$SPY obvious? Can we believe it?All from standpoint’s of chart, politics, consumerism, fear, uncertainty, and ego, this shows all signs to $455-$470, right? It would only be a 23% decline off the highs which were trading 6 weeks ago, lol.
WSL.
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Combined US Indexes - Lower High Lower Low checked; What next...As previously expected, a lower low has been achieved.
What was not expected was the speed, magnitude and extent of the fallout.
Next up, since it is about 3.5 Standard Deviations out, we can start looking for a consolidation, although there might be slightly more downside and we need a higher low in the expected range within box. Having said that, it is possible to see it overextend downwards briefly.
There is a long term support, Fibonacci downside target zone just below.
So expecting a short term bounce between Monday to Wednesday at the earliest, and following that a consolidation area formation.
Geopolitics, Rates, and Risk: Why 1987 Is Back on the RadarThe current mix of geopolitical tensions, policy uncertainty, and fragile market sentiment brings to mind the setup ahead of October '87.
Without stabilizing signal, especially from the U.S. administration this weekend, the risk of a sharp correction is not negligible.
SPY: Breaking Levels; TASPY broke down the Weekly demand line and now looking to break the Monthly demand.
Looking to possibly test the bottome weekly trendline.
Possibly a 530 price target and if weakness continues, possibly below more to 520 then 510.46 to fully retest that bottom trendline.
The market has bene crazy, people calling bottom, wanting to catch the reversal. I mean, I would want to catch this “V” up too, but have to see if it keeps trending down to the bottom trendline.
LMK what you think and if you have any TA, tag me!
*Not FA
Post-Liberation Day Sell-Off – Crash or Correction?Liberation Day has turned into a dramatic "blow the markets back out" day for the SPY , with a significant daily drop of nearly 6%, slicing decisively below the critical 200-day moving average at $574.46. Historically, breaking below the 200-day MA is a strong bearish signal, indicating potential further downside momentum.
The previously identified key bearish pivot, the "Best Price Short" at $565.16, served as a crucial resistance level from which sellers aggressively stepped in, intensifying today's sell-off. Given the current bearish sentiment, the next immediate downside targets without a significant bounce (dead-cat bounce) include:
Half 1 Short (Momentum target): $505.28 (already tested)
High Vol Momentum Target 1a: $497.66
Half 2 Short (secondary bearish momentum): $486.41
Extended Momentum Target (HH Vol Momo Target 2a): $475.16
For traders who missed the initial move, look to re-enter shorts if there's a modest retracement toward the previously broken "Weeks High Short" at $520.16, maintaining tight risk control with stops ideally set just above the "Best Price Short" ($565.16).
Critical levels summary:
Ideal Short Re-entry Zone: $520.16
Profit Targets: $497.66, $486.41, and ultimate $475.16
Stop Loss Area: Slightly above $565.16
Major Broken Support (Resistance now): 200-day MA at $574.46
Today's significant volume spike further reinforces bearish conviction. RSI is deeply oversold at 23.24, suggesting caution for potential short-term bounce, but any bounce is likely to be short-lived unless there's a substantial political or economic pivot soon.
These levels are algorithmically defined, designed to remove emotions from trading. Trade responsibly, adhere to your strategy, and protect your capital.
04/04 aka Doomsday Daily Trade RecapEOD accountability report: +$725
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: rly bad
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:49 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
11:00 AM VXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal (triple buy signal)
1:02 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal,
1:25 PM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal,
Another wild day, market went extremely bearish and has been rejecting the 1 min resistance and playing out as expected.
S&P 500 to tank to 5,100 pointsPEPPERSTONE:US500
The S&P 500 broke below critical support after Trump announce massive tariffs on everyone, worst than expected. Volume is increasing to the downside, and it looks like the next wave down has already started.
Wave C is supposed to be equal or larger than wave A, and reach the next critical support, which will lead us to 5,100 points in the next couple of weeks.
I heard that net tariffs on China are 54%, does than means that iPhones are going to rise in price 54%?
Maybe it will be reconsidered later, and the market will bounce in the future, but not likely in the short term.
Good luck to you
Tariff FUD is reking ports. SPY 505 First Stop. 460 Second.Trading Fam,
It's no surprise that Trump's implementation of high tariffs would cause initial FUD. This can be observed in the massive spikes on the $VIX. What is unknown and has caught many traders by surprise, myself included, is how substantial of a drop would be incurred by investor uncertainty.
Initially, it did appear that 500 might hold. That was a huge support. I knew if it broke, the sell-off would be deep. But I held hope that the market would hold above this trendline. It did not. So, yesterday and today, investors who held are incurring substantial losses.
For those who were smarter than me and sold at or near the top, congratulations! You've saved yourself some duress and cash. Now, some are calling this the beginning of a longer bear market. I still don't see it that way. Honestly (and I know this will be hard to believe), I still see the SPY hitting my target #3 at 670-700 before 2026 comes to an end. Longer-term we still remain in a massive secular bull market since 2009 and to break this long-term trend, the SPY would actually have to break below 300. That is a long way down and I just don't see that happening, though as always, I definitely could be wrong.
Shorter-term I am seeing two prominent areas of support. The first has almost been reached at 505. If I would have played this correctly, I'd be DCA'ing in my first load of cash here. The second area of support is at around 460 and slightly rising daily. This would be where I DCA'ed in another load of cash. However, if that broke, I'd exit immediately and reassess the charts. 300 is a long way down, but over the past 5 years we have seen some extraordinary market price action and volatility. TBH, even the best of us technicians are struggling to understand the larger macro-economic picture, but I'd wager to say that tariff fears may be overexaggerated as market reactions often tend to be.
One interesting note is that crypto price action no longer seems to correlate and prices have help up surprisingly well. Could this be our first indicator that the markets are due to turn up again in a few weeks/months? Unknown. But I can promise you I'll be watching this all closely.
✌️Stew
Markets hate tariffs but traders love discounts
SPX500 is down over 12.2% YTD
Volatility Index (VIX) is above 40 — elevated fear in the market
SPX support zone likely around 4,888
Historical patterns show strong rebounds near similar volatility spikes
This could be a prime entry point — keep your cash ready
With tariffs back in play, volatility could spike — stay ready for discounted entries
If you own a pair or NIKE! then this is your time #Shareholder Confessions from the Desk: Kim K Didn’t Move Nike, But Let’s Be Real…
So, it turns out Kim K’s magic touch didn’t send Nike stock into orbit. Shocking, I know. Apparently, even the queen of shapewear can’t single-handedly inflate a multi-billion-dollar company’s share price.
But let’s take a step back—because at this price, Nike is looking very interesting.
Forget the short-term noise. Nike is still the #1 IT gear for young adults and Generation Chic. You know, the people actually setting trends and spending money:
#Rappers – Because what’s a flex without fresh kicks?
#Tech bros – Coded an app? Great. Now go drop $200 on some sneakers.
#Creatives – The artists, designers, and influencers making sure you think about buying Nikes even when you’re not.
At the end of the day, Nike isn’t just a brand—it’s a lifestyle, a uniform, a status symbol. Stocks go up and down, but when it comes to culture, Nike runs the game.
So yeah, maybe the Kim K collab didn’t ignite a moonshot. But give it time. The streets, the startups, and the studios are still rocking the Swoosh. And that’s why I’m watching.
+10% from tomorrow till mid-MaySPX is getting ready to rebound with around 10% till mid-May. Invalidated if breaks below 5400.
Using Fibonacci/Measured Moves To Understand Price TargetThis video is really an answer to a question from a subscriber.
Can the SPY/QQQ move downward to touch COVID levels (pre-COVID High or COVID Low).
The answer is YES, it could move down far enough to touch the pre-COVID highs or COVID lows, but that would represent a very big BREAKDOWN of Fibonacci/ElliotWave price structure.
In other words, a breakdown of that magnitude would mean the markets have moved into a decidedly BEARISH trend and have broken the opportunity to potentially move substantially higher in 2025-2026 and beyond (at least for a while).
Price structure if very important to understand.
Measured moves happen all the time. They are part of Fibonacci Price Theory, Elliot Wave, and many of my proprietary price patterns.
Think of Measured Moves like waves on a beach. There are bigger waves, middle waves, smaller waves, and minute waves. They are all waves. But their size, magnitude, strength vary.
That is kind of what we are trying to measure using Fibonacci and Measured Move structures.
Watch this video. Tell me if you can see how these Measured Moves work and how to apply Fibonacci structure to them.
This is really the BASICS of price structure.
Get Some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-4 : Breakaway PatternToday is a very interesting day because my MRM investment model turned BEARISH on the Daily chart. That means we have broken through major support because of this tariff war and the markets are not OFFICIALLY (based on my models) into a Daily BEARISH trend (or a Daily Broad Pullback Phase).
What that means is we need to start thinking of the markets as OVERALL BEARISH and trying to identify support - or a base/bottom in the near future.
This is no longer a BULLISH market - everything seems to have flipped into a BEARISH primary trend (OFFICIALLY).
So, watch this video to understand how Fibonacci price levels will likely play out as the SPY targeting the 500-505 level (possibly lower) and where the same Fibonacci price levels will prompt the QQQ to target 395-400.
BUCKLE UP. This is a BIG CHANGE related to overall market trend.
Gold is holding up much better than Silver. But I still believe this is a PANIC selling phase in Gold/Silver and they will both base/recovery and RALLY much higher.
The funny thing about the cycles in Gold/Silver is this:
In 2007-08, just after the major expansion phase completed, the Global Financial Crisis hit - prompting a large downward price rotation in metals.
Maybe, just maybe, this forced tariff war issue is a disruption that will "speed up" the process of metals rallying above $5000++ over the next 60+ days.
I see this move as PHASES and it appears the tariff disruption may prompt a faster Phase-Shift for metals over the next few months. We'll see.
BTCUSD seems to be in SHOCK. It's really going nowhere on very low volume.
If BTCUSD is a true hedge or alternate store of value - I would think it would have an upward reaction to this selling.
We'll see how this plays out.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver
S&P 500 correction before the global fall.S&P 500 correction before the global fall of the usa stock market.
Hey traders! I’m sure many of you have noticed that after the introduction of retaliatory tariffs, the markets started getting pretty choppy.
The S&P 500 took a serious dive.
• On the weekly chart, I’ve marked a support level + the 161.8% Fibonacci level, where we might see a bounce back to the $5680–$5800 range.
• But from there, I think we could see the start of a major crash—both in equities and crypto—that could last 1–2 years.
• Based on my estimates, the S&P 500 could drop back to 2020–2021 levels, a wide range of 2200–3000.
• For Bitcoin, we’re talking around $5000; for Ethereum, $100–$300; and for Solana, $2–$12.
3D Chart:
3W Chart:
Real-world events that could tank the stock market this hard:
Global Recession: If major economies (US, China, EU) slide into a recession at the same time—think trade wars, rampant inflation, or a debt crisis—investors will dump risky assets like hot potatoes.
Trade War Escalation: Harsher tariffs between the US and China/EU could wreck supply chains, crush corporate earnings, and spark a full-on market panic.
Geopolitical Conflict: A big blow-up—like a full-scale war or crisis (say, Taiwan or the Middle East)—could send capital fleeing to safe havens (gold, bonds), while stocks and crypto get slaughtered.
Collapse of a Major Financial Player: If a big bank or hedge fund goes bust (Lehman Brothers 2.0-style) due to an overheated market or bad debt, it could trigger a domino effect.
Energy Crisis: A spike in oil/gas prices (from sanctions or conflicts, for example) could kneecap the economy and drag risk assets down with it.
Market Bubble Burst: If the current rally turns out to be a massive bubble (and plenty of folks think it is), its pop could pull indexes down all on its own.
Looming Wars: A potential Russia-Europe war starting as early as 2025, or an Iran-Israel conflict that drags in multiple nations, could destabilize global markets, spike energy prices, and send investors running for the exits.
Combined US Indexes - Lower High checked; Lower Low next...As expected from previous analysis, there is a lower high likely as the TD Sell Setup is Perfected. This just missed the target but has the TD Bear Trend intact
Following, a Bearish Engulfing pattern plus a Gap Down occurred yesterday.
Breaking back into Extension Zone box... and likely to protrude out the other side.
MACD is turning down in the bearish zone too.
So, looking for a lower low now...
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 4, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 March Employment Report Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March employment report, with forecasts predicting an addition of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. This data will provide insights into the labor market's health and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy.
🇺🇸💬 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Address: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 11:25 AM ET. Investors will be closely monitoring his remarks for any indications regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of recent market volatility.
🇺🇸📈 Market Reaction to 'Liberation Day' Tariffs: Following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day" tariffs, the markets experienced significant declines. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6%, marking the worst trading day since 2020. Investors are bracing for continued volatility as the market digests the potential economic impacts of these tariffs.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, April 4:
👷♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +140,000
Previous: +151,000
Indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.1%
Previous: 4.1%
Represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3%
Previous: +0.3%
Measures the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
A few scenarios for the SPY! 🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
Trump Goes 'Cynosure' of All Eyes as He Walked Into '1930' RoomThe Striking Parallels Between Trump's 2025 Tariffs and the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930
The recent trade policies under President Trump's second administration bear remarkable similarities to the controversial Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, both in approach and potential consequences. These parallels offer important historical lessons about protectionist trade policies.
Protectionist Foundations and Scope
Both trade initiatives share fundamentally protectionist motivations aimed at shielding American industries from foreign competition. The Smoot-Hawley Act increased import duties by approximately 20% with the initial goal of protecting struggling U.S. farmers from European agricultural imports. Similarly, Trump's 2025 trade agenda explicitly aims at "backing the United States away from integration with the global economy and steering the country toward becoming more self-contained".
What began as targeted protections in both eras quickly expanded in scope. While Smoot-Hawley initially focused on agricultural protections, industry lobbyists soon demanded similar protections for their sectors. Trump's tariffs have followed a comparable pattern, beginning with specific sectors but rapidly expanding to affect a broad range of imports, with projected tariffs exceeding $1.4 trillion by April 2025—nearly four times the $380 billion imposed during his first administration.
Specific Tariff Examples
The parallel implementation approaches are notable:
Trump imposed a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum products effective March 12, 2025
Trump raised tariffs on all Chinese imports to 20% on March 4, 2025
Trump imposed 25% tariffs on most Canadian and Mexican goods
Smoot-Hawley increased overall import duties by approximately 20%
Smoot-Hawley raised the average import tax on foreign goods to about 40% (following the Fordney-McCumber Act of 1922)
Global Retaliation and Economic Consequences
Perhaps the most striking similarity is the international backlash. The Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered retaliatory measures from over 25 countries, dramatically reducing global trade and worsening the Great Depression. Trump's 2025 tariffs have already prompted counter-tariffs from major trading partners:
China responded with 15% tariffs on U.S. coal and liquefied natural gas, and 10% on oil and agricultural machines
Canada implemented 25% tariffs on approximately CA$30 billion of U.S. goods
The European Union announced tariffs on €4.5 billion of U.S. consumer goods and €18 billion of U.S. steel and agricultural products
Expert Opposition
Both policies faced significant opposition from economic experts. More than 1,000 economists urged President Hoover to veto the Smoot-Hawley Act.
Trump's 2025 tariffs? Reaction is coming yet...
Potential Economic Impact
The historical record suggests caution. The Smoot-Hawley Act is "now widely blamed for worsening the severity of the Great Depression in the U.S. and around the world". Trump's "more audacious intervention" similarly carries "potentially seismic consequences for jobs, prices, diplomatic relations and the global trading system".
These striking parallels between trade policies nearly a century apart demonstrate that economic nationalism and retaliatory trade cycles remain persistent challenges in international commerce, with historical lessons that remain relevant today.
Stock market Impact
Just watch the graph..
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Best wishes,
Your Beloved @PandorraResearch Team 😎
April 3rd Daily Trade Recap EOD accountability report: +$161.25
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: not good at all.
**Daily Trade Recap based on VX Algo System **
9:42 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
10:30 AM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
11:11 AM VXAlgo ES 10M Buy signal (double signal)
12:04 pm Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
1:31pm Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
1:40 PMVXAlgo NQ 10M Buy Signal double signal
Another wild day, market went extremely bearish and has been rejecting the 5 min resistance and playing out as expected.
Welcome to the real world Uncle Sam!The market can withstand a lot of pressure.
It can handle:
the dawn of "fake news" and outright "lying"
the pollution and "enshitification" of social media
imperialist ideas of a Gaza takeover
partnering with a Russian totalitarian state
overhyping of AI and Nvidia's overpricing
populist politics
unworldly valuations of tech stocks
What it cannot handle is:
Upsetting the world order
Undermining of NATO, Europe, and allies
Starting trade wars with your best friends
Establishing tariffs which will harm the US economy
I love the US stock market, and US animal spirits, it's the best in the world.
But when risk rises, then secure investments like bonds/treasuries become the smart money move. Stocks become "risk off"
Risk is rising, tariffs will pressure inflation, inflation kills economies and markets.
The European defense industry will benefit, the US consumer will pay higher prices.
Higher risk, could mean a lack of confidence, and confidence powers the stock market.
Batton Down the Hatches.
Trading Note: I sold all my US holdings on Tuesday, at the break of the double top neckline (see chart).
My target price is the 2021 high, before the one-year bear market. Its a big drop, I give it a 60-70% chance.
RSI & ROC Negative Medium-term divergences
Of course this could all change if Trump backtracks on trade wars, tariffs and imperialist rhetoric.
But until then, enjoy the ride.
Opportunity Beneath the Fear: SPY's Reversal SetupIn the Shadow of Headlines: SPY’s Drop Could Be 2025’s Big Opportunity
As markets react sharply to renewed tariff fears and Trump-related headlines, SPY continues its descent. Panic is setting in—but behind the noise, a strategic opportunity may be quietly forming.
While many rush to exit, others are beginning to position for the bounce. A well-structured entry strategy could be key to turning uncertainty into gains.
Entry Zone (Staggered):
🔹 543: First watch level—look for signs of slowing momentum.
🔹 515: Deeper entry point as the selloff extends.
🔹 <500 (TBD): Stay flexible—if panic accelerates, this could mark a generational setup.
Profit Targets:
✅ 570: Initial rebound target.
✅ 590: Mid-range level if recovery builds.
✅ 610+: Full recovery potential—rewarding those with patience and vision.
Remember: Headlines fade, but price action and preparation stay. This selloff may continue—but it might also be laying the foundation for 2025’s most powerful move. The key? Enter with discipline, protect your capital, and let the market come to you.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading carries significant risk. Always conduct your own research and use proper risk management.
NYA THE ONLY BULLISH WAVE COUNT 4th WAVE TRIANGLE on NEWSThe chart posted is that of the NYSE NYA this is the only Elliot wave Structure that is BULLISH I have now moved into calls in the SPY 540 and QQQ calls 450 dec 2026 . This is a HIGH RISK TRADE BUT I AM WILLING TO TAKE A 25 % position the sp cash was at 5415and qqq were at BEST at 452 put call above 1 and vix above 28.5 the fear greed was at 9 best of trades WAVETIMER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-3 : GAP Breakaway PatternFirst off, thank you for all the great comments and accolades related to my calling this breakdown (nearly 60+ days ago).
Did I get lucky having these new tariffs announced, causing the markets to break downward? Probably.
Did my research suggest the markets were going to break downward anyway? YES.
Did my research predict these tariffs? NO.
My research is specifically price-based. You'll notice I don't use many indicators, other than my proprietary price pressure and momentum indicators.
The purpose of what I'm trying to teach all of you is that price is the ultimate indicator. You can use other indicators if you find them helpful. But, you should focus on the price chart and try to learn as much as you can from the price chart (without any indicators).
Why, because I believe price tells us everything we need to know and we can react to price more efficiently than getting confused by various technical indicators.
At least, that is what I've found to be true.
Today's pattern suggests more selling is likely. After the markets open, I suggest there will be a bunch of longs that will quickly be exited and shorts that will be exited (pulling profits). Thus, I believe the first 30-60 minutes of trading could be extremely volatile.
My extended research suggests the markets will continue to try to move downward (over the next 60+ days) attempting to find the Ultimate Low. But, at this point, profits are profits and we all need to BOOK THEM if we have them.
We can always reposition for the next breakdown trade when the timing is right.
Gold and Silver are moving into a PANIC selling phase. This should be expected after the big tariff news. Metals will recover over the next 3-5+ days. Get ready.
BTCUSD is really not moving on this news. Kinda odd. Where is BTCUSD as a hedge or alternate store of value? I don't see it happening in price.
What I do see is that BTCUSD is somewhat isolated from this tariff news and somewhat isolated from the global economy. It's almost as if BTCUSD exists on another planet - away from global economic factors.
Still, I believe BTCUSD will continue to consolidate, attempting to break downward over the next 30+ days.
Remember, trading is about BOOKING PROFITS and moving onto the next trade. That is what we all need to focus on today.
Get Some.
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