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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update for 3-3-25 : Absolutely PerfectThis quick little update is for everyone who follows my research. Today was absolutely PERFECT in terms of my expectations and how the SPY moved so far today. A nearly perfect downward price trend targeting the 588 level. Now, we'll see if we get a base and a squeeze higher before the end of trading today. I'm so impressed with my ability to pinpoint these type of opportunities for everyone. Remember, trading is about taking the opportunity to position your assets for gains. Get some. And please share your success stories if you have them. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
11
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-3-25 : Up-Down-UP Pattern CounterToday's pattern, and Up-Down-Up in counter-trend mode, suggests the markets will attempt to move downward after the open and attempt to retrace some (or most) of Friday's gain. I do believe this downward price move is essential for the markets to build a moderate base before attempting to move higher into the march 11-16 topping pattern my research suggests will prompt another breakdown in price. Ultimately, these moves up and down over the past 30+ days are establishing a sideways (mega-phone type) price structure that I warned was likely to happen more than 90+ days ago (back in December 2024). What we are seeing right now is a rolling of price while uncertainty continues to drive capital away from technology, semis and innovation - moving into safety and security. This will continue until July or August 2025, then capital will suddenly shift back into risk-ON in my opinion. By the time everyone thinks the markets are breaking downward (crashing), that is when I think the markets will make a sudden shift toward growth and innovation as the US resumes a growth phase in late 2025 (carrying into 2026). Currently, we are in a minor little "pause/rally" phase after the last bout of selling. This rally will likely end sometime after March 11 - leading to a breakdown in price starting between 3-14 and 3-17. This is a trader's market. Gold/Silver appear to have found a footing and seem to be bouncing. We'll see if Gold/Silver move above critical resistance and continue to rally higher. BTCUSD has rebounded back to support/resistance, but has also moved into a new DUAL Excess Phase Peak pattern that suggests increased price volatility for Bitcoin. I still believe we are moving into a very side-range consolidation pattern for Bitcoin. I suggest staying fairly cautious today and setting up some trades for the pause/rally I expect to carry through this week for the SPY/QQQ. No need to get too greedy on a Monday. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
6
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 3-4-25: Top Resistance PatternToday's pattern is a Top Resistance pattern. Usually, these types of patterns reflect a market where price moves higher - attempting to find a peak/resistance level, then rolls downward (confirming that resistance level). Because of yesterday's strong selling after Trump's Tariff comments, I suggest the peak in today's price activity may be set in very early trading. We're going to have to watch the charts to see how price reacts to more news and the continued restructuring of global economies. One thing is obvious: the markets are resettling based on Trump's expectations and tariff comments. I checked out TLT and a few other symbols last night, and it appears the Predator Fed comments I made over the past 12+ months are still holding up very well. Inadvertently, the US has moved into a position of being the 900 lb gorilla of the global markets. Higher Fed rates for longer are putting pressure on global currencies and many global economies. If Trump is able to secure more US manufacturing and a more secure US economy (reducing deficit spending), I can see the next 3+ years being very disruptive for the global markets. Ultimately, though, building a strong US economy and going through this disruption will lead to explosive growth in 2026 and beyond. You may not see it now, but if we are able to organize our government/finances better going forward - start to think about how powerful that could be for the next 15 to 25+ years. Next, thank you for all the great comments. Love it. Gold and Silver are starting to make that recovery rally move after the last 7+ days of selling. This could be a very powerful move to the upside for metals and miners. Bitcoin is still struggling and will likely stay trapped in a sideways range. that range could be $10k to GETTEX:13K in size - so stay cautious of wild volatility in BTCUSD if you are trading it. Again,I want to urge all of you to consider your trading as "taking calculated risks" - not gambling. I talked to a friend just yesterday, and he told me how I changed his life by helping him to stop the gambling-style of trading he was doing. Once you realize that trading is not about those HUGE WINS (sure they are nice) - but it is about staying agile, getting in and out with decent profits, and growing your account efficiently. So, I urge you to step back and consider every new trade you take as "how much am I really risking if things go wrong". When you do that, you'll find you can still take the trade, but you'll teach yourself to manage your capital more efficiently. Ok. Go Get Some! #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. ​ 🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy. ​ investopedia.com 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 4: 🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️: 8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.​ 17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.​ 4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Time to Prepare | $SPY Options Bull & Bear Week 1 March 2025AMEX:SPY Last week's AMEX:SPY $595 Put 3/10 ran for 66% from $480 up to $1,420. The last two weeks, the market has suffered a controlled pullback. So far it has been cautious selling rather than outright panic. While fear has entered the market, it has yet to reach capitulation, where there would be significantly more potential downside. The key level to watch long-term is the 200SMA on the daily chart, currently at $568.45. This level, which hasn't been tested in 16 months, could signal a Stage 4 selloff, a more aggressive and potentially prolonged downward trend. Here are this week's AMEX:SPY Options: (15-30 minute candle closes for confirmation and stop-loss) 📜 $580 PUT 3/17 Entry: Breakdown and failed retest of $584.50 Target 🎯 : $580, $574, $571 📜 $590 CALL 3/17 Confirmed breakout over $584.50 Target 🎯 : $590, $591.50, $594
AMEX:SPY
by PennyBois
VIX going higher: Sector Rotation UnderwayTVC:VIX is the tool I use for market timing. It tells us a lot. When it spikes to a Resistance (often 50% of the last major high) that tends to be a market bottom. But when you see what it is doing the last few weeks: Closing sustainably higher each bar... you know the market is pricing in more volatility. VIX is known as the "fear index" and you can extrapolate that out to see that fear is increasing. The VIX is also the most forward looking indicator I have found for the stock market. All signs point to more broad market downside. Another thing going on in context is a clear Sector Rotation. I noticed this last week but today's look at the Sector ETFs make it more clear. Not everything is down; AMEX:XLP and AMEX:XLU are up even as AMEX:SPY makes new lows. What this tells me is that investors are fleeing into "quality" stocks with low volatility and that pay dividends. I'm currently sitting in cash, waiting for opportunities, and hedged some of my long term tax advantage accounts in AMEX:SH
CBOE:VIXLong
by norok
S&P500 Index Goes 'Draconian', ahead of Roller Coaster ExplosionThe S&P 500's "roller coaster" behavior stems from its sensitivity to various economic, geopolitical, and market-specific factors that influence investor sentiment and corporate performance. Economic Factors: Changes in interest rates, inflation, and Federal Reserve policies significantly impact the index. For example, rising interest rates can reduce corporate earnings and valuations, leading to market sell-offs. Conversely, expectations of rate cuts can boost optimism and drive rallies. Investor Sentiment and Volatility: The S&P 500 is closely tied to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often called the "fear gauge." The VIX rises during market downturns as investors seek portfolio protection, amplifying price swings. This inverse correlation highlights how fear or optimism can drive sharp movements in the index. Global Events: Geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or pandemics can disrupt markets by creating uncertainty about future economic performance. Such events often lead to sudden spikes or drops in the S&P 500 as investors react to perceived risks. Valuation Cycles: Overvaluation or bubbles in specific sectors can lead to corrections. For instance, high price-to-earnings ratios combined with slower economic growth can result in prolonged periods of stagnation or volatility. These factors collectively create the "roller coaster" effect begun in the S&P 500. // Life is like a roller coaster, as you don't know what's going to be thrown at you next, so all you can do is give us your best shot. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CBOE:SPX
by PandorraResearch
Your Investing Alarm Just Went Off! Are You In?Hey, future wealth builders! Today, I’m kicking off a new series where I’ll be your personal market alarm system! Think of me as the investing wake-up call you didn’t know you needed. Buzzing in your inbox to make sure you never snooze on your next investment. We’ll regularly review stock indices so that you can invest consistently, with confidence and purpose. Every month. Little by little, building your wealth. Goals: Encourage consistent and regular investing. Identify the strongest-performing indices at any given time. Ensure that investment decisions are thoughtful and informed. Avoid emotional, random, and blindly made purchases. Why does this approach work? In January , I tested whether smart index selection can outperform the market over 20 years. I analyzed three U.S. indices: S&P 500, Russell 2000, Nasdaq 100. On the first trading day of each quarter, I bought the technically strongest index, the one showing the best price movement and trend. I made a total of 81 trades. The results: ✅ I outperformed the S&P 500 (+233%) and Russell 2000 (+128%), achieving a +344% return. ❌ But I couldn’t beat the Nasdaq 100, which returned +570%. Investing would be easy if we knew today which index to buy for the next 10 or 20 years but since time travel isn’t an option (yet), sticking to just one index could cost you tens of thousands over time. The solution? Make the best choice at each moment. Which indices do I track? After careful consideration and discussions with ETF expert Märten Kress, I have selected four key indices from different regions: 📌 S&P 500 – U.S. large-cap stocks 📌 Nasdaq 100 – U.S. tech and growth stocks 📌 EuroStoxx 600 – European large-cap stocks 📌 China Large-Cap ETF – China’s largest and most liquid companies How does it work? On the 1st and 15th of every month (or the next trading day), I analyze which index has the strongest technical “setup”. Why these days? Payday reminders! Invest in yourself first, build your portfolio , and then think about whether those extra expenses are really worth it. You’ll find out which index is hot right now so you can invest more wisely. Why am I doing this? Actually, my main goal with this series is to be that friend who calls and says: “Come on, let’s hit the gym!” You may not feel like going, but once you do, you always feel better afterward. This is the same, except the workout is investing. Investing must be consistent and strategic. Blind purchases can cost you thousands. Smart diversification helps maximize returns and reduce risks. You don’t have to analyze everything yourself. I’ll provide insights to help you stay on track and save you time. Whether you invest every month, twice a month, or once a quarter, is up to you. I’ll be here, my posts will keep coming, and my technical opinion will always be available. The key is consistency and investing without emotions! WHO WINS THIS MONTH? Let’s get serious. Which index is the strongest this month? Which one has momentum, and which one should we wait on? ----------- 🚀 Want to know which index is leading this month? I break it down every month (or twice a month) on my Substack, so you always stay ahead with the strongest setups. ⚡ No guessing. No blind moves. No sticking to just one index. Get the data, make smarter decisions, and grow your portfolio. 🔗 Find the link in my BIO (under the Website icon) , or if you're on mobile, just scroll down to my signature! See you there, Vaido
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by VaidoVeek
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Weekly plan: ESH2025NYSE:ES FUTURES 3/3/2025 6012>> 6056>>> 6083-93 Weekly pivot: 5970 , Now Trading @ 5957 5919>> 5878>>> 5828 CONTEXT: NYSE:ES closed Friday's session with massive spike to the upside. Now NYSE:ES is back inside the previous balance zone that extends to 214 points range with 6056 for half back, however we need to be cautious since daily chart still is One Time Framing Down (OTFD) which would end if NYSE:ES is able to recapture or trade above 5971, at that point we will need to redraw daily balance zone. @everyone
CME_MINI:ES1!
by dhjesus
Direxion High Beta Bull S&P 500 3X | HIBL | Long at $30.86Contrarian view, despite tariffs. I don't think this rodeo is over - but I could always be wrong. Even if individual consumption drops (which I think it has for some time now), rising prices will continue to mask it. Many, but not all, companies will profit and until there is a "bigger" catalyst... bullish. AMEX:HIBL is a personal buy at $30.86 (also noting the possibility of it going into the FWB:20S in the near-term) Targets: $40.00 $45.00 $50.00
AMEX:HIBLLong
by WorthlessViews
Selling Premium Going into Costco EarningsGiven Costco’s historical tendency for minimal post-earnings stock movement, along with inflated IV in the options market, selling premium via a bear call spread is a high-probability, risk- managed strategy to profit from an expected IV crush and minimal price movement following earnings. Key Points Supporting the Thesis: 1. Historical Price Movement: Over the past 4 years, Costco’s stock has experienced an average post-earnings price movement of only 1.24%. The majority of moves have been within a modest range of -1% to +2%. This indicates that despite earnings announcements, the stock tends to remain within a predictable price range, minimizing the potential for significant directional price swings. 2. Implied Volatility and Overpricing of Options: Currently, the options market is pricing in a 4.6% move for Costco’s stock post-earnings. Given Costco’s historical price movement patterns, this is an overestimation of potential volatility. IV tends to collapse after earnings announcements. 3. Costco’s High Valuation: Costco is currently trading at a P/E ratio of 61, which is significantly higher than historical levels. This suggests that the stock is already expensive relative to its earnings potential, making it less likely to experience a massive upward movement after earnings. The high valuation also means that even strong earnings may not drive significant upside, further increasing the likelihood of a muted post-earnings reaction. 4. Earnings Catalysts and Market Behavior: Costco’s earnings reports historically have had limited impact on the stock’s price due to the company’s stable revenue and earnings growth. Investors have already priced in much of the growth potential, leading to minimal surprise reactions to earnings releases. The combination of low historical price movement and high IV makes this a prime environment for selling premium, as the likelihood of large moves is low, while option prices remain high.
NASDAQ:COST
by KevinBurrows
SPY Trading Opportunity! BUY! My dear friends, Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below: The price is coiling around a solid key level - 594.00 Bias - Bullish Technical Indicators: Pivot Points Low anticipates a potential price reversal. Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence. Goal - 602.54 Safe Stop Loss - 590.04 About Used Indicators: The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYLong
by AnabelSignals
1
End of hibernation for the bears?AMEX:SPY is at a pivotal point and could potentially be at the top of the bullish cycle that began in October 2022. If this prediction proves accurate, I think we could see a maximum low of $510 for this year. There are a couple of caveats, including one that will be a clear indicator of whether or not this wave count is accurate, which I will explain later. On the 1000R chart ($10), this uptrend was confirmed by Supertrend and volume activity. Volume drastically increased at the start of Wave (3) in March 2023 and did not taper off until the start of Wave (4) in July 2024. This was the strongest impulse in the trend, which is common for Wave 3. You can also see the ADX line of the DMI indicator (white line) was at its highest level during that period. Assuming Wave (5) is already complete, we can observe that the volume in Wave (3) was considerably less than Wave (5). Other observations supporting this wave count: - Wave (4) retracing into the territory of Wave 4 of (3) - Alternation in corrective patterns between Wave (2) and Wave (4); flat in (2) and straight down in (4) - Wave (5) extending to nearly 1.618 of (1) While the points I’ve made so far suggest that the market may be on the verge of a crash, the image gets more complicated when you take a closer look on the 250R chart ($2.50). I’ll start with what I’m counting as Wave 4 of (5). The price ended at ATH in Wave 3 and then corrected in an unmistakable five wave descending wedge pattern. This can only be a fourth wave of a larger impulse, so we can conclude with a fair amount of confidence that the wave that follows will be the last. Here is where things get interesting. The price moved from $575 on January 13th to a slightly higher ATH of $609.24 on January 24th before being rejected again. This uptrend unfolded in a typical bullish pattern and left a notable gap at $584, which is the only gap still left unfilled. The trend change is confirmed on the moving averages. Notice the serious drop in volume that followed as well. Despite the shift in volume, there are two issues I have with this wave count that are preventing me from calling this a confirmed correction: 1. Wave 5 of (5) was awfully short and only extended roughly $2 above the end of Wave 3 of (5). This does not break any rules, but it is unusual. 2. What I have labelled as Wave B of Wave (1) or (A) of the correction made a new ATH on Friday February 14th, which should invalidate this wave count since the end of Wave 5 of (5) should be the peak. The second point is why some may think that we are about to resume the larger bull trend, however there is a possibility that they are mistaken based off the PA on the actual index SP:SPX and futures CME_MINI:ES1! . On the SP:SPX chart, we can see that the index did not break the ATH at $6128.18 set on January 25th, and instead rejected at $6,127.24. CME_MINI:ES1! also failed to notch a new ATH on Friday and I have observed the price action create a nearly perfect bearish butterfly pattern. Also notice how the volume is significantly lower than in the uptrend that began on January 31st. So the question remains: are we at a tipping point or will the bulls regain control? Right now it’s unclear, but I will keep my bearish sentiment until SP:SPX makes a new ATH, which will invalidate this theory. Since only the ETF that tracks it only made a slightly higher high on low volume, I’m skeptical of the PA on AMEX:SPY at the moment. This is why I entered puts on Friday. If the trade plays out, I expect the price to quickly move to fill the gap at $584, which is still conveniently located at what I cam considering the 1.236 extension of Wave A, which is a common target extension in flat corrections. I will keep my puts open until this idea is invalidated, as the Wave C drop will likely be caused by a news event that could come at any time. Let me know if you guys are seeing the same thing or something different. Good luck to all!
AMEX:SPYShort
by ap769
3