AAPL: 2025 Strategic Outlook: 75%+ BUY/HOLD🔸Time to update the AAPL outlook, this is 2D price chart, we are
currently entering overpriced zone and limited upside in AAPL
going forward.
🔸AAPL price action is contained within rising bullish price channel
established since 2021. Havin said that we've entered premium / overprice
zone and I'm expecting limited upside going forward over the next few
month. Risk/reward is favoring a pullback/correction before a healthy
uptrend can resume in 2025.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback/correction to start
in Q1 2025, 20/25% pullback is normal and therefore we may hit
170/180 USD in the correction stage of the bull market in AAPL. Bulls
should wait for better prices / reload zone near 170/180. TP BULLS
is 260/280 USD. this is obviously a setup for patient traders, do not
expect overnight gains in this market. good luck!
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Risk Appetite at a Crossroads: SPY vs. TLT Nears Key ResistanceIntroduction:
A classic market indicator for gauging risk appetite is the ratio between stocks AMEX:SPY and long-term bonds NASDAQ:TLT . The premise is simple yet powerful: when stocks outperform bonds, the market is in a "risk-on" environment, favoring equities. Conversely, when bonds outperform stocks, it signals a "risk-off" environment, favoring safety.
For years, this ratio has trended upward within an ascending price channel, reflecting the dominance of equities over bonds in delivering superior returns. However, the ratio is now approaching the upper boundary of this channel, a critical juncture for assessing the next phase of market dynamics.
Analysis:
Risk-On vs. Risk-Off: The SPY-to-TLT ratio provides a clear view of market sentiment. A rising ratio reflects confidence in equities, while a declining ratio indicates a shift toward safety in bonds.
Long-Term Uptrend: The ratio has been in a well-defined uptrend, marked by higher highs and higher lows. This trend underscores the market's preference for stocks over bonds in recent years.
Current Situation: As the ratio nears the upper boundary of its price channel, the potential for a slowdown or reversal increases. While the long-term uptrend remains intact, a pullback could signal a temporary period where bonds (TLT) outperform stocks (SPY).
Interest Rate Outlook: With interest rates potentially declining next year, bonds could see increased demand. However, as long as the ratio remains within its channel and continues to rise, the "risk-on" environment remains dominant.
Conclusion:
The SPY-to-TLT ratio is nearing a pivotal level that could influence market sentiment in the coming months. While the "risk-on" trend remains intact for now, a shift in dynamics could occur if the ratio fails to break through its resistance. Traders and investors should monitor this ratio closely to navigate potential shifts between equity and bond performance. What’s your outlook on this key indicator? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SPY-to-TLT ratio, the ascending price channel, and key resistance and support levels)
Tags: #RiskAppetite #Stocks #Bonds #SPY #TLT #TechnicalAnalysis #MarketTrends
2024-11-28 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
sp500 e-mini futures - Same as for dax. Retest of yesterday’s open price and bears could only correct sideways and biggest dip was 5 points. Big bull trend line was support and we are on our way up. I expect 6040 and probably higher. If not tomorrow then next month. We have a perfect channel upwards which leads 6100+. I don’t think bears can even get below 6015 again. If they do, 6000 has to hold or we could have seen the highs.
comment: Not much difference to my dax outlook. Relentless buying today, ath in sight and a decent channel upwards. Bears need something below 6000 to make bulls cover. Big bullish bias for me. Possible that we stay around 6000-6050 for November, to then do the Santa rally somewhere in December. Closing 2024 above 6000 would be amazing for bulls.
current market cycle: bull trend
key levels: 6000 - 6050 (above 6050 comes 6100 in play)
bull case : Higher lows and higher highs. Clear invalidation price given and big resistance above. I doubt bears can get this below 6010/6015 tomorrow. Only longs for me. If we stall around 6040, you should have a tight stop and from a r:r perspective, new longs above 6040 are bad.
Invalidation is below 6010.
bear case: Bears need something below 6000. That’s it. How likely is that? Look at the daily chart. Is there any bearishness in there?
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Bullish.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-16: So the top definitely qualifies as a blow-off top but the question if we continue further up, is still valid. It is possible that we are already inside the correction and if we continue below 5860, I highly doubt bulls can get above 6000 again. Given the current market structure, I won’t turn bear because the risk of another retest of the highs or even higher ones are just too big.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Could have bought pretty much anywhere.
U.S. Aggregate T-Bond Market. Fears & Greed Awakening. Series IIIt's gone 3 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin almost cleared $100,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
However macro data still stoke fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too slow with cutting interest rates. Non-farm payroll added just 12K new places last month. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.5%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
Fresh ISM release is scheduled on Dec 02, 2024 (47.5 points forecasted), and labor market data is on the radars on Friday, Dec 06 (+183K non-farm payroll forecasted).
The main technical graph is for U.S. Core Aggregate T-Bond Market ETF (AGG), in total return format, and it indicates on Reversed Head-and-Shoulders technical structure in development, as it's been discussed in earlier published ideas.
Moreover, huge 200-Week SMA breakthrough is on the investments radars also.
What does it mean for Bond Market?.. Potentially "Good", to jump to all-time high.
... and for Stock Market?.. Potentially "Also Good", until it reach the fever pitch.
Holiday Markets and All Markets Spot CheckLimited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving
We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat.
US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of the FED still cutting 25 bps before end of year. This will be an important message from the FED to the markets on how the FED plans to adjust monetary policy in 2025 (pause, hold, cut, hike).
DXY and USD related crosses showing signs of nice movement (weaker dollar). Let's see if that is a stronger reversal pattern with follow through as many USD pairs are at strong support/resistance levels to show some reactions.
I'm not aggressively positioning on anything currently. If the melt-up continues, it's pretty easy and steady gains. If we have any flinch or pullback before end of year, I'll have my hedges in profit to help offset drawdowns. The best path for me is management both ways and inexpensive protection to the downside.
Thanks for watching!!!
5 SPIRALS DUE 11/29 to 12/2 The chart posted is the updatedThe chart posted is my SPIRAL turns focus point it is 11/29 to 12/2 I feel rather strong that the markets are set for the NEXT TIMING TURN I AM RATHER BEARISH As you can see I am labeling the wave count and have NOT changed anything . Best of trades WAVETIMER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone.
Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life.
Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always.
Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work.
Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days.
The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength.
Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up.
Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bull & Bear Options for Week of 11/25 (184-210% Last Week)We are back after another banger week for SPY options. Last week's $590 Call 12/2 confirmed twice off $586 returning intraday gains of 48-67% on Tuesday & Wednesday and reaching highs on Monday 11/25 of 184-210%
Here are this week's options:
Range: $583-$598 ($590 mid-point)
$595 PUT 12/9
Entry: 15-min candle close BELOW $598.67
Targets: $595.50, White trendline
Stop: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67
$605 CALL 12/9
Entry: 15-min candle close ABOVE $598.67, 15-min retest and close ABOVE $598.67
Targets: $601, $605
Stop-loss: 15-min candle close UNDER $598.67
$SPY Trade Alert from 11/25 (Update) | 31% ROI TodayOur AMEX:SPY range trading strategy is in full-effect.
We talked on livestream about trading the upside to $600 (from $598) and that trade paid out handsomely.
I think we could expect $605 tomorrow if price action continues to the upside.
I will continue to update as these trades play out, week after week!
SPY Double Top Triple Top?Possible Double or Triple Top on AMEX:SPY ?
The SPY has been hitting the same resistance level of 600.80 for the past two days. First, on November 24, 2024, and again on November 25, 2024, before pulling back.
This repeated testing of the same level raises the question: are we forming a double or triple top? Will the SPY fail to break through this level, or will it finally push past it?
Only time will tell, but we should be aware of this potential technical pattern.
Double Top
Two consecutive peaks: Two highs occur near the same price level, with a moderate decline between them.
Valley in between: A noticeable low forms between the two peaks, which serves as a support level.
Neckline: A line connecting the valley lows forms the neckline.
Breakdown: The price breaks below the neckline, confirming the Double Top pattern.
Volume: Decreasing volume on the second peak and increasing volume on the breakdown.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Bull & Bear $SPY Weekly OptionsAMEX:SPY
We expect the next two weeks through Thanksgiving to be quiet before we continue on this rally into the end of year through all-time highs. This week we are focusing on the range from $583 up to $598. We have weaker levels at $586 and $591.70.
Here are our weekly options contracts for both sides of the trade. For confirmation, we use 15-30 minute candle closes over/under our entry level.
$590 CALL 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation OVER $586 or $583.56
Targets: ($586), $588, $591
$584 PUT 12/2
Entry: Retest Confirmation UNDER $583.56
Targets: $580.90, Long-term trendline
S&P500 (SPY) Hits Target #2 Today!Traders, though we've still got a ways to go to our final target of 670-700 on the SPY, it is worth celebrating our direct hit of 600 today. I remember a year ago drawing out 563 as a first target for our blow-off top and I was laughed at. Bears were in their mood and hungry. They wanted more blood. But a combo of our Elliot Wave and a daily inverse head and shoulders showed us exactly where we would hit.
Then I spotted this nice cup and handle on the weekly. If you remember, it was almost invalidated with that China carry trade flash crash. But I stood my ground and stated that we would need to see another weekly open and close below our neckline before the bet was off. That did not happen and we are well on our way to that 670-700 final target. However, before we get there, I do believe our 600 level on the charts will provide some psychological resistance. Admittedly, this was more of a guess than anything when I had drawn it up and placed it on my chart several weeks ago. But now, we are seeing overbought conditions on both the daily and weekly charts. Are we a bit over-heated? I think we may be and should be prepared to see a bit of a drop, or at least a week or so of sideways price action, before we break 600.
Unlike my first target at which I sold and buy the carry trade dip for massive profit, I don't know that I will be selling here. 600, as I stated already, was more of a guess than anything. But I am pretty decent at making these guesses. Experience and lots of psychology and chart study has taught me. Before I get ahead of myself though, let's watch and see what the market decides to do next week.
✌️ Stew
SPY 11/22 PlanUntil we are able to break above the trendline, We will continue to chop
Look at where they closed yesterday, right at it, and rejected.
We have to be patient, the move will come...
One thing to notice though was the retest of the trendline, as of now the retest was able to close above the trendline, but we need to see volume coming in for this move to happen.
If we go below 592 again, i believe we retest 589 fast.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Gold Spot intraday setup. The Pushmi - Pullyu animalRemember Dr. Dolittle? He was a vet who could talk to animals. One of the rarest was the “pushmi-pullyu,” a llama with two heads (one head was where the ass ought to be).
The pushmi-pullyu was a gentle creature that did not like to be stared at. And yet the other animals in Africa convinced him to go with the good Dr., and be put on display in Europe, because Dr. Dolittle was a kind soul who needed money to look after all the animals in his “care”.
It's gone a bit since Gold explosion last week, due to Biden's gaffe to authorize the yellow/blues regime use US-made missiles inside Russia's legal area, while the rods of Russia's retribution hanged like the sword of Damocles over all of Europe, on the basis of reciprocity.
Last week Gold spot added +153 US Dollars just in 5 Days. That was the best in history ever 1-week return, since January, 1980. Additionally, in percentage points Gold spot added +5.97 percent in a week. It was the 3rd best 1-week return over past decade.
Gold spot in Euro OANDA:XAUEUR at the same time continues its gain 11th straight month in a row.
The main intraday graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates that Gold has retraced a bit to its key $2670 level (that was discussed in earlier published ideas), and ready to take Adv. again, since Trump-a-rally rolled out into the all-the-world fart.
SPY Ascending Triangle pattern AND Rising WedgeAMEX:SPY Printing a nice ascending triangle pattern along a rising wedge. Could go either way as marked out but considering last weeks action the time for the rally of santa is here as we head into the day of the great Turkey. Some fat wall street bankers have to cover and generate returns they keep pushing people out of positions just to buy them up. Very likely we set a new ATH on SPY this week. We just as easily could reverse as rising wedges tend to be bearish signals.