1/20 Weekly Watchlist + NotesWeekly Watchlist and Market Analysis Using #TheStrat
Indexes - SPY went failed 2D week following the previous week going 3 and we nearly went 3 on this last week, but came up short with little room to go to previous week highs. This week we look to go 3-2-2U to confirm the month being failed 2D that has now retraced more than 50% of the previous months range, meaning we are now closer to taking out previous month highs than we are to reclaiming previous month lows. With full timeframe continuity green, we know that buyers are full in control at the moment, and this upcoming week looks to confirm that further as we look to target previous weekly highs on our way up to ATH levels. No daily actionable signal and a couple daily gaps to the downside, so we will see what happens Tuesday pre market whether we gap down to give last weeks buyers some corrective activity, whether we gap up, clear weekly magnitude (at the high of the weekly 3 from the week prior to this last week) before seeing if we expand further to confirm the month attempting to go 3 or begin reversing back through last weeks range. Finally, we may just open flat and see where intraday signals and continuity take us.
(Slightly pressed for time at the time of writing so I apologize for the lack of detail like my normal posts)
Watchlist:
Bullish:
NVDA - 2-1-2U Daily, 2-2 Weekly. Daily BF looks interesting
PLTR - 3-2-2U Weekly. High rVOL
WMT - Hammer 2-2 Week, MoMo Hammer Daily. Inside green Month which isn't great this late in the month, but not bad enough to ruin this setup for me
DLTR - Hammer 3-2-2U weekly after month went 3. Looking to go back through the months range now. Note: DG full FTFC red so no sector support
IONQ - 3-1 Week at M Exhaustion. MASSIVE range on this one. Nearly 30% underlying move from weekly trigger to magnitude
HIMS - Hammer failed 2D, Weekly 3-1, Failed 2D month attempting to go 3
Bearish:
DOCU - Weekly 3-2-2 Shooter. Daily Big red 3 following double inside day so potential 3-2D daily to trigger shooter week down. Filling in massive gap from the last earnings report
Neutral:
DAL + UAL: Both have inside weeks. DAL at exhaustion risk. UAL bright green. Relative strength in the airline industry
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPY Will Collapse! SELL!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on SPY and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 597.55 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bearish continuation.
Target - 588.41
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
XLP vs SPY: Staples vs SPYConsumer staples vs SPY is at historical lows on the monthly chart. Last time it touched multi year low, then we saw a multi-year Bull market from 2000-2007. XLP had a fantastic bull run against the indexes like SPY and QQQs during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and reached ATH during 2009. Since then, the XLP has been bleeding against the S&P 500. It tried to reclaim the high in 2026 but suffered failed top. Since 2016 the ratio has been in a bear market and makes lower lows and lower highs. Recently it broke the multi-year low and is making lower lows. Weakness in Staples indicates a risk on trade in favor of the momentum indices like SPY and QQQ.
SPY SENDS CLEAR BEARISH SIGNALS|SHORT
Hello, Friends!
SPY pair is trading in a local uptrend which we know by looking at the previous 1W candle which is green. On the 5H timeframe the pair is going up too. The pair is overbought because the price is close to the upper band of the BB indicator. So we are looking to sell the pair with the upper BB line acting as resistance. The next target is 586.47 area.
✅LIKE AND COMMENT MY IDEAS✅
QQQ/SPY - Which way will it break?For the last 4 years (2020-2024), we have been in a narrow band where--generally speaking--SPY and QQQ have performed comparably. 2022 is the notable exception, where inflation increased rapidly and QQQ underperformed SPY.
For the prior 12 years before that (2008-2020), QQQ outperformed SPY handedly. Inflation was low. Interest rates were held at ~0%.
When you overlap the last 16 year channel with the last 4 years horizontal band it becomes clear that one (or both!) of these trends will break down.
Option 1: Inflation is under control, and the last 16 year channel is sustained. 4-year trend breaks.
Option 2: Inflation remains in limbo, and we stay in the new 2-year horizontal channel; 16-year trend breaks.
Option 3: Inflation is rampant, and QQQ underperforms SPY. Both trends broken.
What's it going to be?
SPY What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
My technical analysis for SPY is below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 580.51
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear buy, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 591.67
My Stop Loss - 576.09
About Used Indicators:
By the very nature of the supertrend indicator, it offers firm support and resistance levels for traders to enter and exit trades. Additionally, it also provides signals for setting stop losses
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
This or That? Is the Market Choosing This?Trading Family,
Similar patterns on the SPY and BTC chart. But there was also conflicting data on both. There was a bearish head and shoulders pattern on both charts, but there was also bullish data on both charts. The market is conflicted but it is now looking that they may choose to side with the bulls. Let's review the charts.
✌️ Stew
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-17-25 : Gap Up Higher PatternToday's pattern is a Gap Up Higher in Counter Trend mode.
I believe this pattern would have resulted in a Gap Down Lower price trend related to the counter-trend setup. But it looks like the foreign markets drove the SPY/QQQ higher.
The obvious disruption to the SPY Cycle Patterns recently has come from the post-election concerns and the expectations of a broader credit/debt market crisis (which seems to be subsiding).
I believe we have to get past the Inauguration before we'll be able to see if the markets attempt to establish any defined price trend or continue to trade in a sideways price mode.
Gold and Silver are struggling to muscle higher - which I believe is the likely outcome for metals.
BTCUSD has moved back above $100k - but may struggle above the downward-sloping price channel.
Overall, at this point, I would suggest traders pull profits on any trades they have open as we move into the new Trump Administration and a slew of new EOs and new policies that may disrupt the markets.
We are very likely going to see some new price volatility over the next 30+ days.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-16 : Momentum Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the markets will continue a rally phase - trending on the momentum from yesterday. It is likely the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally and break away from the downward-sloping price channel I show on my charts.
Remember, my broader cycle pattern research suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to rally into Jan 20-23, then peak and roll downward/sideways into a Feb 9-10 V-Bottom pattern.
As I highlight in this video, the markets appear to be moving into a consolidation phase within the current downward-sloping price channel. I'm watching to see if the new Trump administration brings a BUMP (like last time) that breaks the US markets away from this consolidation trend.
Remember, the data on the US economy and earnings continues to be strong. A Trump-Bump will likely happen again, pushing the US markets into even greater dominance as the 900-lb Gorilla compared to other global economies.
However, until global central banks can move their economies to become more independent of US economic demand and imports, the process of working through the excesses of the COVID/Spending-spree administration (Biden) will continue as long as wealth in the US goes unchallenged (by some crisis or economic event).
So, again, expect the 900lb Gorilla to continue to dominate while there is no major crisis event in the future.
Gold and Silver should rally today on a RALLY pattern as well.
I believe BTCUSD is struggling to find support and may move downward over the next 10+ days.
We'll see what happens.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.16.2024🔮
📅 Thu Jan 16
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core Retail Sales m/m: 0.5% (prev: 0.2%)
📊 Retail Sales m/m: 0.6% (prev: 0.7%)
📊 Unemployment Claims: 210K (prev: 201K)
📊 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: -5.2 (prev: -16.4)
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Craziest thing was the amount of people trying to call the top today. For tomorrow, any dip would be bought back up unless people start being unanimously bullish.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Instead of a decisive move, it will be volatile, so daytrade.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPY ROAD TO THE TOP 2025 I will post this as your road map to the final 5th wave from oct 13 2022 low to top of wave 5 of 3 in the super cycle . the likely date for the final 5th wave is now a window from 2/14 to 3/13 I will talk more about 3/13 soon I am not ready for the public to view this turn date . best of trades Wavetimer
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 1-15 Followup: Rally Into Jan 20-23This video was started to highlight the incredible predictive capabilities of my SPY Cycle Patterns and longer-term Cycle Research.
It seems almost impossible to be able to somewhat accurately predict future price moves - but I'm able to do it with moderate success - sometimes months and years into the future.
What does that mean to you - well, it should mean you want to pay attention to my research/videos and learn how to take advantage of my continued research.
This video highlights why the Doom-sayers are wrong. The markets will continue to trend upward until the 2030-2033 peak. That's when traders need to be prepared for a broad market downtrend.
But, it sure is fun getting emails and announcements from all the people that are now calling for a "great reset" to take place.
It may happen in certain countries, but this is a market of economies - not a single economic market. What happens in some countries does not always happen to all countries.
As the old saying goes - this is a market of stocks, not a stock market.
Get ready - the next 5+ years should be full of incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
The chart I am posting is The road map for QQQ The chart I am posting is that of the QQQ and what should be the pattern if We are going to see a Final 5th wave to 561 plus or minus 2 . I called for a major turn 11/29 to 12/5 from this we should see a panic or a corrective wave structure I have a grouping of 6 spiral turn from jan 19 to the 25th .I have sold All my longs as we hit price targets for the first leg up and to form the ABC rally .What next possible pattern is abc up for wave 1 or A we should see now a pullback in an abc decline back to 50 % from this we should see wave C up in the form of 12345 a 5 waves rally and break Above the down trend line as Most everyone will then get on board . The MATH projection IF and I say IF the turn of 11/29 to 12/5 was just the top of wave 3 of 5 then we will see the HIGH for 2025 at 561 plus or minus 2 I have dates of FEB 14 and march 13th As MAJOR turns based on the fib cycles and Spirals . You should wait to see conformation . in the pullback before buying longs again . BEST OF TRADES WAVETIMER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 1-15 : Inside BreakawayToday is going to be a very interesting day.
Mortgage data came in very strong, while CPI data came in moderately weaker. That is setting up a very strong GAP RALLY phase in the markets.
Shorts are going to get SQUEEZED HARD this morning, and I suspect we may see a carry-through rally lasting most of the day.
Be cautious of a pullback after the big GAP opening (higher) this morning.
Gold and Silver are attempting to move higher - which is perfect if the US Dollar weakens moderately. Overall, Gold and Silver are attempting to hedge risk factors into 2025.
Bitcoin will likely run into resistance just below $100k and attempt to fall downward again.
This is a very exciting week because it appears the markets are shaking off the debt/credit/yields concerns and moving back to normal.
Remember, where else will investors place their capital for Growth and Returns - other than the US? As I see it, the US markets are still the 900lb Gorilla in the global markets simply because of the ability of the US economy to rebound and recover much quicker than other foreign economies.
Get some.
BIG SHORT SQUEEZE this morning.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Nightly $SPX / $SPY Predictions for 1.15.2024🔮
📅 Wed Jan 15
⏰ 8:30am
📊 Core CPI m/m: 0.3% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI m/m: 0.4% (prev: 0.3%)
📊 CPI y/y: 2.9% (prev: 2.7%)
📊 Empire State Manufacturing Index: 2.7 (prev: 0.2)
⏰ 10:30am
🛢️ Crude Oil Inventories: -1.0M
💡 Market Insights:
📈 GAP ABOVE HPZ:
On a gap up, we will hold and run higher. Weekly will pin it down.
📊 OPEN WITHIN EEZ:
Pullbacks here and there but will get bought up.
📉 GAP BELOW HCZ:
Everyone will eat up this drop; definitely look to position bullish here...again.
#trading #stock #stockmarket #today #daytrading #swingtrading #charting #investing
SPY Mid week analysis 1/14/25SPY - Monthly reversal is now being negated as we moved back above the monthly 2-2d trigger at Prev Month Low. We are also now failed 2D coming back through previous week range. The daily went 2-2 rev, but closed failed 2u as we made higher highs, but closed red near mid range of the day. The question for tomorrow is do we continue pushing back through last weeks range to expand the BF created by the 3 from last week, or do we take the failed 2u - 2D reversal, reconfirm the Monthly reversal down as well as the weekly 3-2D. We have a 3-1 setup on the 4HR as well as an inside bar 60 which is what I will be watching going into open tomorrow assuming no gap up or down. Should be an exciting rest of the week as we look to see if bears can reclaim control on the W and M, or if Bulls are setting up for a recovery back to ATH.
Levels to watch: Current 60 inside bar High and Low, Current 4HR bar high and low, Prev month low, 585.96 for upside which is the 2-2U rev target we did not get to today, but may compound 2Us tomorrow to get to if the bull scenario is playing out.