Comprehensive Technical Analysis: SPX 10-Minute ChartThis SPX 10-minute chart shows a clear intraday shift from a bearish to a bullish trend, accompanied by multiple technical signals. Let’s break down the analysis across different technical components:
1. Trend Analysis:
Initial Downtrend: The session started with bearish momentum as indicated by Put Signals and declining price action. The lower lows created a brief bearish trend that ended with a strong reversal.
Bullish Reversal: The reversal is confirmed by a series of Call Signals after a strong bullish breakout from the previous consolidation zone. The price broke above a significant resistance level around 5,731.94, leading to a steady uptrend.
2. Moving Averages:
Short-Term Moving Average (Orange Line):
This acts as immediate support during the bullish run. The price consistently stays above this line, indicating short-term bullish strength.
The slope of the moving average is steep, reflecting increasing bullish momentum.
Mid-Term Moving Average (Blue Line):
Positioned further below, the blue moving average provides a broader support level. This indicates that the medium-term trend remains supportive of the upward move, showing a well-established bullish context.
3. Heikin Ashi Candles:
Bullish Momentum: The Heikin Ashi candles display a strong bullish pattern with several consecutive yellow candles and minimal lower wicks, indicating reduced volatility on the downside.
Temporary Pullback: A few red candles appear, marking brief consolidation but not a trend reversal. The continuation of yellow candles afterward confirms sustained bullish pressure.
4. Key Signals and Levels:
Entry Long: A long entry signal is observed after the breakout around 5,731.94, which was an excellent point for entering the bullish trade.
Exit Long: The Exit Long signal near 5,776.76 suggests taking profits after the bullish move. This level now serves as short-term resistance.
Support Levels:
Immediate Support: 5,755.43 – A pullback to this level would still align with the bullish structure as long as it holds.
Major Support: 5,731.94 – This level marks the breakout point, acting as a strong floor for further bullish moves.
5. Volume and Momentum:
Although volume is not displayed, typically such strong moves (as indicated by Heikin Ashi and moving averages) are accompanied by rising volume.
Momentum: Bullish momentum remains high, supported by consistent upward price movement and the sustained hold above the moving averages.
6. Resistance and Future Outlook:
Immediate Resistance: The price is facing resistance at 5,776.76. A break above this could open the path to higher levels, potentially testing psychological levels like 5,800.
Continuation or Pullback: If the price breaks above 5,776, we can expect a continuation of the uptrend. However, a failure at this resistance might lead to a short-term pullback to 5,755 or even 5,731.
Conclusion:
The chart reflects a strong bullish reversal with clear signals of upward momentum. Traders should watch the 5,776 level for a breakout confirmation or potential pullback to the key support levels at 5,755 and 5,731. Maintaining the trend above the orange and blue moving averages will be crucial for sustained bullish movement.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
SPY: Watch Out For These Turning Points (D&W Charts).Daily Chart (Left)
Resistance and Support Levels : Both $574 and $565 have served as support and resistance points in the past, and are good examples of how the Principle of Polarity works in technical analysis - when broken, support points become resistance points, and vice versa. At the moment, SPY is struggling near $574, its current resistance, which is very close to the 21-day EMA. If it fails to break it, $565 is its next stop.
EMA and Price Action : The price has recently tested the 21-day EMA, and while it experienced a brief dip below this moving average, it has recovered. The EMA could act as immediate resistance if there is continued upward pressure. In addtion, the 21-day EMA is pointing down, reinforcing the short-term downtrend.
Short-Term Pattern : The presence of lower highs/lows indicates weakening momentum, so keeping an eye on whether the price can break above $574.71 or fall below $565.16 is crucial.
Weekly Chart (Right)
Uptrend Line : The long-term uptrend is intact with a supporting trend line dating back to late 2023. This trend line, coupled with the current support level at $565.16, will be pivotal for sustaining the broader uptrend.
EMA Support : The weekly EMA is also below the current price, suggesting a positive long-term trend. Any pullback to this level would still be within an acceptable correction phase.
Conclusion:
SPY is currently at a decisive point. If it manages to break above the $574.71 resistance, the uptrend could gain strength . Conversely, a failure to hold above $565.16 might trigger a pullback to the weekly trend line or EMA, materializing a long-term pullback (but not reversing the long-trend seen on the weekly chart, just triggering a sharper correction). This is a crucial watch zone for both bulls and bears to define short- to medium-term strategies.
For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions.
Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation.
“To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore
All the best,
Nathan.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-5 : Election DayThis video highlights what I believe is likely to happen today and into tonight (when the real news will hit). Additionally, I continue to warn that a price anomaly is very likely starting sometime after November 10.
Ultimately, the markets will struggle throughout the rest of the week, likely becoming a bit more volatile after the election.
I do believe the markets will move into the price anomaly event near November 10th and that event will likely transition into a big opportunity for traders sometime after November 15-18.
My ADL predictive modeling system is showing this anomaly event is highly likely in certain sectors.
Overall, I suggest traders continue to trade small allocation levels today as we get past "election day". The bigger opportunities come over the next 3 to 6+ months.
Today is not the day to be a hero. Today is the day to sit back, maybe target a few decent trades, and wait for the dust to settle.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
US Election, FED Rate Cut, 1,200+ earnings - Here we go!!!It's Election Eve and I thought it was important to share how I'm positioning for the US Election and all of the craziness that it may bring.
Maybe it's all hype, maybe it's the truest test of US Democracy, maybe it's the beginning of the end. I'm not going to opine on political preference. I'm simply going to focus on current levels and what's in play.
Pullback levels for me are all pretty visually friendly with EMA combos on the Daily and Weekly charts. We are 3-4% off from recent highs, the market wasn't in love with Mag 7 earnings last week, pre-election jitters are fairly obvious, and the market will be looking for a reason to do something.
Expect volatility - and I hope it's nothing wild and crazy like Aug 1-5. I discuss the potential concern for a US Election where a winner is not declared and we wait days or longer for an official winner. Also a phenomenon is the Wednesday close for the S&P tends to show solid short-term direction, but I believe that's only if we see a winner Tuesday night for election night (just my opinion).
I'm hedged, alerts are set, it's all happening whether we like it or not. Focus on what you can control in your trading and let's figure it out.
Thanks for watching!!!
Daily Chart, H&S leading to future upward trend.On my ever-so sophisticated daily chart (draft w/crayons) Im looking at a potential H&S completion this week before finding support in the 560-555 range. After, opportunity exists for a Santa Rally and continued positive momentum through January toward next resistance levels.
Market Leading Indicators - suggests DOWNThis is my most summarized panel of leading indicators which I use to assist in the determination of market projections, over and above technical indicators.
The SG10Y is about to break out
The JNK bonds are breaking down
Both TIPS and TLT have already broken down the uptrend support (bearish trend now)
The SOXL (semicon ETF) and the combined US Equities are just about to keel over.
Leads have turned down or are at the turning point.
Heads up!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-4: Election Week Is HereGood morning, everyone.
This video highlights why I believe traders should stay very cautious through the early portion of this week and into next week. My research suggests the SPY & QQQ will stay somewhat range bound this week while the markets move into a SHOCK phase.
The elections are really going to take center-stage and even though I expect some reaction after the election are over - I'm not seeing any real trending opportunity in the SPY/QQQ until after November 20-25.
Thus, I suggest traders stay in a 80-85% CASH mode and trade very small allocation levels over the next 2-3 weeks. There is nothing wrong with moving into a CASH position and sitting on that cash till the market show more opportunity for profits.
Gold and Silver will struggle within a sideways range over the next 5 to 8+ days. The election event will likely drive some volatility in metals, but I see metals stalling out for at least 3-4 more days - trading in a sideways range.
Ultimately the SPY/QQQ, Gold & Silver are going to attempt to break downward - away from the Phase #3 & #4 consolidation phase. I see that as the Anomaly Event I discuss in this video.
Bitcoin appears to have already starting to break downward, away from the Phase #3 & #4 Excess Phase Peak setup. In this case, Bitcoin may be leading the global markets a bit and attempting to find the Ultimate Low over the next 2+ weeks.
Still, at this stage, the best advice I can offer is move assets to CASH and wait out the consolidation in the markets. Again, I don't see the markets moving into any real trending until after February 12-13 and possibly as late as February 20-25.
Buckle up. I think the markets are going to go into Anaphylactic Shock because of the election and post-election events.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPX500 H1 | Overlap resistance at 38.2% Fibonacci retracementSPX500 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 5,769.26 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 5,804.00 which is a level that sits above the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 5,727.17 which is a swing-low support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 64% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763), please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to FXCM (‘Company’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘TFA Global Pte Ltd’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by TFA Global Pte Ltd.
The speaker(s) is neither an employee, agent nor representative of FXCM and is therefore acting independently. The opinions given are their own, constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of FXCM or any form of personal or investment advice. FXCM neither endorses nor guarantees offerings of third-party speakers, nor is FXCM responsible for the content, veracity or opinions of third-party speakers, presenters or participants.
#202444 - priceactiontds - weekly update - sp500 e-mini futuresGood Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500: Bearish. 5730 was expected support and if bears are strong, 5800 stays resistance now. Expecting more sideways movement before another impulse down. Next target for bears is 5600 and bulls need a daily close above 5800. Thursday’s selling was strong enough for more downside but could also just have been distorted price action since it was end of the month. Friday was disappointing for bears already, which is why I think the selling is not as strong as hoped.
Quote from last week:
comment: Another disappointing week for the bulls. Big question now is the same as for dax and nq, was this the last before a deeper pullback or can we print 6000 before 5700? I don’t know and I am not going to pretend I do. Market is in breakout mode and the triangle has a bit more room to go. We simply need more price action because right now the market is in balance around 5870.
comment: Reasoning here is almost identical to dax and nasdaq. Selling was strong enough for a second leg and a measured move leads down to 5555, which is near the 50% retracement. I won’t repeat the same stuff here what I wrote for dax.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 5700 - 6000
bull case: 6000 remains bulls target but if we get a daily close below 5700, we will likely see 5550 before 6000. If we stay above, we will continue sideways.
Invalidation is below 5700.
bear case: Bears need to keep the pullback shallow and probably below the daily ema 5830. If they manage, their next target is 5670 which is the weekly 20ema and below that is 5555 for the measured move target, 50% retracement and July low.
Invalidation is above 5830.
outlook last week:
short term: Neutral. Bearish below 5820 for 5800, below 5800 we likely see 5730. Bullish above 5860 for 5880+ and above 5930 we will see 6000.
→ Last Sunday we traded 5846 and now we are at 5758. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral until we break below 5700. I favor some more sideways movement before the second leg down but it should stay below 5830.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added current valid bear trend lines and a potential bearish wave series down to 5555.
Hey SPYLOVERS here are 3 Scenarios for this week check it out...Another week analyzing SPY's behavior correctly as we planned. I’d like to invite you to review my previous analyses of the price movements throughout the week, so you can see that I base my strategy solely on price action and institutional supply and demand concepts—simple methods that the price has respected.
In this case, we won’t be seeing historical highs anytime soon. I believe we’re in a pullback where we need to monitor closely to see if the price might return to the order block I have around $563.60. This area is significant because it’s where the highest concentration of orders in the market is currently positioned.
If we look at the last candle SPY closed with, although it ended higher than the previous one, it’s still showing selling pressure, so we’ll likely continue on the path of selling for a few more days.
The key is to analyze the next move the price makes when it touches the order block:
Here are 3 possible Scenarios.
Scenario 1. If the price reaches this zone ($563.60), it might dip a little further as a fake-out before bouncing back strongly. Here, we need to pay close attention to the candlestick pattern that appears in this area.
Scenario 2. If it respects the order block but doesn’t bounce with enough strength, we might be witnessing a Head and Shoulders pattern forming, which could later bring the price to the inflection zone (the blue middle area).
Scenario 3. If the price breaks my order block with strength and volume, then we’re validating a CHoCH (Change of Character), where we could see the price move to the inflection zone (the blue middle area).
No matter what happens, remember to always watch the candlestick pattern and the volume. That’s the main fuel behind the price's strength, and analyzing it this way will make your analysis more accurate.
Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE! Best regards.
SPY What Next? BUY!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the SPY next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 571.04
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bullish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 577.68
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 11-1 Update: Silver Still LeadingPlease watch this video to understand why I believe the downside risks are still dominant related to price trending.
Yes, we've seen a solid recovery today, but watching Silver and RSP, it appears the Excess Phase Peak pattern is still progressing toward a breakdown new low.
I urge all traders to stay very cautious of the risks throughout today and Monday.
The markets need to climb higher quite a bit to invalidate this pattern - and I don't see that happening before Nov 5.
Buckle up.
Get some.
Bulls and Bears zone for 11-01-2024Could yesterday's sell off be just like Halloween
surprise ?
Event though, S&P closed at its Low, but ETH session traders are trying to rally.
Level to watch: 5763 --- 5765
Reports to watch:
US ISM Manufacturing Index 10:00 AM EST
US Construction Spending 10:00 AM EST
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For Nov 1: CRUSH PatternToday's CRUSH pattern suggests the markets may experience a very large and violent price move - likely downward.
My experience with CRUSH patterns is they are often related to the dominant trend on the Daily chart and seeing as though we are in the midst of a fairly solid rally phase (recent higher highs on almost all charts), I believe this CRUSH pattern will resolve to the downside.
Many of you know I've been predicting a very strong pullback leading into the US elections, and yesterday, we saw what may have been the start of that pullback.
Today's CRUSH pattern could carry us into very strong market selling into the end of trading today and I believe traders should have already moved assets away from the current risks in the markets.
It seems as though almost every market I review has moved into an Excess Phase Peak pattern over the past 2-3+ days.
Today, I'm looking for Gold & Silver to attempt a breakdown away from the Phase #3 consolidation of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. BTCUSD is set up almost exactly the same - looking for a breakdown.
The SPY/QQQ are moving into that consolidation phase and looking for that breakdown in price.
It's almost as if the markets are reacting to some pending event that drives uncertainty.. THE ELECTION.
Smart traders (skilled intraday traders) should be able to pull off some really great trades throughout the day. Smart Swing traders are waiting for the base/bottom (Ultimate low) and are looking to move into CALL OPTION trades as a hedge related to a post-election rally phase.
If you missed all of this over the past few weeks, today is nothing more than a panic reaction to risks. The markets will settle after the election and will likely move back into a solid bullish price trend after Nov10th or so.
Buckle up - this could be a wild day.
Get Some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Trading Plan ES TODAYCurrent Position: Average entry price stands at 5741, ATM.
Trading Plan:
Targeting a push toward 5800, with plans to exit prior to the U.S. market open.
Although seller momentum appears depleted, I remain cautious about the likelihood of a sustained rally.
Intraday Strategy:
Hold a bullish outlook until the market open.
Anticipate a retracement toward yesterday’s close, at which point I intend to re-enter long positions.
Monitoring Approach: I will closely supervise the U.S. market open trades with heightened scrutiny compared to pre-market positioning.
$SPY tough spot right now, but there's still a glimmer of hope!On the daily chart, there are three bearish signals without even considering indicators:
1. Price is below the EMAs.
2. With a gap down.
3. From a coil spring.
On the weekly chart, the trend remains intact. However, if we drop below the fast EMA, a significant test will be the slow EMA.
The key level to watch is the low of the daily channel line at $554, which aligns with the weekly slow EMA at approximately $551. For me, that represents the definitive line in the sand for SPY.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 10-31: Halloween BreakdownThis short video discusses why traders need to prepare for a downward move and the eventual move into Phase #3 of the Excess Phase Peak pattern (consolidation).
I believe this consolidation phase will be very short-lived. So be aware of the continued risks to the downside.
This election has many traders concerned about pre-/post-market jitters. Bonds continue to put pressure on the debt markets, and Gold and silver are not contracting downward (as I suggested), reflecting a real panic-type trending mode.
Spend a bit of time watching my past videos. It is very impressive that you called this move 3+ weeks in advance, and I continue to believe we will see a base/bottom setup just after the election.
So, there is still a boatload of opportunities for skilled traders.
Buckle up - this move downward is likely to be very volatile.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold