Spy500
$SPY | Watchlist D1 | Buy Limit |Technical Confluences:
- Recent Elliott wave count shows that we are now in a Wave 4 retracement
- Price action seemed to have topped out at the 50% Fibo Extension for now (Ending Wave 3)
- Price action may test the Supply Zone again before retracing downwards towards the Horizontal Trendline and the 38% or 50% Retracement Fibo
Fundamental Confluences:
- US economic outlook is weak currently and valuations needs to normalize before we make a new high
- Businesses are suffering from high interest rate environment and for the FED to cut, growth needs to show definite weakness, which we are starting to see.
- A FED cut will not instantly improve business prospects again as interest rate changes takes time to seep into the economy
- Investors will also be wary about the upcoming elections as government policies may affect business activities
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Watching the Demand Zones as levels to begin some of my portfolio allocation into AMEX:SPY
Will place my Buy Limit orders for the it.
Remember, DYOR.
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If you have any ideas or charts, do share them in the 'Comments' section below and we can discuss our perspectives to improve or strengthen our strategies.
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Disclaimer: The above suggestion is an personal opinion in general and does not constitute as investment advice. Any decisions taken based on the above suggestion is purely your own risks. DYOR.
$SPY market top? 50%+ correction incoming?Contrary to what everyone believes is going to happen:
"We're going to see a new ATH by the end of 2024 then we decline after"
"There's no way they're going to let the market fall in an election year"
I think we're about to start a historic correction to retest the lows from covid.
Since October, price action has gone parabolic, and normally when parabolas break we see a large correction.
There's a lot of catalysts that can drive the market lower from here. High rates, other central banks cutting more aggressively than us, policy mistakes, election uncertainty, etc. for those that care about fundamentals.
However, my assessment of the chart is that we're at a market top here and we're going to start our decline lower in the near future.
I think this move is likely to happen in the timeframe that everyone thinks we'll see new highs in (so in the next 6-9 months).
If you're long, I think it's a good idea to hedge here and or set tight stops, because the move down will happen faster than most people think is possible, should it play out.
Tesla's Stellar Performance Ignites S&P 500 The U.S. stock market reached a new milestone on Tuesday, July 2nd, 2024, with the S&P 500 closing above 5,500 for the very first time. This historic achievement was fueled by a powerful surge in Tesla's stock price, coupled with positive signals from the Federal Reserve regarding potential interest rate adjustments.
Tesla, the electric vehicle (EV) leader, emerged as the star of the show. The company's stock price skyrocketed by over 10%, propelled by exceeding analyst expectations for their second-quarter deliveries. This impressive feat marked Tesla's second consecutive day of strong gains, solidifying investor confidence in the company's future prospects. The positive momentum surrounding Tesla not only propelled its own stock price but also had a ripple effect on the broader market, particularly the Nasdaq Composite. The tech-heavy index followed suit, closing at a record high itself, exceeding the 18,000 mark for the first time ever.
Beyond Tesla's individual performance, another significant factor contributed to the market's bullish sentiment. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, in a much-anticipated speech, hinted at the possibility of future rate cuts. This dovish stance from the Fed was met with enthusiasm by investors, as lower interest rates are generally seen as a positive catalyst for stock prices. Chair Powell's comments suggested that the Fed is cautiously optimistic about progress made in combating inflation, potentially paving the way for a more accommodative monetary policy in the near future.
The confluence of these events – Tesla's dominance, the Nasdaq's record highs, and the Fed's softening stance on inflation – created a perfect storm for the S&P 500 to breach the coveted 5,500 barrier. This milestone signifies a period of exceptional growth and resilience for the U.S. stock market. It's important to remember, however, that market triumphs are rarely linear. While the current outlook appears optimistic, there are always external forces that can influence market direction.
Looking Ahead: Sustainable Growth or Market Correction?
The question now on everyone's mind is whether this record-breaking rally can be sustained. Analysts hold varying perspectives. Some believe that the market's current momentum is a reflection of a robust and growing U.S. economy, with factors like strong corporate earnings and continued technological advancements fueling the rise. They argue that the S&P 500's ascent above 5,500 represents a new chapter in market history, and further growth is possible.
However, others express caution. They point to potential risks, such as ongoing geopolitical tensions, potential supply chain disruptions, and the possibility that inflation might not be definitively tamed. These factors, they argue, could trigger a market correction in the future.
Investor Takeaways: Navigating the Evolving Market Landscape
Regardless of one's specific viewpoint, this historic event serves as a crucial reminder for investors. It underscores the importance of conducting thorough research, maintaining a diversified portfolio, and having a long-term investment strategy. Investors should also stay informed about economic developments and adjust their strategies accordingly.
The S&P 500 breaching 5,500 is undoubtedly a significant milestone. It reflects a period of exceptional growth for the U.S. stock market, fueled by a combination of strong corporate performance, optimism about inflation, and potential adjustments in monetary policy. However, as with any market rally, there are always underlying risks to consider. By staying informed, maintaining a diversified portfolio, and adhering to a well-defined investment strategy, investors can navigate the evolving market landscape and potentially benefit from the current economic climate.
AlgoTradeAlert Momentum AlgorithmAlgoTradeAlert Momentum algorithm is designed for the S&P 500 index. We created this algorithm specifically for this index, which is the main index all investors/traders should be following. The algorithm was designed for swing trading using daily and weekly charts, and for longer-term investors using the monthly chart. However, you can also use this algorithm for day trading, keeping in mind that it works best with stocks that have high volume.
Spy Levels for 06/24-06/28As we can see in the charts, we have several levels that are key to buy since SPX and SPY both briefly touched the levels 5500 and 550 respectively. With that important level in mind, and the overall direction of spy being bullish, we can identify several key levels for the weekly support. The biggest resistance still holds at 550 level that would be key rejection zone if the markets keep pushing higher. if that happens. Spy should see another selloff which can initiate a possible correction until good economic data doesn't come forward. But as of now, these zones can help identify a quick scalp and possibly even a swing trade. Keep an eye out, we don't want to miss out on the quick bullish momentum!
$SPY update: Idea hasn't changed, only the timing. $480 next.Update:
Largely the same idea, just the timing changed.
I was wrong in that I initially thought we'd reject the $525-530 area and move down to my target of $480, then form a final high by the end of July/August around $550. However price decided it wanted to go straight higher to $550 area before it falls.
Think we'll see a final high be put in sometime in the next week, then we'll finally make the move lower to my target of $480.
The current move extending all the way to $550 gives me confidence that this is likely to be the top for the year and we shouldn't see a move back to this area.
While the index is going to start its decline into a bear market, certain individual stocks will still see new highs. The tricky part will be identifying which ones still have upside left. Largely I think we'll see the long-term reversals on the Mag 7 and money flow into value stocks.
Lots of beaten up charts that look good for upside soon. I'll start sharing those shortly.
Tesla at a Crossroads: Slowing Growth But High Future HopesTesla, the world's leading electric vehicle manufacturer, is presenting a mixed picture to investors. While the company is still experiencing revenue growth, profitability remains a challenge, and the stock price has dipped significantly in the past year.
Growth on Autopilot?
Tesla's revenue has grown 10.12% year-over-year, reaching $94.75 billion over the trailing twelve months. However, this growth has slowed down compared to historical levels.
Earnings in the Red
A major concern for investors is Tesla's current lack of profitability. The company reported a negative EPS (earnings per share) of -$22.67 over the past year. Despite a positive gross margin of 17.78%, high operating expenses seem to be eating into their revenue.
Is the Stock Overvalued?
Tesla's P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) sits at a high 45.49. This suggests the stock might be overvalued based on current earnings. However, the forward P/E of 54.06 hints that investors are anticipating significant future growth.
Other Signs to Consider
The analyst recommendation for Tesla is currently a cautious 2.62, leaning towards a "Hold" position. The high beta of 2.31 indicates the stock is more volatile than the overall market. Short interest, at 3.65%, suggests some investors are betting on a decline in the stock price.
A Look Ahead
Tesla's future hinges on its ability to improve profitability. Can the company achieve consistent earnings and justify its current valuation? Maintaining its historical growth rates and navigating competition from other EV manufacturers will also be crucial factors.
Overall, Tesla remains an intriguing but risky investment. Investors should carefully consider the company's financial health, future prospects, and their own risk tolerance before making any decisions.
Disclaimer:
This content has been automatically generated by an AI system and should be used for entertainment purposes only. It should not be used for any other purpose, such as making financial decisions. The information provided may contain errors, inconsistencies, or outdated information. It is provided as-is without any warranties or guarantees of accuracy. We disclaim any liability for damages or losses resulting from the use or reliance on this content.
SPY is gonna crater - NVDA was the sign like Cisco and Enron!Besides the TTM squeeze being fired off - I've seen some hedgies go to cash, PLUS I'm seeing huge dark pool buying for 2x and 3x BEARISH SPY ETF's. I bought some $11 SPXS puts for .07 a piece as a hedge. There was a ton of OI in those calls...
Links to dark pool buying in the comments.
Analyzing Bitcoin's Weekly Trend: Potential Sell Opportunity DetBitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, continues to captivate the attention of investors worldwide. As of the latest weekly trend study, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $66554.74, reflecting a substantial increase of 35.01% above the midpoint of its 52-week range. This surge places Bitcoin squarely at the zenith of its 52-week range, a notable feat considering its volatile nature.
A closer look at technical indicators reveals an interesting picture. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with a 13-period stands proudly above the Simple Moving Average (SMA) with a 30-period. This alignment suggests a bullish sentiment prevailing in the market, potentially signaling further upward momentum in the short to medium term.
However, amidst this seemingly bullish scenario, a cautious signal emerges from our technical analysis. Our proprietary indicator has assigned Bitcoin a TA score of 2, indicating a moderate signal. This score, coupled with Bitcoin's position at the top of its 52-week range, raises a flag for potential overbought conditions. While the EMA/SMA crossover implies short to medium-term bullishness, the TA score underscores the need for prudence.
Despite the indications of a potential sell opportunity, prudent investors are advised to exercise patience and conduct further analysis on a lower time frame before executing any trades. Lower time frame analysis can provide valuable insights into short-term price movements, potential support and resistance levels, and confirmation of the sell signal detected by the TA score.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin's weekly trend study reveals promising signs of bullish momentum, the presence of potential overbought conditions warrants caution. Investors are encouraged to remain vigilant and leverage additional analysis tools to make informed decisions. By staying informed and adopting a disciplined approach, investors can navigate the dynamic landscape of cryptocurrency markets with confidence.
Disclaimer:
This content has been automatically generated by an AI system and should be used for entertainment purposes only. It should not be used for any other purpose, such as making financial decisions. The information provided may contain errors, inconsistencies, or outdated information. It is provided as-is without any warranties or guarantees of accuracy. We disclaim any liability for damages or losses resulting from the use or reliance on this content.
BIG MOVE! SHORTS TRAPPED! What's next?Based on the chart analysis, the rising wedge pattern signals a likely bearish correction in the short term, with the price potentially testing the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level around $518.36 as a key support. However, the Elliott Wave projection suggests a bullish reversal toward point (C) if support holds, indicating a medium-term upward move. Traders should watch for confirmation of support at the 0.618 level and look for signs of reversal to enter long positions, targeting the previous high around $532.99 and beyond. We must stay above $524.71 to escape this wedge channel and maintain the potential for an upward breakout. Maintain vigilance for a break below the 0.618 retracement, which could signal further downside risk.
Leave a comment of what you think about where the market is heading!
SPY still bullish, holding both the 1D MA50 and MA100.Last time we looked at SPY (May 01, see chart below) we gave a strong buy signal following the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) bottom and we are already well into new All Time High territory:
As you can see, the price hit the top of the short-term (dotted) Channel Up and pulled back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again. This inability to break above the Channel Up, leads us to believe that it will continue to be the dominant pattern, instead of the long-term (blue) Channel Up, and will dictate the price action higher but only gradually.
Another test of the 1D MA100 is possible under those conditions that will allow for a smooth hit on our 555.00 long-term Target.
If however the dashed line holds, it is possible to see an even more aggressive Channel Up materializing, in which case we will move our Target even higher at 580.00, in order to represent a Bullish Leg similar to January - February 2024.
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