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SPY (S&P500) - Price Testing Support Trendline - Daily ChartSPY (S&P500 ETF) price has just closed below $600 and is currently under a support trendline. If price cannot breakout above the $600 and $605 resistance level this month, a pullback could occur down to the support zone. SPY price could potentially pullback to various levels of support due to: -USA domestic conflict -International military conflicts -Technical chart bearish divergence -USA federal reserve interest rate news -Government and corporate news Support Levels: $595, $590, $585, $580. Resistance Levels: $600, $605, $610, $615. The 50EMA/200EMA Golden Cross is still on-going, and support prices of $580 and $568 have yet to be tested significantly.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Attempting Breakout Above ResistanceSPY (S&P500 ETF) price is attempting to breakout above Daily resistance levels of $594 and $597. SPY ETF has been in an uptrend since May 2025. A Golden Cross also occured on May 19th 2025, signaling that a potential longer term bullish rally could occur. Friday's candle closed as a Doji signaling some potential indecision after recent price volatility. SPY price is not at any extreme level on the Daily chart. If SPY price ever gaps up and rallies up to the $612 to $620 resistance zone, price could sell off stronger (short-term). In June 2025, trade deal and inflation news will most likely be the catalyst for further volatility, in addition to government news announcements.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06📈 SPY Swing Trade Plan – 2025-06-06 Bias: Moderately Bullish Timeframe: 3–4 weeks Catalysts: Strong institutional flows, trade talk optimism, solid jobs report Trade Type: Long equity position 🧠 Model Summary Table Model Bias Entry Stop Loss Take Profit Holding Period Confidence DS Moderately Bullish $600.02 $595.54 $618.02 3 weeks 65% LM Moderately Bullish $598.50 $586.70 $616–618 3–4 weeks 75% GK Strongly Bullish $600.02 $592.00 $610.00 4 weeks 72% GM Moderately Bullish ~$600.50 $587.50 $627.50 3–4 weeks 70% CD Moderately Bullish $600–600.50 $585.00 $620 / $635 3–4 weeks 72% ✅ Consensus: SPY is in a bullish trend across timeframes ⚠️ Disagreements: MACD momentum and entry/pullback levels 🔍 Technical & Sentiment Summary Trend: SPY above 10/50/200 EMAs on all models RSI: 60–61 → bullish but not overbought MACD: Mostly positive, DS cautious on daily histogram Support Levels: $591.06, $595.54, $597.26 Resistance Zones: $600.83, $605.21, $610 VIX: 17.6 (declining), supports risk-on sentiment News: Trade talk optimism and strong jobs data fueling momentum ✅ Final Trade Setup Parameter Value Instrument SPY Strategy LONG Entry Price $600.00 Stop Loss $588.00 Take Profit $625.00 Position Size 83 shares (1% risk on $100K) Entry Timing At market open Confidence 70% 💡 Rationale: Aligned bullish signals across timeframes, falling VIX, and strong macro sentiment favor a trend continuation move toward $625. Position sized for conservative risk management. ⚠️ Key Risks & Considerations MACD divergence could signal near-term stall Resistance zone at $605 may act as a cap Macro volatility: Strong jobs could raise rate expectations VIX Watch: A spike above 20 could reverse market trend Exit Protocol: Consider closing if SPY closes below the 10-day EMA (~$591) 📊 TRADE DETAILS SNAPSHOT 🎯 Instrument: SPY 📈 Direction: LONG 💰 Entry Price: 600.0 🛑 Stop Loss: 588.0 🎯 Take Profit: 625.0 📊 Size: 83 shares 💪 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: Open
AMEX:SPYLong
by quantsignals
SHORT The S&P 500 Index: Not A Bear Market, Just A CorrectionWe are about to witness an inception of bearish action. A correction within a correction. After 7-April, the Cryptocurrency market started to recover, but the main Altcoins that were growing were all memecoins, and I wondered, "Why are mainly memecoins growing?" I know that when memecoins grow the market is actually bearish on the bigger picture. I shrugged it off and went LONG. It seems I have an explanation now, this recovery was only a partial recovery or, we are just in front of a classic retrace, a small correction. This means that regardless of how fast and strong it goes the end will result in a higher low, compared to 7-April. This means that the bullish structure will remain intact, but you can't change the fact that strength is not present on this chart. The SPX is going down next. There two main support levels to consider, you decide which one is the one that you should take. My job is to alert you of the event before it happens, great timing and entry prices, you can take care of the rest. Thank you for reading. This is a friendly reminder. Market conditions can always change. Namaste.
SP:SPXShort
by MasterAnanda
3
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Price Bounced Above Gap Support Zone - DailySPY (S&P500 ETF) price has bounced up from the $576 price support gap level. EMA Golden Cross is still active, the yellow 50EMA crossed above the red 200EMA which could signal a longer term bullish rally. SPY price has been in an uptrend since May 2025. Resistance Levels: $594, $596, $600, $607, $613. Support Levels: $581, $575, $572, $567, $564. Tariff and trade deal news, corporate earnings, presidential and government law changes, inflation data, economic data, and consumer sentiment can all affect Stock and ETF prices.
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Flying into the sun or about to get burnt?Market is about to reach all-time highs again. Many trade deals must have been made. Interest rates must have been cut. Wars must have been resolved. Personal debt must have come under control. Corporate debt must have been resolved. Wait, nothing has changed? Things are worse? Well why is the index about to hit new all-time highs? My take is a major fake out. We are about to set a double top as we complete a rising wedge pattern. The rising wedge. What began at the market bottom on 7 April, has remained bound in a channel. If the first pump up was an A followed by the declaration of the channel bottom as B, wave C has last over a month upward. We have wave 3 signals identifying wave 3 of C ending with the high on 19 May. Last week's dip was wave 4 and now we fly high this week. It is unclear if we actually make a new all-time high or fall just short. The below chart has 138.197% extension around 610.63. Inside wave C, my wave 1 was nine days long, and wave 3 was only 8. This points to wave 5 lasting less than 8 days. A common wave 1-3-5 duration in relation to wave 3 is around 114% for 1 and 50% for wave 5. The height of the rising wedge covers 66.82 points. This same distance should provide the first target bottom once we exit the channel, possibly as early as next week. Once the bottom falls, we then examine the double top pattern. Although the neckline stretches far backwards, the bottom is established at the 7 April low. The distance from the neckline to the all-time high in February provides the next possible minimum target bottom by taking this 131.43 drop and subtracting it from the neckline of 481.80. This puts the initial low around 350.37 sometime later this year or early next. There is a perfect storm of calamity brewing with zero resolutions in place or even planned. Do we finally drop or keep rising into the sun?
AMEX:SPYShort
by StockSignaler
1
ES Futures Trading Signal - 2025-05-25ES Futures Analysis Summary (2025-05-25) Comprehensive Summary of Each Model Grok/xAI Report Market context: Price $5,875 above 9-, 20-, 21-, 50-day MAs, just under 200-day SMA at $5,804.75; RSI ~59 neutral; price near upper Bollinger Band. Bias: Moderately Bullish, potential breakout above BB. Trade Plan: Long at 5,900; SL 5,840; TP 6,050; 1 contract; confidence 0.65. Claude/Anthropic Report Market context: Price above 20/50/200-day SMAs; RSI ~59; MACD histogram slightly negative; healthy pullback within uptrend. Bias: Moderately Bullish. Trade Plan: Long at 5,875; SL 5,825; TP 5,975; 1 contract; confidence 0.68. Llama/Meta Report Market context: Price above 20/50-day SMAs, just under 200-day SMA; RSI neutral; BB middle at 5,787.7. Bias: Moderately Bullish. Trade Plan: Long at 5,880; SL 5,810; TP 6,000; 1 contract; confidence 0.65. Gemini/Google Report Market context: Price above all key MAs (20/50/200, EMA9/21); RSI neutral; MACD lines above zero but slight bearish cross; recent 24h bounce after 5-day pullback; BB upper at 6,060.7. Bias: Moderately Bullish. Trade Plan: Long at 5,875; SL 5,845; TP 5,935; 1 contract; confidence 0.70. DeepSeek Report Market context: Same MAs and indicators, but emphasizes MACD bearish crossover, price rejection at upper BB, recent pullback. Bias: Moderately Bearish near-term. Trade Plan: Short at 5,875; SL 5,925; TP 5,800; 1 contract; confidence 0.65. Areas of Agreement and Disagreement Agreement: All models note price trading above short- and medium-term MAs. RSI ~59 (neutral, room to run). BB upper band is resistance; MACD histogram negative. Consensus that recent 5-day pullback is either consolidation (bullish view) or warning sign (bearish view). Disagreement: Directional bias: Four models bullish vs. one moderately bearish. Entry levels: range 5,875–5,900. Stop-loss zones: 5,810–5,840. Take-profit zones: 5,935–6,050. Clear Conclusion Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately Bullish Recommended Trade: Long ES futures Entry Range: 5,870–5,880 (target 5,875) Stop Loss: 5,845 (30-point risk) Take Profit: 5,935 (60-point reward, 2:1 R:R) Position Size: 1 contract (adjust per account risk; ~1% equity) Entry Timing: Market Open Confidence Level: 70% Key Risks and Considerations: Short-term bearish MACD crossover may lead to choppy action or minor pullback. Volatility spike at market open can cause slippage. Negative macro or news catalysts can derail technical setup. ES is highly correlated with broader equity futures; cross-asset moves may amplify moves. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "ES", "direction": "long", "entry_price": 5875.00, "stop_loss": 5845.00, "take_profit": 5935.00, "size": 1, "confidence": 0.70, "entry_timing": "market_open" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: ES 📈 Direction: LONG 💰 Entry Price: 5875.0 🛑 Stop Loss: 5845.0 🎯 Take Profit: 5935.0 📊 Size: 1 💪 Confidence: 70% ⏰ Entry Timing: market_open Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by quantsignals
1
SPY Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-05-25SPY Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-05-25) Model Summaries Grok/xAI Report Technicals: SPY at $579.11, below short-term EMAs (10/50 on 5-min), above 200-period EMA, RSI oversold on 5-min, MACD bearish. Daily chart neutral to slightly bearish. Sentiment: Rising VIX (22.29), max pain at $580. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 577 put at $5.12, profit target ~3-point move, 20% stop loss, confidence 65%. Claude/Anthropic Report Technicals: 5-min and daily charts bearish but RSI oversold intraday. Volume selling peaked. Sentiment: Max pain $580, heavy OI at 575/570 puts, futures up. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 581 calls at ~$4.91, profit targets 25–50%, 30% stop loss, confidence 65%. Llama/Meta Report Technicals: Moderately bearish on 5-min EMAs and MACD, daily neutral. Sentiment: Elevated VIX, max pain at $580. Trade: Buy 2025-05-30 579 put at $5.95, 20% profit target, 10% stop loss, confidence 70%. DeepSeek Report Technicals: Mixed signals—5-min oversold vs. daily bearish. Sentiment: Stuck between support $576.86 and max pain $580. Trade: No recommendation (confidence 45%). Gemini/Google Report Technicals: Daily and 5-min bearish, price under key EMAs. Futures suggest gap up to $581–581.50. Sentiment: Rising VIX, max pain at $580. Trade: Fade the open—buy 2025-05-30 578 puts at ~$2.20, target $3.00, stop ~$1.60, confidence 65%. Agreement and Disagreement Agreement Short-term bearish bias: Most see SPY below intraday EMAs and bearish MACD. Elevated volatility: All cite VIX rising above 20 as a risk factor and opportunity. Max pain magnet: Models note $580 as a gravitational level. Disagreement Directional tilt: Claude is moderately bullish (buy calls), others lean bearish or neutral. Trade entry strike: Puts at 577, 578, 579 vs. calls at 581. Risk parameters: Profit targets and stop losses vary widely (10–50% of premium). Conclusion and Recommendation Overall Market Direction Consensus: Moderately Bearish. SPY is below key short-term EMAs, MACD on multiple timeframes is negative, and although oversold conditions could spark a bounce, the preponderance of models favors downside. Recommended Trade Strategy: Buy a single-leg naked put Instrument: SPY weekly put expiring 2025-05-30 Strike: 577.00 (ask $5.12) Premium: $5.12 Entry Timing: At market open, assuming SPY does not gap significantly below $579 or above $581. Profit Target: 40% gain (premium ~$7.17) Stop Loss: 25% premium loss (premium ~$3.84) Size: 1 contract Confidence Level: 65% Key Risks and Considerations SPY could bounce strongly from oversold levels or pre-market futures strength, invalidating the bearish setup. Theta decay accelerates late in the week; monitor time decay. VIX spikes could amplify premium and widen bid-ask spreads. TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format) { "instrument": "SPY", "direction": "put", "strike": 577.0, "expiry": "2025-05-30", "confidence": 0.65, "profit_target": 7.17, "stop_loss": 3.84, "size": 1, "entry_price": 5.12, "entry_timing": "open", "signal_publish_time": "2025-05-25 21:27:17 UTC-04:00" } 📊 TRADE DETAILS 📊 🎯 Instrument: SPY 🔀 Direction: PUT (SHORT) 🎯 Strike: 577.00 💵 Entry Price: 5.12 🎯 Profit Target: 7.17 🛑 Stop Loss: 3.84 📅 Expiry: 2025-05-30 📏 Size: 1 📈 Confidence: 65% ⏰ Entry Timing: open 🕒 Signal Time: 2025-05-25 21:27:49 EDT Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
BCBA:SPYShort
by quantsignals
ES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) - Support Trendline Price Test -DailyES1! (S&P500 Mini Futures) price is currently testing a support trendline around $5900. If several daily Price candles close below $5865 this month, a pullback in the price can occur (rising wedge pattern). Volume has been decreasing in May 2025, compared to March and April. Finance and Technology corporate earnings season has passed. The U.S. government 90-day tariff pause is set to expire in early July (pending trade deal negotiations with other countries). Tariff and trade deal news, breaking news, corporate earnings, government law changes, consumer sentiment, inflation data, the FOMC, and presidential announcements can all affect the prices of stocks and ETFs.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by NoFomoCharts
Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty Surges Past 25,000 – What's Next? The Nifty 50 index closed the week at 25,019, posting an impressive 1,000-point rally from the previous week’s close. The index made a high of 25,116 and a low of 24,378. The rally was driven by short covering and a surprise truce between India and Pakistan, which injected a wave of optimism into the market. More importantly, Nifty broke out of the consolidation range of 23,200–24,600, closing strong above the psychologically significant 25,000 mark – a clear sign of bullish sentiment. What to Expect Next Week (Outlook May 20–24) Expected Range: 24,450 – 25,600 A breakout above 25,600 could open the doors for a retest of the all-time high (ATH) at 26,277. As long as Nifty trades above 23,800, the broader trend remains intact. Monthly Chart Patterns to Watch A bullish "W" pattern could be forming, which ideally would require a pullback from current levels before resuming upward. On the flip side, a bearish "M" pattern may emerge if the index tests ATH and faces rejection, which could trigger a sharp correction of 2,500–2,600 points. For now, I remain cautious until the monthly time frame confirms a clear bullish breakout. Global Markets Check: S&P 500 Eyes Key Resistance The S&P 500 closed at 5,958, gaining 300 points week-on-week. As anticipated, a breakout above 5,770 propelled the index to meet all short-term targets of 5,821 / 5,850 / 5,900. Key Level to Watch: 6,013 This is a major Fibonacci resistance — the same level where the market started correcting back on March 3, 2025. A weekly close above 6,013 would be bullish, potentially triggering rallies toward 6,091 / 6,142 / 6,225. However, a breakdown below this week’s low of 5,786 would confirm a failed breakout, with downside targets at 5,637 / 5,551 / 5,458. Momentum traders, get ready – sharp moves are coming either way!
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
SPY Breakout Watch: Triangle Pressure Builds Above 590SPY has surged in a strong V-shaped recovery from the March low of ~480 to testing major resistance around 595–600. The daily chart shows sustained higher highs and higher lows, but price now stalls at a key supply zone with multiple doji candles—signaling indecision. A rising trendline provides strong support near 570. Zooming into the 60-minute chart, SPY forms an ascending triangle with flat resistance at 590 and rising support from 584. Volume contraction suggests accumulation, priming a potential breakout. A 60-min close above 590 targets 596, with a stop under 588. On the 15-minute timeframe, bull-flags form frequently after morning gaps, with breakouts typically launching 4–5 points higher. VWAP and the 20-MA converge near 588.5, making it an ideal pullback entry zone. Strategy for May 19–23: Long on a clean breakout above 590 (target: 594–596) Stop under 587.5–588 Caution if daily closes below 570 Expect early-week upside tests of 590–594, followed by a potential breakout toward 595–600. If a high-volume rejection occurs near that zone, a quick scalp-short may be in play.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackCandleTrader
SP500: Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025Bearish Forecast for Major Indices Starting May 15, 2025 The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei 225, and other major indices are poised to begin a significant decline, potentially as early as today, May 15, 2025, targeting a retest of the price lows from April 7, 2025, and possibly lower (S&P 500: ~4,802.20, Dow Jones: ~36,611.78, Nikkei: ~30,340.50). This movement is driven by renewed trade tensions, disappointing economic data, and pervasive bearish market sentiment. 1. Fundamental Factors Driving Potential Decline 1.1. Renewed Uncertainty in Trade Policy · The rally in indices on May 12–13, 2025, was fueled by optimism surrounding a temporary U.S.-China tariff reduction agreement (a 90-day truce) announced after talks in Switzerland on May 11, 2025. However, as of May 15, 2025, investor confidence may be waning due to a lack of tangible progress in ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations. Trigger for May 15: Recent reports highlight conflicting statements from the Trump administration, with earlier promises of new trade deals (e.g., a U.K. deal on May 8) followed by uncertainty. A Reuters report from May 14, 2025, notes that U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent are meeting with Chinese officials, but no new agreements have been confirmed. If today’s talks yield no positive outcomes or if President Trump escalates rhetoric (e.g., reinstating higher tariffs), markets could plummet, as seen in early April when tariffs triggered a 15% drop in the S&P 500. · Trade war fears disproportionately impact export-heavy indices like the Nikkei, which is sensitive to yen appreciation and U.S.-China tensions, and the Dow Jones, with its significant exposure to multinational corporations. A breakdown in negotiations could drive indices toward the April 7 lows as investors price in higher costs and slower global growth. 1.2. Disappointments in Economic Data · CPI Reaction: The April 2025 Consumer Price Index (CPI), released on May 14, 2025, reported inflation at 2.3% annually, below the expected 2.4%. While initially viewed as positive, markets may have anticipated an even lower figure to justify Federal Reserve rate cuts. The modest S&P 500 gain (+0.7%) and Dow’s decline (-0.6%) on May 14 suggest investor skepticism about further inflation cooling. · Producer Price Index (PPI) Release on May 15: The PPI for April 2025, scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET (2:30 PM CEST) on May 15, 2025, is a pivotal event. If the PPI indicates persistent wholesale inflation—potentially driven by tariff-related cost pressures—it could signal rising consumer prices ahead, diminishing hopes for Fed policy easing and triggering a sell-off. A higher-than-expected PPI could echo the market’s reaction to mixed economic data in early April, when GDP contraction fears pushed indices lower. · Consumer Sentiment: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May 2025, released on May 14, 2025, likely showed continued weakness (April’s reading was 52.2, a multi-year low). If the May figure, reported yesterday, declined further, it could amplify concerns about reduced consumer spending, negatively impacting corporate earnings and pushing indices downward. 1.3. Concerns Over Federal Reserve Policy · On May 7, 2025, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted heightened economic risks, citing “elevated uncertainty” due to trade policies. Markets are pricing in 75 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, with the first cut expected in July. · Trigger for May 15: If today’s PPI data or other economic indicators (e.g., Initial Jobless Claims, also due at 8:30 AM ET) point to persistent inflation or economic weakness, expectations for rate cuts could fade, increasing borrowing costs for companies and pressuring equity valuations. This scenario would mirror April 7, when recession fears and tariff impacts drove the S&P 500 below 5,000. 2. Technical Analysis · The initial impulse move saw a decline of approximately -21.87%, with a second impulse of similar magnitude (marked on the chart). Currently, markets are aligned for a simultaneous decline across asset classes: oil, cryptocurrencies, and major indices like the S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nikkei, and others. · Previous analysis concluded that this is a correction preceding a broader decline in indices, driven by trade wars, geopolitical conflicts, and U.S. economic indicators. I believe a recession is already underway. Price Targets for S&P 500 Decline: ➖ Retest of the April 7, 2025, low: $4,803.00 ➖ Secondary target: $4,716.00 3. Market Sentiment and Behavioral Factors 3.1. Fragile Optimism Post-Rally · The S&P 500’s 22% rally from April lows and the Dow’s 15% recovery were driven by trade truce optimism and strength in technology stocks (e.g., Nvidia, Palantir). However, Bloomberg reported on May 14, 2025, that Wall Street’s rebound is “showing signs of exhaustion” due to trade war risks and fears of an economic slowdown. This fragility could lead to profit-taking today if negative news emerges. · The Dow’s weakness on May 14 (down 0.6% compared to the S&P 500’s 0.7% gain) highlights vulnerabilities in specific sectors (e.g., healthcare following UnitedHealth’s 18% drop), which could spread to broader markets. 3.2. Global Market Correlation · Asian markets, including the Nikkei, exhibited mixed performance on May 14, with China’s CSI 300 up slightly (+0.15%) and India’s Nifty 50 down 1.27%. If Asian markets open lower on May 15 due to overnight U.S. declines or trade-related news, it could create a feedback loop, intensifying global selling pressure. 4. Mini Evidence-Based Framework for the Forecast 4.1. Catalysts for Today’s Decline (May 15, 2025) PPI Data (8:30 AM ET): A higher-than-expected PPI could signal persistent inflation, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts and triggering a sell-off. Consensus anticipates a 0.2% monthly increase; a reading above 0.3% could be bearish. Trade Talk Updates: Negative commentary from U.S. or Chinese officials (e.g., no deal reached in Geneva) could reignite trade war fears, mirroring the April 7 sell-off. Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET): An unexpected rise in claims (e.g., above 220,000 compared to the prior fmadd211,000) could signal labor market weakness, amplifying recession fears. 4.2. Global Scenario for S&P 500 · I anticipate a wave-like decline with intermittent corrections. I wouldn’t be surprised if the S&P 500 falls below 4,700, potentially reaching 4,200. Extreme caution is warranted this year. · There’s even a theory that, starting in 2025, the U.S. dollar could lose 50% of its purchasing power. Idea: 4.3. Oil and Geopolitical Outlook I expect oil (Brent) to decline to the $50+/- range, from which an upward trend may begin, potentially tied to future military conflicts: · Europe vs. Russia · India vs. Pakistan · Iran vs. Israel
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by SergioRichi
SPY Technical Outlook – Bullish Continuation Favored Above $584SPY remains in a strong uptrend, confirmed by a bull flag breakout on the daily chart, with price currently testing the $588–590 resistance zone. A rising channel on the hourly chart has guided price since early May, with repeated bounces off the lower trendline around $578–582. Recent volume expansion on breakouts reinforces bullish conviction. On the 15-minute chart, a breakout and retest setup around $585–586 suggests a low-risk intraday long opportunity. The intraday VWAP and moving averages support this level, with momentum favoring a push toward $590. A failure to hold $584 could open downside to $582 or $578. The near-term trading bias remains bullish above $584, with targets of $590–592. Short-term traders should look to buy defined pullbacks with tight risk, while watching for volume to confirm continuation. If $590 breaks with strength, swing targets extend to $595–600. Conversely, a breakdown of the hourly channel would favor quick shorts targeting support zones below.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackCandleTrader
SPY weekly thoughts for May 12th - 16th. Trump Pump?What’s up traders — this is my first idea post here on TradingView, and I’m hyped to finally share something with the community. In this breakdown, I’ll be covering a few key areas I’m watching: 🟩 Support zones 📉 Resistance levels 🕯️ Weekly candle behaviour 🌍 Macro outlook and possible catalysts 📌 Important notes ⚠️ My current bias Let’s jump in: 🟩 Support Zones: Buyers are still showing up strong in that $505–$507 range(I highly doubt their orders will get filled lol). it had been a reliable bounce zone — we’ve seen repeated wicks rejecting that level and price snapping back VERY quickly. Above that, $550 has developed into a new area of support, and right now that’s my main level to watch. If that gives out, I expect we’ll head back down to test the $507 zone again. But for now, bulls are doing their job. 📉 Resistance SPY keeps getting stuck around $573–$575. That zone’s been tested a few times now, but buyers haven’t been able to push it through. Sellers are stepping in there almost every time. 🕯️ Weekly Candle Context That’s three straight weekly closes below resistance. Bulls get some momentum mid-week, but by Friday, sellers take over. It’s showing signs of a stall — like the market’s running out of gas near the top. 🌍 Macro Outlook – What Could Move Things There’s been some talk of softer trade discussions and early negotiations with China. If any of that turns into a real deal, it could be the spark SPY needs to finally break above resistance. But on the flip side — if Trump starts pushing new tariffs (even smaller ones), those moves tend to hold stocks back, especially in tech. So the big question is: Can SPY hit new highs if tech keeps cooling off and there’s pressure from new trade policy? That’s the tug-of-war right now — possible upside from improving global relations, but real downside risk from political decisions. 📌 Things I’m Watching: A weekly close above $575 would shift me to a bullish bias. If we lose $550, I’ll be watching closely to see how price behaves near $507. ⚠️ Current Bias Right now I’m FAIRLY neutral with a slight bullish lean, but very excited for this next weekly candle. The macro setup looks like it could support a move higher, but I’m staying decently cautious until we get a clear weekly breakout(+575) and close above resistance. Let me know what you think — and if you’re watching the same levels.
AMEX:SPYLong
by ThePlotThickens
11
Weekly Market Wrap: Nifty Dips 340 Points Amid Global TensionsThis week, the Nifty 50 ended on a cautious note, closing at 24,008, down 340 points from the previous week's close. The index traded within a tight range, hitting a high of 24,526 and a low of 23,935—well within my anticipated levels of 24,900 to 23,800. Silver Lining: Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and negative news flow—including war-related developments—bulls managed to defend the critical psychological support of 24,000. That’s a sign of resilience in an otherwise shaky environment. What’s Ahead? For the upcoming week, expect high volatility. I see Nifty moving between 24,600 and 23,200. A weekly close below 23,800 could spell trouble for bulls, potentially opening the door for a drop toward major support zones at 23,200 and 23,000. Technical Outlook: Monthly & Daily Timeframes: Weak Weekly Timeframe: Still bullish So, while long-term charts show vulnerability, the weekly trend gives hope. I'm staying cautiously bullish—but will only turn aggressive once the monthly chart flips positive. Until then, it’s time to stay vigilant, not impulsive. Global Cues: S&P 500 Holding Up Amid Uncertainty The S&P 500 closed at 5,659, just 30 points down from the previous week, forming a doji candle—a clear sign of indecision. As long as the index holds above 5,532, there's no major cause for concern. Bearish Trigger: Below 5,532, expect downside pressure toward 5,458 and 5,392, which could spill over into already fragile emerging markets like India. Bullish Breakout: Above 5,770, bulls gain momentum, with potential upside targets of 5,821, 5,850, and 5,900. A rally here could bring relief to global equities, including Indian markets.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
SPY in Focus: Tactical Day Trading Amid a Bullish RecoveryAs of early May, SPY consolidates around $560–$570, testing former support-turned-resistance. On the daily chart, the market is pausing after a rapid rally, with $610 as major resistance and $540–$485 as key support. The 1-hour chart reflects a solid uptrend with recent consolidation between $555–$568, while the 15-minute chart shows intraday weakness with critical support at $560. Three trading strategies emerge: (1) Bullish breakout, buying above $564–$568 with targets up to $580; (2) Bearish breakdown, shorting below $560 with downside to $545; and (3) Range trading, buying/selling within $558–$568 using tight stops. Confirmation via volume and candlestick patterns (e.g., engulfing or hammer) is essential. Short-term bias is bullish, but with caution—if SPY holds $560, it could retest $570 or break higher. A drop below $556 invalidates the bullish outlook.
AMEX:SPYLong
by BlackCandleTrader
BUYS For the Markets. Wait for BUYS in Gold and Silver.In this video, we will analyze the S&P 500, NASDAQ, DOW JONES, Gold and Silver futures, for the week of May 5 - 9th. The Indices are moving higher, and it's buys until they are not. Simple. Gold is near potential support at 3201. This may present a great buying opportunity once the lows are swept. A weakened USD will help this cause. Silver has made a bearish market structure shift (MSS), so buys are not yet on the table. If it disrespects a Daily -FVG, then sells are warranted. It is considerably weaker than Gold. Enjoy! May profits be upon you. Leave any questions or comments in the comment section. I appreciate any feedback from my viewers! Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis. Thank you so much! Disclaimer: I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor. All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies. I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here. Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by RT_Money
2
Weekly Market Wrap Nifty, Mid & Small Caps, and S&P 500 OutlookNifty ended the week on a strong bullish note, closing at 24,346, up by 307 points from the previous week. The index traded within a tight range, hitting a high of 24,589 and a low of 24,054, aligning perfectly with my projected range of 24,650–23,400. 📌 Key Technical Levels to Watch: Nifty closed just below a crucial Fibonacci resistance at 24,414. A daily close above 24,414 next week could open the door for a sharp move towards the next major resistance at 24,770. While my system suggests a broader range of 24,900–23,800, I personally hope for a healthy consolidation to cool off some momentum—paving the way for a stronger, faster rally in the coming weeks. Caution Zone: A break below 23,800 might signal the return of bears, potentially dragging the index down to test critical support at 23,200/23,100. Midcap & Smallcap Watch: I’ve received a lot of queries about Midcap and Smallcap indices, and here’s the honest truth—they remain in a 'no-trade' zone. Despite Nifty's strength, the rally hasn’t lifted most Mid & Small Cap stocks. 👉 Investors holding quality, fundamentally strong stocks in these segments should stay calm, but avoid high PE or overvalued stocks until we get a clear monthly buy signal on the charts. 🌍 Global Markets – S&P 500 Analysis: The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,686, just above the strong Fibonacci level of 5,637. Sustaining above this level could lead to a rally toward 5,770/5,821. However, a failure to hold this support might trigger a 2–3% pullback, which could ripple across global markets, including India. 📣 Bottom Line: Nifty bulls need a close above 24,414 to push higher. Mid & Small Cap space remains tricky—stay selective. Watch global cues, especially from the US, for broader market direction. Stay nimble, stay informed. ✅
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11
SPY Green Light to All Time Highs?As VIX is sitting around 25, this is the first Monday in I can't remember how long we aren't gapping down at open! I'll take it! There is a ton on the calendar this week: jobs, first print for Q1 GDP, PCE, ISM mfg, and a ton of consequential earnings! Not to mention will we get a couple deals announced this week. Feels like India, UK and Japan are close. This could spur a market rally to continue! Did a ton of work on Elliott this weekend, but didn't create a video. Essentially, since we closed in the wave 1 of the red C leg (on daily and weekly basis), we have invalidated a chance of a fifth leg lower (thank God!). This means we are in first impulsive intermediate 5 wave that should go to all time highs (next Apr)! Since we already have two minute impulsive waves that were similar in size, we likely will finish the minor wave 3 as pictured and then since 1 & 3 of minor waves will be similar in size the impulsive 5 wave target will be as pictured as well. Remember it is simply the net of waves 1 through 3 times 0.618 and add that to the finish of wave 4 in either case. After wave 3, we will get a pullback, but this will be a buy the dip opportunity finishing the 5th wave around 580ish. After this we will get a deeper corrective wave but if sentiment is positive it may be shallow, only 38% to 50%, so will want to re-evaluate at that point! This is why it is important if you are investing not to FOMO, as there will be many opportunities to buy the dip!
AMEX:SPYLong
by KingTrading999
Nifty Wkly Market Outlook: Bulls Regain Momentum Amid key brkoutThe Indian benchmark index Nifty 50 ended the week on a strong note, closing at 24,039, marking a robust gain of nearly 200 points from last week's close. During the week, Nifty made a high of 24,365 and a low of 23,847, trading perfectly within the anticipated range of 24,414 – 23,200, as projected in our previous analysis. Importantly, the index managed to secure a weekly close above the psychological resistance level of 24,000, signaling a possible continuation of bullish momentum. As we head into the next trading week, the bulls are expected to have the upper hand, provided Nifty stays above 23,700. A daily close below 23,700, however, could shift sentiment in favor of the bears, exposing key support zones at 23,400 and 23,200. Looking ahead, traders and investors should watch for price action within the broader range of 24,650 to 23,400. If the bulls manage to break and sustain above the critical Fibonacci resistance level of 24,414, we could see an upside move toward 24,650 and even 24,770. On the global front, the S&P 500 index also delivered a strong performance, closing at 5,525, up a significant 250 points from the previous week. As highlighted earlier, the bullish W pattern on the charts has played out well, driving momentum higher. If the S&P 500 sustains above the key breakout level of 5,551, it could potentially rally further to test resistance at 5,638, 5,670, and 5,715. However, a break below 5,391 may invite selling pressure, dragging the index down to test supports at 5,368, 5,327, or even 5,246, which could trigger a negative ripple effect across global markets. Key Takeaways: Nifty bullish above 24,000; watch 24,414 for breakout confirmation. S&P 500 bullish continuation above 5,551; potential to test 5,715. Bearish reversal levels to monitor: 23,700 for Nifty and 5,391 for S&P 500.
NSE:NIFTY
by ssudhirsharma11