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SPY Puts should cash when the market opens.Ill start being more straight to the point. In my previous post I stated that the 370 level was a pivotal one. and you have seen for yourself time after time that it has been rejecting it all week. IDK why trading view is hiding my last post. Ive seen many profiles on here that should be deleted. hopefully this was the last time. Now today is Thursday and we have one more day to close off the week and the month. No one really likes September tbh for its historical bearishness. But what I do like is the buying opportunity it presents for my portfolio. Please watch the retest of the support off 363.09 and 360.99 Here's my entries for SPY today CaLLS 367.64. Puts 366.15
AMEX:SPYShort
by Courtneyd
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: it has been a long while that we have been perfectly predicting the daily price action. Finally, today was the day that we got a minor invalidation. Let's review what was the expectations of yesterday: The price action followed our revised expectations of this morning. We are in wave (A) of 5 of a of (III). Potential target for wave a of (III) bottom: 3550-3595 Update: This morning before the market open, we went lower to the exact area I had as 5 of (A) and then had a pullback to the area I had as wave (B) at market open. This was the point that the actual price action diverged from our anticipation of tagging another low as wave (C) 5 of a (red) before reversing higher. The new labeling I have for wave 5 of a of (III) is fine in regard to its structure, but it is a bit shorter than the minimum fib ratio for a typical wave 5 (that was actually the tricky part). Now, I believe we completed wave a of (III) this morning at 3613 and initiated wave b of (III). Don't forget that we were not expecting the bottom to be much lower (3550-3595). So far, I see that we have completed a zigzag in this wave b. This means we have the possibility of having all the three correction types (double zigzag, triangle, or flat) in here. Hence, the only thing I can say at this point is that we need a pullback and its extent will determine the type of correction that we are having. Some points that can act as a support for the pullback are 3670, 3694, and 3718. Corrections are tough to predict by their nature and specially in this volatile market, the best thing is to minimize your exposure until the price action is crystal clear again.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
7
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: Today we finally broke the Jun 16th low. This is what I was expecting for months, in fact let's check my ES review of June 17th : "What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag, Z to the actual market bottom." In this whole time, we were strictly on the same higher-level count, only doing minor changes to the structure of subwaves as they developed. let's review the expectations of yesterday's update: Wave 4 completed as a flat, then we went lower to complete waves a (purple) and b (purple) of 5 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green) of a (red) of (III). What follows is wave c of 5 to complete wave 3 (light green). This morning I updated the count, expecting us to go lower as wave 5 of a of (III). Update: the price action followed our revised expectations of this morning (the general structure was a bit different than I considered yesterday). Looking into the 15-min chart, I think we are in wave (A) of 5 of a of (III). Potential target for wave a of (III) bottom? * Based on fib ratios for wave 5 of a of (III): 3550-3595
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
3
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the update published on September 24th: The price action followed our expectations precisely. We have completed wave 3 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green) and wave 4 is developing as a flat, which should be completed pre-market, and finally a push lower to complete wave 3 (light green) of a (red) of (III) of c of Z. Update: wave 4 completed as a flat, then we went lower to complete waves a (purple) and b (purple) of 5 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green) of a (red) of (III). What follows is wave c of 5 to complete wave 3 (light green).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of the update published on September 22nd: The price action is following our expectations nicely. I think we completed waves a and b of 3 of (C) of 3 of a of (III) and we should head lower to complete wave 3 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green) . Further, this was my pre-market update to the count (SPX chart): Update: The price action followed our expectations precisely. Looking at the 15-min chart, I believe we have completed wave 3 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green) and wave 4 is developing as a flat, which should be completed pre-market, and finally a push lower to complete wave 3 (light green) of a (red) of (III) of c of Z.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
Potential Failure in SPYSPY created a S/R Box between 362.17 - 431.73. There was an adjustment bar formed in July. These generated a weak point (danger zone) between 362.17 - 371.04 Should you set your stochastic to be the width of the box that was created (currently 4 bars), Jan - Apr was also a 4 bar box. When Stochastics move below 30, it is an indication that it is about to challenge the lows. Currently the stochastic is 17.32, this is suggesting that there is 17.32 of the box range left until the bottom is breached. The Apr 22 value for the 4 period stochastic was 1.96 suggesting weakness and a challenge of the low. However, there is a danger zone. 371.04, if prices could bounce from here (and on Sep 23, the price is 374.22 with a low of 373.44) it shows that there is strong support here. Should prices enter this zone, if fails to hold, the bottom will fall out. The next area of potential support could fall (based on calculations Sep 23) to between 340 - 350. However, there is still 6 trade periods left in the month. End of the month calculation could result in a lower target range being generated.
AMEX:SPY
by priceprophet
1
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review the expectations of yesterday: I think we started wave (III) of c of Z today. This is going to be the start of a massive bearish leg. I think we are completing wave (A) of 3 of a of (III). This morning, following our plan, I updated my count in this way: Update: the price action is following our expectations nicely. I think we completed waves a and b of 3 of (C) of 3 of a of (III) and we should head lower to complete wave 3 (cyan) of (C) (yellow) of 3 (light green). Note that I can just publish a count on the 4-hour chart and easily don't go into detailed count, which also increases my overall "prediction accuracy" considerably, but my aim is to also help daytraders out there :-)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
10
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: Finally, after a few days of vague price action, the structure is clear to me. Since September 19th, I had the idea that we have bottomed for wave (I) of c of Z and need a pullback as wave (II). The structure of wave (II) developed yesterday and the fact that it was very shallow made me to think that we are developing a flat as wave (II) and was expecting a rally to the 3960-3986.25 zone today before wave (III), which did not happen. Yesterday I warned about this possibility: "Note that the alternative count is that we are in wave (III) to the downside with a very shallow wave (II)." Update: I think we started wave (III) of c of Z today. This is going to be the start of a massive bearish leg, which I expect to move fast. Let's look at the hourly chart: I think we are completing wave (A) of 3 of a of (III).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: this structure is definitely very unusual and tricky to count. Let's review the expectations of yesterday: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak. Update: Following the publication of yesterday's idea, we made a higher high to complete the zigzag in wave (II) as predicted. I was expecting a double zigzag to develop as wave (II), however, it did not and based on the price action of today, I think the most probable scenario is that we are developing a flat as wave (II). I am still considering the same range for wave (II) peak. Note that the alternative count is that we are in wave (III) to the downside with a very shallow wave (II).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 17th: The price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. This count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? 3960-3986.25 Update: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early, which I believe I could have known based on the structure. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Now, can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC, then a massive bearish wave (III) initiates. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing . If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week. If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG. Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions. Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
3
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 15th: The price action followed the updated count perfectly. Right now, we are in wave 3 of a of (III). Update: the price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. Again, this count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? (3960-3986.25) 1) Retracement of wave (I): 3960.25, 3976, 3986.25, and 4014 2) Volume profile of wave (I): 3951, 3962, and 4003.25 3) Support/resistance levels: 3961.25, 3976.75, 3995.5, and 4017 Note that a wave (II) generally retests wave b of wave (I) and even extends higher, in this case we have 3981.25 as peak of wave b of (I).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2