Get started

SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-16 : Gap Potential PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will attempt to GAP at the open. The current price structure suggests the SPY/QQQ are in an upward FLAGGING formation related to a broad Excess Phase Peak pattern. I believe this upward trend will continue until price attempts to break either the upper previous Ultimate High pattern or break the lower channel of the current FLAGGING formation. The wonderful thing about these Excess Phase Peak patterns, and other techniques I'm trying to teach you, is that they provide very clear triggers/directions/opportunities for traders who understand these patterns. Today, I highlight my SPY Bias (Primary & Secondary) trending system that shows the SPY is much weaker than many people believe. Because of this, I believe we are potentially nearing an Exhaustion Peak in the SPY/QQQ - time will tell. The use of my extended Biasing systems and Custom Index charts helps me understand what is taking place behind the SPY/QQQ price action. It's like peaking behind the curtains in terms of what my Custom Indexes and other specialized data can provide. I can see what is really taking place related to price action - moving beyond the simple SPY/QQQ charts. Gold and Silver appear to be setting up an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern off a potential Ultimate Low in price. It will be interesting to see how this downward price flag plays out over the next week+. If this pattern holds, we should see the FLAG end and price should rally up into the consolidation phase. Very exciting for metals. Bitcoin, which tends to lead the SPY/QQQ, is stalling near a peak. Keep your eyes on BTCUSD over the weekend as I believe we may be able to identify how the SPY/QQQ will react on Monday by watching what BTCUSD does. Thanks for being patient and understanding my schedule over the past 30+ days. I've had multiple family member visit the hospital over the past 5-6+ weeks and my world has been filled with doctors, hospitals, follow-ups, work, and trying to keep everyone healthy and away from trouble. It appears these issues are starting to get more settled - which means I'll be able to stay more focused on work - instead of driving around everywhere and waiting for appointments. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
1
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-15 : CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern could play out as a very big downward price move if the 578-580 level is broken. CRUSH patterns are usually very large-range price bars. Yes, they can be to the upside as well (depending on recent trending). A CRUSH pattern is usually in the opposite direction of recent trends. Thus, I believe today's CRUSH pattern will be to the downside. Although I believe today could be very exciting for traders, I urge all traders move with caution in the early 30min to 60min of trading today. I believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to establish a range (early trading range), then work to break away from that range. Traders should be very cautious of getting married into a direction/position in early trading. Let the market tell you where it wants to go. Gold and Silver appear to have setup the Ultimate Low overnight. Now, we'll see if metals can move higher throughout the rest of this week and build a base for the next phase higher. BTCUSD seems to have started to roll over (top), but I urge traders to stay cautious of the current upward FLAGGING trend. Until BTCUSD breaks below $96-97k, I would still consider it to be trending upward. Going to be a busy day for me. Stay safe as I'll be on the road most of the morning. GET SOME. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYShort
by BradMatheny
10
Time to short MES (S&P500) - CRASH in comingThe assumptions are: 1) The economy is slowing down. Employment data will show it shortly and convincingly. Therefore a summer or fall crash is very likely. 2) The top for S&P 500 is already in. There is always the possibility for a melt up before the crash but I think the melt up has already occured. 3) The next drop will fall below the 2022 low and above or near the covid low. 4) This is obviously not going to be as clean as depicted but the drop is going to be fast and between 40 to 50% from the 2024 top. 5) This is a swing trade over a 6 months to 18 months timeframe. 6) Trump is going to keep messing with the tariffs until the damage to the economy takes a very long time to recover. Markets will discount this at a higher interest rate which will be very harsh for the markets. I am starting to take positions now and will add if it moves up.
CME_MINI:MES1!Short
by adventurous51
Gold Market Update: Bears will target 3150 USD🏆 Gold Market Mid-Term Update 📉 Gold Drops: Prices dip as risk appetite grows and profit-taking kicks in. 🤝 U.S.-China Deal: 90-day tariff pause boosts USD, pressures gold. 📊 Tech Watch: Key support levels eyed by traders for entry points. 🔮 EUROTLX:4K Forecast?: Analysts still see path to $4,000 amid uncertainty. ⚠️ Recession Signal: Oil-gold gap hints at slowdown—bullish for gold. 🏠 Investment Shift: Gold now 2nd-best long-term U.S. investment (after real estate). 🌍 BRICS Buying: Emerging nations hoard gold to ditch dollar. 🛡️ $3,200 Holds: Gold maintains key support despite volatility. 📈 JP Morgan Bullish: EUROTLX:4K gold possible even with growth. 💰 Live Price: Gold at $3,253.40 (+0.52%) today. 📊 Technical Outlook Update 🏆 Bull Market Overview ▪️pullback in progress still ▪️3300 USD cleared by the BEARS ▪️market gapped down at open ▪️3300 is heavy resistance for now ▪️Compression on lower timeframes ▪️Flag on Flag Bearish pattern ▪️short-term expecting more losses ⭐️Recommended strategy ▪️Short Sell Rips/Rallies ▪️TP Bears 3150 USD
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by ProjectSyndicate
17
May 14th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +452 Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: 👍 Been super chillax, having some great trading days 😄 Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System 9:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 10:37 AM SMH/Chip Stock Sell Signal X10 1:00 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! 2:34 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3! 3:01 PM VXAlgo YM X1 Sell Signal 3:30 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3! Next day plan--> Under 5875 = Bearish with X7 sell signal, Over 5900 = Clearly bullish breakout Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by WallSt007
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
US10 YR Yield Weekly Chart Analysis: NFAUpdate: May 15, 2025 -As per my last update(April 5, 2025) about the gap between March 24th candle and March 31st candle that any candle body close above that gap will invert that gap from resistance to support and Upside target will be Jan 13, 2025 candle High - We had a candle body close above that gap and now its acting like support. -Now i am expecting the bullish trend to continue and long term upside target is Jan 13, 2025 candle High and Short term upside target is April 7, 2025 candle high
TVC:US10YLong
by CryptBo88
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for May 15, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍 📊 Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Today The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the April PPI data at 8:30 AM ET. This report will provide insights into wholesale inflation trends, following the recent Consumer Price Index data that showed inflation easing to a four-year low. 🛍️ Walmart ( NYSE:WMT ) Earnings Report Walmart is set to release its earnings today, offering a glimpse into consumer spending patterns amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Investors will be watching closely for any indications of how inflation and trade policies are impacting retail performance. 👟 Foot Locker Acquired by JD Sports ( NASDAQ:JD ) JD Sports has officially acquired Foot Locker ( NYSE:FL ) for $1.6 billion ($24 per share). The deal aims to consolidate market share in the sportswear and athletic retail sector, with JD expanding its U.S. footprint. Foot Locker shares surged 67% premarket following the news. 💻 Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) Faces AI Export Rule Implementation The U.S. government's AI Diffusion Rule comes into effect today, potentially restricting Nvidia's chip sales to certain foreign markets. This regulatory change could influence Nvidia's stock performance and has broader implications for the tech sector. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊 📅 Thursday, May 15: 8:30 AM ET: Producer Price Index (PPI) for April 10:00 AM ET: Manufacturing and Trade Inventories and Sales for March ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYShort
by TrendTao
OEX /SPX Bullish wave 5 pattern crossroads The chart posted is the sp 100 I am posting it as we are now at the crossroad for bull or bear count .We have rallied to .786 as I will show and have a wave a x 1.27 = c at the .786 High But if we break above 5922 in the Cash SP 500 There is NOTHING to stop it from reaching a target of 3005 in the OEX where wave A up or wave 1 x 1.618 = wave C Top or wave 3 in the SP 500 WAVE A or WAVE 1 up 5481 - 4835 = 646 x 1.618 =1045 plus wave B low or wave 2 5102low= 5102plus 1045 =6147.22 The exact high . This is the reason I took the loss and moved LONG .Best of trades WAVETIMER
SP:OEX
by wavetimer
The Walt Disney Stock Future Goes 'Shining Bright as Never'The Walt Disney Company’s stock (DIS) has demonstrated robust performance following its Q2 2025 earnings release a week ago, with both fundamental and technical indicators reflecting positive momentum. Here’s a detailed analysis: Fundamental Perspective Disney’s Q2 2025 results exceeded expectations, driven by strong execution across its entertainment, streaming, and experiences segments. Key financial highlights include: Revenue Growth. Revenues rose 7% year-over-year (YoY) to $23.6 billion, surpassing estimates of $23.14 billion. Profitability Surge. Adjusted EPS jumped 20% YoY to $1.45, beating forecasts of $1.20. Net income swung to $3.3 billion from a $20 million loss in Q2 2024. Streaming Strength. Disney+ added 1.4 million subscribers (reaching 126 million globally), defying expectations of a decline. Combined Disney+ and Hulu streaming operations generated $336 million in profit, a sevenfold increase from $47 million YoY. Guidance Upgrade. Disney raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted EPS forecast to $5.75 (up 16% YoY), citing confidence in double-digit operating income growth for entertainment and sports, and 6%-8% growth for experiences. Growth Drivers: Entertainment. Segment operating income rose $0.5 billion YoY to $1.3 billion, fueled by streaming profitability and box office success (e.g., Moana 2). Experiences. Theme parks and consumer products saw higher attendance, guest spending, and cruise demand, though international parks faced headwinds in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Strategic Initiatives. The upcoming Abu Dhabi theme park and ESPN’s direct-to-consumer launch are expected to drive long-term growth. Technical Perspective Disney’s stock firstly reacted positive to the earnings beat, reflecting renewed investor confidence: Price Action. Shares surged 10-12% post-earnings, hitting an intraday high of $103.31. Over the past month, DIS gained 31%, including a 20% rally in five days. Valuation. The stock trades at 18.4x forward earnings and 2.1x sales, a premium to industry averages but below its historical norms. Analyst Sentiment. The average price target stands at $126.50 (14% upside), with a Street-high target of $148 (33% upside). Technical Indicators: Momentum. The breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $100) signals bullish sentiment, supported by high trading volume. Volatility. Beta of 1.01 aligns with market volatility, while short interest remains low at 1.24% of float. Risks and Considerations Macroeconomic Uncertainty. Disney acknowledged potential impacts from tariffs and global economic conditions. Valuation Premium. While growth prospects justify some premium, prolonged macroeconomic stress could pressure multiples. Investors challenge Disney’s Q2 2025 results underscore its ability to execute on streaming monetization, theme park innovation, and content-driven growth. Fundamentally, raised guidance and streaming profitability signal a turnaround, while technically, the stock’s breakout suggests locally bullish momentum. Following historical patterns we are Bearishly tuned at this time, with targets to fill the gap at $92.17 per share (left after Earnings report), and drilling all the way below. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team
NYSE:DISShort
by PandorraResearch
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-14 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ may attempt to stay somewhat elevated. The Carryover pattern is essentially a pattern saying, "expect more of the same type of trending today". I would suggest the SPY/QQQ are somewhat extended and may pause a bit today. I shared a chart I created back on March 23, 2025 that I found very interesting - showing a big rally in late-April/early-May. If that chart continues to be accurate - it suggests the markets may attempt a reversion move to the downside over the next 20-30+ days. Time will tell if my predictions play out accurately or not. Gold is moving into new BEARISH trending on the GOLD Cycle Patterns. After an extended consolidation phase in metals, this shift in the trend models was going to happen at some point. Now, we need to see if Gold/Silver can hold above recent support or not. Even though I believe Gold/Silver are poised for another big rally, the disruptions related to the global economy and tariffs seems to have taken some of wind out of the sails of the metals rally (for now). Bitcoin continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Keep an eye on what BTCUSD does over the next 7-15+ days as I believe it will lead the US markets in trending (still). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
SPY Broke The Sine-Wave Center - Not GoodWe see the 3 tiny arrows—proof that price was rejected by those who knew. The Trend Barrier, once solid support, cracked without resistance. Price dropped right back into the Medianline set. The small pullback? Totally expected—just like the Medianline rules suggest. Then came the brutal drop, textbook-style, straight to the Centerline. The springboard move back up to the U-MLH and the Trend Barrier? No surprise—if you understand the Medianline Framework. Because this is just P2. Also—watch the white line. That’s what I call the Sine Wave. Why does it matter? Because the center point (where the red pullback arrow is) often gets breached in a fake move... right before price reverses hard. From P2: down, down, down... lower than P1. AND THAT SHOULD SCARE THE HELL OUT OF YOU! …if I’m right 😈 But if it fails? Then we’re looking at a monstrous V-shape recovery—one that could send the indexes skyrocketing. So there you have it. What’s your direction? Let me know—and tell me why! §8-)
AMEX:SPYShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
8
Upper Band Holds Post-Breakout - Classic Trend Signal in PlayDéjà vu? Not quite - but today’s session feels a lot like yesterday’s. We’ve got a fresh mechanical bear trigger from a late-day Tag ‘n Turn setup. But much like the previous session, price action is telling us a different story. Let’s walk through what I’m looking for. --- SPX Market Briefing Yesterday’s session started with a bearish bias. But by the end of the day, the market voided the setup via the hedge trigger - and since I wasn’t positioned bearish, it was a clear signal to flip bullish. Same playbook again today. I entered yesterday bullish and didn’t babysit the charts. Today, I’m starting with a bearish mechanical trigger, but futures are holding up. There’s also a post-breakout continuation in play that’s clinging to the upper Bollinger Band - a strong sign of bullish trending momentum. Bollinger himself suggested this as one of the most reliable signs of strength. So what’s the move? Bearish trigger? Yes. Bear entry? Not yet. I’ll defer bearish entries unless price breaks below the 5880 area, with a v-shaped entry. If price stays above 5910, I’ll resume bullish activity as needed. This is shaping up to be another go/no-go decision day - no need to guess, no need to jump early. Let price make the choice. I’ll respond when it does. GEX Analysis Update 5900 is looking like the key GEX level again. --- Expert Insights: Mistake: Taking every mechanical setup without confirming price action Fix: Use price structure (like Bollinger Band holds) to confirm trend integrity Mistake: Jumping in without clear invalidation levels Fix: Predefine bull/bear flip zones - today: 5880 and 5910 Mistake: Over-monitoring slow sessions Fix: No need to stare at charts - mechanical setups do the heavy lifting --- Rumour Has It… Bollinger Band Declared Emotional Support Tool Sources say traders have begun using the upper Bollinger Band like a weighted blanket. “As long as we’re above it,” one trader whispered from beneath a desk, “I feel safe.” Psychologists confirm it's become a market-wide security blanket, replacing support/resistance zones in all therapy sessions. This is entirely made-up satire. Probably! Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity? --- Fun Fact John Bollinger designed his bands in the early 1980s - not just to spot reversals, but also to identify sustained breakouts. When price hugs the upper band after a breakout, it’s often signalling continuation, not exhaustion. It’s a feature of trend momentum, not a warning of collapse. Today’s chart is textbook. The system gives us the setup. But the context? That’s where discretion adds juice to the edge.
SP:SPX
by MrPhilNewton
S&P 500 Index Most Bullish Signal In 15 YearsThis is why it is very clear, certain, that the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is set to grow in the coming months. Last week produced the highest volume session, on the bullish side, since April/May 2010, that's 15 years. Back then, when this signal showed up, this index went to grow for years non-stop. The SPX also produced the strongest weekly session in several decades, maybe the strongest week ever, and a bounce happened (support found) exactly at the 0.618 retracement Fib. This is all we need to know. When the bulls enter the market and do so with force, it is because the market is set to grow. The correction produced decline of 21%. This is pretty standard. The fact that the correction happened really fast, it means that it will also have a fast end. The low is in. The correction is over. The S&P 500 Index is set to grow. You can be certain. If you have any doubts, just ask the chart. Namaste.
SP:SPXLong
by MasterAnanda
9