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Spy500

SPY full recovery incoming? A major macro move is coming for the stock market.I think this structure looks really good, has a solid volume profile, and best accounts for why the major resistance(Orange) was so easily taken back from my last update. we were just consolidating within the pattern. On a break up, I am looking for 435 and possibly a revisit the all time high. On a break down, I will looking for 351 again. Technically, since the trend is down and this is a continuation pattern, it would indicate 351 would be the next move. But I m honestly neutral on this structure for the time being. I'm going to digest this new information for a bit. This will have MAJOR implications for crypto in the medium to long term.I think in the short term, since we closed above major resistance, we are going to get continued upside to the 403-405 level to test the major trend line. This will help BTC and crypto in the short term be able to breath up to the 25.3k level. If it is sustained well enough, we could go higher(32k) but I am playing it level by level. I am going to sit on this new information for a bit to digest it
AMEX:SPY
by BTC-HONDA
SPDR S&P 500 - Conspicuous pattern tradingHere are some obvious trading patterns that SPY has been trading lately. In Cyan , we have a bear flag. The size of the flag channel matched the breakout. In dark blue , we have a failed bullish pennant. The size of the flag channel matched the breakout. By following the basic guidelines of the formation, anybody is likely to win. I have made a couple of successful trades by following the depicted patterns, but the one key thing I have learned is not to get greedy. This is in my new year's resolution, 2023 - a slow, steady but profitable growth. Hopefully, my publishment has brought you some insight if you hadn't already seen it, and you will start looking out for the next coming trade patterns to help with your trades. GLHF.
AMEX:SPY
by WampumSeeker
SPY bull flag break out.SPY along with the Dow Jones are in a very similar broadening trading wedge. They both have also recently broken out of a bull flag, also they have both entered above the 20 level in Stochastic RSI, (the Dow first). The Dow Jones also printed a bullish engulfing monthly candle back in Oct of last year just before breaking out of it's respective bull flag. History shows us that the monthly Stochastics are very powerful when entering this level and is usually followed by price action for months to come or the next few years. The broadening wedge indicates the moves up are getting more powerful and the pull backs more harsh. This will continue on until the trend breaks. But, when will it break??? I'm not sure of the timeframe, but I might have a clue. Let me explain... AS we can see, we have two breaks in the trend, highlighted by the two circles. The first one was at the very begging of the trend and the second could be at the middle (we don't know and it doesn't" matter) what is important are the breaks of the trend and the quick reversal back into it. As we can see on both occasions a breakdown happened but within 2 to 3 candles the price recovered. The theory is that this trends blow off top could puncture the top of the broadening trend line and then quickly break back down into it, which could then break the trend completely. So, just like the bottom breaks recovering quickly the upper break could lead to the complete breakdown fairly quickly. This also applies for the Dow Jones. The bull flag points to 720 pips for the SPY when measured from the pole. So, could this be the top in the Feb to March time of 2025? Only time will tell. Remember, non of this Financial or trading advice, please do your own diligence. Kind Regards WeAreSatoshi Stay blessed in 23!
AMEX:SPYLong
by WeAreSat0shi
5
SPY - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉 Welcome back to another one of 💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡 I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!! I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart. These levels are: ⚪ White = Entry Point 🔴 Red = Stop Loss 🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 👀 So what are we looking at today…!!! 🚨( SPY ) SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust🚨 The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
AMEX:SPYLong
by sststrategy
2
The Fake Out Break OutQuick post to those of you who've been following some of my ideas. I had previously drawn the similarity between now and 2008 in terms of chart patterns, but what's playing out seems to be much more like 1968 and 2001. Notice the double tops in green before the crash both had, which closely resembles what we're headed for now. These were also the starts of boom bust cycles happening in sets of 2. With this in mind, I'm adjusting to the 2001 timeline. My new PT is $265 which would hypothetically be at the end of August.
SP:SPXShort
by PlayerNonZero
1
SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 SP500 Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 2.93% With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 65th percentile. Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between: *For calculations, I am using the data since 2022* Bullish: 2.64% movement Bearish: 2.47% movement At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset, meaning that there is a 24.2% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel: TOP: 4025 BOT: 3800 Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is : 79.22% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high(already done) 26.76% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from Daily timeframe indicates 53.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Weekly timeframe indicates 13.33% BULLISH trend from the moving averages index Monthly timeframe indicates -13.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
CME_MINI:ES1!
by exlux
Short Term Trade: Short 3870The S&P 500 has made 3 consecutive lower highs on the hourly chart as we close the day around 3870. Throughout the day, the S&P 500 tested the orderflow pivot point around 3870 and failed to sustain volume above. With the lower high, we most likely will move much lower over the next few days. As we are still within a secular downtrend on the daily chart (as measured in both EMA, HMA, and ADX-based trend following systems), we fade the bounce here. A move above 3900 would invalidate this trade.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by David_Warren_Ellison
S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: on the update of Dec. 21st, I expected that we had formed the bottom for wave (I) of c of Z of (B) and we were inside wave (II). Update: we formed a lower low on Dec. 22nd, meaning that we were early on the identification of wave (I) bottom. This is the first time I am not feeling very good about a count that I publish (I mean the hourly count, the general picture has been almost the same the whole 2022), but we just need to give it some time for more clarification. There are reasons for not liking this count, the most important of which is that the structure of wave (I) labeled in this way is not favorable. Also, wave c of (I) was very short for a wave C, wave V of a of (I) was short, and development of a wave (II) as a triangle is not usual. There are other possibilities that I can see on the chart, but for now I prefer to go with this one that wave (I) bottom is in and we are developing wave (II) of c of Z of (B) as a triangle. Note that it is also possible (lower probability in my opinion) that wave (II) is developing as a flat (in this case, we are in leg C of the flag which should develop as an impulse to the upside).
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET. The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision. Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with 2023-1-20 expiration date for about $8.96 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: it's been a few weeks that the price action has been really tricky to count. Until yesterday, we had the idea that we have peaked for wave b of Z and have started wave c of Z, which was invalidated yesterday. Update: with the higher high made yesterday, I am considering the following scenario: we have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. One thing that is worth noting is a fact I mentioned on the update of Nov. 14th: I have 4132.75 as the potential target for wave b peak . The peak of yesterday was 4132.22! Note: A very important challenge for the readers is to prove this statement to practice HEW: the hourly count I published on Dec. 8th and the current hourly count has the exact same structure of subwaves. So, we have basically not changed a lot on the hourly count, just the labels were changed because of the higher high made yesterday. Note: I repeat a valid point made on my Dec. 1st update: "There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario." Note: the broadening triangle on NDQ is a very bearish formation, but it needs breakdown through the lower trendline to confirm.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh