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Spy500

ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the previous update, we had the idea that we are in wave c of (III) of c of Z of (B), but mentioned that the alternative scenario of being in wave b of Z of (B) is equally valid. Update: based on the price action I am now favoring the alternative count as my primary. The bearish move of August 16th to Oct. 13th is considered as leg a of Z and we are now in wave b of Z. Looking into the hourly chart, wave b of Z can be a double or triple zigzag. Potential targets for wave b peak? (~3980) 1. If we consider the retracement of wave a of Z, we have these targets: 3914.75, 3985.75, and 4012.25! 2. Based on the volume profile of wave a of Z, we have 3980.5 as the VPOC.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations in the previous update: We got a perfect rejection in the area noted as wave 2 of c of (III). We are in wave 1 of (A) of 3 of c of (III). Unless invalidated, I will stick to this count, but the other scenario is still possible. Update: not much update is needed to the hourly count, we are in wave 3 of (A) of 3 of c of (III). If this is the correct count, first we need to see bearish pressure breaking down the channel to show wave 3. What about the alternative scenario? the alternative scenario is still valid and is that we have completed wave a of Z (the move initiated August 16th) and we are in wave b of Z at the moment. So far we have completed one zigzag in b of Z, so it can turn out to be a triangle, flat or double zigzag.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the update of Oct. 14th, I saw three possible scenarios: 1) Wave c of (III), 2) Wave b of (III), 3) Wave b of Z of (B) being under development. In the update of yesterday, I saw scenario 1 being the most likely. Update: with this price action, scenario 2 is ruled out. At the moment, I am putting 60% probability on scenario 3 and 40% on scenario 1, based on the wave structure and the fact that we have broken out of the downward trendline. 3820 is the invalidation point for scenario 1, until then and with the volatility expected from earning reports, I would consider both scenarios as being possible. Overall, even if the 3rd scenario becomes our main count I don't expect a huge rally.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the key points of the previous update: We are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). Retest of double top's neckline on the hourly chart to happen. So far, we have completed 2 zigzags in wave 2, can it be complete? yes or it can get a third zigzag to the zone of the neckline and the downward trendline. Update: our expectations were met perfectly where the third zigzag developed on Friday pre-market and wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B) peaked at 3733.75 (3734 was the expectation). Now, we are in wave 2 (cyan) of (A) (yellow) of 3 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B) and in the regular hours of today's market we will see wave 3 of (A).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&p 500 ETF and the Midterm ElectionsThe U.S. midterm elections will be held on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022. All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are on the ballot. If you haven`t sold the high P/E ratio explained here: Then you should know that the Current S&P 500 PE Ratio is 18.10. Sill high in my opinion. Even though my Price Target for the end of the year is $338, i expect a short term rally before the Midterm Elections. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
15
SPY in Clear Downtrend - Where are we headed next??Ever since the S&P 500 topped at the end of 2021 we have been in a clear bearish down trend. Here we're looking at the weekly chart. Drawing fibonacci lines we can see the area's of previous support tell us to keep an eye on these levels: 345 320 300 275 We can also see that the RSI is oversold on weekly so we can potentially see a little rally. Macro trends are not looking great with inflation hanging around, Russia vs Ukraine tensions, etc Happy trading!
AMEX:SPY
by WillGood
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisFirst of all, my apologies for the ES updates of this week that were not so accurate. This is part of this game, you are not going to be always right. With the price action of yesterday, I see three possible scenarios and the main difference between them is to see how much the rally initiated yesterday continues (from short to long continuation): Scenario 1 (my primary count at the moment): we are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). Scenario 2: we are in wave b of (III) of c of Z of (B) playing as a flat. Scenario 3: we are in wave b of Z of (B). Once again I am letting the structure of the price action to lead me not my own expectations (personally, after seeing the big bullish candle of yesterday, I would expect more continuation than my primary count expects, but I am not allowing my expectations/emotions to lead the way). Now, I see that we are in wave 2 of c of (III) of c of Z of (B). In the updates of last week I was expecting the retest of this double top's neckline on the hourly chart to happen. So far, we have completed 2 zigzags in wave 2, can it be complete? yes or it can get a third zigzag to the zone of the neckline and the downward trendline.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPX - News lows and the follow-upLike the rest of the market, SPX hit a new low for 2022. By doing so, it reached our price target of 3 500 USD, and therefore, we would like to provide our thoughts on this asset. We continue to be bearish in general. However, at the moment, we would like to stay on the sidelines and monitor the market. We believe economic conditions will worsen with another rate hike in early November and the upcoming earning season. Therefore, we have little faith in the reversal of the primary trend. Instead, we believe that the bear market has not ended, and new lows will be set over time. As for the short-term, we will look for clues indicating exhaustion within the bounce move-up. Indeed, we think the current bounce represents an excellent opportunity for repositioning on the short side. Illustration 1.01 Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of SPX. If the price breaks above the sloping resistance 1, it will be bullish; the same applies to the sloping resistance 2. The failure will suggest otherwise. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic show signs of reversing to the upside. DM+ and DM- are bearish. Overall, the daily time frame shows signs of relief after the market became oversold in the short term. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
20
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: no change to my daily count has been made since a long time ago. The only part that tricked me was the choppy price action of the past few days to decide on the lower-time count, but I had the alternative count in mind and mentioned in the updates: "I came up with the idea that we are in wave b of (III) playing out as a triangle. Also, I have an alternative count (low probability for now) that we are in wave 3 of c of (III) and the main point to distinguish between the two counts is whether the 3571 zone holds or not." Update: the CPI came out this morning and we lost 3571, we are in wave 3 of c of (III). I will try to publish more details on the targets this evening.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: in the update of yesterday, the expectation was that we have completed wave 1 of c of (III) and need a pullback as wave 2. Update: the pullback in the so-called wave 2 continued for a short time and range afterwards and the price action made a lower low then. Now, based on the structure that I see, I think we are still in wave b of (III) developing as a triangle. As I mentioned before, this is a volatile market that we need to move day by day and adjust our expectations accordingly. Note: what about the count of yesterday? is it still valid, that we are in the very early stages of wave 3 of c of (III) at the moment? yes, it is and it can actually play out, but I don't expect that much of huge bearishness yet! we may need some more time retesting the weekly 200sma.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&P 500 ETF game plan for this weekAfter last week`s rebound played perfectly: As well as the the Head and Shoulders Bearish Chart Pattern: For this week i have selected the 1h timeframe to understand better the possible movement. I believe that we will see a rebound once again at the beginning of this week after the speaks of Chicago FED Presidend and Vice Chair of FED on Monday and Cleveland FED President on Tuesday, but the market will close once again red on Friday, after the bank reports, where i think we will hear about revisions and recession incoming. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
5
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the previous update: As we expected, ES continued higher to form leg C of zigzag. Now, we have completed a zigzag in wave b of (III). What is next? there will be a pullback at this point and its structure and extent will lead us on what to expect. This is a volatile market that we need to move day by day and adjust our expectations. Update: I now see a double zigzag being complete in wave b of (III), and we have initiated wave c of (III): There is one low-probability alternative count left in my mind: wave X (green) of b of (III) is playing out as a flat, and right now we are in it's leg C. Once again we need more subwaves to develop to be confident on which scenario is playing out, but for now we will stick to the primary count.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the key points of the previous update: I am now changing my primary count, where wave a of (III) is complete and we are in wave b. We see that wave b is developing as a zigzag correction with its wave A being complete. Update: As we expected, ES continued higher to form leg C of zigzag. Now, we have completed a zigzag in wave b of (III). Today, ES peaked at 3808.75, with the 0.667 retracement of wave a of (III) at 3807.5. What is next? there will be a pullback at this point and its structure and extent will lead us on what to expect. Wave b of (III) can be complete or it can develop as a flat or a triangle, so be careful that we have more than one possibility at this point. This is a volatile market that we need to move day by day and adjust our expectations.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the update of September 29th: With the price action of today, I think we have 2 possibilities left for wave b of (III): it's either a triangle or a flat (I prefer the triangle, but it doesn't mean the flat scenario is not possible). Update: the accuracy of analysis is obvious if we look at the current hourly chart. Now, I see us in wave 2 of c of (III). Note that I did not include the lower-degree counts on the chart so it would be cleaner. I have an alternate count where I see wave a of (III) near completion, but that's of low probability for now (when we see more price action, I may switch to that count as my primary).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY S&P 500 ETF Double Bottom Technical ReboundIf you haven`t shorted the SPY Head and Shoulders Pattern: Then you should know that a technical rebound refers to a recovery from a prior period of losses when technical signals indicate that the move was oversold. In this case, the Relative Strength Index momentum indicator of SPY S&P 500 ETF is at 24.05 on a Double Bottom Reversal Chart Pattern. A double bottom is a reversal chart pattern in technical analysis that describes a change in trend. Even though i am overall bearish on the economy, buying a strong financial instrument when the RSI is below 30, would make a case for a potential short term reversal. My ultimate price target is $338, but for now i am bullish. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYLong
by TopgOptions
1
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review my expectations on the update of yesterday: I believe we completed wave a of (III) this morning at 3613 and initiated wave b of (III). So far, I see that we have completed a zigzag in this wave b. We have the possibility of having all the three correction types in here. We need a pullback and its extent will determine the type of correction that we are having. Update: with the price action of today, I think we have 2 possibilities left for wave b of (III): it's either a triangle or a flat (I prefer the triangle, but it doesn't mean the flat scenario is not possible).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh