Bulls and Bears zone for 09-11-2024S&P 500 has posted back to back gains this week since the pullback last week.
Patience is the virtue.
Level to watch : 5501 --- 5499
Spy!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-11 : Inside BreakawayToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open within yesterday's price range and attempt to "break away" from yesterday's range.
I still believe we are moving into a secondary Excess Phase Peak pattern (flagging higher), which will prompt the SPY to attempt to rally to near 560. Because of this, I'm expecting a continued upward push toward the 558-560 area before it stalls and tops out.
I suggest traders prepare for a lot of morning volatility today in early trading, followed by a strong push into higher price trending (upward) as today's BreakAway plays out.
Gold and Silver are making a decent move higher - as I suggested. Remember, Gold and Silver will peak out within the next 4~5 days and will likely reach a sudden peak/top after Sept 20th, resulting in a quick, deep-V type collapse.
I expect metals to move into that Deep-V base/bottom before October 11~14 (roughly).
The US markets and Metals will suddenly flash-crash as we move closer to the US elections. This move will likely be news or event-related. But I feel it is inevitable at this point.
Bitcoin will likely follow gold/silver and move into a moderate flash crash mode nearly simultaneously as metals.
Get ready. This flash crash trend should be a great opportunity for skilled traders.
Get some.
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SPY Daily Chart Analysis: Trendline Support Holding with LevelsLooking at this SPY daily chart, I’m seeing some promising signs for a potential bullish reversal. Here’s what I’m focusing on:
Key Levels:
Support at $542: The price recently bounced off a significant support zone around $542, which also aligns with a long-term upward trendline that has held multiple times in the past (marked by the orange circles). This suggests strong buyer interest in this area.
Resistance at $564.78: If the bullish momentum continues, the first significant target is around the $564.78 resistance. This has been a major resistance area previously and would be the next hurdle for the bulls.
What I Expect:
Potential Bounce: Given the bounce off the trendline and support zone, I expect SPY to test the $548 - $550 region next. A successful break above this could lead to a move towards $564.78.
Trendline Strength: The upward trendline has held multiple times, as shown by the previous touches, indicating that buyers continue to defend this level. If we stay above this line, the bullish case strengthens.
Final Thoughts:
The chart is indicating that SPY could be gearing up for a bounce, especially if it holds above the $542 support. I’ll be closely watching how the price reacts around $548 and whether it can break higher toward $564.78. If the trendline continues to hold, we may see a continuation of the broader uptrend.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Sept 10 : Consolidation CarryoverToday will likely be similar to yesterday - but slightly more consolidated overall.
I belive the markets are struggling into a dual Excess Phase Peak Flag (Step #2) and the SPY/QQQ show this very clearly.
This dual Excess Phase Peak pattern will result in either a breakdown in price (starting after Sept 20th or so) or a continued rally phase breaching the Unique & Ultimate Fibonacci High price levels.
Ultimately, I believe the breakdown potential is higher at this point than the continued rally phase. That is why I'm asking traders to prepare for a top near Sept 20-25 and to move assets into CASH as we melt upward over the next 5+ days.
If my research is correct, the second Excess Phase Peak pattern will prompt a breakdown in price - resulting in an attempt to find support above recent (60-90 day) lows. And that will reflect a -9-14% drawdown in price.
If I'm wrong and we don't see this breakdown in price, then we'll see price struggle to move higher and eventually break the recent ATH levels.
Watch this video to learn how the Excess Phase Peak patterns setup.
Get some.
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SPX500 H4 | Overlap resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,520.41 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,580.00 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,388.72 which is a swing-low support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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$SPY Weekly Options | Bull or Bear? We got both covered!AMEX:SPY
We are seeing a clear technical pullback, but nothing trend breaking. 21EMA on the weekly is our guide. We are watching $550 as our pivot this week for our options contracts. For these contracts, we will be using the 15 or 30 minute chart and candle closes for confirmation.
$555 Call 9/27
Entry: 30 minute close OVER $550
Targets: $555, $559.58
Stop-loss: 15 or 30 minute close UNDER $550
$545 PUT 9/27
Entry: Break above $550, 30 minute close UNDER
Targets: $545, $540
Stop-loss: 15 or 30 minute close OVER $550
SPY regains but still in bearish zoneSPY bounces back after Friday sell off, still inside downward trend
comparing against 1h and 2h timeframe we see that ema remains below sma for both
This also holds true for RSI between 1 and 2h. RSI remains remains below sma
stock remains inside the downward trend after bounce back
SPY still shows signs of bearishness and more selling to come. Not looking like we are out of the woods yet.
One More Dump Coming We’ve got an interesting setup here! Price just closed in a 4-hour supply zone, but I’m not jumping in yet. No solid buy signal has popped up, which makes me think we could see another dip. There’s a gap lurking below that still needs filling, and I have a feeling we might head down to take care of that first.
What I'm Watching:
This week, my eyes are on the 555.6 level. If we stays below this with some good momentum, it could be game on for shorts. Im looking for a BoS tomorrow after open. If we get that, I’ll be ready to pounce on a short setup.
Key Levels:
4-Hour Supply Zone: Price showing some hesitation here—could be a signal. Wait for a reversal.
GapsBelow: 2 Gaps like to get filled, and I’m thinking this might be next.
My Game Plan:
Keep an eye on price action below 555.6.
Wait for confirmation before diving into a short.
Make sure to manage risk. No trade is worth blowing up an account!
2024-09-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
Indexes - Green across the board. On the daily charts it’s mostly a small to normal bullish inside bar, so nothing to get excited about yet for the bulls. Tomorrow will be very important for the bears. If they fail to test the lows again or stop the pullback, many bears could give up and let the bulls test the highs again. In my weekly outlook I wrote that the 4h ema is currently the most important one and almost all markets respected it and closed below. Will look for early weakness and want to short for retest of the Friday lows.
sp500 e-mini futures
comment: Triangle is valid so far. Big red box is the open bear gap on the daily chart. 5500 would be a very good place for the bears to step in and make it resistance. I expect 5462 to be tested tomorrow and hopefully 5400 also. Odds favor the bears as long as we stay below 5540.
current market cycle: trading range - if we drop below 5390, we are in a bear trend inside the big trading range.
key levels: 5400 -5540
bull case: Bulls had a decent pullback today but it was still an inside bar. They need follow through and prices above 5540 to make more bears cover their shorts. Bulls had 3 good legs up today but bears were equally strong. Most of the move upwards was during the Globex session. Until bulls break strongly above 5500, they don’t have many arguments on their side.
Invalidation is below 5460.
bear case: Bears sold the rips today and kept the market mostly in balance around the open price 5462. They need to step in to keep the market below the current bear trend line and the 4h ema. Since we have formed a triangle, market is in balance between 5450-5500. The higher time frames support the bears for a second leg down. For tomorrow I expect the triangle to continue some more until we get a breakout and odds favor the bears. I think 5500 is a decent place to short with SL 5540 or 5560.
Invalidation is above 5540.
short term: Bearish as long as we stay below 5540. I want at least a retest of the lows 5400 but I hope for a bigger second leg down to 5000/5100.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: Not yet. Will watch tomorrow’s price action and short on weakness.
trade of the day: Longing 5450 was good all day and shorting above 5480. Looks way easier on the 15m tf than it was. Almost always is.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for Sept 9 : GapUp-Higher Counter TrendPay special attention to this video and prepare for what I believe will be a type of Flash-Crash event starting near Sept 20-24.
Now is the time to start moving more capital into CASH. Prepare for this potential downside price move of -9-14% by protecting your capital.
Yes. There will be bigger opportunities near the bottom of this moderate Flash-crash event.
No, you don't want to watch your assets fall 10-15% over the next 60 days.
The solution is to move into a more protective allocation mode (70~80% CASH) over the next 5 to 7 days and then ride it out.
Remember, I'm here to try to help you become a better trader. I tell you want I see and I live or die by my output.
I'm not always 100% accurate. But I do believe the markets are going to move into a type fo Flash-Crash event over the next 45+ days and I believe the best way to prepare for this event is to load up on dry powder, trade smaller amounts for now, then look for opportunities near the bottom.
Get some.
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#202437 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Full bear mode. Market closes exactly at the 50% pullback price 5420 and we could see some sideways movement before more downside. Any pullback should stay below 5535. 0 Doubt in my mind that we see 5000 in 2024.
Quote from last week:
comment : Are we that much smarter than last Sunday after past week’s price action? I don’t think so. Still a lower high. Bulls closed the month extremely bullish but we are at previous resistance. Can’t be anything but neutral. Clear invalidation prices though. Above 5670 it’s bullish for ath retest 5721 or higher high. Below 5550 bears can generate momentum and convince bulls this was just a climactic retest of the highs and we go down again. Bulls still do have better arguments than the bears as long as they stay above the daily ema at 5565.
comment : Strong bearish momentum is what we got with the bearish engulfing candle on Monday and market never looked back. 50% pullback is almost exactly at Friday’s close and if we get a pullback before 5200, it will be here. What are the chances? No idea, so every time that is so, it’s 50/50. Absolutely favoring the bears to continue down to 5200, with or without pullback. So if we get one, I will load on swing shorts.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5000-5700
bull case: Bulls best chance for a pullback is right here at 5420 which is the 50% retracement and close to the weekly 20ema. I do not think after a 10%+ rally, that they will fight the bears to keep it above 5400. Market is erratic to say the least. Best bulls can hope for on Monday is sideways movement and stopping the bears from printing lower lows.
Invalidation is below 5390.
bear case: Bears stepped aside completely on the move up but came back big time on Monday. Why did they short it on Monday? That is never important and ever a question you should try to answer because you simply can not and will not know. Ever. That is the inherent beauty of the markets if they are big enough. Too many participants to determine such useless thoughts. The height of the bars tells you that there is very strong selling going on because people want out.
Invalidation is above 5540.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral again. No interest in bigger buying above 5600. Will scalp long if bulls make it clear that they want a new ath but mostly looking for signs of bear strength over the next week. Bulls closed above 5660 so it’s a buy signal going into next week but my outlook has not changed. I wait for bears to come around and will only scalp longs.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5661 and now we are at 5419. I let you decide the value of the given outlook last Sunday.
short term: Full bear mode and yet we could get a 100+ point pullback. So shorting 5419 is not advisable as of now. Wait for bears to come around again. If bulls can get to 5500 again, look for a reversal and then you could load up on shorts. I do think it’s more likely that we will make high lows instead of lower lows and form a triangle.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-09-01: Very much like my outlook in dax. Trading range on the daily chart and we are at the highs. We could make higher ones or not. Does not matter much. I expect 5000 to be hit again in 2024.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Big ABC correction was good so far. Let’s see how low we can go.
SPYLOVERS ! The Pullback is here ! What to do next.... Good morning everyone and welcome to another weekend session. For those following the SPY, we can see that the institutional rejection did indeed occur with a double top, and it was unable to break the Al Time High (ATH), leading to a pullback that we had already predicted weeks ago.
The question is: How far will the pullback go?
I have two levels: a liquidation zone limit and a historical demand zone.
Warning: DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CATCH A FALLING KNIFE !
The idea here is to let the price do what it needs to with this drop. Once it reaches one of these two zones, we will start to see bullish volumetric candles indicating the beginning of an upward trend.
For now, this analysis has been unfolding as we have been forecasting the movement. Let the price fall, and be very alert to determine whether this is just a small pullback or a longer one. We already know where the price will likely land.
Sending greetings and thank you for supporting my study.
SPY My Opinion! BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 540.43
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 552.17
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Is there an AI bubble around the corner?Are semi conductors forming a rounded top or will they bounce on the trend support line? If you are even asking yourself if this is a serious question you are probably already late. get your calls asap. don't wait for the trend line support bc semi conductors are leading the way into AI. looking at the 265 calls sept 27 at the open on monday...
Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event. Roaring 20s, Roaring 20s Paralleled 100 Year Event.
During 1920s - 1930s we experienced a "pandemic event" in both scenarios *odd*.
It created a shock crash followed by a pandemic rebound that the masses called "bubble" this is where valuations broke due to a black swan event.
We use the SMA 2D (200) that shows the larger trend of the market and we see similarities of this "bubble" crash bounce in 1922-1924, oddly similar to 2022-2024 right?.
What's even more dangerous about today is the market in the roaring 20s was held back by the Gold dollar peg, today? we don't even have that. We just have interest rates.
Following the 1924 situation the New York FED cut funding rates to avoid a "unemployment crisis" and it began the fueling of the final stage of a major bubble.
Differences? during the pandemic in the 2020s Governments forced central banks to print trillions and trillions and enforce lock downs to stop the circulation of the currency. Following this they then raised interest rates globally sucking capital back into "bills" "Money Market Funds".
What happens next?, the FRED will cut interest rates aggressively to avoid unemployment spiking trying to front run the future and in return these rates being lowered will rally bonds and release capital and new leverage back onto the market based on the debasement of QE we experienced. Yes the QE during the pandemic barely touched the markets where people were calling 2022 a "bubble".
SPX/USM2 has broken out of a major trend while the FRED aggressively raised interest rates indicating this new "trend" cannot be contained without raising rates higher and its impossible to do so with the Government debt interest.
A new bubble fueled by
"Artificial Intelligence, Bitcoin, Electric Cars, Robotics, Biotechnology"
could be rivalling the
"automobile, radio, and electricity" fuel of the 1920s.
The big question is does it end in a giant crash without a depression? and the answer will ultimately be how well the leveraged is contained in the later stages of the market.
Stock Market | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFT AnalysisQQQ Forecast
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SPY: Bullish Continuation
Our strategy, polished by years of trial and error has helped us identify what seems to be a great trading opportunity and we are here to share it with you as the time is ripe for us to buy SPY.
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US Jobs Disappoint - Inflation on DeckThe "September Effect" is in full bloom as the markets are down 4-5% from September's first trading week.
10 year average for September is -.9%
70 year average for September is -.7%
We may see high volatility all over again with Aug 5 lows being threatened, or we may see the risk off tone has been front loaded and next week is all about inflation with US CPI/PPI to potentially fend off more selling with improvements in the inflation trends (e.g. lower inflation = better for market sentiment).
This video is a bit longer, but I appreciate you checking it out and watching. Once we're through inflation news, it's all about the FED on Sep 18, then more employment/inflation news, then election. Those are major catalysts to posture us for the remainder of the year.
Long-term investors the game is simple
Short-term investors are all over the place
Profits and Losses happen, just don't do anything silly.
Enjoy the weekend!!!
SPY 30-Minute Chart Analysis: Bearish Channel FormingLooking at the SPY 30-minute chart, the price is clearly in a bearish channel, with each rally getting rejected and lower lows being made consistently. Let me walk you through the key details.
What’s Happening:
Downward Channel: The price is following a downward-sloping channel, which began forming at the peak near $563. Since then, the price has been steadily declining, with lower highs and lower lows, bouncing off the upper and lower trendlines.
Resistance at $546.70: There was a strong rejection from the $546.70 level, further confirming this area as a key resistance. Every time the price approaches this level, sellers step in aggressively.
Key Support at $539.60: We’re currently hovering just above this level. If we break through $539.60, the next key support zone lies around $528.44, which could be the next target for sellers.
What I Expect:
Bearish Continuation: Given the strength of the downward channel, I’m expecting more downside. If $539.60 fails to hold, we could see a further drop towards the $528.44 level.
Possible Bounce: On the other hand, if the price finds support around $539.60, we might see a short-term bounce back toward the upper trendline, around $546.70, before more selling pressure sets in.
Final Thoughts:
Right now, SPY is clearly in a downtrend, and I’m watching the $539.60 level closely. A break below it could open the door for further declines, but a bounce from here could present a short-term trading opportunity. Stay cautious as the bearish momentum continues!
ES Daily Bullflag to 6kAs the other 2 major indices (NQ/YM) ES ended the month very strong right at the breakout point of its flag.
Upside price target is the previous ATH at 5721.25 and 6000 on a break of that high
E.L.E.2Just another day at the office...
Plotting the SPX median line shows something quite ordinary.
No problem is apparent. All is well in the financial markets.
Classic candle charts hide the truth, as I have many times explained.
SPX now prints a bear 2M bar on the 3-line-break chart.
This simply means that a bearish engulfing has taken place on a significantly large timeframe.
These things come up rarely. They must not be ignored.
... Extinction Level Event 2
On the main chart we see a massive RSI divergence taking shape.
Coupled with a massive bearish engulfing, fear is beginning to hit.
Too much has accumulated in Big Tech. (Notice the bull confirmation)
SPX Democracy is at a multi-year low.
The XLK vs SPY ratio has reached the 2000 levels. (Notice the bear confirmation)
The .com bubble burst is coming again.
No big stock is safe from this event...
MSFT
META
There is really no point showing more. If you get it, you get it.
Mayday Mayday Mayday
Brace for impact
SPY 5-Minute Chart Analysis Targeting Opening Range BreakoutLooking at the SPY 5-minute chart, we’re seeing some clear bearish signals after what seemed like a potential recovery. Let me walk you through the main things that stand out.
What I’m Seeing:
Resistance at $554.41: The price reached a high of $554.41 but failed to hold, showing clear rejection at this level. This resistance has become a key point, as each attempt to break above it has been met with selling pressure.
Drop to $541.77: We’re now seeing a sharp decline, with the price currently sitting around $541.77. This steep drop indicates that the sellers have firmly taken control.
Failed Support at $548: Earlier, $548 was providing some support, but once that level broke, it led to a cascade of selling down to the $541 - $542 zone.
What I Expect:
Further Downside: Given the current momentum, I wouldn’t be surprised if we test the $540.97 level soon. If this level breaks, we could see a deeper drop, potentially targeting the $540 psychological level or even lower.
Potential Bounce: If buyers step in around this $541 zone, we might see a short-term bounce. But unless we reclaim $548, I’m not convinced that a reversal is coming.
My Takeaway: Right now, the price action is heavily favouring the bears. The failed break above $554 and the sharp drop tell me to stay cautious. If I were trading, I’d lean towards short positions unless we see a strong reversal above $548.
Let’s see how it unfolds!
SPY is forming a strong downward trendSPY is forming clear downward trend showing more selling to come.
Sold off with momentum and increasing volume indicating strength in the move
We are in the beginning of September which is normally a bad month
We should expect selling to continue
SPY is in the midst of a sell off. Best right now to wait for signs that selling has slowed and starting to reverse course before entering any bullish positions.
