Weekly S&P ProyectionSince the market did not correct as expected, this opens up the possibility for a new period of euphoria. As show in the graph this has happened before from the year 2020 to 2022. Price is typically considered to not follow a normal distribution, therefore using one to estimate if price is over extended has its flaws. This is because the true distribution of a security is a multinomial distribution, where price can either go up, down or stay equal.
The reason price behaves in such an odd manner is because price, has 2 unknown probabilities. Such probabilities can be calculated for the past, but not for the future. These are the probability of a price increase, and the probability of price staying the same, consequently the probability of price decreasing will be 1 minus the sum of the two previous probabilities. The value of such probabilities also fluctuates, and is determined by the market. When a market becomes overexcited, the probability of price increasing is closer to 1 than it's other counter probabilities. When this happens, a normal model no longer becomes suitable for estimating the limits of the distribution.
If one has a multinomial distribution, thought of as a graph with nodes in a shape of a 3D tree, where each node has a relationship with 3 subsequent nodes. Where each relationship carries one of the probabilities mentioned before (with no repetitions). Starting with 1 initial node, then 4 then 16 … previous+previous*3n. One is able to create a mental map of true, the price action distribution. From these, one could calculate new limits, by using bootstrapping.
However, since the computational power of such algorithm is complex, we can use the mean returns indicator to evaluate the trend and see that currently the trend is positive. This would mean that the probability of increasing is most likely also closer to one. If the mean returns were at 0 then the probability of price staying the same would be closer to one, and if it's below zero the same is true for a downtrend. Currently, the trend is positive, and not close to the theoretical limits of price action. This means that the probability of seeing a skewed distribution in the future are relatively high. However, if you still use a normal distribution to estimate the limits, then price is due for a correction. Only time will tell, as over excitement can move markets past their technical limits, and that is something that will always be a flaw in any technical approach to model price action.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Scinarios for $SPX till the election year ends Bearish daily candle on Friday 25th Oct but watching RSI signals its showing some support to the up-trend line from Aug low . This setup suggested continuation upward trend up to next week and election week then signal can be more clear!.
Above 5855 is bulish entry and below 8750 is bearish one.
6000 target still valid but i will recommend 5920 to take profit
for downplay 5640 is last support which is related to FED pivot cutting . good luck
SPY: Free Trading Signal
SPY
- Classic bearish setup
- Our team expects bearish continuation
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Short SPY
Entry Point - 598.24
Stop Loss - 606.81
Take Profit - 579.18
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
Hey SPYLOVERS ! Enjoy the Bull Ride !!!! Election Week and Interest Rate Cuts Did Not Disappoint Us at All
The truth is, it was a very difficult week to predict price movements. However, out of the two possible scenarios I shared last week, Scenario #1 was the winner, and it was the one I had the most confidence in!
At this moment, the price is in "no man's land," meaning there is no historical price data on the chart where we can find a level for the price to hold or replicate its movement. In this case, I believe that, from here on, the price will move based on upcoming economic news or as we approach the date when President-elect Donald Trump will officially become the President of the United States (POTUS).
Let's enjoy this bull run that is happening—these are important times for the country, and we need to take advantage of those swings!
Best regards, and thank you for supporting my analysis. See you next week!
SPY A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
Please, find my technical outlook for SPY below:
The price is coiling around a solid key level - 598.24
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Pivot Points High anticipates a potential price reversal.
Super trend shows a clear sell, giving a perfect indicators' convergence.
Goal - 583.97
Safe Stop Loss - 606.52
About Used Indicators:
The pivot point itself is simply the average of the high, low and closing prices from the previous trading day.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
How to PREDICT MARKETS! Tops and BottomsIn this video, I go over the following in great detail:
Predicting Markets with Williams %R, RSI, and MACD
Predicting market movements can be challenging, but combining the Williams %R, Relative Strength Index (RSI), and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) indicators can provide powerful insights for traders.
Williams %R measures the current closing price relative to the high-low range over a specific period, helping identify overbought or oversold conditions. RSI gauges the speed and change of price movements, also indicating overbought or oversold levels. MACD analyzes the relationship between two moving averages of a security's price, identifying potential buy or sell signals.
By using these three indicators together, traders can:
Confirm Trends: When all three indicators align, it strengthens the signal for a potential trend continuation or reversal.
Identify Entry and Exit Points: Overbought or oversold signals from these indicators can help pinpoint optimal entry and exit points.
Reduce False Signals: Combining multiple indicators can help filter out false signals, increasing the reliability of predictions.
Opening (IRA): SPY November 15th 501 Covered Call... for a 497.51 debit.
Comments: Re-upping at a strike that is a smidge higher than what I just took profit on, looking to eek out just a smidge more out of November without taking on a huge amount of additional risk ... .
Buying Power Effect/Break Even: 497.51
Max Profit: 3.49
ROC at Max: .70%
50% Max: 1.75
ROC at 50% Max: .35%
SUPER STOCKS 2023 notes & issues for POSiTiONiNG there are stocks driven by MARKET .. meaning float is out in the public
that normally has a DRUNK price action with gaps and erratic volume
there are issues with an assigned Specialist
that can TRADE or CROSS huge volume without moving the price or go beyond a range RANGE
highlighted ones have been decided by both the MARKET and the MARKET MAKER
best of both worlds where artificial price meets the wisdom of PUBLiC
Vanguard holds most or is the CUSTODY of most issues
Citadel & the gang of 3 manages the FLOAT
FUNDS are public
PUBLIC is barometer for entry or exit of Sovereign and Trust Fund babies on a 3 5 7 10 year cycle
determined by the FED's cost of printing borrowinng and lending
note:
Market Cap is dated June 22, 2022 ... Bottom are of MARKETS
Target Reached on GMETV Followers, TV has taken down and removed quite a few of my posts/videos due to my QR tag being embedded in them. I was then subsequently suspended for a few days. So, I wanted to come back and just update you on a few of those posts that were removed. GME was one of them. GME reached the W-pattern target and has entered a large liquidity block. I have decided to sell here a few days ago for some nice profit. My signal has not flashed red yet, but I wanted to capture those nice gainz while I had them.
I implemented my new indicator into my trading process in September of this year. Since that time we have not had a single loss recorded on our stock tracker! ZERO! None. All wins. Currently, we are in floating profit on all stock trades and killing it! Congrats to those who are following me in these trades.
Our average time in each stock trade is around 17 days. This is exactly where I want to be in order to give you all the time to enter the trades and exit as I post my signals.
To tell you the truth, we are doing much better than I imagined and are even beating our rate of profit on the crypto tracker! We have 12 exits for 12 wins, and the current trades will all exit in profit, equalling a 100% win rate over the last two months.
I knew I had stumbled across something remarkable when I accidentally found my indicator combo while studying the charts. I am super excited about what the future holds for all of us!
Today, I have raised the stops on all of my stock entries. I feel we may be starting to get a bit over-heated. I want to capture those profits while I have them.
Best,
Stew
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-8 : Counter-trend RallyHappy Friday everyone,
Today's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Rally in Counter-trend mode.
I interpret this as a moderate downward price trend for the SPY - possibly pulling the SPY into the GAP created after yesterday's opening GAP rally.
I got into deep detail related to the potential anomaly event setting up over the next three weeks for the SPY & QQQ in this video.
I also go into a fairly deep analysis of Gold and Silver - relating my expectations and how these moves align cleanly with an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern.
And, I even go into broad detail for BTCUSD and how I see multiple aligned Excess Phase Peak Patterns setting up to drive big trends over the next 3-4 weeks.
As I stated near the end of this video, the next 5-7+ years are going to be filled with opportunity. I suggest everyone get ready for the biggest opportunity of your life.
I hope you enjoy my videos and research. I know some of you have already experienced tremendous success following my research.
I'm urging to you consider the opportunity that will be available as the markets continue to trend through my window of opportunity - and how you want to try to profit from these moves.
Remember, the markets will always be there - but these opportunities are unique to the next 5-7+ years.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Can AMD hit 240 USD in Q1 2025? 100% BUY/HOLD for the bulls.🔸Time to update the AMD trade setup, this is a speculative bull flag
with pole setup in progress, with 100% upside potential.
🔸AMD massively trailing behind NVDA entire year in 2024, expecting
AMD to catch up next few months. Currently price action compressing
withing bull flag, based on measured move projection expecting price
target is 240 USD, so this 100% upside from the entry price for the bulls.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback to complete near 120 USD in December going into holiday seasons, limited downside beyond 120 USD. BUY/HOLD near 120 TP bulls is 240 USD, which is 100% upside. Expecting target to get hit in Q1 2025. good luck traders.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside.
comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this.
current market cycle: bull wedge
key levels: 5720 - 6013
bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside.
Invalidation is below 5720.
bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first.
Invalidation is above 6050.
short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess.
Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
Fibonacci/Gann & 3-6-9 Chart Play: The TOP may be IN I was trying to identify if/how the market may be topping in relation to the post-election rally phase and started with a blank Daily SPY chart.
After drawing a few line of the chart, I started with an idea that Broad market pullbacks may be the key to identifying/timing market expansion phases (coupled with a bit of logic).
This video highlights this theory going back to 2018 and examines a number of price pullback trends as well as Fibonacci Timing structures related to Fibonacci Price Expansion blocks.
I think you will find this very useful as I continue to delve deeper into the 3-6-9 structure, polarity shifts (binary shifts) and trying to unlock the secrets of price trends/extensions.
Hope you enjoy...
Oh.. and it looks like the US markets are about to top if my research is correct.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-7 : Rally Pattern DayGood morning,
Although I would argue the post-election rally may already be moving into exhaustion, the SPY Cycle Patterns suggest today is a Rally pattern in Trending mode. So, I expect the markets to attempt a bit of a carryover rally phase today - moving into a Counter-trend Rally pattern tomorrow.
That counter-trend rally pattern suggests the markets will try to find a peak/top and roll downward into the close of the week.
Gold and Silver appear to be basing with a potential for another move downward today - retesting recent lows. Based on my estimate related to Fibonacci Time Cycles, I believe Metals is looking for a momentum base to rally off of. Thus, I suggest traders prepare for a big move upward in Gold and Silver over the next 4 to 7+ trading days.
Bitcoin is still in a Bullish trending phase after breaking into new highs. Today, I spent quite a bit of time going over the Excess Phase Peak pattern related to how the price is trending and what to expect.
It is critical to understand that the markets will move away from this post-election relief rally phase over the next week or so. Ultimately, what has changed is that we have a new POTUS with new policies and objectives in 2025. Right now, everything is still pretty much the same as it was last week.
Volatility is still high and I urge traders to stay cautious. The time for adding more liquidity will come after November 25-30.
Remember, the number 1 rule for traders is to Protect Capital. You can still trade, just trade much smaller allocation levels for now.
We are about to move into a period of moderate consolidation. Sit back and wait out this sideways trend. The real opportunity will come after November 25-30.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
$SPY up to $614 as final blow off top move?I initially thought we'd see a move down of 5%-10% pre election. I played the move through AMEX:UVXY calls.
We didn't end up seeing the full move play out that I had expected, but was able to capitalize on the move down yesterday when AMEX:UVXY was above $30. I sold all my calls yesterday as I expected downside to only be possible prior to Nov 1. So far, it's looking like that was a good call as we're starting to see a bounce today.
Now that we've in November, I expect a bullish move to play out through the election and after for a final blow off top.
I think it's likely that we see a move to $614 over the next two weeks.
I'll be buying $600C today for 11/15 to try to capitalize on this move higher.
Let's see if it plays out.
Accelerating Ahead: Is Now the Time to Invest or Should You WaitOverview: Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA)
Current Price: $288.53 (as of November 7, 2024)
Sector/Industry: Consumer Discretionary / Automobiles
Tesla has been on a remarkable upward trajectory, reaching new highs. Investors are now contemplating: Is it prudent to enter at current levels, or should one wait for a potential pullback to optimize the risk/reward profile?
Key Levels and Price History
52-Week Range: $180.00 - $288.53
One-Month Range: $250.00 - $288.53
Support Level: $270.00
Resistance Level: $300.00
Upcoming Dates to Watch
Next Earnings Date: January 25, 2025
Dividend Payment Date: N/A (Tesla does not currently pay dividends)
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A
Valuation and Metrics
P/E Ratio: 68.84 (above industry average)
Free Cash Flow:
Recent Quarter: $2.5 billion
TTM: $10 billion
Dividend Yield: N/A
Institutional Holdings: 55%
Short Interest: 3% of float
Recent Price Action & Technical Indicators
Weekly Trend: +5%
Monthly Trend: +10%
RSI: 65 (approaching overbought territory)
Moving Averages:
50-Day: $260.00
200-Day: $220.00
MACD: Positive divergence, indicating upward momentum
The RSI nearing overbought levels suggests caution, as a pullback may be imminent.
Comparative Valuation
P/E Ratio (TSLA): 68.84 vs. Industry Average: 20.00
P/B Ratio (TSLA): 15.00 vs. Industry Average: 3.00
EV/EBITDA (TSLA): 40.00 vs. Industry Average: 10.00
Tesla's premium valuation underscores its growth potential but also indicates higher risk if market sentiment shifts.
Growth & Financial Health
Revenue Growth (3-Year CAGR): 30%
Projected Revenue Growth (Next 2 Years): 25% annually
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.5 (moderate leverage)
Cash Reserves: $20 billion
Current Ratio: 1.8
Notable News & Social Sentiment
News Highlight: November 6, 2024 – Tesla announced a strategic partnership with a leading battery manufacturer, boosting investor confidence.
Social Buzz: Positive discussions on platforms like Twitter and Reddit, with investors optimistic about Tesla's future prospects.
Competitive Comparison
Ford Motor Company (F): $10.55, P/E 15.00, Revenue Growth 5%
General Motors Company (GM): $45.20, P/E 10.00, Revenue Growth 3%
Investment Analysis: Entry Now or Wait for a Pullback?
1. Entry at $288.53 (Current Price)
Target Price (TP): $320.00
Potential Upside: $320.00 - $288.53 = $31.47
Percentage Gain: ~10.90%
Stop Loss (SL): $270.00
Potential Downside: $288.53 - $270.00 = $18.53
Percentage Loss: ~6.42%
Risk/Reward Ratio: 10.90% (reward) / 6.42% (risk) ≈ 1.70
Entering at $288.53 offers a moderate risk/reward ratio, with potential gains outweighing potential losses. However, the proximity to overbought RSI levels suggests a cautious approach.
2. Entry at $270.00 (Wait for Pullback)
Target Price (TP): $320.00
Potential Upside: $320.00 - $270.00 = $50.00
Percentage Gain: ~18.52%
Stop Loss (SL): $250.00
Potential Downside: $270.00 - $250.00 = $20.00
Percentage Loss: ~7.41%
Risk/Reward Ratio: 18.52% (reward) / 7.41% (risk) ≈ 2.50
Waiting for a pullback to $270.00 provides a more favorable risk/reward ratio, offering greater potential gains relative to potential losses. This strategy aligns with a more conservative investment approach.
Price Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic: $320.00 (assuming continued bullish momentum)
Neutral: $300.00 (aligning with current resistance levels)
Pessimistic: $250.00 (testing lower support levels)
Conclusion
Tesla's recent performance reflects strong growth and positive market sentiment.
Aggressive Entry (Today's Price, $288.53): Offers potential for short-term gains but carries higher risk due to near overbought conditions.
Conservative Entry (Pullback to $270.00): Provides a better risk/reward balance, ideal for those seeking a more cautious approach.
Verdict: While both strategies have merit, waiting for a pullback to $270.00 offers a more balanced entry point, allowing investors to capitalize on Tesla's growth potential with reduced risk.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Use this information at your own risk; I am not responsible for any outcomes that do not align with expectations.
Navigating the Surge: Entry Now or Await a Pullback ?Overview: NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Current Price: $146.43 (as of November 7, 2024)
Sector/Industry: Technology / Semiconductors
NVIDIA has experienced a significant surge, reaching new highs. Investors are now contemplating: Is it prudent to enter at current levels, or should one wait for a potential pullback to optimize the risk/reward profile?
Key Levels and Price History
52-Week Range: $108.13 - $146.43
One-Month Range: $130.25 - $146.43
Support Level: $135.00
Resistance Level: $150.00
Upcoming Dates to Watch
Next Earnings Date: December 15, 2024
Dividend Payment Date: December 20, 2024
Ex-Dividend Date: December 5, 2024
Valuation and Metrics
P/E Ratio: 65.55 (above industry average)
Free Cash Flow:
Recent Quarter: $1.5 billion
TTM: $6 billion
Dividend Yield: 0.02%
Institutional Holdings: 70%
Short Interest: 3% of float
Recent Price Action & Technical Indicators
Weekly Trend: +5%
Monthly Trend: +10%
RSI: 68 (approaching overbought territory)
Moving Averages:
50-Day: $140.00
200-Day: $125.00
MACD: Positive divergence, indicating upward momentum
The RSI nearing overbought levels suggests caution, as a pullback may be imminent.
Comparative Valuation
P/E Ratio (NVDA): 65.55 vs. Industry Average: 30.00
P/B Ratio (NVDA): 20.00 vs. Industry Average: 8.00
EV/EBITDA (NVDA): 40.00 vs. Industry Average: 15.00
NVIDIA's premium valuation underscores its growth potential but also indicates higher risk if market sentiment shifts.
Growth & Financial Health
Revenue Growth (3-Year CAGR): 25%
Projected Revenue Growth (Next 2 Years): 20% annually
Debt-to-Equity Ratio: 0.3 (moderate leverage)
Cash Reserves: $10 billion
Current Ratio: 2.5
Notable News & Social Sentiment
News Highlight: November 6, 2024 – NVIDIA announced a strategic partnership with a leading cloud provider, boosting investor confidence.
Social Buzz: Positive discussions on platforms like Twitter and Reddit, with investors optimistic about NVIDIA's future prospects.
Competitive Comparison
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (AMD): $145.07, P/E 40.00, Revenue Growth 30%
Intel Corporation (INTC): $24.95, P/E 15.00, Revenue Growth 5%
Investment Analysis: Entry Now or Wait for a Pullback?
1. Entry at $146.43 (Current Price)
Target Price (TP): $160.00
Potential Upside: $160.00 - $146.43 = $13.57
Percentage Gain: ~9.27%
Stop Loss (SL): $135.00
Potential Downside: $146.43 - $135.00 = $11.43
Percentage Loss: ~7.80%
Risk/Reward Ratio: 9.27% (reward) / 7.80% (risk) ≈ 1.19
Entering at $146.43 offers a moderate risk/reward ratio, with potential gains slightly outweighing potential losses. However, the proximity to overbought RSI levels suggests a cautious approach.
2. Entry at $135.00 (Wait for Pullback)
Target Price (TP): $160.00
Potential Upside: $160.00 - $135.00 = $25.00
Percentage Gain: ~18.52%
Stop Loss (SL): $125.00
Potential Downside: $135.00 - $125.00 = $10.00
Percentage Loss: ~7.41%
Risk/Reward Ratio: 18.52% (reward) / 7.41% (risk) ≈ 2.50
Waiting for a pullback to $135.00 provides a more favorable risk/reward ratio, offering greater potential gains relative to potential losses. This strategy aligns with a more conservative investment approach.
Price Forecast Scenarios
Optimistic: $160.00 (assuming continued bullish momentum)
Neutral: $150.00 (aligning with current resistance levels)
Pessimistic: $125.00 (testing lower support levels)
Conclusion
NVIDIA's recent performance reflects strong growth and positive market sentiment.
Aggressive Entry (Today's Price, $146.43): Offers potential for short-term gains but carries higher risk due to near overbought conditions.
Conservative Entry (Pullback to $135.00): Provides a better risk/reward balance, ideal for those seeking a more cautious approach.
Verdict: While both strategies have merit, waiting for a pullback to $135.00 offers a more balanced entry point, allowing investors to capitalize on NVIDIA's growth potential with reduced risk.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investing in stocks involves risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Use this information at your own risk; I am not responsible for any outcomes that do not align with expectations.
75% gains TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD🔸Hello traders, today let's review 12hour price chart for TSLA.
Recently we gapped up on higher volume, we got two liquidity
gaps below market overall this indicates strength, having said
that there is heavy fresh overhead supply zone so expecting pullback.
🔸Fresh supply zones at 400/375/305 usd will provide liquidit for
a potential pullback in TSLA. fresh demand zones located below market
at 230/235 usd and 190 usd. most likely limited downside below fresh
liqudity at 230/235 usd.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting measured move pullback
once we trigger fresh supply zone near 300/305 usd, bulls should
wait for the pullback to trigger fredh demand/liquidity zone at/near
230/235 USD. BUY/HOLD after pullback TP1 375 USD TP2 400 USD.
75% gains potential for patient traders. good luck!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.