Spy500
The S&P500 is preparing for an insane rallyHello Traders and Investors,
My name is Philip and I am a German swing-trader with over 4 years of trading experience.
I only trade the higher timeframes, preferably the monthly chart, because this allows me to capitalize on the major market swings.
I view trading as a long term game over the next 20 years which will help me to build massive wealth - it is not a get rich quick scheme.
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Today I want to share with you my outlook on the S&P500:
Over the past almost 15 years the S&P500 has been respecting a super simple bullish trendline. Always when the S&P500 tested this level, we saw a major rally towards the upside. And now the S&P500 is about to retest this trendline again and I do expect another push higher.
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Most of the people always follow the quick money. But the quick money is never the big money.
They think that making 5% a month consistently is reasonable, which is one of the reasons why so many traders fail.
The only think which you can control is your risk, everything else is unknown.
Keep your long term vision!
ES Bull Flagging into 4400ES Hourly Analysis - Bull Flagging into 4400
Price action was quite choppy today and was hard to read. When that happens, it's best to just step away and let price paint a picture for you over a period of time until the direction is clear. That is exactly what ES has started to do. On the 2-5 minute chart this looks like a mess, on the hourly, it's painted a beautiful picture. It is showing us that ES can not close 4400 and that any time it dips below, buyers keep stepping in.
4400 has become the battle field. We are basing/consolidating for a big move, which is expected due to this being a volatile week. While we are in a volatile week once earnings start to report, and with current world news, don't swing for the fences when entering trades. Keep it logical.
Supports: 4400, 4390, 4375.
Resistance: 4410, 4415, 4425.
SPY S&P 500 ETF 2023 Forecast. CPI Report PredictionAfter those Put options went to the target:
My timeline for SPY S&P 500 ETF after the CPI report on Feb 14 is this:
1. CPI data will come better than expected. The medium forecast in 6.2, I expect 6 - 6.1.
- The market will be exuberant afterwards and SPY will reach $431 by March 1st, thinking that the FED won the fight against inflation.
2. While inflation continues to be sticky in March, the FED will continue increasing interest rates and won`t stop until something cracks in the economy. Another 25bps increase.
- The market is expected to react and the SPY will reach $376.
3. They year will end in a positive note, the was in Ukraine will end and the supply chain disruption that was one of the factors of high inflation, will be restored. Inflation don to 3%.
My prediction for SPY by the end of the year is $436, a 15% increase YOY.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
Market to suck in die-hard bulls before abrupt reversal?Finally, the SPX rebounded to the level we initially expected it to reach (outlined last Friday). This move was accompanied by a bullish reversal in RSI, MACD, and Stochastic on the daily chart. To support a continuation higher, we want to see these indicators continue to develop bullish structures. However, to support a thesis that this is merely a correction of a prolonged downtrend that began in late July 2023, we would want to see RSI peak below 70 points (which is very common for downtrend corrections). In addition to that, we would like to see MACD fail to break above the midpoint.
As for our stance, we continue to wait on the sidelines (for short re-entry if the situation develops as expected). However, at the moment, we still do not feel comfortable to take action. The SPX might continue higher, potentially to the level where it sucks in bulls who start predicting new all-time highs and soft landing, just before an abrupt reversal. If we were to think of such a level, it would be somewhere near $4,450 (coinciding with the breakout above the sloping resistance). Though this is, of course, only a speculation at this point. It is not warranted the market will rebound as high (especially as yesterday’s candle looks somewhat exhausted). Therefore, for minor clues, we will pay close attention to the price’s ability to hold above the 20-day SMA and Resistance 1; a failure to stay above these levels will raise our suspicion and potentially signal a loss of upside momentum.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of BTCUSD and two simple moving averages. The 20-day SMA acts as a support. If the price fails to hold above this level, it will be slightly bearish and raise our suspicion.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
$SPY Inverse Head & Shoulders PatternAMEX:SPY Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern, In the recent trading sessions, the SPY index has exhibited a compelling technical pattern commonly known as the Inverse Head & Shoulders. Unlike its bearish counterpart, the standard Head & Shoulders, this pattern is generally considered a bullish indicator and may signify a trend reversal from downward to upward.
The structure of the Inverse Head & Shoulders consists of three main troughs. The middle trough (the 'head') is the lowest, flanked by two higher troughs (the 'shoulders'). The pattern is confirmed when the asset's price moves above the 'neckline,' a resistance level connecting the two shoulders.
Investors should remain vigilant for a decisive close above this neckline, as it would confirm the completion of the pattern and potentially signal the commencement of a new bullish cycle for the SPY index.
Getting closer to support zoneThis market is horrible. Still holding my long position and selling calls but when it looks that bulls are jumping in sellers show up and erase all gains. Fortunately the index is approaching to a strong support zone 415 - 410. I'm hang in there, trusting that support will hold, at least a few weeks. I won't open any long positions for now until I see a couple of big fat weekly green candles.
Unlocking SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust's PotentialAt the start of 2023, our key assumption was that bullish trends would dominate the market this year despite the challenging global macroeconomic conditions following the post-COVID-19 era. Our prediction proved accurate, as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has already surged by over 10%, despite the ongoing high hydrocarbon prices.
Bears have been trying to regain control and putting downward pressure on SPY in recent weeks. Adding fuel to the fire was the news that the Federal Reserve is ready to raise interest rates again if necessary, Jerome Powell said following the meeting at the end of September.
"Given how far we have come, we are in a position to proceed carefully as we assess the incoming data and the evolving outlook and risks. Real interest rates now are well above mainstream estimates of the neutral policy rate, but we are mindful of the inherent uncertainties in precisely gauging the stance of policy. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and we intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving down sustainably toward our objective. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments."
However, despite the negativity spreading in the media, in our opinion, all movements are taking place within the framework of corrective wave 4, which will be completed this week.
Overall, we believe that the Fed will not tighten its monetary policy as American savings continue to decline, which, given the rise in household debt, poses a significant threat to the stability of the US financial system.
In conclusion, we would like to note that we are optimistic about the American economy, which is showing its stability while China cannot recover from the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, we expect that the price of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust will continue its movement within the impulse wave 5 up to $461-462.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the assets described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
$SPY Quarter 3 (Q3) AnalysisThe S&P 500 had a correction in August and September that led to a correction back down into the EMA ribbon. I believe that SPY is trending for a strong Q4 and will make progress towards a new all-time high above $477 over the next few months (marked by the green circle). For now I would like to see a bullish bounce off the EMA ribbon.
Is TSL Stock Worthy Beyond 2025? Let's Uncover That
Now, I know what you might be thinking. TSLA has been quite the rollercoaster ride, with its stock price soaring to astronomical heights and then experiencing some sharp declines. But let's not forget the incredible achievements and disruptive innovations that Tesla has brought to the table. From electric vehicles to renewable energy solutions, this company has been at the forefront of revolutionizing multiple industries.
Looking ahead, it's crucial to consider some key factors that could shape Tesla's future performance. The electric vehicle market is projected to witness substantial growth, driven by increasing environmental concerns and government regulations. Tesla, being a pioneer in this domain, is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend and maintain its market dominance.
Moreover, Tesla's ambitious plans to expand its production capacity, particularly in emerging markets like China, bode well for its long-term prospects. As the company continues to scale up, economies of scale could potentially lead to improved margins and profitability. Additionally, Tesla's investments in autonomous driving technology could open up new revenue streams and solidify its position as a leader in the automotive industry.
Now, let's talk about the call-to-action. As traders, it's essential to keep a close eye on the performance of our investments. I encourage you to consider holding onto TSL if it consistently outperforms the SPY ETF (S&P 500 Index). While past performance is not indicative of future results, this metric can serve as a valuable indicator of TSLA's strength relative to the broader market.
By closely monitoring TSLA's performance against the SPY ETF, we can make informed decisions about the stock's long-term potential. Remember, investing is all about calculated risks and staying ahead of the curve. If TSLA consistently outshines the broader market, it may be worth considering as a long-term holding in your portfolio.
In conclusion, the question of whether TSLA is a stock worthy of holding beyond 2025 is a topic that sparks curiosity and debate. While the future is uncertain, Tesla's innovative spirit, market position, and growth opportunities make it an intriguing candidate for long-term investors.
So, let's keep a watchful eye on TSLA's performance and evaluate its potential against the SPY ETF. If it continues to outperform, it might just be the time to consider holding onto Tesla and ride the waves of its future success.
$SPY 20% Up Under 10% downAs we assess the performance landscape for this year, it's imperative to focus on key metrics that underline the strength of our investment strategy. Notably, the S&P 500 Index, represented by the SPY ETF, has appreciated approximately 20% year-to-date. This solid growth trajectory reinforces the robustness of the current bull market.
Furthermore, it's worth highlighting that market corrections have remained relatively contained, with pullbacks not exceeding a 10% decline. These controlled retracements are indicative of a market that, while exhibiting occasional volatility, is fundamentally strong.
Our analytical framework projects specific price targets for SPY, which are delineated in the accompanying chart. These targets have been carefully calculated based on a variety of factors, including historical data, economic indicators, and market sentiment.
In conclusion, while it's crucial to remain cautious and diversified, especially in a market that has demonstrated significant gains, the underlying metrics point toward a resilient market environment. We encourage you to continue to engage with us as we navigate these exciting market conditions.