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Hey SPY lovers, look at all that green! Do you believe me now?We are undoubtedly in a scenario where the price is showing a lot of strength. As we can see, the price previously attempted to break all-time highs but encountered an institutional liquidity block, trying twice and creating a double top before making a pullback for days ! This second attempt to break the all-time high will be very important because, after the pullback, we were able to forecast the limit where the price would bounce back. Just one candle with a lot of volume and buying pressure was enough to realize that the price would reverse at $544. If you've been following this analysis for weeks or months, you'll notice that everything is playing out according to our price action and institutional analysis. Now, we just need to wait for that ATH, and I think this time will be different, especially considering that we're in election months, and the current president's political party wants the economy to look strong before the elections. So, we can expect a bull run from now until November. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and if you've benefited from it and made profits, congratulations, I'm happy for you. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
#202438 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500: Neutral. Big triangle on the daily chart and we are 40 points below the previous big resistance. Resistance is just that until clearly broken. Sideways movement between 5400 - 5670 is more likely than a new ath above 5721. If bulls break above 5670, a new ath becomes more likely and bellow 5550 I think the bears are favored again, at least for 5400. Quote from last week: comment: Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts. comment: Favored the bears last week and wanted to load on shorts on this pullback but bears were practically gone, so no shorts for me. Lower highs and higher lows. Triangle on the daily chart until broken. Not much difference to the other indexes. Above 5670 bulls are favored for 5700+ and maybe a new ath and bears would need a strong reversal below 5650 for bulls to cover their longs again. Similar to 2024-09-03 where bears printed a huge bearish engulfing bar, that is that they would need here as well. current market cycle: trading range (triangle) key levels: 5400 - 5700 bull case: Traps on both sides and 5630 is a very good place to trap bulls again, like they did 2 weeks ago. Not much more to say other what I wrote in my comment. Bulls are slightly favored here until bears come around again but buying above 5600 right now is a bad trade, no matter how you put it. If bulls get follow through on Monday, I join them but no earlier. Invalidation is below 5500. bear case: Bears need to keep this a lower high or probably face a new ath test. Since bulls printed a 5 bar micro channel last week, bears have no good arguments until they print a bear bar on the daily chart. Market is undecided and erratic, don’t overstay your welcome to either side. If we see 5700+ next week, I will think deeply about when and where to short. Last time we hit 5700, market spent 5 days around that price before turning down hard for 10%. Invalidation is above 5670. outlook last week: short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle. → Last Sunday we traded 5419 and now we are at 5629. I warned against being bearish at the lows and wait for a pullback. Pullback was way stronger than expected so meh outlook. short term : Neutral between 5400 - 5670. I slightly favor the bears when they print a good bear bar on Monday because of the triangle. Above 5670 I scalp long and see how high we can get. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: None. chart update: Removed the ABC correction and added the bull wedge.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
Market Indecision 2024! (Diamond Reversal)It has been an interesting few years in the markets. One of the hottest bull runs coming off the Pandemic lows to a 7 month bear market in 2022, followed by another epic bull run! We are now at a major decision point for markets. Up or Down! Recession fears abound while small caps are ready to pop waiting on rate cuts. The S&P as lopsided as ever with Mag 7 carrying the entire index for 2 years. Where are we going next? At every "potential" market top, the convergence between an ascending channel meets a potential descending channel forming a diamond shaped pattern. This pattern is the indecision point of any given market, but don't get bearish yet. A diamond reversal pattern can break in either direction, reversal or continuation . I have documented both the historical moves and the future potential paths. Remember that markets are not pre-ordained to do anything. They have to make decisions, and while you may have already decided your personal view, you can let the market confirm your biases one step at a time. React! Don't predict! 1) Halfway mark from 10/23 run to $6000 target -4/19 bottom starts 2nd leg -Bull Flag Consolidation 2) Diamond Reversal (Minor) -Rate cuts? Yes/No -And Why? Economy vs Inflation **Upside Breakout on 9/13 3) Rate cuts hinted for Sep FOMC -Halted 38% run from 10/23 -Halted 62% run from 10/22 4) Required drop to form minor/major diamond of indecision. -Blamed on Japanese Carry Trade* -Note the drop is perfect 78.6% retrace from 4/19 Run *Japanese Carry Trade margin collapse was instead caused by formation. **This was also opportunistic early rotation into treasuries. 5) Bullish rejection of minor diamond -Resilient CPI and Jobs provide cover for soft landing narrative. -Note the rejection confirms on diamond neutral line @ 38.2% 4/19 fib and healthy 20WMA bounce 6) Rate Cuts!!! -Rate cut odds are near equal between .25 vs .50 -Note a rejection confirms Double Top -Breakout confirms $6000 7) Blow off top!!! -Note the identical pattern to 2022 top *The Ancient Trendline is based on a back-dated creation of the S&P 500 by Standard & Poors as the index was founded in 1957 8) Bullish Ascending Channel starts in Jun-Oct 2022 -A short break here confirms new bearish descending channel and major diamond reversal. -This will be your bearish hint towards bearish 2025 but don't short yet!! -No break confirms ascending channel but EOY will give one more opportunity for a break. 9) End of Year typical Tax Loss Harvesting, Santa Rally, etc. -Unlikely to see a bullish breakout here -If Continuation occurs, it will be Jan into Feb 10) Last chance for Bears! -Need bearish breakdown to confirm both diamond and descending channel 11) Descension confirmation marks several opportunities on path down for bullish break outs -Initial Support @ $4800 (20% drop from top) -Secondary Support @ $4450 (25% drop from top) -Massive Support @ $4144 (30% drop from top) Best of luck in 2025 whatever you decide! Game on!
CBOE:SPX
by jasonchristy
4
SPY Under Pressure! SELL! My dear followers, I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following: The market is trading on 561.96 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation. Target - 556.18 About Used Indicators: A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy. ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnabelSignals
2
SPY: Short-Term Selloff Anticipated After Fed Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip on SPY: Now you need to know that as the Federal Reserve approaches its rate cut decision this week, speculation is high that we may see a larger-than-expected cut of 50 basis points rather than the anticipated 25. This could trigger a short-term selloff in equities, including the SPY (S&P 500 ETF), despite the initial market reaction. The market often exhibits a “buy the rumor, sell the news” behavior, and this situation could be no different. With expectations set for a 25 basis point cut, a surprise 50 basis point reduction might lead to concerns about the underlying economic conditions. This could prompt a selloff in major indices, including SPY, as traders and investors react to the Fed’s unexpected move. In the immediate aftermath of the Fed decision, SPY might see a brief uptick as market participants adjust their positions and optimism prevails. However, this short-term rally could be quickly overshadowed by a broader correction. As the market digests the implications of the Fed's actions and potential economic concerns come to light, SPY is likely to experience a pullback. For those looking to capitalize on this potential downturn, the $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could be a prudent choice. These puts offer a strategic way to hedge against or profit from the anticipated short-term decline in SPY. Given the expected correction following the Fed's rate cut, this option could provide significant value as SPY faces downward pressure. While SPY may experience an initial rise in response to the Fed’s decision, the broader market sentiment is likely to shift towards risk aversion, leading to a correction in the weeks following the announcement. By October 18, the broader market and SPY could be reflecting these adjustments, making the $550 puts a timely investment. In summary, while SPY might see some early gains next week, a correction is expected to follow as the market reacts to the Fed’s decision. The $550 strike price puts expiring on October 18, 2024, could offer a valuable opportunity for those anticipating this short-term volatility.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
9/13 Will BTC Hold the Line? Eyes on Rate Cut and Reversal!Overview: Phone vibrates... Voice: "Bogdanoff, he panic sold." Bogdanoff: "Temporary bottom, reversal." Voice: "He’s not biting." Bogdanoff: "Pump it and paint a bull flag." The VANTAGE:SP500 has posted five consecutive days of gains, stopping just 0.71% short of its all-time high. Meanwhile, NASDAQ:QQQ still needs to rise another 5.84% to match its previous peak. However, both indices have seen declining volume for the past three days, signaling that market participants are bracing for Wednesday’s rate cut. Whether it will impact crypto positively or negatively is the big question. Given the meteoric rise this week, Monday and Tuesday are expected to be flat or slightly negative as traders take profits ahead of anticipated volatility. ETF flows are showing signs of divergence. On Friday, Fidelity retail traders loaded up on COINBASE:BTCUSD while Blackrock sat on the sidelines once again. Meanwhile, Ethereum continues to be ignored, with Grayscale Trust even selling. Are altcoins really that depressing? W: Bitcoin broke through the $58.4K weekly level but still has a long way to go before signaling a trend reversal. BTC needs to cross and hold above the $63K level to confirm a weekly uptrend. This week will likely close with a solid green candle, although a Sunday evening sell-off could bring the price back to the moving average around $58K. D: As we mentioned yesterday, "This is either a chance to enter at the beginning of a new bull wave or the highest BTC will be in a long time." BTC crossed the Bollinger Bands’ moving average and the weekly level, moving into a new range between $58.4K and $61.47K. 4h: The price is now at an overbought RSI level of 70.89, signaling short-term bearishness. 1h: RSI is even more overbought at 77.06. Alts relative to BTC: As noted earlier, the BTC vs. alts divergence is currently unfolding. Of the major coins, only BINANCE:TAOUSDT has outpaced BTC’s 4% rise, with a 9% gain. Still, there's no sign of TAO being listed on Coinbase. Bull case: If Jerome Powell manages a smooth landing, we could see gains from big tech stocks like Nvidia being recycled into small-cap tech and crypto. Following the first couple of rate cuts, if inflation remains under control and employment stable, the Fed could continue its policies, boosting global liquidity and fueling the final phase of the 2024 crypto bull run. Bear case: ..phone vibrates. Voice: "Bogdanoff, he bought." Fear and Greed Index: 38.35, still in Fear territory. The last time BTC was at $60.3K, the Fear and Greed Index was between 43 and 55. Could this be another divergence? Prediction: Expect a short-term correction to $58.4K, followed by rate cut-induced volatility next week.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY 09/12Well on track for the big blow-off top idea. Expecting to see 565 in the next few days, then potentially higher to new ATH Disclaimer: This idea is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as an offer to sell or a recommendation to purchase any asset. Any decisions made based on the information presented in this idea are the sole responsibility of the individual. All investment decisions should be made independently, taking into account your financial situation and objectives.
AMEX:SPYLong
by variable_not_defined
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern). Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not. Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point. Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks. Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election. Plan, prepare, and Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Approaching Key Resistance at $564Looking at the SPY daily chart, the price has recovered well from its recent pullback and is now approaching a significant resistance level around $564. Key Levels: Resistance at $564: The green dashed line highlights this key resistance zone. SPY has tested this level multiple times, and we’re nearing another test. Each time the price approached this zone, it faced rejection, making it a critical level to break for continued upside. Support at $552.49: This is the immediate support zone, and it’s holding strong. Any pullback towards this level would be a natural correction but as long as we stay above it, the bulls remain in control. What I Expect: Potential Breakout: If SPY manages to break and hold above $564, we could see a significant rally, possibly testing higher resistance levels around $570. However, failure to break this resistance might lead to another pullback, with $552 acting as the first major support. Sideways Action: There’s also the chance that SPY could consolidate in the $552 - $564 range before making a decisive move in either direction. This would create a buildup of momentum before the next big breakout or breakdown. Final Thoughts: We’re at a critical juncture. If the bulls can push through $564, we might see a continuation of the larger uptrend. However, resistance here has been strong, so I’ll be watching closely for either a breakout or a rejection at this level. Stay cautious and watch for clear confirmation before making your move.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Deno_Trading
$SPY Ranges Playing Out Perfectly - Expectations for 9/13/24For tomorrow - Above $559.60 -> $562 could be hit on AMEX:SPY There is significant resistance at $559.60, so it could be a reversal point to watch for a bearish trade back down through the channel. We have trend support that has become resistance at $562, which will be a mountain to climb and I don't expect that to happen tomorrow. Today's Recap - We did great trading the bullish breakout on $556C for 100%+ (overall). We caught the wick down on entry one, then the breakout entry on entry two. Map out your pivot points, trade smart, and execute within your plan! We will be going LIVE at 2:30 on our private community stream to discuss the week in review, map out some trades, and set ourselves up for clear profitability into next week!
AMEX:SPYLong
by PennyBois
Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff. Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after. I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything. Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
AMEX:XLRE
by ChrisPulver
1
2024-09-12 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Strong follow through by the bulls after another nasty bear trap. On lower time frames we got some sell spikes but mostly due to bulls taking profits and not strong bears shorting. Bullish price action can’t be denied and on the daily charts we are moving closer to the shallow bear trend lines from the ath and we are mostly inside triangles. Daily charts tell the story and it’s bullish so we can’t expect a strong bear reversal tomorrow. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Triangle is still my preferred pattern for now. Tomorrow we could see 5640 but anything above is uncertain. At that level I would get out of most longs. Currently I don’t have any interest in selling, since we have seen many bear traps. Today bears could not close a 1h bar below the 20ema, so look how market behaves if we get there again tomorrow. Buy on strength and don’t get fooled into shorts on strong selling. It was strong but disappeared in an instance and bulls melted higher again. current market cycle: t rading range and also minor bull trend inside since we are making higher lows and higher highs key levels: 5400 -5650 bull case: Bulls bought 5550 until bears gave up. The selling around the open was strong enough to trap many bears and that’s why the move up was so violent again. Bulls are in full control until we make lower lows again. Targets above are obvious. Next one is open of the month + high of the month around 5670 and above that is the ath 5721. Last time we got above 5600, market did go sideways for 10 days and this time we could see a breakout above or below somewhat faster. Invalidation is below 5540. bear case: Bears tried to keep it below 5580 but since they could not close below the 1h for 3h, they gave up and market moved up in a perfect small pullback bull trend which held above the 1m 20ema for an hour and 35 points. So what’s next for bears? Do or die moment around 5650 to keep it a lower high. If they fail, we most likely print a new ath. Rough guess is that bears won’t try to close the week with a red bar but just keep it below 5670. Invalidation is above 5670. short term: Max bullishness as long as the 1h 20ema is not broken and until we hit 5650/5660. I’d close longs there on any weakness and probably won’t do anything until next week. medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024. current swing trade: Only intraday scalps currently. Still think next 500 points are made to the downside and not up. trade of the day: Buying the bear trap on the US open was as perfect of a trade as it gets.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD. This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos. I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593. In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October. But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day. I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos. This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
COMEX:GC1!Long
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows. Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility). Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move. Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election. Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY breaks key resistance with momentumAfter the cpi report SPY went from selling off dramatically in the morning to turning around rallying with strong momentum and volume. CPI report brought a lot of volatility to the market today SPY started selling then turned around quickly to break resistance We note the increasing volume as the rally continues The final period did end with rather undecided candle giving a sense of pause to direction it may go tomorrow The strong volume on final period does indicate price exhaustion, we may experience pull back tomorrow. Multiple down beaten stocks from previous sell off trend are now experiencing a massive rally breaking their trend and reversing to the upside.
AMEX:SPY
by ratchet-mint