Spy500
Bearish Rounding Top w/ Inverted cup and handle set up..Looking to short in two spots. 1st is from C wave $324. I would like to see at least 3x rejections before shorting..
SPY S&P 500 ETF Options ahead of the CPI reportThe Release of the Consumer Price Index for July 2022 is scheduled for Aug. 10, 2022, 08:30 AM.
Ahead of the CPI report next week, looking at the SPY options chain, i would buy the $390 strike price puts with
2022-11-18 expiration date for about $10.94 premium
or the $340 strike price for$3.29, same expiration date.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPY HEAD AND SHOULDERS WEEKLYBeen bearish on the market since the beginning of the year.
Not sure it slows down here anytime soon.
Could continue to chop but still see downside ahead over next 6 months.
$SPY Weekly View UpdateMany bears doubting the recent market rally have failed to see the bigger picture. If you look at the weekly timeframe on $SPY you would see MACD has just crossed about the signal line and we have RSI calling for further upside after a confirmed reversal at the 200ema within a megaphone pattern. Our extention target is between $430-$442 where we would expect profit takers to give us a reversal. We are remaining long until we have a reason not to be...
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi everyone,
It was a choppy day in the markets and there is not really much to update. I see that we are in wave V of (c) of z of X. Here is a view of the hourly count:
Wave A of V is definitely the ugliest wave I have ever counted, but I see this as the most probable count for this price action. I would consider the peak around 4200, but it looks like we might fall short of that target.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: I want to do a major relabeling to my wave X. Before doing that, let's go back a little bit in my previous updates:
August 1st: "exactly as expected, wave (IV) started developing as a flat correction and right now, we are in leg c of (IV). Potential targets for wave (IV) bottom (4065-4080)".
Update: If you go and hit the play button on my August 1st update, you would observe that the price action followed my labeling perfectly. However, the structure of waves developed from low of August 2nd is not the way I wanted to hit my final target for wave X peak. In other words, that count is not invalidated (the actual low was 4080.5, which was in the area I considered in August 1st update), but I am going to relabel the whole wave X developed from June 17th low.
In the new count, I am considering wave X developed as a triple zigzag (wxyxz). Right now, we are in wave III of (c) of z. Regarding the potential target for wave X top, I refer to my July 29th update: "I now favor 4300 range as wave X top. Something interesting about 4300 is that it is exactly the 0.667 retracement of previous leg down, Y."
SPY Trade Idea (BULL TRAP)Here Im using the trend based fib ext.
SPY is currently at the June highs and the 1.618 Fib level.
Seeing deviation with price making a higher high and the RSI making a lower low on the 4HR. (Bearish)
In June fear turned to euphoria in an instant. Talks about the bear market being over started, just like it is now.
Spy fell out of an ascending channel after initially getting rejected from the 1.618. (Bearish)
In June it took about a week to finally sell off and bull market talks faded in the. background. I think we see a similar story in the next few days and weeks.
If you're bullish i would be patient, things dont go up in a straight line. The RSI on the daily is at levels not seen since March. VIX is on a strong support which has generally marked local tops. If you notice there has been 3 times we previously touched this support and every time has been a sell signal. Same goes with the top resistance, every time we touched resistance it marked a local bottom in the stock market as you can see with the red and green arrows.
In the coming weeks I am bearish on SPY and anticipate a retest of 390, a break below that and the next level is 380.
However coming off one of the best months in a long time the medium to long term future looks bright for the stock market.
We look to be forming a possible inverse head and shoulders pattern on higher time frames and if this is the case we should see strong support in the 380-390 range. (This is where Im swinging long if the market gives us these levels). I would also like to see VIX at resistance to further confirm the trade.
I wouldn't be surprised if VIX broke out of this wedge, and give us the 40+ everyone has been calling for which if in fact we do reach those levels on VIX i think that would be the max opportunity to go long on the market. We will cross that bridge when/if we get there.
Ill soon be posting ideas on individual stocks, let me know if you guys agree or disagree!
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: since July 31st, we were expecting the development of a flat or triangle as wave (IV) and considered 4065 as a potential target.
Update: wave (IV) is developing as a flat and so far we have completed legs a and b of (IV), where wave b was also a flat. Right now, we are in leg c of (IV).
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: the best thing to say on this update is a sentence of my yesterday's idea: "I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area".
Update: exactly as expected, wave (IV) started developing as a flat correction and right now, we are in leg c of (IV). Potential targets for wave (IV) bottom (4065-4080):
From higher to lower degree waves:
1) Wave (IV) retracement of wave (III): 4067.5
2) Wave c ratio to wave a of (IV): 4071.25, 4082.5 and 4089.25
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: lets refer to my update of July 29th: "considering the current strength, I am now considering that right now we are in wave (III) of c. Wave a and b of (III) have been completed and currently we are completing wave 3 of c of (III)."
Update: we don't need much update to the hourly count. I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area, but this is only an estimate, since we don't have the subwaves of wave (IV) developed yet and it is not possible to have a narrow price range in mind for where it is going to end.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: this week has been really tricky to count. I am not going to review the reasoning again, please refer to my previous analysis. Yesterday, I expected the top of wave X to appear, with some reversal signs at around 4060. However, with this strength caused mainly by aapl and amzn ER, I am doing a major relabeling in wave X.
Update: considering the current strength, I am now considering that right now we are in wave (III) of X. Wave a and b of (III) have been completed and currently we are completing wave 3 of c of (III). Referring back to my published analysis of June 24th: "Remember, the next wave to develop is wave X, which is a correction inside a correction, so it should be really tricky to count. We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range.", I now favor 4300 range as wave X top. Something interesting about 4300 is that it is exactly the 0.667 retracement of previous leg down, Y. Further, going through the fib relations between wave a and c of X, 4301 shows as a potential target.
SPY My couple centsThis week's events and catalysts:
1.White House brought us a new definition of "Recession" :
"What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession."
2. Thursday the GDP numbers will come out. We will see if there is a classic recession or will White House convince us there is no recession.
3. The interest rate hike on Wednesday
4. Big name earnings.
There are so many possibilities and this definitely be a volatile week.
Believing the rate hike will be no more than 0.75 points, what I see from the SPY chart is that the test of the supply zone then test the ichimoku cloud line then to $414 test.
In general I am on the verge of turning to a bull in mid term.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: yesterday, I published in my count the idea that the market has topped for wave X and we are going for new lows. However, this idea was invalidated today. I believe there were three hints that I could have used to prevent this wrong prediction (not to mention that in such a volatile week of FOMC and earnings, it is definitely tricky to come up with an idea of what the price action is going to do + the previously mentioned fact that we are trying to count a correction inside a correction!):
1. Looking at the weekend update I published on AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD, I had the same general prediction for all four of them: my prediction was that we are starting the week in wave IV and then we rally higher as wave V.
2. Looking at the daily chart of SPY, QQQ, AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD from 22nd to 26th July, we see a price action that screams a pullback is under process and not a reversal: decreasing volume on the leg with small candles.
3. On the hourly chart, we had a shallow wave (II), which should have guided us to expect a deep wave (IV).
Update: I believe today's price action was wave (V) of c of X, but it is not completed yet. Price targets for wave X top (4050-4060):
From higher degree to lower degree waves:
1) X retracement of Y: 4049.75
2) Wave c: 4052.25
3) Wave (V): 4059.5
7/27/22 SPYSPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ( AMEX:SPY )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $ -- B
Current Price: $401.01
Breakout Price: $405.60
Sell Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $391.40-$371.40
Price Target: $418.60-$422.00 (3rd), $425.00-$428.10 (4th)
Estimated Duration to Target: 35-38d (3rd), 78-82d (4th)
Contract of Interest: $SPY 9/16/22 405c, $SPY 10/21/22 410c
Trade price as of publish date: $11.00/contract, $12.11/contract
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: my bullish count invalidated today, however, it was not surprising to us according to the note I wrote on yesterday's update: "this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z). In that case, the best is to wait for the retest of the trendline to enter bearish . Until then, our count is the main plan."
Update: today, the lower trendline broke decisively and as noted yesterday, we got a perfect retest and rejection of it (the market has topped). Looking at the hourly count, we are currently in wave (II) of a of Z.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliot Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: lets look at the update published on July 23rd: "I see wave X not completed yet. Looking at the hourly chart, I can see that waves a and b of 5 of c of (V) are completed, with wave c completing in the coming week (market topping for the last major bearish move). Potential targets for wave X top (~4050):"
Update: there is no change to my count. Waves 1 and 2 of c completed today, with wave 3 coming next.
Important Note: this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z). In that case, the best is to wait for the retest of the trendline to enter bearish. Until then, our count is the main plan.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process/expectations through the past week:
July 16th: "Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area."
July 19th: "I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target."
The rest of the week, we were expecting a higher high everyday until we reach the target for wave X (4040-4060 range) and see the completion of the structure. If you look at my update of July 21st, you can also see that this deep pullback of yesterday was expected.
Update: I see wave X not completed yet. Looking at the hourly chart, I can see that waves a and b of 5 of c of (V) are completed, with wave c completing in the coming week (market topping for the last major bearish move). Potential targets for wave X top (~4050):
1) Wave X target: 4049.75
2) Wave c targets: 4034.75 and 4052.25
3) Wave (V) target: 4057
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
This is going to be a very short update, since there is not much to change on the count. I see wave X approaching its completion, most probably by end of Monday. We need more subwaves to develop to decide on precise targets for wave X peak, but I am considering the 4040-4060 range for now.
$spy s&p 500 etf CAUTION CAUTION $spxThe S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously...
It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory.
This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long into resistance under these circumstances.
Can it break out above? YES.
Do I think it will? NO.
Only time will tell.
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: lets review our expectation published yesterday: "I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target."
Update: there is not much to update as the price action followed our count perfectly. Potential targets for wave X top (~4040):
1) Wave X: 4018 and 4049.75
2) Wave C: 4034.75
3) Wave (V): 4042.5
4) Wave c: 4043
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders,
Overview: first of all, my triangle count was invalidated today. However, it was not unexpected in our plan as stated on July 16th review: "please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area."
Update: I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target.
SPY S&P 500 ETF options ahead of big tech earningsLooking at the SPY S&P 500 ETF options chain today, i would buy the $360 puts with
2022-8-19 expiration date for about
$2.42 premium.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
