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$NQ outlook headed into OCT. 21 WEEKMarket structure still shows us that it is bullish based on Technicals. No catalyst yet for a big bearish move/correction/pullback. Friday ended as an inside bar /1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. Rejection off the order blocks from April time frame and the SEPT bounce off the imbalance created in AUG. There's no real catalyst 'yet' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ Similar to my NASDAQ:QQQ post a week ago, price is still respecting the upward trendline which is now annotated with the green triangle. Watch for price for the rest of OCT attempt to take out ATH (Liquidity) at 20983.75 and potentially reverse/stall at 21,000. Why that number? Psychological level along with where many algos most likely set their orders along with those who went short at ATH set their stops ABOVE entry. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE but an OPINION. #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SADnation
$SPY Outlook for OCT 21, 2024AMEX:SPY headed into this week is an inside bar / 1 / harami. Means an explosive move is coming. Got a 2-1-2 going into Monday. The overall market structure is still bullish with higher lows and higher highs. There's no real catalyst ' yet ' for a big bearish move. I'd watch how Sunday night's global opens and see what transpires during the London session of NYSE:ES SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ There still a GAP downside that was not completely filled last week. #SPY is in this rising wedge pattern and been respecting the TL (Green/Red). The pivot for SPY will be 583.99 - 584.55. If the bulls hold above that, you will see 585.39 get taken and then potentially 586.12. Failure by the bears to stop the move up and 587/587.35/588 will be on the path. If the bears take control and break the pivot zone, then you will see 583.67 / 583.2 / 582.6 / 582.33 and 581.82 / 581.5 / 580.9 Market Structure starts to change with a break of 582.16. A true MSS comes at 565 break. Keep in mind, there is a divergence between NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY This is NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE! #SPY #MSFT NASDAQ:AAPL #AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN #AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ #QQQ #ICT NYSE:ES #ES SP:SPX #SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY #NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA #TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD #NVDA #AMD
AMEX:SPY
by SADnation
SPY Loosing Momentum ! SPYLOVERS DONT PANIC ! Its OKAfter several weeks of analysis, the price reached its all-time highs twice, creating a new extreme. Att his moment is what i call in a no man's land zone. But what do I see in the overall structure? If you can clearly identify the yellow upward channel, I want you to split it in half, and we will analyze the two parts. In the first half, we have an active price movement, with clear fluctuations between support and resistance. The high volatility causes the price to move in waves, perfectly respecting support and resistance. But if you can manage to identify the second half, up until the end of the channel, you'll see that the price shows signs of exhaustion. Exhaustion, how? When the price stops having that volatility everyone is looking for, and begins to slow down and starts moving like a worm along the edge of the channel’s support, showing small candles and, above all, losing momentum. (In the chart, I want you to identify the price exhaustion by marking it with a small symbol of a worm crawling along the channel's support.) This type of behavior happens frequently when the price is losing momentum. In this type of scenario, I am more than certain that we will soon see a move where the price might break out of the yellow channel. Most likely, we will see the price make its natural retracement. After achieving two all-time highs, I believe it's time for the price to take a break, either to consolidate or make a quick decision. Nevertheless, I am expecting the price to make its natural pullback in the coming week. We’ll see if it happens. Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis.
AMEX:SPY
by RocketMike111
$TSLA - BEAR FLAG $174 PT, Medium Term PT $138 at Double BottomBear Flag is setting up nicely like the previously bear flag. Length of Pole - Measured downside move to a price objective of $174. There is also a major gap that hasn't been filled. The stock will eventually fill the gap with a support at a double bottom of $138. Overall, Tesla is more bearish and than bullish. Short on further downside. Fundamentally, it is trading at an egregiously overvalued Forward PEG of 6.53 and a forward PE of 81 while growth is expected to be stagnant YOY with no concrete evidence of renewed growth for the next year. Even if you assume the company gets back to 50% growth next year, its current valuation on forward PEG and PE would still be overvalued and would need time to grow into its valuation.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by TheTradingStar
1
10/17 Give us a healthy pull back. Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync. The NASDAQ:QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures. Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week. BTC Technical Analysis: W: On the weekly chart, BINANCE:BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around $70k. A close above $68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action. D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!" 4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of $62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening. 1h: Bearish. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom? Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%. Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-18 : Tmp-Bottom PatternHappy Friday, Today's pattern is a Tmp-Bottom pattern for the SPY Cycle Patterns. This pattern usually acts as price attempting to find immediate support in early trading, then moving into a moderate melt-up rally. After yesterday's big opening gap (higher) on the SPY, I suspect the SPY & QQQ will attempt to rally back to those highs and possibly attempt to break those highs today. In other words, I believe yesterday's opening price high was a reaction price level where price ran into immediate resistance. After watching price roll downward and now attempt to melt upward in overnight trading, I interpret this move as "failing to continue to establish new lower lows". Thus, price then shifts into a mode of "must attempt to make higher highs". If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY/QQQ melt upward off the Tmp-Bottom pattern and possibly attempt to move up 1.25-1.50%+ today. Gold and Silver are playing out very nicely - still moving in a solid rally phase. Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways. The length of time Bitcoin has consolidated could present a very big breakout or breakdown pattern over the next 2 to 5+ days. So, be aware that any move away from the #3 & #4 consolidation phase of the Excess Phase Peak pattern could resolve into a very big price move for Bitcoin. Currently, I suggest the downward price move has a slight advantage - simply because of the failed new highs (price rejection). But, that could change in an instant with a confirmed higher high/higher close. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
3
SPY/ES1! Flagging In Bullish Carryover Trend - Squeeze PosssibleCheck out the APEX FLAGGING formation in the SPY and ES chart; they are aligning perfectly. If my analysis is correct, the SPY and ES should move into an upward price squeeze after the Flag Apex volatility period (roughly 20+ minutes) is complete. That means the SPY and ES should move into a more defined upward price trend as we close out the day today - possibly carrying into tomorrow. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-17 : CarryOver In CarryOver ModeGood morning, Great to see the ES/NQ rallying higher this morning - in perfect alignment with my SPY Cycle Patterns & predictions. Gold & Silver are also moving slightly higher - but remember My Gold patterns suggest Gold & Silver will consolidate a bit in early trading today. BTCUSD is a really interesting chart, in my opinion. The multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing into a potentially very large downward price move. Pay attention to all of the content in this video today because we are moving into the end of this week - which means we need to prepare for the volatility that starts next week. As I keep suggesting to everyone, trading is about attempting to time the best opportunities for success. Knowing when something may happen that creates an opportunity, setting your risk levels, and going for it. I wish I could tell you, "Trading is like picking red or black". It's not. Trader's have to develop almost a 6th sense to be able to see and visualize what is most likely to happen in the future. My tools help me see into the future a bit, but a lot of my analysis comes from within my head. Anyway, the best way for you to learn these skills is from someone who can mentor you and show you what they are seeing on the chart. Teaching you the skills to improve your own abilities to make better decisions. That is what I'm doing. Over time, you will learn to use these techniques to make better decisions and become a better trader (at least that is my objective). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
2024-10-16 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bears hoped for a second leg down and build decent selling pressure but bulls bought the dip. Nothing unexpected and we likely continue sideways at the highs until bears give up again or more bulls get exhausted and want to secure profits. Technically I expect another leg down but we could retest the highs first. Don’t overstay your welcome in positions. comment: 5850 was the low yesterday and bears could not break below. Weak bears gave up and we closed around the 50% pullback from Tuesday’s selling. Where does this leave us? Nowhere. 5890ish is the worst place to trade now because it’s the exact mid point of this trading range. Wait for strong momentum or until we reach one of the extremes again. These bullish earnings should have taken the market higher by now if you ask me. So there is a decent chance we are forming a credible top. 5850 - 5920 is the current range and until we see the MAG7 earnings, it probably won’t break out of it. current market cycle: bull trend (bull wedge) key levels: 5850 - 5920 bull case: Bulls bought the dip, no surprise there. They want 5900+ next and they will probably continue to buy 5850. No more magic to this. Since it was a bullish close, bulls are very slightly favored higher tomorrow but I would not buy 5886 right now. Invalidation is below 5850. bear case: Bears tried and failed. They have to make the market more neutral and trade sideways until more bulls want out of their position. BTFD is still strong. Anything above 5850 is bullish and bears have to scalp. Earnings will probably set the next impulse to either side. Invalidation is above 5920. short term: Neutral inside given range. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Long the double bottom with yesterday’s low. Very obvious trade that worked greatly.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: 10-16 UpdateLearn to watch for signs of major market contagion by watching key sectors. In my opinion, the biggest sectors: Like Transportation, Financials, Gold, and Crude Oil, will lead any major market collapse - often by 7-10+ days. This videos highlights what I believe most traders need to watch in terms of understanding when/where opportunities are for long trades while attempting to gauge risks related to any type of broad market collapse event. Spend some time looking over this custom Crash Index and let me know if you see any correlations related to when the SPY/QQQ move more than 7-8% downward in any sudden price moves... (XLF+IYT+GDX+XOP)/4 Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-16: BreakAway PatternToday's video highlights what I believe may be a shift in market trend - which can happen. My SPY Cycle Pattern highlight expected price activity/range based on a number of factors: Fibonacci price theory, Gann analysis, Tesla Price Amplitude theory, and more. Yet, the one thing my SPY Cycle Pattern do not take into consideration is TIME. Price shifting slightly forward or backward: where price exhibits an activity/range one day before or one day after the Pattern Date has happened before. I've seen big CRUSH patterns happen +/- one day. I've seen topping/bottoming patterns happen +/- one day. Possibly, we just experienced the sideways contraction I was expecting for Wednesday of this week happen on Tuesday of this week. This type of "time shift" if not out of the question in terms of how price reacts to external news/data. What this means is we may be in for a moderate upside melt-up type of rally in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3+ trading days. Gold & Silver are moving clearly into the Phase #4 of an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. If my analysis is correct, Gold and Silver will rally to a new "Ultimate High" throughout this process. Bitcoin may have already reached the Ultimate High after yesterday's breakout rally phase. We need to watch the $68k level to see if price fails to rally above that level. The next two weeks of trading should be very interesting for all of us - moving into an election and watching the global markets attempt to adjust for opportunities/risks. Remember, ultimately, all of your decision-making should focus on three things: _ Preserving Capital _ Identifying Opportunities _ Containing Risks No matter what happens over the next three+ weeks, there will be time for more trading after the elections and in 2025 and beyond. Trading is a long game - where the #1 priority is to preserve capital while trying to find the best opportunities for profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-15 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a Gap Breakaway type of price trend. I believe this means price will attempt to Gap higher at the open and attempt to move into a moderate rally phase throughout the day. Remember, we are just starting to move into Q3 earnings data, which will last well into mid-November. On top of that, we have the US elections and other data (external) that may drive market trends. Near the beginning of this video, I show you some of my ADL (Adaptive Dynamic Learning AI) predictive modeling system outcomes for various symbols on Daily charts. It is important to understand price is the ultimate indicator and we don't want to fight price. We just let price do what it wants to do and try to time the best trading opportunities on the charts. Given what I believe it currently taking place, I suspect the SPY/QQQ will melt upward over the next 5-7+ trading days - attempting to reach a peak price level near October 24-25. Metals appear to be in a consolidation channel (downward) and are struggling to break away from that channel. Move metals do break away from that channel - we are going to see an explosive move to the upside. I suspect that could happen later today or tomorrow. Bitcoin is playing the Excess Phase Peak Pattern perfectly - moving into consolidation and now setting up the #4 (A or B) setup for traders. The next move is going to be explosive - either setting an ultimate high, or breaking downward and returning to recent lows. Should be some exciting trends for all of us over the next 10+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
11