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Spy500

SPX Weekly TA SPX - Weekly Chart TA, Sunday, September 24th, 2023 Based on the 3 major time fibs, I am looking for a major trend into October 18th-Nov 8th period. The 2022 High/Low time fib 2.0 was one day off from the 2023 high. (Progress/Stalemate over the Government Shutdown can affect that thesis of timing) Longs: Last week's selloff left a gap above at 4401 - Bulls want to regain the 100 day SMA. That would be the main target for a short term bounce, with the gap fill and then a test of the falling 50 day SMA. That would put us back in the value area from the July highs, and the VAH from the March lows to that same July high. Current reading is oversold on the daily, so a ST bounce is expected. Gravity Points are stacked in the HTF Supply zone, so major resistance for LT Bulls to get through. Shorts: Any bounce this week will be met with bears trying to STR. They will want to see the 100 day SMA act as resistance, and will likely see more shorts step in at the gap fill & the 4000 Psych level. A failure to regain those levels should be met with increase selling and a drop below the 4300 level. If Bears can flip the 4300 into resistance, the move to the May gap fill (4232) should be swift. I would look for Shorts to then peal positions in the HTF Demand zone from 4232 to the .382 H/L fib at 4180. The 200 day SMA is sitting in the demand zone, acting as potential added support. LONG TERM THESIS: I am expecting the bear pressure to be in control into October. If I had to make a bet, I would look for the higher Demand Zone to be tested shortly, with a test down to the lower HTF Demand zone as a possibility before an EOY rally.
SP:SPX
by AlwaysReliable
SPY S&P 500 etf Options expiring next weekIf you haven`t bought puts ahead of the FED`s Interest Rate Decision last week: Which happen to end up 4.18X higher after the Federal Reserve suggested the likelihood of another rate increase in the near future. Then you need to know that SPY is approaching an oversold area. And historically, as you can see in the RSI chart, in these areas technical players tend to buy the dip, anticipating a technical rebound. In this context, and looking into the options chain, I would consider the following Calls expiring next Friday: 2023-9-29 expiration date $430 Strike Price $4.38 Premium Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
3
SPY S&P500 ETF Options ahead of the FED Interest Rate DecisionThe latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this week has shown inflationary pressures, with a 0.6% month-on-month increase in CPI, in line with expectations. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also saw an uptick, rising by 0.3% month-on-month, above expectations at 0.2%. On a year-on-year basis, CPI has surged to 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. Moreover, core CPI, at 4.3% year-on-year, has held steady as per expectations. These numbers underscore the persistent inflationary trend we have been witnessing. Such elevated levels of inflation can be concerning for financial markets, as they often lead to higher interest rates. With the upcoming FOMC meeting, there is speculation of another 0.25 basis points rate hike, which would further tighten monetary policy. In light of this, I`m considering the following Puts: September 29, 2023 expiration date, $440 strike price, and $2.25 premium, to align with the bearish sentiment. This strategy could potentially be prudent given the expected market conditions. However, it is crucial to remain vigilant, as market reactions to FOMC decisions can be unpredictable and swift. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
1
S&P500 (SPX) -> Buy The DipMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️ I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise. This is how you build real long term wealth! In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on S&P500. After perfectly retesting the 50% fibonacci retracement level in confluence with previous structure this recent rally of more than 25% was quite expected. After this agressive rally I do expect some short term weakness and the S&P500 to retest its long term uptrendline before I think that we could see another push higher. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy. Keep the long term vision🫡
SP:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
44
SPX500 Head & Shoulders PatternEIGHTCAP:SPX500 Looks very clean Head & Shoulders Pattern developing. A **Head and Shoulders** pattern is a well-known technical analysis formation that often signals a potential trend reversal from bullish to bearish. It consists of three main parts: a higher peak (head) surrounded by two lower peaks (shoulders) on either side. The neckline connects the lows of the two troughs between the peaks. A **failed Head and Shoulders pattern** occurs when the expected trend reversal doesn't materialize as anticipated. In this scenario, the price doesn't continue downward after the completion of the pattern, defying the usual bearish implication. Instead, the price might continue its previous trend or move in an unexpected direction. Several factors could contribute to the failure of a Head and Shoulders pattern: 1. **Lack of Volume**: Patterns are more reliable when accompanied by higher trading volumes during their formation. A lack of significant volume might weaken the pattern's predictive power. 2. **Market Sentiment Shift**: If there's a sudden shift in market sentiment or unexpected news that contradicts the pattern's implication, the pattern might fail to deliver the anticipated reversal. 3. **False Breakout**: The price might break below the neckline briefly, triggering a false bearish signal, but then quickly reverse and continue the previous upward trend. 4. **Timeframe Consideration**: The pattern's effectiveness can vary based on the timeframe it appears in. Patterns on shorter timeframes might be less reliable than those on longer timeframes. 5. **Price Volatility**: Excessive volatility could lead to erratic price movements, causing the pattern to lose its predictive value. 6. **Unusual Market Conditions**: Extraordinary events, such as government interventions or major economic shifts, could disrupt the pattern's typical behavior. Investors and traders should exercise caution when interpreting technical patterns, as they are not foolproof predictors of future price movements. A failed pattern serves as a reminder that market behavior can be complex and influenced by a multitude of factors. It's crucial to consider additional technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and broader market context when making trading decisions.
SP:SPX
by AlgoTradeAlert
My Case For NO 1929 Style (Economic Collapse) + Super Bubble I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all. We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this. Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then ending with a gigantic 3rd melt up. But the truth? we need to take the (CURRCIR) (Currency in Circulation) as a proxy for the US M2 / M3 for the early 1900s What we see is there was no debasement "Quantitative Easing" almost no new currency growth meaning it was all leverage based on air. Only after 1930s did we see currency growth. Fast forward to 1999-2023 We see even before Quantitative Easing (Currency in Circulation) started an uptrend in 2004 going parabolic after 2008. Meaning the "Super Bubble" people are betting shorting right now is completely based on false information. Yes they are all wrong so is most retail. 2023 Adjust the SPY/USM2 supply we see a resistance trend going back to 2002 being hit 5 times, this means the debasement is acceleration coming back stronger every time. There's a chance something insane will happen where markets will go parabolic almost triple or quadruple the 1929 "Super Bubble" This will begin when the FRED has to cut or hold rates. Reserve Banks forced to cut rates due to debt interest (government). (Global M2 by math will go parabolic) this will flow back into companies / growth stocks. Bond Yields there's a chance they will not lower and most of the money gets captured by hard asset / growth markets, this includes Bitcoin / Gold. My thought process here is for the final "Super Bubble" to form from all this debt interest and monetary easing we have to see a blow off top in the SPY/USM2 chart, and you can guess it if the SPY makes all time highs soon while the FRED is planning to cut rates you're going to have all the (Money Market Funds) capital flow back into the stock market, there's currently trillions in short term US bonds meaning anyone purchasing TLT expecting a play for Bond Yields to fall are going to get this very wrong too (unless YCC happens for US Bonds) So has the bubble busted? based on the math it has just begun we could be in the 1927 stage.
TVC:DJI
by FederalXBT
Steep Dive Ahead?Here is the path if Intermediate wave 3 began after the first hour of trading on August 10. Not only are we possible in the early stages of Minor wave 3 which should see drastic movements, we are nearly in Minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 which should see a large drop. A midday drop is less likely so this could really be felt with a gap down on Wednesday. Intermediate wave 3 is slated to last 30 to 65 hours which would place the end into later next week. Potential bottoms for Minor wave 3 are on the left and levels for Intermediate wave 3 are on the right. All levels are based on historical data and specific wave nomenclature. A strong amount of models are looking for Minor wave 3 to end below 4400 within the next 2 days, while Intermediate wave 3 is slated to go below 4350 before next Friday. We shall see if this theory plays out as the other ones are almost completely ruled out at this point.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Michael Burry Executes Massive Short of SPY and QQQIntroduction: In recent news, renowned investor Michael Burry has made waves by executing a massive short of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). Burry's move has garnered significant attention, raising concerns about the future performance of these major USA stock market ETFs. This article aims to provide traders with a cautious analysis of the situation and present a call to action for those considering shorting these ETFs. The Burry Effect: Michael Burry, famously known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, made a bold move again. By shorting the SPY and QQQ, Burry is signaling his belief that the current market conditions may be overvalued or potentially face a correction. Traders should take note of his historical accuracy and consider the implications of his actions. Understanding the Risks: Understanding the associated risks is crucial to approach any investment decision thoroughly. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ involves betting against the market's overall performance, which can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While Burry's track record is impressive, conducting independent research and analysis is essential before making investment decisions. Considerations for Shorting: 1. Diversification: Traders should ensure their portfolios are well-diversified, spreading risk across various asset classes and sectors. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ should be considered a strategic move within a broader investment strategy. 2. Risk Management: A clear risk management plan is crucial when shorting major market ETFs. Setting stop-loss orders and regularly monitoring positions can help mitigate potential losses. 3. Expert Advice: Consult with financial advisors or professionals specializing in shorting strategies. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to individual trading goals and risk tolerance. Call-to-Action: Proceed with Caution Considering Michael Burry's recent shorting activity, traders are encouraged to proceed cautiously when contemplating short positions on SPY and QQQ. While Burry's reputation for accurate predictions is noteworthy, conducting thorough research and analysis is imperative, and assessing the potential risks and rewards associated with such trades is imperative. Ultimately, the decision to short these significant USA stock market ETFs should be based on an individual's risk appetite, investment strategy, and market outlook. Traders should carefully weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks, seek professional advice, and consider alternative investment options. Conclusion: Michael Burry's massive short of SPY and QQQ has undoubtedly sparked interest and raised questions among traders. However, it is crucial to approach such investment decisions and conduct thorough research cautiously. By considering the risks, diversifying portfolios, and seeking expert advice, traders can make informed choices that align with their individual trading goals. Remember, shorting major ETFs is a complex strategy that requires careful consideration and may only be suitable for some.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bryandowningqln
$SPY Daily Charthe AMEX:SPY is still in a parallel uptrend. The trend line has been in place since March 2023, and it has helped to support the stock market during periods of volatility. If the trend line breaks, the next support level will be at the 150-day moving average. This is a key level to watch, as a break below it could signal a more significant decline in the stock market. However, it is important to remember that the stock market is cyclical, and it is normal for there to be periods of volatility. The AMEX:SPY has been in an uptrend for the past year, and it is possible that the trend line will continue to hold. If the trend line does break, it is important to stay calm and to not panic sell. Instead, you should wait for the stock market to find a bottom and then start buying again.
AMEX:SPY
by AlgoTradeAlert
Uncertainty spreads among investors as they await more dataIn the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve (FED) meeting and subsequent 25 basis points rate hike, SPX has been experiencing fluctuating price action, oscillating primarily between $4,520 and $4,600. This range-bound activity could indicate investors’ caution as they grapple with the implications of the FED's policy changes and monitor the incoming economic data to ascertain the overall market direction. Today, we will get an update on S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and JOLTs Job Openings (note that we are not listing every data release, only ones important to us). On Thursday, we will get more information on initial jobless claims, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and ISM Services PMI. Then finally, on Friday, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are scheduled to come out. We will wait for these figures and reassess our views accordingly. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Yellow arrows indicate the divergence between the price and technical indicators MACD and RSI; in addition to that, on the MACD’s graph, the signal line can be seen breaking above the MACD line, which is slightly bearish (but it could still be only a fakeout). Therefore, we will monitor these two indicators in the following days for any signs of a potential trend reversal. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
FOMC MEETING Spy is on the come up 453 is next test pass that point 458 but with fomc meeting next week spy could see a decline. So lets time this out next looks green a couple more days of green but if spy gets lower then 447.50 then we go to 444-440 balling it. it can go that low if the fomc meeting goes south. but looks like we are in rise up is this a bubble or actually growth hard to say many stocks are still down and spy is a technology ETF. but if still stay green watch for 453 rejection once passed we go to 458 but watch for 453.
AMEX:SPY
by mikebatz
FrogAlgo: USA Economy💥It is important to understand that the US economy represents approximately 25% of the global GDP, despite having just 334 million people, which is around 4.25% of the global population. This context is crucial for comprehending various narratives prevalent in media and politics. Here are a few examples to illustrate this point 🧵: ♦️China, with 1.45 billion people (18.5% of the global population), contributes $18 trillion (18%) to the global GDP. ♦️India, with 1.4 billion people (18% of the global population), generates $3.4 trillion (3%) of the global GDP. ♦️Russia, with 146 million people (1.87% of the global population), produces $2 trillion (1.9%) of the global GDP. 💥When the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are combined, their 3.3 billion people (43% of the global population) contribute $26 trillion (26%) to the global GDP. 💥Despite the large population of the BRICS nations, their economic output barely matches that of the 334 million Americans. However, it would actually be beneficial for the US if the BRICS nations were to increase their GDP. As these 3.3 billion people become wealthier, they would become potential customers for American high-end goods and services. Consequently, the US would see increased profits. It is worth noting that the US dollar would strengthen in such a scenario, considering the 334 million Americans would have significantly more affluent customers to cater to. 💥Comparatively, Russia's 1.9% share of the global GDP pales in comparison to the US's 25% share. This is also true when considering the collective economic power of the 32 NATO member nations or the 50 countries supporting Ukraine. By engaging in actions detrimental to its own economy, such as the annexation of Crimea or involvement in Ukraine, Russia's leadership, under Putin, has effectively committed economic suicide on behalf of its people. This situation has created a humanitarian crisis without any tangible benefits for Russia. Even if Russia were to conquer Ukraine and the former Soviet bloc, the strategy of scorched earth is not conducive to maintaining a healthy and vibrant economy. 💥These examples serve to demonstrate how understanding this piece of information can help individuals better contextualize and discern between the plethora of narratives, whether accurate or unfounded, that circulate constantly in various domains.
AMEX:SPY
by A1TradingHub