mark a correction.
MarketWatch · 9 minutes ago
SPX - Eyeing the 200 MA - Market UpdateThe SPX appears to be heading for the 200 daily moving average, this comes after the index fell below the 89 ema and subsequently failed to regain the level after last night's close.
I am expecting to see a near-term relief rally at some point as markets don't like to move straight down or straight up for too long, that being said the technical picture looks rather bleak for the SP-500.
This latest selloff is reminiscent of the Q4 drop in 2018, both in terms of speed and magnitude of the drop, using this as a rough guide (the macro outlook for the two scenarios are very different mind you), this would suggest that a trip to the 200 daily moving average is very much on the cards.
I would most likely expect the bounce to occur at the 200 MA, if it is to occur, but the daily RSI is signalling an oversold condition for the SP-500 so a bounce could materialize at any point.
I have already covered the Macro picture for the SP-500 previously (initial claims, PMI, Yield curve etc.) and the outlook signals a global slowdown, no two ways about it, the Covid19 outbreak could certainly be the catalyst for a prolonged selloff and worst case, the global slowdown.
Will the Fed step in to alleviate the markets?
Most likely yes, but the question is when, the current futures for the March 18th FOMC meeting are pricing in a 36% chance of a rate cut, up from 6.6% just one week ago.
So stimulus is coming, but the question is whether or not more monetary stimulus can offset the global supply chain issues that Covid19 are having on the economy.
www.cmegroup.com <----- FOMC Futures
Kill Zone Reversal Possibility on SPXAs SPX approaches the previously un-violated overhead resistance trend-line (in green)...SPX seems to have bounced. This means that the overhead resistance is now acting as support. Of course there are always two scenarios (it will go up or it will go down), however, The breaks to either the upside or downside are significant in their interpretation.
First, if the SPX continues to bounce off of this support and go higher, this is an extremely bullish outcome. Why? Because SPX will have successfully completed a "kill zone reversal." The kill zone is the green circle on the chart. A kill zone reversal is significant because it shows that a majority of market participants bought at or near the green overhead resistance when it broke the first time. Thus, they will probably not be selling near it anytime soon and the market will continue up. If SPX goes below the green trend-line, this is a bearish indication, as the support broke and there are no close resistance levels.
In short, if the green trend-line holds, then buy SPX calls. This is a shorter term trade until further confirmation. (1 week exp)
If the green trend-line breaks down, sell SPX calls. This is also a short term trade until further confirmation. (1 week exp)
For the short term I have a more bullish sentiment based purely on technicals. Fundamentally, this should be headed back down to 2900-2800 levels because of China trade talk fears.
Good Luck!
TOP 5. Issue 12 from 27.10.2019Weekly update with the outlook on my 5 favorite trading instruments where I place around 90% of the deals.
These include: SPX , Gold , Crude Oil , EURUSD pair and the Emerging markets via USDRUB .
If you like what you see, please fell free to hit the Like bottom and leave your comments.
Disclaimer:
By viewing this video you fully accept and agree that it offers general advice only and that trading the financial markets is a high risk activity and that you understand that past performance does not indicate future performance and that the value of investments and income from them may go up as well as down, and are not guaranteed.
SPX Bearish Divergence on the DailyYou hear that? Shhhh quiet, it's the sound of RSI is trying to tell us something. What is it trying to saying though?
As you can see on my chart, which is admittedly not as colorful as some others on TradingView, the green uptrend line represents overhead resistance which has been respected since 2018.
If we draw a similar line on the RSI we notice what is called "bearish divergence."
Bearish Divergence in the RSI is characterized by a negative relationship between RSI and Price. Meaning that when Price is going up, RSI is going down.
What does this mean for the market and the people participating? It means that investors are becoming less and less convinced of continued rallies.
Less people, or rather volume , are entering into these rallies compared to 2018.
In my view, bearish divergence has always been a great predictor of future occurrence.
Short Term=Neutral
Long Term=Bearis
SPX Bearish Divergence on the DailyYou hear that? Shhhh quiet, it's the sound of RSI is trying to tell us something. What is it trying to saying though?
As you can see on my chart, which is admittedly not as colorful as some others on TradingView, the green uptrend line represents overhead resistance which has been respected since 2018.
If we draw a similar line on the RSI we notice what is called "bearish divergence."
Bearish Divergence in the RSI is characterized by a negative relationship between RSI and Price. Meaning that when Price is going up, RSI is going down.
What does this mean for the market and the people participating? It means that investors are becoming less and less convinced of continued rallies.
Less people, or rather volume, are entering into these rallies compared to 2018.
In my view, bearish divergence has always been a great predictor of future occurrence.
Short Term=Neutral
Long Term=Bearish