Weekly Outlook$SPY is approaching our weekly 0.236 fib retracement @ 389.87 with TTM squeeze flipping positive, we are layering our long positions into this retracement level for a potential rally into the mid-end of September.
Spy500
ES1 going to bounce hardThe 4 hour stochastic is at 0 again, greed trade is obviously down. Bounce in the morning, question is if it sustains.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: I have provided extensive reasoning and analysis on ES in earlier updates and it has been following our counts/expectations since August 11th perfectly. Yesterday, I published a review of the accuracy of the ideas in a "performance review" update.
Update: I believe we are in wave a of (III) of a of Z.
Note that we completed a head & shoulders pattern, with a price target of ~3890.
Performance Review, Week of 2022-08-22 to 2022-08-26The usual way I publish my public ideas is daily updates on ES and weekly updates on NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:NVDA .
Starting this weekend, I am going to publish performance reviews on these updates. Note that in these posts, my goal is not to update the counts, but only to compare the expectations vs reality. Updates to the counts are published in the same usual way.
Overall, you can see perfect match between AAPL, AMD, NVDA, and daily ES updates with the reality. The only one that was not matching is TSLA, which I actually warned about in it's weekend update.
AMD:
NVDA:
AAPL:
TSLA:
ES August 20th:
ES August 22nd:
ES August 23rd:
ES August 24th:
ES August 25th
COSTCO STRONG SELLCostco appears to be forming a huge H&S on weekly. While I hadn't really paid much attention to Costco I did see it mentioned yesterday which caused me to take a look. Want to note that Costco has performed strong relative to the market and that's why I like it for a short. This recent rally over the past couple of months is leaving a lot of meat on the bone for a short IMO. As you can see the past couple years have been quite the run up. Unfortunately if we are going into a bear market even the best performing stocks are liable to pull back significantly. I think we are a long way from ATHs and I expect to Costco to at least hit the first three targets within the coming months. Taking some profits today on some other shorter swing shorts and hopeful Monday Costco opens green so I that I can begin scaling in a position. Thoughts? Disagree? Feedback welcomed and appreciated! NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE ALL MY OPINION
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: do I really need to update the 15-min count I published yesterday? let's see:
Yesterday's update:
Actual price action:
This is a perfect match.
Update: Yesterday, I provided extensive description of what I see in this structure and why I believe 4220 would be wave (II) peak.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: this is going to be a pretty extensive update. First, let's review our expectation on the updates of 22nd and 23rd August:
22nd August: "I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction."
23rd August: "the 0.236 retracement of wave 3 was 4160 and wave 4 peak reached at 4161.75, meaning that wave 4 actually developed as a shallow double zigzag correction. Right now, we are in the process of completing wave 5 of c of (I). I consider the 4090.25-4105 range as the potential area for wave (I) bottom."
Update: I believe today we bottomed for wave (I) . The low was 4110.75, which missed our target zone by a very small percentage.
Additional Notes:
1) I should note that wave 5 of c of (I) was very shallow considering the fib ratios, but the structure of wave (I) from high of August 16th shows a complete impulse and the fib ratio between waves a and c of (I) are satisfied.
2) Why I am not considering us in wave 4 of c of (I) developing as a flat? this is simply because I cannot see any impulsive 5-wave count for the wave structure developed from today's low, which should have been leg c of flat.
Looking at the 15-min chart, I believe wave (II) is developing as a double or triple zigzag, preferring a triple zigzag based on the target I have for wave (II). What is the target I am considering as wave (II) potential peak (~4220)?
1) Based on fib retracement of wave (I): 4200.5, 4219, and 4237.75.
2) On the hourly chart, we can see an inverse h&s, with a price target of around 4207.
3) Based on the volume profile of wave (I): We have a high volume node starting at 4220.
4) Support and resistance levels:
SPY likely going towards lower lowsObviously there are many reasons to be bearish on the stock market in these times. This chart was made to highlight the bearish divergence on the rsi as well as the downtrend that we are currently seeing. The three green lines represent areas of support and potential short targets. Enjoy.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on yesterday's update: "I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Since this wave has just started its development, we don't have any exact clue on where it might end, but we have one hint: wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction. For now, I am considering 4186 as a potential target for wave 4 peak."
Update: the 0.236 retracement of wave 3 was 4160 and wave 4 peak reached at 4161.75, meaning that wave 4 actually developed as a shallow double zigzag correction. Right now, we are in the process of completing wave 5 of c of (I). I consider the 4090.25-4105 range as the potential area for wave (I) bottom.
$SPYThe Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: the price action has been following our expectations flawlessly since August 11th. Let's review the update of August 20th: "I believe that market has started the third bearish zigzag , wave Z to new lows. Looking into the hourly chart, we can see that currently we are working on wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z."
Update: there is not much to update on the count. I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Since this wave has just started its development, we don't have any exact clue on where it might end, but we have one hint: wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction . For now, I am considering 4186 as a potential target for wave 4 peak.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
Overview: in my update on August 15th, I shared the following hourly count, expecting the market to peak around 4325. This count played out perfectly and market peaked at 4327.5! During the week, we were updating the structure of leg Z as it was developing its very early stages.
Update: as you can see, I believe that market has started the third bearish zigzag, wave Z to new lows. Looking into the hourly chart, we can see that currently we are working on wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z. Two notes on technical analysis:
1) We can see that the upward bullish channel that was holding since July 14th was broken decisively, shown with dashed blue trendline.
2) The formation of h&s was an alert to the fact that market is topping and wave (B) of 3 of c of (I) was actually a perfect retest of the neckline of the h&s.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliot Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
Yesterday, I published the idea that we have completed wave 2 of a of (I) of a of Z and have started wave 3. However, based on today's price action, I believe we are still in some kind of extended WXY wave 2 as shown on this 30-min chart:
There is still a little bit of chance that we have not topped yet for wave X, but I prefer the count shown here for now.
$SPY daily Looking at $SPY 1D, the price is stalling around trendline resistance with a slight RSI divergence. We are going to continue monitoring for signs of relative weakness here while layering our short positions to swing for a move back down towards 400 by mid-september or sooner.
2X $SPY 1D ANALYSIS! (SPY MEETS TRENDLINE)$SPY has been bullish since June '22, after it broke the short-term bearish trendline & ran for +10%. seeing the rejection of the trendline can mean a reversal wait on confirmation! Lot of Good FOMC new had stocks rallying up after news but spy didnt move a lot which lets me know either end of a trend/reversal or a fake breakout & a long consolidation period!
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
I did not publish a new idea on ES yesterday, since the price action was following the expected path perfectly and I only added the following update to the idea of August 12th:
Overview: since August 11th, we were expecting that we are in wave V of (c) of y of X. As a potential target for wave X peak, I refer to my August 11th update: "Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310)."
Update: I believe that market peaked today. What is my reasoning for this claim?
The same hourly count that I was updating since August 11th is now showing a complete structure for wave V of (c) of y of X.
The high of today was 4327.5, which is aligned with several fib ratios: for example, a target for wave (5) was 4329.75 or a price target for wave C was 4329.
The 200SMA on the daily chart can act as a strong pivot, which was at 4322.44 today and rejected the price nicely.
Note: in case that wave V of (c) of y of X is still not completed and we make a higher high, I don't expect that high to be more than 4340 (I am considering a very low chance for this scenario at the moment.)
The only reason that I am considering this scenario is based on the hourly chart of appl, where I am still expecting a higher high on that name. This can lead to the same thing that happened on March 30th, 2022, where aapl made a higher high in that day, while spy did not.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
Overview: let's do a quick review of my expectations in the past two months:
since June 15th, we were prepared for the market bottoming out for wave Y and then a pullback as wave X.
June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom."
June 24th: "We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range. For now, I am considering it as a zigzag development, but it can be developed in any kind of corrective structures."
June 28th: "we started thinking that wave X is developing as a double or triple zigzag , which is still a valid point. However, the subwaves of this X wave developed in a different way than we anticipated."
July 25th: "this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z)." Since wave X started to develop, this was my first time I was guessing that the peak for wave X was in.
July 29th: "with this strength caused mainly by aapl and amzn ER, I am doing a major relabeling in wave X" and "I now favor 4300 range as wave X top".
August 11th: "I have to do a little bit of relabeling to wave (c) of y of X. Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310):"
Note: my goal in doing this review is to make up my mind before continuing with the update. I am not implying that I was never wrong in this process of analysis, which is definitely a part of this game. Also, if you go back and hit the play button on the updates, what you can see is that most of the times, we could get the right direction of the market the following day.
Update: let's look at the 4h chart: I see us extending in wave C of V of (c) of y of X. I am still considering the same potential target for wave X peak: 4290-4310
SPYExpect 440 on SPY to bring some real resistance if it can even get there. Lots of people turning bullish be careful, this isn't the bottom you want to be accumulating on for right now lol.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
Overview: I am not going to lie, the prediction of this leg up has been trickier than I considered. On my August 9th update, I had the idea that market has topped, however, the rally caused by CPI data invalidated that.
Update: I have to do a little bit of relabeling to wave (c) of y of X. Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310):
1) Retracement of Y: 4300.75
2) (a) to (c) of y: 4274.75 and 4303.25
3) Wave V: 4286.5 and 4311.75
We are not out of the wood works yet! The market has been putting in some work the past 2 days. Imo we will hold support here in mid range. The true test is getting back above the 200 sma on the daily by the end of next week or in the next 2 weeks.
SPY to the downsideSPY looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders to take on the wall. I don't see the volume justifying us getting over this current wall so I assume we will develop support at about 390-395 so we can take on the 420 walls if we even get past the 415 walls. A lot of market maker activity, very obvious shorts that are pumping in premarket which makes me assume we're in for a drop. I also assume based on the price levels of bitcoin, BTC will go test 21k and then 19k if that fails. Ideally, BTC catches at that support, and both BTC and SPY rally and I get into Microstrategy 2024 leaps and plan my retirement. I'll probably buy one when BTC hits 21 and average down at 19. They are about 10k per option for 300c leaps and if BTC rips with MicroStrategy holding then each option will go for at least 70-90k if BTC goes back to even 60k based on Microstrategy hoarding BTC during this bear market.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
Overview: lets look at the published update of yesterday: "I believe that market topped today at 4188, missing our target by a little bit. Lets look at the hourly chart:"
Update: the price action of today followed the shown path perfectly. What follows is a little bit of move higher to complete wave (II) and also retest the trendline and then going lower for wave (III).
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
I was away this weekend and could not publish an update on ES.
Overview: lets see what was my expectation on August 4th update: I was considering that we are finishing wave (X) based on its structure and "I would consider the peak around 4200, but it looks like we might fall short of that target."
Update: I believe that market topped today at 4188, missing our target by a little bit. Lets look at the hourly chart:
