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Why Monitoring S&P 500 Futures is My Morning Trading Ritual!Every morning before the trading day begins, I have a ritual: I analyze the S&P 500 futures. For me, this isn’t just a routine—it's a crucial step in gauging the market's direction. The S&P 500 futures offer a snapshot of market sentiment and potential movements long before the regular trading session opens. By examining the overnight action, I can identify key levels of support and resistance, and understand the market's mood—whether it's risk-on or risk-off. This early insight helps me set the tone for my trading day, allowing me to make informed decisions, anticipate possible trends, and adjust my strategies accordingly. In a market where timing and positioning are everything, starting my day with a clear picture of where the broader market might be headed gives me a competitive edge. It’s about being proactive rather than reactive—preparing for the day’s opportunities and challenges with confidence.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by WallSt007
S&P 500 Index SPX To Rally FurtherThe S&P 500 index SPX is just 50 points away from breaching the previous all-time high. The minutes of the Fed’s July 30-31 meeting, released Wednesday, said the “vast majority” of policymakers “observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting.” Traders had already considered it a certainty that the Fed will announce its first interest rate cut in four years when it meets in mid-September. SPX next targets: 5680 - 5825.
SP:SPXLong
by AlyaAkram
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-22 : Flat-Down PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will stay within a flat/downward type of price trend. In this video I cover Gold, Bitcoin, and the SPY. What I see is a consolidated flagging formation across many markets. As I suggested early on Monday - this week may be the week to go golfing or find something fun to do as it appears the SPY/QQQ and other are simply trading sideways (flagging). We'll see how things play out today. I would not be surprized to be saying the same thing tomorrow morning. As we close out the week, get ready for a bigger price move into late August/early-September. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
What Wall of Worry? Path of Least Resistance for NowI reviewed an interesting study Tuesday about V bottoms. Over 20 years of data showing the average "V Bottom" takes nearly 1 year to come back and get into positive territory. The fact that all US Indexes and many stocks have done this in 10-15 trading trades is pretty remarkable. Will we more path of least resistance at all-time highs or will we see resistance actual hold for a beat. All US Markets closing green today, Russell 2000 led the indexes today with +1.30% DXY hitting fresh lows, but 101 and 100 are major technical support levels that I'm watching. Review at your convenience. Thanks for watching!!!
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ChrisPulver
2
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 8-21 : Markets Top & StallAs I suggested in Monday's video, the SPY Cycle Patterns predicted today's TOP more than six months ago. Tomorrow's inside/harami pattern suggests the markets will stall out the rest of this week. I urged traders to prepare to wait out this week and sit on the sidelines. When the markets stall like this, it is best to avoid trying to trade in tight ranges. Wait it out and maybe pick out a few great swing trades for next week's rally phase. This update shows you why Bitcoin, Gold, and the SPY/QQQ will continue to stall and stay in a sideways price trend. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
Preparing For A Potential Double-Top HereTraders, As you all know, the SPY has been moving EXACTLY as anticipated by me the last two years. And that worries me. Don't get me wrong, I have thoroughly enjoy the profits that have come with getting it right, but what we have to be careful about when doing so well is over-confidence. Because if we don't take a couple of steps back and say to ourselves, "I could get it wrong this time", then we could likely get it wrong. The market loves to humble cocky traders. And that is why I have sold half of my longs once again ...just in case I could be wrong. So, you can all read my previous posts and calls on the SPY, but for new readers, let me just catch you up with a brief summary to give you some context. About 2 years ago, after the market had dropped and many investors thought it would continue down, I came under the persuasion that it would soon reverse. Though, I am a rookie when it comes to Elliot Wave, I had noticed some other contrarian traders and chartists had begun to explain from a fundamental basis why it would move up soon. These same investors began plotting a likely blow-off top scenario based on fundamentals, market psychology, and Elliot Wave theory. It made sense to me but I was hesitant to go full in based on this information alone. I began reading more about market fundamentals and psychology and learned that most of what I read actually supported the idea of a blow-off top. Then I spotted another pattern on the daily chart (an inverse head and shoulders pattern) which strengthened the theory even more. This pattern gave me my SPY target of 570. You can still see that Previous Target outlined here on my chart. We nearly reached that target. Missed it by a few dollars. It was there that I sold half. And right on time. The Japanese carry trade flash crashed the markets and down we went. As we were nearing the 200 DMA, I spotted a new bullish pattern on the weekly chart. This was a Cup and Handle. I bought back in near the bottom recognizing that this blow-off top was probably not at an end ...yet. Fast forward to today. We are once again nearing my Previous Target of SPY 570 and though we could move even higher (and I honestly believe we will), I want to prepare for a scenario where I could be wrong. You can see from the chart here that we may also be forming a bearish double-top or M-Pattern. If this is the case, it is wise for me to prepare for another drop soon. Thus, I have once again, sold half. Should the M-Pattern play out, I will likely buy back in around the 200 DMA (wherever this happens to be at the time) because I still believe that Cup and Handle pattern on the 2-week chart will play out and that the blow-off top will not end until we reach 650-700 on the SPY. Obviously, this forcast could change based upon significant geo-political/global events. But for now, this is how I see it going. Scenario 2: If we do not drop and that M-Pattern becomes invalidated. I will also buy back in should we exceed my previous target on the chart. In either case, updates will follow.
AMEX:SPY
by stewdamus
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-21 : Top Pattern Today.I expect the SPY to move into a moderate bullish price phase, attempting to peak somewhere below 561-563, then roll into a moderate downward price trend - possibly ending the day near 553-556. Why do I expect the SPY to roll to the downside after peaking today? My SPY Cycle Pattern shows a TOP pattern today. Top patterns usually start with a moderate uptrend, leading to a peak in price, followed by a moderately sustained pullback/downtrend. The 553-556 level is the nearest moderate support level. The 561-563 level is just above yesterday's high and well into the SPY upper GAP window, which will likely act as resistance. Buckle up because we are moving into at least 2~3 days of trending sideways before transitioning back into the rally phase. Gold may attempt to move above $2570 today. Bitcoin needs to find support, otherwise a breakdown in price in likely over the next 3+ days. It should be fun to see how things play out this week.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2024-08-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Got their expected pullback but indexes have still not touched even the 4h 20ema. Markets closed near their open which was near yesterdays close. Mostly. Since bears could not even print something than a bear doji, we can expect more sideways at the highs before we will probably get another breakout above. sp500 e-mini futures comment: Small stop in the meltup but bulls bought it above the bull trend line. Same as for dax that I do not expect anything below 5600 for now and it should not go above 5650 before FOMC or you can consider me surprised. If anything, I’d bet on a bull breakout and not for strong bears. current market cycle: Bull trend inside the big trading range on the daily chart key levels: 5600 - 5650 bull case: Bulls are currently buying the 2h 20ema and did so today. If they keep it above 5600 then 5650 is probably a magnet for tomorrow. On the 1h chart posted today was a two legged pullback down to the current channel and odds favor the bulls to trade back up. Invalidation is below 5600. bear case: Bears are happy with stopping the advance and scalps. They took profits at new lows today and the market was barely red on the daily chart. I absolutely expect bears to come around big time again but just not right now. Can JPOW surprise the markets this week or can the market look for an excuse to sell it hard again? Sure. Is this more likely than a continuation up? No. Invalidation is above 5650. short term: max bullish above 5600. Below I turn neutral and wait. medium-long term: Bearish. I gave the 5000 target 3 months ago and we almost got there way earlier than expected. There is a reasonable chance we will see an event unfolding over the next days/weeks. Something breaks during these violent moves and this time will not be different. current swing trade: Nope. trade of the day: Selling above 5635 was good multiple times but only for scalps tbh.
CME_MINI:MES1!Long
by priceactiontds
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-20 Update : No Bozu YetPrice needs to make a move if we are going to see a Bozu Trending bar today. The levels I drew in the morning video were perfect (so far). We have seen the SPY do nothing most of the day and that means price is likely shifting away from trending - into Flagging. My expectations are for price to attempt to setup a high/low range over the next 2~3 trading days, then move into a consolidated/sideways flagging formation. This is a great time to prepare for the next big move (next week) and to try to plan your trades around this Flag/Base type of formation before the Vortex Rally sends the SPY higher. This video covers SPY, Gold, BTCUSD. Get some.. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-20 : BozuTrending Counter-TrendToday's Bozu Trending bar in counter-trend mode could be very exciting. Bozu trending bars are typically relatively large and represent a strong price trend. As we move closer to the upper GAP window, we may see the SPY rally through that window today—or we may see the SPY pull downward, away from that GAP, and attempt to retest support near 552. Please watch today's video because the Counter-Trend mode of the Bozu pattern suggests we may see a downward price bar today. I've highlighted two key price areas we need to watch regarding which direction the SPY will attempt to trend today. If we stay within those two price levels - price will stay muted today. Otherwise, I expect the markets to BIAS to the upside but counter-trend to the downside. It should be an interesting day for trading. Gold is RIPPING and Bitcoin appears ready for a ripper rally. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
Bulls Say "Can't Stop Won't Stop" - S&P 1% from All-Time HighsIt's as if the markets couldn't wait to open on Monday and continue what they've been doing for 9 of 11 trading days - push higher. S&P +.96% Nasdaq +1.31% Dow +.58% Russell 1.22% For a Monday, it was a pretty directional day. Wed-Fri is when the US news hits (FOMC Minutes, PMI, Jackson Hole, Powell Speech) so let's see if the party bus continues to rock until something forces a pause. S&P is a mere 1% off of the all-time highs. All of these comebacks are mighty impressive considering it's the bears that usually accelerate the direction - these bulls are highly motivated.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ChrisPulver
SPY S&P500 ETF W-Shaped RecoveryIf you haven`t bought the previous correction: Now historically, the SPY S&P500 ETF has demonstrated a consistent pattern where a Relative Strength Index (RSI) at or below 30 triggers buying activity. This technical indicator, typically viewed as signaling an oversold condition, has reliably attracted investors looking to capitalize on perceived undervaluation. As a result, these dips have been quickly bought up, suggesting a strong market tendency to rebound from such low RSI levels. I expect the recovery to be V-shaped or W-shaped, ending the year higher.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
Will The SPY Hit 650-700?Just an update on progress in the markets. The dollar has hit my support level already. Because of the quick drop, I expect it to continue to drop even further, though we may get a bit of a bounce first. The Vix is back down and inside of our long-standing sideways channel. And gold has hit its target to the upside. Plus we'll talk about where the SPY (and U.S. Stock market) is going. That section of the video begins around 07:30 if you want to skip right to the title content of the video. And towards the end of the video, we'll of course discuss where I think Bitcoin is still going before the end of the year and also, where I think it will end up by the end of next year. These are longer-term targets but they are not solely predicated upon technical analysis. Though the technicals do help support my claims, there is also some fundamental rationale for why I believe the markets remain so volatile, but overall, they will continue their journey upwards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by stewdamus
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-19 : Gap Potential (Consolidation)This short video shows you why I believe the US markets will move into a consolidation phase over the next 5-7 days. This phase will likely represent moderate volatility with a Bozu Trending bar on Tuesday (8-20). That Bozu Trending bar may be very explosive in price range. Sit back, wait for the lows to setup over the next 5+ days and position your trades for the bigger Vortex rally phase setting up in about 7+ days. If my research is correct, by 8-26 or so, we should be moving back into the Vortex Rally phase again. Gold, Bitcoin, Silver, SPY, QQQ and others will likely consolidate this week unless there is big news. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BradMatheny
3
Using the iShares TIP Bond ETF to predict the S&P price reversalThe iShares TIP Bond ETF serves as an inflation-protected investment by adjusting its principal based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This makes it a valuable tool for macroeconomic analysis, as it provides insight into how inflation expectations are being priced into the market which gives early reversal signs when observing the MS on the weekly chart. As illustrated in the accompanying chart, when the ETF’s value (i.e., the inflation-adjusted principal) rises, the S&P 500 and Bitcoin often exhibit upward momentum, while the ETF’s yield typically declines. This inverse relationship occurs because the ETF becomes more appealing when riskier assets are expected to under perform, especially during periods of rising inflation. Investors should consider the ETF’s price adjustments in response to CPI data. For example, if CPI begins to decline and interest rates peak, the ETF may become less attractive, prompting investors to shift toward high-cap, risk-on assets in equities and potentially Bitcoin. It is also important to note that the price of this ETF can rise due to increased demand, regardless of inflation expectations. Therefore, a comprehensive, contextual understanding of market cycles is essential when evaluating its position in a broader investment strategy.
SP:SPXLong
by Ramiknfr
2
August 18th Weekly Watchlist LevelsI go over my weekly levels. Overall I think we have a lot of potential this week to keep moving up before elections. We also have a lot of possible gap fills on QQQ and SPY. Thanks for watching my videos and learning with me if you are new to watching my videos. I appreciate all of the love I got from my last video. Leave a comment with how long you have been trading for in the comments if you are new to my profile :) Lets make some good money this week everyone!!!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by carsonusa5