Get started

Spy500

ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone, I did not publish a new idea on ES yesterday, since the price action was following the expected path perfectly and I only added the following update to the idea of August 12th: Overview: since August 11th, we were expecting that we are in wave V of (c) of y of X. As a potential target for wave X peak, I refer to my August 11th update: "Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310)." Update: I believe that market peaked today. What is my reasoning for this claim? The same hourly count that I was updating since August 11th is now showing a complete structure for wave V of (c) of y of X. The high of today was 4327.5, which is aligned with several fib ratios: for example, a target for wave (5) was 4329.75 or a price target for wave C was 4329. The 200SMA on the daily chart can act as a strong pivot, which was at 4322.44 today and rejected the price nicely. Note: in case that wave V of (c) of y of X is still not completed and we make a higher high, I don't expect that high to be more than 4340 (I am considering a very low chance for this scenario at the moment.) The only reason that I am considering this scenario is based on the hourly chart of appl, where I am still expecting a higher high on that name. This can lead to the same thing that happened on March 30th, 2022, where aapl made a higher high in that day, while spy did not.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone, Overview: let's do a quick review of my expectations in the past two months: since June 15th, we were prepared for the market bottoming out for wave Y and then a pullback as wave X. June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom." June 24th: "We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range. For now, I am considering it as a zigzag development, but it can be developed in any kind of corrective structures." June 28th: "we started thinking that wave X is developing as a double or triple zigzag , which is still a valid point. However, the subwaves of this X wave developed in a different way than we anticipated." July 25th: "this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z)." Since wave X started to develop, this was my first time I was guessing that the peak for wave X was in. July 29th: "with this strength caused mainly by aapl and amzn ER, I am doing a major relabeling in wave X" and "I now favor 4300 range as wave X top". August 11th: "I have to do a little bit of relabeling to wave (c) of y of X. Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310):" Note: my goal in doing this review is to make up my mind before continuing with the update. I am not implying that I was never wrong in this process of analysis, which is definitely a part of this game. Also, if you go back and hit the play button on the updates, what you can see is that most of the times, we could get the right direction of the market the following day. Update: let's look at the 4h chart: I see us extending in wave C of V of (c) of y of X. I am still considering the same potential target for wave X peak: 4290-4310
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone, Overview: I am not going to lie, the prediction of this leg up has been trickier than I considered. On my August 9th update, I had the idea that market has topped, however, the rally caused by CPI data invalidated that. Update: I have to do a little bit of relabeling to wave (c) of y of X. Right now, I see us extending in wave V of (c) of y of X. Potential targets for wave X peak (4290-4310): 1) Retracement of Y: 4300.75 2) (a) to (c) of y: 4274.75 and 4303.25 3) Wave V: 4286.5 and 4311.75
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY to the downsideSPY looks to be developing a reverse head and shoulders to take on the wall. I don't see the volume justifying us getting over this current wall so I assume we will develop support at about 390-395 so we can take on the 420 walls if we even get past the 415 walls. A lot of market maker activity, very obvious shorts that are pumping in premarket which makes me assume we're in for a drop. I also assume based on the price levels of bitcoin, BTC will go test 21k and then 19k if that fails. Ideally, BTC catches at that support, and both BTC and SPY rally and I get into Microstrategy 2024 leaps and plan my retirement. I'll probably buy one when BTC hits 21 and average down at 19. They are about 10k per option for 300c leaps and if BTC rips with MicroStrategy holding then each option will go for at least 70-90k if BTC goes back to even 60k based on Microstrategy hoarding BTC during this bear market.
AMEX:SPYShort
by kibakilla33
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: I want to do a major relabeling to my wave X. Before doing that, let's go back a little bit in my previous updates: August 1st: "exactly as expected, wave (IV) started developing as a flat correction and right now, we are in leg c of (IV). Potential targets for wave (IV) bottom (4065-4080)". Update: If you go and hit the play button on my August 1st update, you would observe that the price action followed my labeling perfectly. However, the structure of waves developed from low of August 2nd is not the way I wanted to hit my final target for wave X peak. In other words, that count is not invalidated (the actual low was 4080.5, which was in the area I considered in August 1st update), but I am going to relabel the whole wave X developed from June 17th low. In the new count, I am considering wave X developed as a triple zigzag (wxyxz). Right now, we are in wave III of (c) of z. Regarding the potential target for wave X top, I refer to my July 29th update: "I now favor 4300 range as wave X top. Something interesting about 4300 is that it is exactly the 0.667 retracement of previous leg down, Y."
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext. SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level. Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish) In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now. Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish) In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks. If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows. In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380. However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market. We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade. I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there. Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
AMEX:SPY
by anamaly
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: the best thing to say on this update is a sentence of my yesterday's idea: "I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area". Update: exactly as expected, wave (IV) started developing as a flat correction and right now, we are in leg c of (IV). Potential targets for wave (IV) bottom (4065-4080): From higher to lower degree waves: 1) Wave (IV) retracement of wave (III): 4067.5 2) Wave c ratio to wave a of (IV): 4071.25, 4082.5 and 4089.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: lets refer to my update of July 29th: "considering the current strength, I am now considering that right now we are in wave (III) of c. Wave a and b of (III) have been completed and currently we are completing wave 3 of c of (III)." Update: we don't need much update to the hourly count. I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area, but this is only an estimate, since we don't have the subwaves of wave (IV) developed yet and it is not possible to have a narrow price range in mind for where it is going to end.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh