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My Case For NO 1929 Style (Economic Collapse) + Super Bubble I see many many articles circulating the similarities of the 1929 "Super Bubble" and see almost all the information is very miss leading and not accurate at all. We can see the DJI compared to the SPY today is dangerously similar at face value. Enough for anyone with basics to be very nervous about this. Each cycle has a 1st bubble followed by a 2nd bubble then ending with a gigantic 3rd melt up. But the truth? we need to take the (CURRCIR) (Currency in Circulation) as a proxy for the US M2 / M3 for the early 1900s What we see is there was no debasement "Quantitative Easing" almost no new currency growth meaning it was all leverage based on air. Only after 1930s did we see currency growth. Fast forward to 1999-2023 We see even before Quantitative Easing (Currency in Circulation) started an uptrend in 2004 going parabolic after 2008. Meaning the "Super Bubble" people are betting shorting right now is completely based on false information. Yes they are all wrong so is most retail. 2023 Adjust the SPY/USM2 supply we see a resistance trend going back to 2002 being hit 5 times, this means the debasement is acceleration coming back stronger every time. There's a chance something insane will happen where markets will go parabolic almost triple or quadruple the 1929 "Super Bubble" This will begin when the FRED has to cut or hold rates. Reserve Banks forced to cut rates due to debt interest (government). (Global M2 by math will go parabolic) this will flow back into companies / growth stocks. Bond Yields there's a chance they will not lower and most of the money gets captured by hard asset / growth markets, this includes Bitcoin / Gold. My thought process here is for the final "Super Bubble" to form from all this debt interest and monetary easing we have to see a blow off top in the SPY/USM2 chart, and you can guess it if the SPY makes all time highs soon while the FRED is planning to cut rates you're going to have all the (Money Market Funds) capital flow back into the stock market, there's currently trillions in short term US bonds meaning anyone purchasing TLT expecting a play for Bond Yields to fall are going to get this very wrong too (unless YCC happens for US Bonds) So has the bubble busted? based on the math it has just begun we could be in the 1927 stage.
TVC:DJI
by FederalXBT
Steep Dive Ahead?Here is the path if Intermediate wave 3 began after the first hour of trading on August 10. Not only are we possible in the early stages of Minor wave 3 which should see drastic movements, we are nearly in Minute wave 3 of Minor wave 3 which should see a large drop. A midday drop is less likely so this could really be felt with a gap down on Wednesday. Intermediate wave 3 is slated to last 30 to 65 hours which would place the end into later next week. Potential bottoms for Minor wave 3 are on the left and levels for Intermediate wave 3 are on the right. All levels are based on historical data and specific wave nomenclature. A strong amount of models are looking for Minor wave 3 to end below 4400 within the next 2 days, while Intermediate wave 3 is slated to go below 4350 before next Friday. We shall see if this theory plays out as the other ones are almost completely ruled out at this point.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Michael Burry Executes Massive Short of SPY and QQQIntroduction: In recent news, renowned investor Michael Burry has made waves by executing a massive short of the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) and QQQ (Nasdaq 100 ETF). Burry's move has garnered significant attention, raising concerns about the future performance of these major USA stock market ETFs. This article aims to provide traders with a cautious analysis of the situation and present a call to action for those considering shorting these ETFs. The Burry Effect: Michael Burry, famously known for his accurate prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, made a bold move again. By shorting the SPY and QQQ, Burry is signaling his belief that the current market conditions may be overvalued or potentially face a correction. Traders should take note of his historical accuracy and consider the implications of his actions. Understanding the Risks: Understanding the associated risks is crucial to approach any investment decision thoroughly. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ involves betting against the market's overall performance, which can be highly volatile and unpredictable. While Burry's track record is impressive, conducting independent research and analysis is essential before making investment decisions. Considerations for Shorting: 1. Diversification: Traders should ensure their portfolios are well-diversified, spreading risk across various asset classes and sectors. Shorting ETFs like SPY and QQQ should be considered a strategic move within a broader investment strategy. 2. Risk Management: A clear risk management plan is crucial when shorting major market ETFs. Setting stop-loss orders and regularly monitoring positions can help mitigate potential losses. 3. Expert Advice: Consult with financial advisors or professionals specializing in shorting strategies. Their expertise can provide valuable insights and guidance tailored to individual trading goals and risk tolerance. Call-to-Action: Proceed with Caution Considering Michael Burry's recent shorting activity, traders are encouraged to proceed cautiously when contemplating short positions on SPY and QQQ. While Burry's reputation for accurate predictions is noteworthy, conducting thorough research and analysis is imperative, and assessing the potential risks and rewards associated with such trades is imperative. Ultimately, the decision to short these significant USA stock market ETFs should be based on an individual's risk appetite, investment strategy, and market outlook. Traders should carefully weigh the potential benefits against the inherent risks, seek professional advice, and consider alternative investment options. Conclusion: Michael Burry's massive short of SPY and QQQ has undoubtedly sparked interest and raised questions among traders. However, it is crucial to approach such investment decisions and conduct thorough research cautiously. By considering the risks, diversifying portfolios, and seeking expert advice, traders can make informed choices that align with their individual trading goals. Remember, shorting major ETFs is a complex strategy that requires careful consideration and may only be suitable for some.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bryandowningqln
$SPY Daily Charthe AMEX:SPY is still in a parallel uptrend. The trend line has been in place since March 2023, and it has helped to support the stock market during periods of volatility. If the trend line breaks, the next support level will be at the 150-day moving average. This is a key level to watch, as a break below it could signal a more significant decline in the stock market. However, it is important to remember that the stock market is cyclical, and it is normal for there to be periods of volatility. The AMEX:SPY has been in an uptrend for the past year, and it is possible that the trend line will continue to hold. If the trend line does break, it is important to stay calm and to not panic sell. Instead, you should wait for the stock market to find a bottom and then start buying again.
AMEX:SPY
by AlgoTradeAlert
Uncertainty spreads among investors as they await more dataIn the aftermath of the latest Federal Reserve (FED) meeting and subsequent 25 basis points rate hike, SPX has been experiencing fluctuating price action, oscillating primarily between $4,520 and $4,600. This range-bound activity could indicate investors’ caution as they grapple with the implications of the FED's policy changes and monitor the incoming economic data to ascertain the overall market direction. Today, we will get an update on S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing Employment, and JOLTs Job Openings (note that we are not listing every data release, only ones important to us). On Thursday, we will get more information on initial jobless claims, S&P Global Services PMI, S&P Global Composite PMI, and ISM Services PMI. Then finally, on Friday, the unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls are scheduled to come out. We will wait for these figures and reassess our views accordingly. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of SPX. Yellow arrows indicate the divergence between the price and technical indicators MACD and RSI; in addition to that, on the MACD’s graph, the signal line can be seen breaking above the MACD line, which is slightly bearish (but it could still be only a fakeout). Therefore, we will monitor these two indicators in the following days for any signs of a potential trend reversal. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
2
FOMC MEETING Spy is on the come up 453 is next test pass that point 458 but with fomc meeting next week spy could see a decline. So lets time this out next looks green a couple more days of green but if spy gets lower then 447.50 then we go to 444-440 balling it. it can go that low if the fomc meeting goes south. but looks like we are in rise up is this a bubble or actually growth hard to say many stocks are still down and spy is a technology ETF. but if still stay green watch for 453 rejection once passed we go to 458 but watch for 453.
AMEX:SPY
by mikebatz
FrogAlgo: USA Economy💥It is important to understand that the US economy represents approximately 25% of the global GDP, despite having just 334 million people, which is around 4.25% of the global population. This context is crucial for comprehending various narratives prevalent in media and politics. Here are a few examples to illustrate this point 🧵: ♦️China, with 1.45 billion people (18.5% of the global population), contributes $18 trillion (18%) to the global GDP. ♦️India, with 1.4 billion people (18% of the global population), generates $3.4 trillion (3%) of the global GDP. ♦️Russia, with 146 million people (1.87% of the global population), produces $2 trillion (1.9%) of the global GDP. 💥When the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are combined, their 3.3 billion people (43% of the global population) contribute $26 trillion (26%) to the global GDP. 💥Despite the large population of the BRICS nations, their economic output barely matches that of the 334 million Americans. However, it would actually be beneficial for the US if the BRICS nations were to increase their GDP. As these 3.3 billion people become wealthier, they would become potential customers for American high-end goods and services. Consequently, the US would see increased profits. It is worth noting that the US dollar would strengthen in such a scenario, considering the 334 million Americans would have significantly more affluent customers to cater to. 💥Comparatively, Russia's 1.9% share of the global GDP pales in comparison to the US's 25% share. This is also true when considering the collective economic power of the 32 NATO member nations or the 50 countries supporting Ukraine. By engaging in actions detrimental to its own economy, such as the annexation of Crimea or involvement in Ukraine, Russia's leadership, under Putin, has effectively committed economic suicide on behalf of its people. This situation has created a humanitarian crisis without any tangible benefits for Russia. Even if Russia were to conquer Ukraine and the former Soviet bloc, the strategy of scorched earth is not conducive to maintaining a healthy and vibrant economy. 💥These examples serve to demonstrate how understanding this piece of information can help individuals better contextualize and discern between the plethora of narratives, whether accurate or unfounded, that circulate constantly in various domains.
AMEX:SPY
by A1TradingHub
S&P 500, 6/23/23For Friday, 4467.50 can contain session strength, below which the market remains the defensive into next week, possibly yielding 4257.50 over the next 2 - 3 weeks.   Downside Friday, 4416.00 can contain intraday weakness, while breaking/opening below 4416.00 allows 4357.75 intraday, where the market can place a daily low.   A settlement today below 4357.75 signals 4299.50 on Monday, 4257.50 by the end of next week, likely contain weekly selling pressures when tested, possibly into later July.   Upside Friday, pushing/opening above 4467.50 allows 4509.00 intraday, able to contain buying through next week and below which 4257.50 is attainable over the next several weeks.   Inversely, a daily settlement above 4509.00 will keep the longer-term objective at 4616.50 in reach over the next several weeks.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
S&P 500, 6/21/23The 4195.75 long-term support area can contain selling through the balance of the year, above which 4606.50 remains a 3 - 5 month objective, the 4808.25, January 2022 all-time high expected by the end of the year.   On the way up, 4606.50 can contain monthly buying pressures, with a settlement above 4606.50 indicating the targeted 4808.25 within 3 - 5 weeks, where the broader market can double-top on a monthly basis.   Downside, a weekly settlement below 4195.75 would be considered a significant failed long-term buy signal, in essence indicating 3898.25 within 2 - 3 months.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by SpecialeAnalysis
Perfect storm breakout Several favorable factors indicate trend has changed. We had bounce off the 50 MA (Monthly). We set a higher low pivot. We had a breakout over a trendline from a cup and handle pattern. A BAM signal triggered on Jan 12th (bullish signal with excellent record). What more do you want? I am hoping for a pullback to the .38 Fibonacci line...but may need to settle for .23. Market may make it hard to get a good position. When the train leaves the station it doesn't back up to let late-comers get aboard. Many people clamoring this is a fake breakout. It may be...but price action is screaming we are going up for awhile. Use stops or keep close eye on market.
AMEX:SPYLong
by bluespark96
Climbing a wall of worryAfter breaking above the resistance near $4,200, SPX continued to grind higher for nearly two weeks. Currently, it trades close to the $4,350 price tag. Despite tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, the market is exceptionally complacent. That is reflected in the low value of the VIX that returned to levels unseen since February 2020. Technicals like MACD and RSI continue to support the rally on the daily time frame, with RSI being just slightly away from breaking above 70 points; if RSI manages to break above this level, it will be very bullish for the short term. We expect this occurrence to be accompanied by a test of resistance at $4,400. However, if RSI fails to perform a crossover and MACD starts to flatten, it will raise our suspicion about the potential trend reversal. In addition to that, we are paying close attention to the support near $4,325. If the price drops below this level, it will be slightly bearish. As for tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, general expectations are that the Federal Reserve will pause a hiking cycle and wait for more economic data to determine a further path for the monetary policy. That is because of the lagging effect of interest rates, which still have not hit the economy at full power. This decision might be viewed as an initial phase of pivoting and could act as another catalyst for the rally in the short term. The same positive effect can have today’s release of inflation data if it comes in cooler than expected. Overall, we think the short-term direction continues to favor bulls. In defiance of that, our view beyond the short-term/medium-term remains still inclined toward the notion that the U.S. economy is likely headed for a recession in the second half of 2023. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of the VIX index. Interestingly, despite SPX hitting new 52-week highs, the volatility index rose in the past two trading sessions. Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 portrays the daily chart of RSI. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bullish Weekly time frame = Slightly bullish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPXLong
by Tradersweekly
16
WITCHING FOLKSPlease don't get caught in the storm. scroll down to my previous postings about witching data. on the 13th we have FOMC data releasing as they have been inclined to pause interest rate hikes. however CPI data is released at 830 pre market. the crazy thing is over the past 3 CPI data releases Spy barely moved I remember almost all of last year when CPI released it was like earnings and the BIG WIGS WERE HATING AND STOPPED YET AGAIN A WAY FOR AVERAGE PPL TO GET RICH THATS WHAT THEY DO PLAY GAMES> anyway here on the 4hour we have bearish confluence forming . the know what's coming so they will try to hold this up probably until Thursday after noon. if your going to be placing puts please hedge your positions. because I expect the first move to happen wayyyyyyy before Friday.my next resistance is show above at 438, still yet no sell off and OMG look at TESLA contracts went from $70 to $700. You do not want to miss this fall.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
2
SPY S&P 500 Index ETF and the Debt Ceiling DealThe political climate is favorable for a small rally of SPY, the S&P 500 Index ETF, towards the next resistance level of $430. After several weeks of tense negotiations, President Joe Biden and House Republicans have reached an agreement in principle to address the debt limit and cap spending. The debt-ceiling deal is now finalized, and here are significant parts of the agreement: First, the agreement suspends our $31 Trillion debt ceiling until January 2025, providing some relief and avoiding immediate concerns. Additionally, the agreement ends the pause on student loan repayments, allowing borrowers to resume their payments. This decision aims to ensure the stability of the student loan system and address the long-term financial implications. Furthermore, the agreement includes stricter work requirements for low-income and older Americans who receive food stamps. These requirements are intended to encourage self-sufficiency and help ensure that federal aid benefits are effectively utilized. Regarding IRS funding, the agreement entails a $20 billion reduction from the initially proposed $80 billion budget. This reduction specifically targets the allocation meant to crack down on tax evasion by wealthy individuals and corporations. Moreover, the deal puts an end to the ongoing freeze on monthly student loan payments and interest. It also introduces restrictions on the President's ability to reintroduce such a freeze in the future. To avoid contentious debates until after the next presidential election, the agreement suspends the debt limit until January 2025. This decision provides a temporary relief from potential conflicts surrounding the debt limit. The agreement also implements new work conditions for Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) recipients, raising the age limit for work requirements to 54. This measure aims to promote workforce participation and enhance the effectiveness of federal aid programs. Overall, this comprehensive agreement addresses various aspects of the debt limit and spending caps, aiming to strike a balance between fiscal responsibility and supporting those in need. My overall outlook is still bearish and i think the small rally could easily turn into a bull trap. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
The Debt Ceiling The debt ceiling in the US is a legislative limit on the amount of national debt that can be incurred by the U.S. Treasury. President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy are set to hold a direct meeting on Monday following a weekend of intermittent negotiations regarding the nation's debt ceiling. This meeting takes place just days before the government faces a critical "hard deadline" where it risks running out of funds to meet its financial obligations. The possibility of a government default is unprecedented and would have devastating consequences for the nation's economy. Yellen and economic experts have expressed concerns, highlighting the potential for the situation to become "catastrophic." In the past, raising the debt ceiling used to be a routine act carried out by Congress, enabling the Treasury Department to continue borrowing funds to cover the nation's already incurred bills. However, in recent times, the vote to raise the debt ceiling has become a point of political leverage, with lawmakers using it as a must-pass bill to push forward other priorities. House Republicans, who hold the majority this Congress, are currently refusing to raise the debt limit unless President Biden and the Democrats agree to implement federal spending cuts and impose restrictions on future spending. In my opinion, we will see a suspension of the debt ceiling to allow for negotiations to form and be completed. As a result, I have a short-term bullish outlook, followed by an anticipated drop to $392 after the announcement, whatever it may be. Looking forward to read your opinion about it!
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions