Get started

SPXUSD

SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * US November PPI came in at 0.3%, a bit higher than the consensus estimate of 0.2% after rising 0.2% in October . This sent Risk-On markets lower as fears of another 75bps rate hike returned to the table. One good thing about November's PPI is that it increased 7.4% from last November, compared to 8.1% in October. Expectations for China's reopening are continuing to materialize as 28 oil tankers remain backlogged in the Black Sea due to Turkey's recent request for insurance checks on Russian oil tankers . Meanwhile the EU faces an energy crisis exacerbated by recent oil price caps and the Russia/Ukraine war that many fear will spill over into a global financial meltdown . However, if US November CPI prints lower and the FOMC follows through on a loose commitment to a 50bps rate hike, selling pressure may be alleviated in the near term. DXY, US Treasurys, VIX, GBPUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, HSI, NI225, N100, Energy and Metals finished up on the day. US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Agriculture and EURUSD finished down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price finished the day trending down at $3934 after being rejected by the uptrend line from 10/13 as resistance, it's now approaching a retest of $3913 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (moderate) and favored sellers in today's session after favoring buyers in the previous two sessions, a clear indication of PPI induced fears. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4090, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 49 after being rejected by 52.68 resistance, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at 46. Stochastic remains bearish after a bullish crossover attempt was rejected at 5, it is currently trending down at 3.5 as it approaches a retest of max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently testing 33 support. ADX is currently trending down at 15 as Price continues to see selling pressure, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the uptrend line from 10/13 at ~$4k as resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely formally retest $3913 minor support before potentially retesting the 50MA at $3840 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4058.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
💼 SP500 (SPX): ending diagonal ⑤ ●● Preferred count ● S&P 500 - U.S. (^SPX),🕐TF: 60D Fig.1 The current count of long-term waves is already two years old. How much more is allotted to the wave V of (III) no one will tell you. All we are capable of is tracking the shape and structure of the wave, which should manifest itself in the form of a five-wave motive wave. _______________________________________ ● US SP 500 CFD (FOREXCOM),🕐TF: 1W Fig.2 My experience with the Elliott wave suggests that in most cases there is an alternation of motive waves in the positions 1 and 5 of the impulse , as well as waves A and C of a single zigzag . Based on these observations, I expect waves " (C) of ① " and " V of (III) " in the form of ending diagonals . It should be noted that we do not predict the duration and amplitude of fluctuations inside the diagonals. Only the shape of the model. _______________________________________ ● US SP 500 CFD (FOREXCOM),🕐TF: 1D Fig.3 Counting of the internal structure of wave 2 is variable. As will be shown in the alternative marking, there is a possibility that the double zigzag in wave 2 has already formed. _______________________________________ ● US SP 500 CFD (FOREXCOM),🕐TF: 8h Fig.4 At the moment the wave ⓧ of 2 is interpreted as a running flat with a diagonal at the end. The pattern looks complete, probably the resumption of decline within the wave ⓨ from the current level. _______________________________________ _______________________________________ ●● Alternative count ● US SP 500 CFD (FOREXCOM),🕐TF: 1D Fig.5 Variant of wave 2 structure counting in the form of a completed double zigzag ⓦ-ⓧ-ⓨ . _______________________________________ ● US SP 500 CFD (FOREXCOM),🕐TF: 8h Fig.6 Both wave counts, preferred and alternative, offer good trading setups. The ending diagonal (c) of ⓧ within the preferred wave count, as well as the initial diagonal ⓐ of 3 within the alternative count, can be used for an aggressive short position. At the end of the correction in the ⓑ of 3 wave, especially if it takes the form of a triangle , a long position is possible, counting on the resumption of growth within the impulse in the ⓒ of 3 wave. 📚 Elliott Wave Guide & Ellott Wave Archive ⬇️⬇️
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradeWaves-EWA
1
SPX important to hold 3900 level on any test/if any tomorrowIdeal pathway for tomorrow is either gap down or sell after the open to mark new lows in low 3900SPX (3896-3908), then a strong reversal into Fri open Im watching two levels for tomorrow on the upside: - 3965-70SPX - 4000SPX Holding 4k will be important, as it will be a text book test of the broken down bull trend to confirm that the price has marked the top and it's on the way to make new lows. I wont be surprised if the price overshoots to 4025-35 and even 4060+ and reverse hard from those levels. So expect unexpected Here is a zoomed in chart for tomorrow Open above today's highs will be bullish. If it does, watch today's high as support. Maj support tomorrow on closing level is 3933-34SPX, its a bear bull line at this point, closing below we will see mid 38 hundred next! Resistance mentioned above and maj resistance is 4119-20SPX, closing above will push price to mid 41 hundred and even 4200+ Im not in that camp, but cant rule out mid 4k test as overshoot/stop run move. Trading cycle is bearish now, all the way into 19-20th low! Dont want 4120SPX being taken, it will flip to bullish if it does. My trading pathway for tomorrow is to buy am lows and ride it at least into the close or at least 3960-70SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX is at support levelNothing much to add since yesterday's updates. Im looking up for a breakdown trendline test. If its very bearish, then it can just get to 3965-70SPX and stop there. That would mean much lower levels are coming this month! Ideal pathway is to test 4k level and reverse down. That would be your shorting opportunity The whole move off CPI will be erased next! If it happens before the CPI on the 13th, be ware of a move down to 3400-3500!!! So be careful if long here! especially if we stop at 3970SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 35% SPX, 65% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . It's volatile week with investors preparing for another FFR hike (12/14) that is widely expected to be 50bps (with a chance at 75bps) as China continues to formally lax their Covid-Zero restrictions in major cities like Beijing where people with a negative PCR test result are now allowed to congregate in certain public places . This has investors torn over a China reopening rally and more flight from Risk-On assets to DXY and US Treasurys with further FFR hikes. Russia continues to bombard Ukrainian energy infrastructure as Russia prepares to ban the sale of Russian oil to buyers participating in the new $60 price cap imposed by the G7 yesterday . In the coming years it would be reasonable to expect more of a push toward renewables like Solar energy in response to the geopolitical factors that are causing oil prices to be unsustainably volatile. VIX, Metals, Agriculture, NI225, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. DXY, US Treasurys, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos (mixed), Energy, CNYUSD and N100 are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23 .* Price is currently trending down at $3954 as it approaches a $3913 minor support after being rejected by the 200MA (~$4058 minor resistance). Volume is currently Low (moderate) and on track to favor sellers for a second consecutive session if it closes today's session in the red. The VP Point of Control is at $3913 minor support. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $4102, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending down at 50 as it tests 52.68 support, the next support is the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~46. Stochastic remains bearish and is currently trending down at 28, the next support is at 17. MACD crossed over bearish in today's session and is currently trending down at 48 as it risks losing 55.35 minor support if it breaks down further. ADX is currently trending down at 18.53 as Price is also trending down, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here then it will likely retest the 200MA at ~$4040 as resistance before potentially retesting $4058 minor resistance . However, if Price continues to break down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close above) $4040 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
1
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 65% SPX, 35% Cash . * US EMPLOYMENT SITUATION WATCH . If Unemployment reports higher tomorrow (which with the amount of layoffs in corporate USA these days would be reasonable), this would signal that the FOMC's monetary policy is becoming increasingly effective and they will likely go ahead with their 50bps rate hike on 12/14. This may be considered bullish by markets but it would be prudent to expect for a bit of volatility tomorrow regardless. October's PCE Index was reported (6% vs 6.3% in September) at 12:45pm EST today , when it should've been reported at 830am EST today; why this happened, who knows? Why it (Core PCE) reflected exactly what Fed Chair Jerome Powell forecasted in his speech at the Brookings Institute yesterday, who knows? Powell (and the Fed) forecasted Core PCE dropping from 5.1% (5.2% revised) to 5%, that's exactly what was reported today. The 7th GDPNow US Q4 GDP estimate came in at 2.8% down from 4.3% on 11/23 . Russia Foreign Minister Lavrov justified recent attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure as a means of defending Russia from "inherent risks" and condemned NATO and the USA for participating in the defense of Ukraine . France and the USA agreed to continue supporting Ukraine . Meanwhile, the Pentagon reported that China conducted more ballistic missile tests than the rest of the world combined in 2021 but that there are doubts regarding whether or not they can achieve their goals of becoming a military superpower by 2027 . HSI, NI225, N100, GBPUSD, EURUSD, JPYUSD, CNYUSD, Energy, Agriculture and Metals were up today. DXY, US Treasurys, US Equities, US Equity Futures, Cryptos and VIX were down. Key Upcoming Dates: November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02 ; US November PPI 830am EST 12/09; US November CPI 830am EST 12/13; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14; US November New Residential Construction at 830am EST 12/20; US Final Q3 GDP Estimate at 830am EST 12/22; US November PCE Index at 830am EST 12/23; UofM Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 12/23. * Price attempted to push higher in today's session and finished at $4076 after briefly testing the 200MA which coincided with $4058 minor support. Volume finished today's session Moderate (high) and favored sellers after favoring buyers in yesterday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3938, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 62.5 after forming a soft peak at 63.5, the next support is at 52.68 and resistance at 68.42. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session after bouncing off of 68 support and is currently trending up at 83. MACD remains bullish after defying a bearish crossover and is currently trending up slightly at 62, it's still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price attempts to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment and would become bullish if it maintains this correlation over 25. If Price is able to establish support at $4058 minor support then the next likely target is a retest of the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at around $4175 resistance (this would present a very critical resistance). However, if Price breaks down below $4058 minor support as well as the 200MA at $4048 as support , it will likely retest $3913 minor support. Mental SL: (one close below) $4032 .
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
2
SPX what a day! Close above 4075SPXNow the next target is the ideal extension target 4119+- few points Ideally we get that number tested by the 5th and see 3750 filled EOM It was a panic cycle day and I did mention about it many times in my posts. One was done during my last night update together with the explanation. We got that a move in one direction above previous high or low, it was up the upside. Also mentioned that it was holding well during the day and huge calls activity. I did trade lotto SPY 408 Dec 1st calls, bought 20 at 6.5c on average, exited at 57 and most of it at 1.08-1.35, amazing lotto Also did few NQ calls, was restriking all afternoon taking profits on those in green, still have 2 running for tomorrow's am exit if not tonight Careful with being long here as the upside is limited and usually the FED day gets reversed by Fri, will it be the same this time, I dont know. There is a good short setup around 4120SPX level, no need to chase the market at this point if missed the long play today
SP:SPX
by RealTima
14
SPX pathway going into tomorrowIf the price will gap down from the open, I expect the price to hit low 39 hundred. The a rally into the FED speech, where more volatility is expected. All day today the price stopped at 10EMA on 1h, not a bullish sign Its a panic cycle day, a move, explanation below: - Given their abrupt or dramatic nature, panic cycles do not necessarily reflect changes in trend or a new high or low—they tend to align to short-term moves or temporary corrections. - A relatively fast, one-way price move, either exceeding a previous high or penetrating a previous low, but not both. My pathway for tomorrow is: - open (gap down) and test low 3900 - rally back to 3970-80SPX (important to hold on any test) - strong sell after Powell opens his mouth Im expecting bottom on Dec 1st. Also tomorrow can produce a very strong selling (if happens, then only after Powell speaking) and it should follow through into the next day. Ideally we retrace all the way to Oct 13th low, it will be a huge buy for a rally back to 3850+ at min by Dec 5-6th. The low is expected by Dec OPEX. The cycles might get inverted, so tomorrow's move will be important to determine a low or a high by Dec OPEX Tomorrow (again IF we start breaking down hard) must close below 3906SPX for a double reversal confirmation. That close will confirm the move down to test 3744-50SPX Resistance is at 3975-80, 4001-10.50, then gap fill and 4037-45SPX, closing above will produce a next target 4120SPX I might be tweeting my trades life tomorrow Have a good night
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
SPX pathway to close the CPI gap if the FED does not pivotI dont see the FED to pivot any time soon. It can be another Jackson Hall event which will start a new directional move. My ideal pathway is the low around Dec OPEX and high early Jan (might be the 200MA test) Must hold numbers on closing level for tomorrow are: - 3944.50-45 - 3906.50 Both are maj support zones. Second number fits the best with other trendlines align around 3906-14SPX level If the price will get a 4k test in am, it will be a perfect short for a move down to 3944SPX a min if not more. Both long and short setups are coming, be patient if not in a trade already, be patient if you're I gave you the levels to watch, feel free to use them for your own homework. Have a good night.
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
6
SPX DailyThere is a potential H&S on longer time frame I mentioned before, noted on this chart as well Must hold support for the next week is at 3898-3920SPX. Has to hold on any test, otherwise the price will revisit the Oct 13th gap very quickly My ideal pathway is bottom on the 1st (I still see month of Nov close red at least compare to the previous month) and bounce into the 6th-7th high. If cycles gets inverted, then we should see the low tomorrow and high on the 1st, then it will be a first low on the 6-7th The best scenario for the EOM trade is we see low prices tomorrow am and bounce into 29th high. Then (after the 29th high) reversal down (strong) for the 1st of Dec low. 30th is showing up as a panic day on all indexes, so expect a strong move in direction of the 29th close. - The price might get the gap closed on the 29th (ideal pathway) and continue in a strong move down. Ideally its closes in direction down, it will be a good confirmation for the price going lower into the 1st low. - Ideal target is 3744-55SPX or Oct 13th gap close After the 1st low, it gets tricky. Its either makes a low on the 6th and up into the week of Dec 26th or, ideally a high and down into EOY. Jan seems to be the monthly low of this entire move down from the ATH, perfect 1 year celebration. Intraday low might not come till Mar or even May. Here is zoomed in chart link There is not much of a support below 3866 till 3744SPX, its the must hold Bear/Bull support for the next week. If looking for the extensions, I have resistance at - 4037 - 4045 - 4068-76 (main target) - 4118-20 (Maj resistance) Will be tweeting my other simple chart as can't attach it here. Im swing short and will use the next high to exit all the remaining protective longs I have. Have a great and profitable week everyone!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
2
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * CRITICAL RESISTANCE WATCH . US Equity Futures are starting the week down as Cryptos are attempting to finish the week up (barely). Markets are apparently getting spooked by the unrest in China and how it may affect demand if the CCP is to enforce stricter lockdowns with the uptick in Covid infections. It's unprecedented to see this kind of revolt in China in modern times, with chants in Shanghai for the CCP and Xi Jinping to step down ; all I can say is, bravo to the Chinese citizens for standing up to the scam that is Covid lockdowns. It's a big week for economic data so be prepared for a bit of volatility if the numbers point to more inflation. JPYUSD is up. Meanwhile DXY, US Treasuries, US Equity Futures, Cryptos, Metals, Energy, Agriculture, HSI, NI225, CNYUSD, GBPUSD and EURUSD are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14 .* Price finished last week stalling at $4026, just below $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume was Low (high) due to a shortened trading session and has favored buyers for three consecutive sessions; it has also been shrinking for ten consecutive sessions which is indicative of an impending breakout/breakdown. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3867, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending sideways at 62; the next resistance is at 68 and the next support at 53. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 97 as it approaches a retest of max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 62 but is still technically testing 55 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 21 as Price continues to push higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment. If Price is able to breakout above $4058 minor resistance + the 200MA then it will likely retest the upper trendline of the descending channel from November 2021 at $4175 resistance for the first time since 08/22/22. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely fall back to ~$3953 as support before potentially retesting $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 60% SPX, 40% Cash. **Happy Thanksgiving. Thank you for reading, I hope I've helped you navigate the markets in 2022. Through helping you, it has helped me develop a better understanding of what moves markets and I'm grateful.** *Tomorrow is a short day for trading with US stock markets closing at 1pm and Bond markets closing at 2pm. Equity Markets are still riding the "Fed pivot" narrative that has been flourishing since the FOMC Minutes were published yesterday but it's important to remember that Russia is continuing to weaken Ukraine's power grid and that war and supply chain disruptions can escalate at any given time. Binance CEO CZ announced that Binance.US is making another bid for bankrupt crypto lender Voyager after FTX was unable to complete the acquisition . Binance also announced a 1B BUSD crypto recovery fund (Industry Recovery Initiative) for companies seeking support during the crypto winter . CZ is preaching transparency and even listed the public address for Binance's initial commitment of 1B BUSD, which sounds good in theory but to be honest everyone should be a bit wary of exchange tokens right now; I think it's justifiable to be skeptical of Binance's solvency but as of now it's between them, Coinbase and Kraken when it comes to the top 3 crypto exchanges. There's not too much going on in terms of key economic data until next Wednesday. US Equity Futures, DXY, Oil, Gold, N100, GBPUSD, EURUSD and JPYUSD are up. US Treasury Bonds, Cryptos, Natural Gas, CNYUSD, NI225 and HSI are down. Key Upcoming Dates: US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 11/29; 2nd BEA Estimate of US Q3 GDP at 830am EST 11/30; Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at Brookings Institute at 130pm EST 11/30; Beige Book at 2pm EST 11/30; October PCE Index at 830am EST 12/01; November Employment Situation at 830am EST 12/02; Last FOMC Rate Hike Announcement of 2022 at 2pm EST 12/14. * Price finished yesterday's session trending up at $4027 as it approaches a test of $4058 minor resistance which coincides with the 200MA. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored buyers for the previous two sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3844, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up slightly at 62, the next resistance is at 68.42. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up at 82 as it approaches a retest of max top (it's currently in the "bullish autobahn zone"). MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at 61 as it attempts to break above 55.35 minor resistance; if it can do this it will aim to retest the ATH at 92.49. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 20 as Price pushes higher, this is mildly bullish at the moment and would become strongly bullish if it can continue this correlation above 25. If Price is able to push higher here then it will likely test $4058 minor resistance which would coincide with the 200MA. However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3913 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3953.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX gapped up in am and retested the trendline from the topSPX gaped up in am and retested the broken trendline from the top, a perfect long for those who traded my call from last night. I did warn that this can test 4007SPX, its getting close to it. Did few long trades in am, not touching this till tomorrow. FED should be a perfect catalysis for the top. If the price will hold 3946-49SPX tomorrow instead of making a new high and crap, then I would be looking for another extension to 4068 with holiday volume by the 28th high. From where I do expect a strong move down into Dec 1st low. Dec 1st low should produce a good long opportunity and ideally it will hit 3744-50SPX. Should see an easy 150 points into Dec 6th if not more. The setup is coming and its tomorrow. I will be on most of the day and will tweet my trades life.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
SPX nothing has changed for meLonger term its in bear market. Short term mid range, hard to make a good reading for either up or down move. My best guess we will see 4k and go down to 3875 if not 3750. One thing to note/repeat is EOM will be very strong in selling, at least thats how I see it, and the bottom wont come till the 1st of Dec. My pathway is lower into 22-24th, up into the Cyber Monday and very strong down move into Dec 1st low. I dont see any Santa Rally. Too many still hoping for one and I have a feeling its not coming, but will be lower into at least mid of Dec low! Then a rally into mid Jan high and continuing much lower (strongest move with VIX capitulation) into Mar low, After that Im going to trade mostly in upside into May and then Aug high. Level for tomorrow to watch is the same it was for the whole last week - 4010.50SPX Rejecting it one more time will be a perfect short or exit for a move to 3750SPX Ideally we have one more spike to 4007SPX or so and hard rejection. Have a profitable week everyone and dont get trapped after Wed Fed shenanigans (ideally a fake rally and sell from there into 24th low)
SP:SPX
by RealTima
12
ES above 4001 it explodes, below 3960 goes down to 3900-10I have marked resistance to take and support to break. Did a quick long from 3972.5 long and already out at 3983.50. I will jump on a wagon if it break either side, so far no mans land, need to see the real move here. My thinking is that we get a fakeout in am and sell off into 3900. But I will be looking at the resistance test (if it breaks) and will do a long with a stop. There is a clear bull flag and as well as roofing pattern on the charts, so really need to see a move in a right direction to enter into a trade, waiting at this point There is a turning day tomorrow and the day after. I wont rule out a cycle inversion and a high on the 21-22nd instead of a low. The maj resistance/support levels were provided. Closing above 4010.50SPX will be bullish going into the next cycle of importance. There is a huge option flow to expire on Fri, so a fakeout and dump from there is very possible A close around 385 will be ideal to kill all the premium out there. There is also a big 390 put wall for this Fri exp. Main support for the SPX is at 3750. Daily supports are at 3950-52SPX and then down at 3907-13SPX Have a good night
CME_MINI:ES1!
by RealTima
4