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S&P 500 (SPX)/Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Leading Market LowerToday, I wanted to share a chart setup that was inspired by @Badcharts that highlights the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) correlatio n — which, as @Badcharts recently highlighted on a Twitter space led (or very closely correlated) with the downturn in the S&P 500 (SPX SPY ES1!) starting in late 21’. In addition to this, I wanted to layer on the S&P 500 (SPX), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), & U.S. Recessions as these (3) inputs seem to have a very intersting correlation to the relative predictive timing of previous recessionary periods — both in 01’ & 08’. I’ve also added the “MACD Indicator” (bottom indicator) & the “Distance from Moving Average” (first indicator), using the SMA 144 & 200 Bar Lookback as these help highlight overbought/oversold conditions in the ratio of S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) — which could help you identify tactical market positioning opportunities (long or short). Here is the chart key for this setup: 📊🔑 Black/White Bars = S&P 500 (SPX) / Producer Price Index (PPIACO) Blue Line = SPX (SPY ES1!) Orange Line = Unemployment (UNRATE) Vertical Black Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Ratio Peak (SPX/PPIACO) Vertical Orange Dotted Line = Pre-Recession Unemployment Trough (UNRATE) Vertical Blue Dotted Line = Pre-Recession S&P 500 Peak (SPX) 1990 - 2023 Overview (Monthly) 📊 *2001 Recession* (Monthly & Weekly) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Mar. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = Apr. 00’ Peak (SPX) = Aug. 00’ *2008 Recession* (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 5 bars (months)* Trough (UNRATE) = May 07’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = June 07’ Peak (SPX) = Oct. 07’ 2023 Recession? (Weekly & Daily) 📊 *NOTE: First indicator peak/trough to last indicator peak/trough = 7 bars (months), but no “technical recession”…* Peak (SPX) = Dec. 21’ Peak (SPX/PPIACO) = Jan. 00’ Trough (UNRATE) = July 22’ What are your initial thoughts & observations from this chart setup? Let me know in the comments below! 👇🏼
SP:SPXShort
by kylemusserco
1
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: on the update of Dec. 21st, I expected that we had formed the bottom for wave (I) of c of Z of (B) and we were inside wave (II). Update: we formed a lower low on Dec. 22nd, meaning that we were early on the identification of wave (I) bottom. This is the first time I am not feeling very good about a count that I publish (I mean the hourly count, the general picture has been almost the same the whole 2022), but we just need to give it some time for more clarification. There are reasons for not liking this count, the most important of which is that the structure of wave (I) labeled in this way is not favorable. Also, wave c of (I) was very short for a wave C, wave V of a of (I) was short, and development of a wave (II) as a triangle is not usual. There are other possibilities that I can see on the chart, but for now I prefer to go with this one that wave (I) bottom is in and we are developing wave (II) of c of Z of (B) as a triangle. Note that it is also possible (lower probability in my opinion) that wave (II) is developing as a flat (in this case, we are in leg C of the flag which should develop as an impulse to the upside).
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options Ahead of the CPI ReportIf you haven`t shorted the Bearish Flag Chart Pattern: The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Consumer Price Index ( CPI ) data for the month of November 2022 on December 13, 2022, at 8.30am ET. The rate of inflation is the most important data that will impact the Fed’s coming rate hike decision. Now looking at the SPY options chain Ahead of the CPI Report, i would buy the $387 strike price Puts with 2023-1-20 expiration date for about $8.96 premium. If the options turn out to be profitable Before the CPI Report, i would sell at least 50%. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
SPX Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: it's been a few weeks that the price action has been really tricky to count. Until yesterday, we had the idea that we have peaked for wave b of Z and have started wave c of Z, which was invalidated yesterday. Update: with the higher high made yesterday, I am considering the following scenario: we have completed a triple zigzag in wave b. One thing that is worth noting is a fact I mentioned on the update of Nov. 14th: I have 4132.75 as the potential target for wave b peak . The peak of yesterday was 4132.22! Note: A very important challenge for the readers is to prove this statement to practice HEW: the hourly count I published on Dec. 8th and the current hourly count has the exact same structure of subwaves. So, we have basically not changed a lot on the hourly count, just the labels were changed because of the higher high made yesterday. Note: I repeat a valid point made on my Dec. 1st update: "There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario." Note: the broadening triangle on NDQ is a very bearish formation, but it needs breakdown through the lower trendline to confirm.
EIGHTCAP:SPX500
by bamdadsalarieh
Likely Bearish Confluence - S&P500, VIX, DXY & EURUSD Powells recent remarks gave the S&P the boost it needed to test the weekly bearish trend line and now price action is also at a strong horizontal area of resistance. Other indices such as the FTSE have retraced most of the drawdown from when markets started falling at the start of the year. The S&P also is currently testing its Weekly 50ema. The VIX, which is the volatility index of the S&P is also heavily oversold and is sitting right back in a large area of support, as would be expected from the S&P moving higher in recent weeks. DXY, which has seen a pretty strong pullback after the recent bear market equity rally is now back at Weekly support, which coincides with getting very close to its Weekly 50ema. The confluence seen is also reflected in EURUSD, which is retesting its Weekly 50ema and a weekly horizontal resistance level. At current the confluence in the markets is pretty clean. Powell seemed to suggest that next months rate increase would be 50 basis points and the markets seemed to really bounce from that news. However, Powell was hardly dovish. If anything it seems to me that the recent rally after Powells comments enabled the markets to move up to a good area for bearish positioning. Short S&P, Long VIX, Short EURUSD and Long DXY.
CAPITALCOM:US500Short
by Tall_Short
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations on the previous update: Completed wave c of (x) as expected and now we should head higher to form the last zigzag and complete wave b. Update: the price action followed the expected path precisely. Now, based on the structure, I see that we should still go higher. Wave 5 of a of (z) of b will form today, then we will have a pullback to test the broken descending trendline as wave b of (z) of b and again rally higher to complete wave (z). What are points of interest to consider as wave (z) peak? (~4217-4253) since the update of Nov. 14th, we had 4132.75 as a potential target, which now I think is going to be surpassed. Based on the pullback of wave a of Z, we get these points: 4208.75, 4245, 4253. Based on the volume profile of wave a of Z, we have 4276 as a previous POC and 4217 as the VAH. There is a very important point in this count, as I warned before, this count can turn into an impulsive wave with equal probability and validity, meaning the bottom is in (this is a fact in the Harmonic Elliott wave theory that a triple zigzag can be also an impulsice wave since they both have the same structure of subwaves). How do we know which count is playing out? for now, we don't really care, both counts point to the fact that we should still head higher and get rejected probably mid-December to go lower. The structure and extent of that pullback is what determines the correct scenario.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the previous update: Developing wave b as a triple zigzag Second wave (x) is a flat with its wave 5 of c still missing. Wave b can be complete as a double zigzag and the confirmation for that is if we break the ascending trendline on the hourly chart. Update: not much to update. We completed wave c of (x) as expected and now we should head higher to form the last zigzag and complete wave b. Again, don't forget that it is possible that we have peaked: we wait for the breakdown through the ascending trendline to confirm that.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the last update, I expected that we are in wave 4 of c of (y) of b. So the basic idea was that we needed a pullback followed by a final push higher. Update: I am still having the same idea, but with a little bit of relabeling to my hourly count: I think we are developing wave b as a triple zigzag and right now, the second wave (x) is developing as a flat with its wave 5 of c still missing. Note that wave b can be complete as a double zigzag and the confirmation for that is if we break the ascending trendline on the hourly chart.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh