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SPXUSD

SPX Daily TA Cautiously BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bullish. Recommended ratio: 70% SPX, 30% Cash. *Equity Futures are up to start the week and Cryptos are currently seeing some Sunday Scaries, this particular combination typically bodes well for the Equity bulls in Monday's trading session. DXY is up and US Treasuries are down. Today Russia accused Ukraine of planning to detonate a 'dirty bomb' (an explosive with radioactive elements) with hopes of blaming Russia for using weapons of mass destruction and instigating a response from NATO . Key Upcoming Dates: S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24 ; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; 20th and Final GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending up at ~$3752 after bouncing from $3658 minor support, the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume is currently High (low) and trading in the third largest supply/demand zone as it broke a three day streak of seller dominance with a green close in Friday's session. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $3507, this margin is mildly bearish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 51 as it approaches a retest of 52.68 resistance for the first time since 09/12/22. Stochastic is currently crossing over bearish at 88 in the 'bullish autobahn zone', as long as it stays above ~85 this would still be bullish. MACD remains bullish and is currently testing -43.84 resistance for the first time since July of this year. ADX is currently trending down at 29.36 as Price keeps pushing higher, this is mildly bearish at the moment. If Price is able to continue up here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance before potentially retesting the 50 MA at ~$3900 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down here, it will likely retest $3658 minor support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX is in mid range decision pointHappy Sunday everyone Here is a 4h chart. We are getting close to the breakout point, has to hold at that upper trendline Main resistance is at 3775SPX, dont rule out a fakeout into 3800 to finish up C wave up. - If breakout happens, will be watching for the test of the breakout trenline from the bottom and if broken out from the top. - Will do a long trade on the test with a tight stop (if breakout happens) - 3800-20SPX will be a very important level to watch or 3798SPX on closing level (bull/bear closing number) - above 3820SPX we will see 3910-25SPX Few things to mention: - TRIN is at .69 on Fri close (can mark a top or within 2 days) - VIX at support - All main moving averages are pointing down - Bull flag broken to the upside on Fri (something to pay attention to!) - Right shoulder is getting close to invalidate, watching Will be watching 3800 and 3645 SPX levels this coming week. We have a directional change tomorrow as well as following Tuesday. My thinking we will turn down hard on Monday and bottom on Tuesday fulfilling cycle low on the 24th Then rally into the 27th high and down again into EOM or 2-4th of Nov Will be looking a rally after the Midterms, which will be short lived. A maj low on week of Nov 21st and then rally into Jan Nov low will be a good swing long imo will be looking for dips to buy after that low is behind us. Will post long term view next
SP:SPX
by RealTima
10
Chop Chop continues. Its Friday - Dont Overtrade!No follow through today, really in a no mans land. A bull flag is a worry for the bears and the H&S (which is quite big) is a worry for the bulls. Peak your side:) Wont rule out a move to 3770-80SPX to have everyone believe that we have broken the bull flag to the upside, then we finally reverse and re-visit Oct 2nd low at min Im seating out and waiting for a right setup to come as well as holding my swing short. Dont want to miss the bus when the things starts moving. Its Friday, DO NOT OVER-TRADE! Keep your weekly gains, dont give those back!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
16
S&P500 Bullish Divergence on RSI targets 4000 short-termThe S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Bearish Megaphone pattern through this Bear Cycle of 2022. Since August 31, despite having the candle action on Lower Lows, the RSI on the 4H time-frame has been on Higher Lows, i.e. flashing a Bullish Divergence. The only other time that this took place within this Bear Cycle was early on from January 21 to February 24. As you see on this chart, during that early 2022 sequence, when the RSI broke above its Lower Highs, the price also broke above its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and targeted the top of the Bearish Megaphone within the 0.618 and 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The 0.618 Fib is currently just over the 4000 level. Also note that yesterday the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) crossed below the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) forming a Bearish Cross. The last time we had that formation was on February 24, exactly on the (short-term) bottom at that time. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:SPXLong
by TradingShot
7
SPX can be at the begging of a very stip downtrend channelSmall disclaimer: - Im not calling for a crash, but expressing a high chance (in my personal opinion based on my own homework) scenario to play out within a month time frame! - When we are out of the crash window, I will reduce this possibility to bare minimum! For this scenario to play-out (not a trading advice, just a possibility), we need a daily close below 3450-55SPX, then its in a clear fall. - Invalidation point is a move above 3840-50SPX on closing basis. Then the whole pathway is a trash Perfect first cycle low early Nov, if not last day(s) of Oct and main cycle low for this year is on week 21st of Nov (+2 or -1 day). Supports are on the chart, again if it starts falling (which I think we will) soon. First big low should come on the 24th of Oct imo. Moon cycle crash window is from 20-24th. If it misses, then no crash and maybe we just bottom at 34 handle or 32 handle (my ideal target all year) max. Please keep in mind, that this is not my main pathway till 3450-55SPX is broken on daily level, must close below it, better for 2 days straight. I will be updating support levels on the go (if this plays out), but main support levels (lines) are on the chart. Will be updating more in this thread tomorrow with smaller timeframe charts
SP:SPX
by RealTima
7
SPX Daily TA Neutral BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bearish bias. Recommended ratio: 45% SPX, 55% Cash. * On Saturday, the Chinese Foreign Ministry urged Chinese citizens still living and working in Ukraine to evacuate as soon as possible . In what Russia claims to a be a response to "acts of terrorism" on Russian people after the Crimean bridge bombing, Russia has now switched to include civilian buildings as attack targets after previously only targeting military property. Russia continues to position itself in ways that it can respond to "acts of terrorism", whether they use nuclear/chemical weapons to do so is now the question. Equity Futures are currently up while DXY and US Treasuries are down which means the week could potentially start with a bounce. Key Upcoming Dates: US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19; 19th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate 10/19; S&P US October Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/24; US October Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 10/25; US September New Home Sales at 10am EST 10/26; US Q3 GDP First Estimate at 830am EST 10/27; US September PCE Price Index at 8am 10/28; FOMC Statement at 2pm EST 11/02.* Price is currently trending down at $3583 as it technically tests the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3623 as support after breaking back below $3658 minor resistance. Volume remains Moderate (high) and has favored sellers in six of the past seven sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3766, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently testing 38 support after forming a peak at the uptrend line from 01/27/22 at ~41 as resistance. Stochastic remains bullish for a second consecutive session and is currently trending up slightly at 60 after bouncing off of 48 support. MACD is currently on the verge of reverting to a bearish crossover at -85 after being bullish for two sessions, it it crosses below -87 it would be bearish crossover. ADX continues to trend up slightly and is now beginning to form a soft peak at 32 as Price is trending back down after the rejection at $3658 minor resistance, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to bounce here and get back above the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3620 (as resistance) then it will have to close above $3658 minor resistance a couple of times before retesting the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3780 as resistance . However, if Price continues to trend down here, it will likely retest $3517 minor support and potentially lower to $3383 support . Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% BTC, 48% Cash. * SHORT SQUEEZE WATCH . US September CPI came in 0.4% higher than in August compared to a 0.1% increase from July to August , and CPI without Food + Energy came in 0.6% higher, signifying that the decrease in fuel prices wasn't enough to slow inflation. This leaves the Federal Reserve in a comfortable position to raise another 75bps or more on November 2nd. Markets initially dumped on this news but have since rallied with Equities, Equity Futures, Cryptos, Energy, Agriculture, US Treasuries, EURUSD, GBPUSD and CNYUSD all now up on the day; DXY, VIX, JPYUSD and Gold are down. Very 2022, and very "short squeeze" vibes. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Retails Sales at 830am EST 10/14; 18th GDPNow US Q3 GDP Estimate 10/14; UofM October Consumer Sentiment Index at 10am EST 10/15; US September Building Permits and Housing Starts at 830am EST 10/19.* Price is currently trending up at $3685 and is testing $3658 minor resistance after bouncing off of $3517 minor support. Volume remains Moderate (high) and is currently on track to end a 5 day streak of seller dominance if it can close today in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3785, this margin is mildly bullish at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 44 as it retests the uptrend line from January 2022 at ~42 after bouncing just above the uptrend line from August 2015 at 35. Stochastic crossed over bullish today and is currently trending up at 58 as it bounces off of 48 support. MACD reverted to a bullish crossover today and is currently trending up at -83 as it approaches a retest of the uptrend line from March 2020 at -76 minor resistance. ADX is currently trending up slightly at 31 as Price shot up today, because this is an extremely volatile surge this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to reestablish support at $3658 minor resistance then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price is rejected here, it will likely retest the weak descending trendline from July 2021 at ~$3600 as support . Mental Stop Loss: (one close below) $3600.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX pivot points!Check out how the daily Pivots aligning!!! I expect S2 to hit if it break this week! - 3228SPX, my target was 3212, close enough Ideally we hit S3 on this one! - is at low 2800!!! Perfect storm is getting ready! If we rally tomorrow, I will short EOD close and add on Wednesday Dont tell me that i didnt warn about this possibility of much much lower levels to be seen in end of Oct to Nov 21st week timeframe! Timing is everything is this game, Do Not Get Trapped!
SP:SPXShort
by RealTima
30
SPX last night email update chartMorning everyone, Im sharing my last night work with you here. This was sent out to those who are on my email list. It was a long update, I will copy paste only important stuff here: I think we get Jun low to Aug high type of move but much faster. Looking at the zoomed in chart (4h white background chart) - You can see that I expect to have a deep pullback into Fri (ideal target is 3680-70SPX), another move up from there either to 3875SPX to finish up the whole move up of this 4th wave. - Or we get Jun to Aug (but faster) move off the lows and get a move from upcoming Fri low back to 3785, down to 3645 and final strong move up to 4040-4100SPX. This pathway will make the next high not mid month but closer to the EOM (making higher monthly close) After mid or end of the month high expect the final move down early Nov to finish up the whole move down of A wave from Jan high and mark the low for the year. Targets to hit: - If the price makes 4040-4100SPX , then the first target will be back to just a bit under 3600SPX - Ideal target zone is 3475 and 3389-95SPX - 3212SPX is the extended target Trading plan for the rest of the week. - Looking to start taking off my swing short at 3715-20SPX level and will start layering with longs there 25% - Exit full short position at 3670-80SPX level and get 50% more longs to make it 75% long position - In case we hit (less odds) 3640SPX I will be 125% long, otherwise I will add on a move above 3755-3760 test and hold. On the simple daily SPX chart 110MA is below 50MA can be the main target to hit next, need to close above the mid Bollinger, which I think will happen on the move up after Fri low. I really think the price should close the last gap from 3678SPX before the move up resumes. I want to see a price gap down below 3750 from the open to have my plan playing out. 3640SPX is a very important number to hold on any closing level! Numbers of importance for tomorrow: Resistance: - 3876SPX (closing above should see 3960SPX next) Support: - 3749-50SPX, closing below should see below 3700 next - 3715-20SPX - 3670-80SPX - 3640-45SPX
SP:SPX
by RealTima
48
SPX supports to holdThe price is finally giving up, recent history is showing that the rallies are lasting 2 days, will it repeat today and we close red, we will see. Numbers of importance for today: Support: - 3749 (on closing level) - 3712.40 - 3680-88SPX (Again this number as an important) support, now becomes an ideal target) - 3640.50 is a final must hold on any close today and tomorrow Resistance: - 3830 - 3860 - 3875 Tomorrow must be very careful with longs! this can really fall tomorrow if no turn today.
SP:SPX
by RealTima
8
SPX quick update15min is diverging down, watch for 3731-32 print (I have few to short there), we came close enough though. That resistance line above it what must hold on any test, it will be quite bearish if it does today/tomorrow. Needs a gap up to confirm the low is in. I have trimmed my longs and entered with SPY Oct exp 351P, also have order to short at numbers mentioned above. For tomorrow Im looking for a higher low and move above that resistance to test the trendlines above at 3750 3750-60SPX is the next resistance after 3725-35SPX Im not shorting here till I see my 3731
SP:SPX
by RealTima
32
SPX Daily TA Neutral BullishSPXUSD daily guidance is neutral with a bullish bias. Recommended ratio: 52% SPX, 48% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . Chicago Fed President Charles Evans mentioned yesterday that FFR will likely top out around March of 2023 . DXY, US Treasuries and VIX are finally down today while Equities, Futures, Commodities, Cryptos, EURUSD and GBPUSD are all up. I think it's safe to say that this price action is in large part a technical correction due to DXY being a bit overbought. Key Upcoming Dates: Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30; S&P US September Manufacturing PMI at 945am EST 10/03; September Employment Situation at 830am EST 10/07.* Price bounced off of $3658 minor support (level has been revised since last TA) and is currently trending up at ~$3718, the next resistance is the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800. Volume is currently High (low) and on track to break a six day streak of seller dominance if it can close today's session in the green. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3850, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending up at 36 after bouncing off the uptrend line from August 2015 at ~32, the next resistance is at 38. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up at 13 as it approaches a test of 18 resistance. MACD remains bearish but is currently trending sideways at -100 as it is begins to form a trough, it is still technically testing -76.22 minor support and the uptrend line from March 2020 (~-80). ADX is currently trending up at 27 with no signs of peak formation as Price tests this critical minor support ($3658), this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to continue the bounce then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price breaks down below $3658 minor support , it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $3658.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
Very important place to hold, I think it wontSo close to new lows. DOW already made one last Fri. SPX to make today or tomorrow imo. Too many stops below that low Jun low, Im sure algos will shave those, before turn. Fear and Greed is at Extreme fear levels, VIX is above 31-32, perfect bottoming indicators to me Below the support line (3662-58) we will see 3636-20 and my ideal target 3588 Im not going long till tomorrow BTW ES already broken support and last night low and just needs a continuation
SP:SPX
by RealTima
23
SPX Daily TA Cautiously BearishSPXUSD daily guidance is cautiously bearish. Recommended ratio: 20% SPX, 80% Cash. * BOUNCE WATCH . Equity Indexes and Equity Futures are down, as are Commodities, GBPUSD and EURUSD... meanwhile DXY, US Treasuries, VIX and Cryptos are up. Interestingly, Cryptos have been defiant recently in the sense that they have held key supports in what can be seen as an attempt to decouple from Equities that have continued to crash as DXY keeps pushing higher. Though decoupling sounds nice in theory, until it is confirmed this is likely a delayed reaction for Equities considering that Ethereum fell ~80% from its ATH and SPX has fallen ~25% from its ATH. Key Upcoming Dates: September US Consumer Confidence Index at 10am EST 09/27 ; August US New-Home Sales at 10am EST 09/27 ; 14th GDPNow US Q3 GDP estimate at 10am EST 09/27 ; Final US Q2 GDP revision at 830am EST 09/29; August US PCE price index at 830am EST 09/30.* Price is currently trending down at ~$3660 as it risks losing $3707 minor support, if it can't bounce here then the next support (minor) is at $3516. Volume is currently Low and on track to favor sellers for a fifth consecutive session if it closes today in the red. Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $3945, this margin is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down at 27.25 and is still technically testing 28.63 minor support as well as the uptrend line from August 2015 (32). Stochastic remains bearish and is currently attempting to complete a trough formation at max bottom. MACD remains bearish and is currently trending down at -92.25 as it's still technically testing both -76.22 minor support and the uptrend line from August 2015 (~-82) as support. ADX is currently trending up at 25 as Price continues to fall, this is bearish. If Price is able to bounce here it will have to close above $3707 minor support for it to potentially retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from August 2021 at ~$3800 as resistance . However, if Price continues to fall here then it will likely retest $3517 minor support for the first time since November 2020. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes above) $3707.
SP:SPX
by dailytaguy
SPX both supports broke down (added ES chart)We got my green open but it didnt really continue, I did few longs, still have one running in case its bottoming here But wont be surprised of bigger down days to come, 27th should mark some sort of a low in turn around Tuesday. I think we hit 3680 at min, be careful on the long side. The price is so weak cant even bounce much, means consolidation for lower levels. 3721 and 3636 are both maj supports to watch! (on closing level) Its a short the rip game till its not As you can see only ES is holding from falling apart
SP:SPX
by RealTima
SPX to retest broken trendline from the bottomMain resistance for the SPX is: - 3942 - 3952-60 Support cluster is still the same: - 3802-3817 - 3750-55 and much lower (check my last SPX update) Im currently long ES and some SPY calls and will be adding to my swing short NQ position tomorrow and ideally on Wednesday. - 3955 and 3975 are the 2 numbers where I will be adding to my short position. In case of a super bullish case (like the one in NQ going to 12700), next resistance level to short is: - 4025-35 So far Im looking for lower level, again please see my latest SPX update (link above) And I think there is one big move down is coming up very soon. Ideally we bottom on the 27-29th and rally hard into early Oct where we should see lower prices printed before this is over and another 11-14% rally starts Have a good night P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
4
Posted this on the 12th of Sep, playing out so well!!!I did post this warning on Sep 12th as well as emailed to those who are on my email list. Check the MACD on that day and now! It created a hook and continued lower, bearish! Some people noted and didnt get trapped on that day, it was daily high close DO NOT GET TRAPPED Today!!! Dont short this red whole! Have to leave, will be back in few hours, again dont get trapped on the short side today! P.S. Dont forget to like (click star-ship button) my posts, so it gets pushed up on TV for others to see as well. Thanks in advance!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
19
SPX Sep 15th mid day updateI was sleeping in today, no point to trade this market but hold swing short position. Mid Bollinger or 20MA crossed 110MA on daily, not a good sign for the bulls. MACD is still making new lows. This seems to get to 3680SPX by the FOMC decision or right after. Main resistance now is at 4030-45SPX Mid resistance is at 3970-85SPX and I think we wont get above on any test, like it came short yesterday. I will short 3970-85 level for a continuation of this move down So far its breaking down here to my eyes and should follow through soon. Main support is at 3880-86 now! On closing level I will be trying long at 3880-86SPX tomorrow am, but its OPEX day and all the quarterly hedges will be off the lines and this can unleash much bigger swings in both directions, but main direction is down. After the FOMC meeting 3680 should produce a good size bounce and ideally we see lower in Oct, 35-34 handle is very doable imo. So need to over trade this as it chops both sides!
SP:SPX
by RealTima
6
Selling coming in hot!MoM economic reports are beginning to show very meager results. Optimism is slowly fading out, and we're starting to have more bears in the market. Impact from interest rate hikes will take a while to show. Middle and lower income are feeling the pinch, but the market has been more resilient as we have learnt from history. The retail stock market hasn't come to a point where they need to liquidate for their livelihood or they can't take the pain from buying the bear rally. Whatever it is, we do see multiple bear rallies on the lower time frame. Zooming out, we are still in that downtrend, and rightfully so. Strong resistance become support @ 3900 is being re-tested for the 3rd time. Will it hold and close the week above support? Calling for sells on break and re-test of 3900, if it fails to break back above the key price zone of strong support/resistance.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by geneAnalytics