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Spy500

ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 17th: The price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. This count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? 3960-3986.25 Update: The price action followed our expectations nicely, except that I made a call for wave (I) bottom a bit early, which I believe I could have known based on the structure. Looking at the hourly chart, I believe we have almost completed a zigzag in wave (II) so far. Now, can it be all that wave (II) had to offer? yes, it is possible, but I don't think its the case, mostly because it has been a very shallow pullback as a wave (II). As a result, I am expecting a second zigzag (y) to develop tomorrow and on Wednesday before FOMC, then a massive bearish wave (III) initiates. I have the same range of 3960-3986.25 for wave (II) peak.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
#spy What was up with the quick pump on Friday?Hey wasup, SPY SPY happy MONDAY TRADERS I hope you all had a great weekend. Unfortunately Bitcoin didn't lmao. Its really funny what they did on Friday 30 mins before closing . If the dollar stays around $109.70 or above $110.00 you can kiss all of that pump goodbye and see you again at 383 -385. luckily for me I placed puts right. before close on Friday . Stuff like that is tooo good to be true. I will continue to post my out look of the market through out the week. If you would like for me to post my entries for other stocks this week let me know and I will post them and give you my IG. Please do not get caught short in puts or calls. minimize your losses and take advantage of your executions. Fed meets this week so you know what that means . They tried to price in the interest rates last week so they can pump it up this week just to catch you with your pants down by the end of the month don't say I didn't warn you.
AMEX:SPY
by Courtneyd
3
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on the update of September 15th: The price action followed the updated count perfectly. Right now, we are in wave 3 of a of (III). Update: the price action followed our proposed structure perfectly. However, based on my observation on major stocks and the fact that the wave (II) was very shallow, I am changing my primary count. Again, this count is not invalidated, however, it is not the most probable scenario in my opinion. My new labeling is that this week we completed wave (I) of c of Z and now we will have a pullback as wave (II), which I think will end by September 21st (FOMC). What follows is the initiation of wave (III) of c of Z. My target for wave (II) peak? (3960-3986.25) 1) Retracement of wave (I): 3960.25, 3976, 3986.25, and 4014 2) Volume profile of wave (I): 3951, 3962, and 4003.25 3) Support/resistance levels: 3961.25, 3976.75, 3995.5, and 4017 Note that a wave (II) generally retests wave b of wave (I) and even extends higher, in this case we have 3981.25 as peak of wave b of (I).
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
2
SPY S&P 500 September is historically the worst month for stocksTwo months have delivered an average negative return for stocks since 1945: February and September, the latter being the worst. Economic context: Russia will not restart gas supplies to Europe through a key pipeline until western sanctions are lifted. OPEC+ unexpectedly decided to cut output in October by 100,000 barrels a day. August 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on September 13, 2022. Fed’s next scheduled monetary policy meeting takes place on September 20-21. Depending on how inflation is trending and how the jobs markets and overall economy is looking we expect a Fed Rate Decisions of 50bps or 75bps hike. The crypto market context is not good either. Ethereum network’s security and performance could be negatively impacted by the upcoming Merge. Taking into consideration the information above, my price target for the SPY ETF is $374. Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
AMEX:SPYShort
by TopgOptions
4
Performance Review, Week of 2022-08-22 to 2022-08-26The usual way I publish my public ideas is daily updates on ES and weekly updates on NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:TSLA , NASDAQ:AMD , and NASDAQ:NVDA . Starting this weekend, I am going to publish performance reviews on these updates. Note that in these posts, my goal is not to update the counts, but only to compare the expectations vs reality. Updates to the counts are published in the same usual way. Overall, you can see perfect match between AAPL, AMD, NVDA, and daily ES updates with the reality. The only one that was not matching is TSLA, which I actually warned about in it's weekend update. AMD: NVDA: AAPL: TSLA: ES August 20th: ES August 22nd: ES August 23rd: ES August 24th: ES August 25th
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
COSTCO STRONG SELLCostco appears to be forming a huge H&S on weekly. While I hadn't really paid much attention to Costco I did see it mentioned yesterday which caused me to take a look. Want to note that Costco has performed strong relative to the market and that's why I like it for a short. This recent rally over the past couple of months is leaving a lot of meat on the bone for a short IMO. As you can see the past couple years have been quite the run up. Unfortunately if we are going into a bear market even the best performing stocks are liable to pull back significantly. I think we are a long way from ATHs and I expect to Costco to at least hit the first three targets within the coming months. Taking some profits today on some other shorter swing shorts and hopeful Monday Costco opens green so I that I can begin scaling in a position. Thoughts? Disagree? Feedback welcomed and appreciated! NOT FINANCIAL ADVISE ALL MY OPINION
NASDAQ:COSTShort
by EZmoney24
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: this is going to be a pretty extensive update. First, let's review our expectation on the updates of 22nd and 23rd August: 22nd August: "I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction." 23rd August: "the 0.236 retracement of wave 3 was 4160 and wave 4 peak reached at 4161.75, meaning that wave 4 actually developed as a shallow double zigzag correction. Right now, we are in the process of completing wave 5 of c of (I). I consider the 4090.25-4105 range as the potential area for wave (I) bottom." Update: I believe today we bottomed for wave (I) . The low was 4110.75, which missed our target zone by a very small percentage. Additional Notes: 1) I should note that wave 5 of c of (I) was very shallow considering the fib ratios, but the structure of wave (I) from high of August 16th shows a complete impulse and the fib ratio between waves a and c of (I) are satisfied. 2) Why I am not considering us in wave 4 of c of (I) developing as a flat? this is simply because I cannot see any impulsive 5-wave count for the wave structure developed from today's low, which should have been leg c of flat. Looking at the 15-min chart, I believe wave (II) is developing as a double or triple zigzag, preferring a triple zigzag based on the target I have for wave (II). What is the target I am considering as wave (II) potential peak (~4220)? 1) Based on fib retracement of wave (I): 4200.5, 4219, and 4237.75. 2) On the hourly chart, we can see an inverse h&s, with a price target of around 4207. 3) Based on the volume profile of wave (I): We have a high volume node starting at 4220. 4) Support and resistance levels:
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: let's review our expectations on yesterday's update: "I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Since this wave has just started its development, we don't have any exact clue on where it might end, but we have one hint: wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction. For now, I am considering 4186 as a potential target for wave 4 peak." Update: the 0.236 retracement of wave 3 was 4160 and wave 4 peak reached at 4161.75, meaning that wave 4 actually developed as a shallow double zigzag correction. Right now, we are in the process of completing wave 5 of c of (I). I consider the 4090.25-4105 range as the potential area for wave (I) bottom.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisOverview: the price action has been following our expectations flawlessly since August 11th. Let's review the update of August 20th: "I believe that market has started the third bearish zigzag , wave Z to new lows. Looking into the hourly chart, we can see that currently we are working on wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z." Update: there is not much to update on the count. I believe today we completed wave 3 of c of (I) of a of Z and we have started the pullback for wave 4. Since this wave has just started its development, we don't have any exact clue on where it might end, but we have one hint: wave 2 of c was a deep double zigzag , which leads to the conclusion that this wave 4 should be a shallow triangle/ flat correction . For now, I am considering 4186 as a potential target for wave 4 peak.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh