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SPXUSD

S&P500 Low target achieved. Time to rise now.On last week's analysis on S&P500, we called for a pull-back targeting 4400: The target has now been hit and as the price hit both the 1D MA50 (red trend-line) and the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), the conditions started to be fulfilled for a rise again. The fractal that helped me identify the incoming correction to 4400 was the one in November 2021, which also pulled-back after a Head and Shoulders formed the top. The only parameter that has been left unrealized is contact with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level. However we can argue that 4390 is as close to 4372 it can get. The RSI patterns of the two fractals continue to be identical. Once the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), which on December 06 2021 was the confirmation for the rise, breaks, we expect a test of the 4750 Resistance (1). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 can rise temporarily but 4400 likely mid-term.S&P500 print a Head & Shoulders pattern last week and naturally dropped below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in two weeks (since March 15). The pull-back is now neutralized and we see today a bullish reaction. This rise can be temporary and even though a test of the recent High is possible, it is more likely to see in the medium-term a test of the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and even lower. The guide for this is the fact that both price wise and based on the RSI on the 4H time-frame, the rise since the March 15 low is quite similar to that of October 01 - November 10 2021. As you see on the chart, the index formed a similar Head and Shoulders pattern that initially dropped below the 4H MA50 and even though it made one last mini-rally to the Head of the formation, it eventually pulled much lower, below the 4H MA200 and 1D MA50 (red trend-line). Currently this rough pull-back projection is around 4400. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
1
S&P500 Critical do-or-die test of the 4H MA200-1DMA50 ResistanceThe S&P500 index just made an important move today, by closing (even marginally) a 4H candle above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), for the first time since January 13 (practically the start of the correction). So far it appears that it is following the fractal pattern I suggested at the start of the month with high precision: As you see, the only barriers left based on this comparison are the Lower Highs trend-line since the All Time High (ATH) and the 1D MA50 (which on today's analysis is illustrated in red). Technically we can say that the ultimate Resistance Zone is the area within the 4H MA200 and the 1D MA50. A candle close above it, should push the index towards the 0.618 Fibonacci (4545) and the February Resistance (4595), which had two rejections on February 02 and 09. Similarly a break above that zone should set in motion a full recovery towards the ATH. On the other hand, if the price gets rejected within the 4H MA200 - 1D MA50 Resistance Zone, it should pull-back initially to the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). A break/ close below that trend-line targets the 4140 - 4107 Support Zone made of the two recent lows. The scenario of a break even below those lows, has SPX going for the Lower Lows trend-line and then (after possibly a re-test of the 4H MA50 as Resistance) the -0.236 Fibonacci extension. But I will make an update in such case. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
4
S&P Bear Trap Risk This is a bit of a quickpost because the main thesis, that the S&P 500 is in a bear trap, seems pretty apparent from a charting approach. The price action to negate the theory is pretty simple as well, if price action gets back on that purple trend line and above the 2 fib level the bull trap is defeated. Instead I am going to look at some long term targeting for bounces or consolidations. If we want to look at volatility based price channels the base of the keltner monthly keltner has been a good buy since 2011 and that low is more than 16% away 3850-ish. The C19 dump had price action wick to the base of the keltner and the dump in december 2018 as well. Great place for investing in uptrend. The other long term volatility based channel I am going to look at in the chart below is the monthly Gaussian channel. The C19 dump took price action into the channel and it was again a great place to invest or trade to the upside. If this is going to be as bad as mega bears suppose then we have to take a look at the quarterly/3 month chart as well. Want a absolutely fantastic place to buy? Just watch this chart for once in a trading lifetime opportunity. If this chart history is any use, first we bounce off the quarterly keltner channel then have another low a few years later when the Gaussian channel catches up. Here is a look at the quarterly Exponential moving averages. It seems pretty likely that we could hit the 48 some time soon and even a touch of the 100 isn't inconceivable. If price gets to the 200 EMA then the idea of investing gets really tricky, you don't even know what countries would survive that kind of dip, much less indivdual companies. Why the mega- bearish forecasting? Lots of reasons, but simply take a look at the Nasdaq/S&P500 like it was a forex pair. Looks really bad. What am I doing Actually very little. I have taken most of my monies and put them into stable funds. I think interest rates are going to be jacked up pretty severely and so I have some investments that should do well in a high interest rate environment (just have to be patient). I am taking some play money and shorting whatever looks technically weak in crypto. With monthly and weekly weakness I short the breakdown of daily uptrend and trendlines looking for reversals. Linked Ideas Basically more macro-bearishness ideas for you to enjoy.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Short
by This_Guhy
S&P500 Keep an eye for a repeat of mid October!The price action of the S&P500 index on the 1D time-frame since the January 04 2022 Top (left side), is so far very similar to that of September - mid October on the 12H time-frame (right side). In both cases, there is a Lower Highs trend-line involved from the top, the MA50 (blue trend-line) providing Resistance, as well as a break below the MA200 (orange trend-line). The RSI sequences are also identical. On the mid-October fractal, the price turned bullish again only after it broke above the MA50 and the Lower Highs trend-line. The key before this, was the green Higher Lows zone that held and gave the last decisive push to make the break-out. Right now, and of course if the pattern continues to replicate the October sequence, it seems that S&P500 is on the last pull-back stage to test the green Higher Lows zone. If that holds, look for an MA50/ Lower Highs test. A break above, most likely confirms the return to long-term bullish territory. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
8
SPX500USD on a H&S pattern? 🦐SP500 on the 3d chart creates a possible Head and shoulder pattern at the top of a long bullish trend. After the left shoulder, the market forms the head with a double top over the monthly trendline at the 4800 melt to the support. The price then reacted at the support area and tested twice the resistance area at the 4590 level creating the right shoulder. Furthermore, the market reacted to our beloved 0.618 Fibonacci level of the previous impulse. How can we approach this scenario? We will monitor the market during the day and if the market will break below the H&S neckline we will move to the higher timeframe. If then the price will satisfy the Planctons's academy rules we will set a nice short order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. • 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. • 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. • 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. • 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. • ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by InkyGrip
2
S&P500 Trading plan for the next 30 days.The last break-out trading plan I posted for S&P500 worked out well enough as it failed to break above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), so no longs taken, but it successfully broke below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which was the break-out signal for shorting: If you took that sell, it may be a good idea to book the respectable profits gained now, despite the fact that the 4230 original target wasn't reached, as the price is rebounding strongly today having priced yesterday's geopolitical fundamentals of Russia recognizing new independent states in Ukraine. Technically, the long target of this rebound is the 1D MA200, which is now a little over 4470 (but rising). In my opinion, after that level, buying may be resumed only if the index breaks above the 1D MA50 as well (now at 4575 but declining), which is the current Resistance and the level that rejected the price on the February 10 Lower High. On the other hand, if S&P500 breaks below the Lower Lows trend-line of the October 01 2021 Low, then I suggest shorting again seeking targets near the next available Support of 4035 (the May 13 2021 Low). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
S&P500 trapped within the 1D MA50 and MA200. Trade the break-outS&P500 has recovered more than 50% of January's strong correction as today the price hit again the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. If it doesn't break, this is on the short-term a Double Top as the same High was made there on February 02. Technically, the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) now comes in play as it is the major Resistance of this recovery attempt while the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is the short-term Support, which has already held once successfully on February 04. Notice how those Resistance and Support levels almost perfectly align with the 0.618 and 0.382 Fibonacci retracement levels. Short-term traders could trade the break-out: if it closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50 = buy target 4900 (long-term Higher Highs trend-line), while below the 1D MA200 = sell target 4230 (just above the 4220 Support). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:SPX500
by TradingShot
3
SPX is about to reverse, wave 5 of C is almost completed.Hi everyone, SPX is about to complet the C wave inside this Zig Zag ABC. Max wave 5 target (the 261.8%) fib is at 4500. It's a very clean pattern, impulse down in A, ABC in B and impulse down in C on the 100% fib. SPX is already diverging (bullish Divergence Class A on the RSI). The big question is what's next...? It can be 2 things now, a new higher high or the beginning of a WXY in what i think can be a Cycle Wave 4 retracement. Where this Wave 4 can go ? At least to 3935 in the 0.24 fib from our last wave 2 we made in March 2009. But in between 0.3 and 0.5 more common (probable). Best to you !! Thanks for your comments !
SP:SPXLong
by Crypto_Mercy
$spx long term: neutral when 5.1k tickssymmetrical and inversily symmetrical moves expected ... we are entering a phase when the easier money is beyond us on a buy & hold strategy, imo holders may want to book gains above 5k, wait for a correction and if conditions favourable, market stabilizing and not panicing - the scenario confirming then get long ago towards 5900, at 5900 more volatility expected... some kind of flat in the same fashion we seen in 2011/13... very good for intermediate swing term eventually, literally, buy low sell high... the Time dimension on chart, need to be taken with a grain of salt... Market rose TWICE as fast from 2020 lows to here, as it did from 2009 in the same ammount of days... so we may either expect this wave to be faster in pace, or simply that it may burn more time after a big impulse. even though visually I'm prefering the faster pace option, it may not be descarded the time simmeytry may eventually play out and the overall length of wave B coming to be about the same as wave A, which would be, about 9 years, from 2009 to 2018... making this one last up to around 2028/29... as I said, and for now, I'm prefering the faster pace/shorter time hypothesis, but that's only that and nothing more, an hypothesis, still as such, accounting for a terminal high around 2026... expecting a not-see-in-a-very-long-time type of bear market to ensue from the top, roughly calculated around 8/9 Note: I'm seeing many bear who assume the "mid-place" to have been the flat in 2014/15... this is indeed a possibility to keep in mind, and in case market starts hinting at a change in longer term caracther the above analysis should be discarded... that said, imo it is not likely that 2014/15 was the mid-place, as we have had a more significant, lengthy, violent and complex flat in 2018/20... assuming such volatility is not terminal, we prefer that flat as the mid-place for the overall count. Of course, if said volatility was terminal, we are in borrowed time and after 5k hits the crash will come without a doubt, but as I said before, I'm not prefering that view as of this moment... (for both "technical", "fundamental" & cyclical reasons). K SP:SPX ...
SP:SPXLong
by LotusTrading20
S&P 500 Forecast: Index Wipes Out Most of Wednesday LossesThe S&P 500 has rallied significantly during the course of trading on Thursday to wipe out the losses from the Wednesday session. We managed to close above the 50 day EMA, as it looks like markets are ready to continue to go to the upside for a longer-term move. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see plenty of interest, as we have seen so much in the way of bullish behavior over the last several months. Yes, the market has negative for a while, but that has been the most recent behavior, and at this point in time it is but a blip on the radar of the longer-term trend. That being said, the market is likely to continue to see buyers looking for value, especially as the end of the year approaches, and people will be looking to reach some type of benchmark for their clients. Because of this, we have the so-called “Santa Claus rally” that typically happens at the end of every year, and I do not see this year being any different. Because of this, I think what we have is a scenario where every dip will be bought into, and we will eventually go looking towards the 4800 level. The market is currently hanging around the 50 day EMA, so that will attract a lot of trading, but at the end of the day the most important thing to pay attention to here is the fact that the jobs number is coming out on Friday, and it will almost certainly cause a significant amount of volatility. The market selling off quite drastically on Friday will almost certainly be bought back into, which is typically the case with the Non-Farm Payroll Friday situation. This is because liquidity disappears, and people will find some type of narrative to start buying the dips. That is what Wall Street does, it finds reasons to go higher. Furthermore, even though the Federal Reserve is pretending like it is worried about inflation, the reality is that the first time Wall Street throws a serious tantrum, they will step in and save the banks. Because of this, it is not really a market so much as it is a bidding war to see who can push things higher over the longer term.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SmoothJB
3