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Spy500

ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: the best thing to say on this update is a sentence of my yesterday's idea: "I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area". Update: exactly as expected, wave (IV) started developing as a flat correction and right now, we are in leg c of (IV). Potential targets for wave (IV) bottom (4065-4080): From higher to lower degree waves: 1) Wave (IV) retracement of wave (III): 4067.5 2) Wave c ratio to wave a of (IV): 4071.25, 4082.5 and 4089.25
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: lets refer to my update of July 29th: "considering the current strength, I am now considering that right now we are in wave (III) of c. Wave a and b of (III) have been completed and currently we are completing wave 3 of c of (III)." Update: we don't need much update to the hourly count. I see wave (III) of c of X completed. Now, we should head lower to complete wave (IV) of c of X and then final push to complete wave X. Since wave (II) of c of X has been a deep zigzag correction, wave (IV) is most probably a shallow flat/triangle type of correction. A potential bottom point for wave (IV) can be 4065 area, but this is only an estimate, since we don't have the subwaves of wave (IV) developed yet and it is not possible to have a narrow price range in mind for where it is going to end.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: this week has been really tricky to count. I am not going to review the reasoning again, please refer to my previous analysis. Yesterday, I expected the top of wave X to appear, with some reversal signs at around 4060. However, with this strength caused mainly by aapl and amzn ER, I am doing a major relabeling in wave X. Update: considering the current strength, I am now considering that right now we are in wave (III) of X. Wave a and b of (III) have been completed and currently we are completing wave 3 of c of (III). Referring back to my published analysis of June 24th: "Remember, the next wave to develop is wave X, which is a correction inside a correction, so it should be really tricky to count. We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range.", I now favor 4300 range as wave X top. Something interesting about 4300 is that it is exactly the 0.667 retracement of previous leg down, Y. Further, going through the fib relations between wave a and c of X, 4301 shows as a potential target.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
SPY My couple centsThis week's events and catalysts: 1.White House brought us a new definition of "Recession" : "What is a recession? While some maintain that two consecutive quarters of falling real GDP constitute a recession, that is neither the official definition nor the way economists evaluate the state of the business cycle. Instead, both official determinations of recessions and economists’ assessment of economic activity are based on a holistic look at the data—including the labor market, consumer and business spending, industrial production, and incomes. Based on these data, it is unlikely that the decline in GDP in the first quarter of this year—even if followed by another GDP decline in the second quarter—indicates a recession." 2. Thursday the GDP numbers will come out. We will see if there is a classic recession or will White House convince us there is no recession. 3. The interest rate hike on Wednesday 4. Big name earnings. There are so many possibilities and this definitely be a volatile week. Believing the rate hike will be no more than 0.75 points, what I see from the SPY chart is that the test of the supply zone then test the ichimoku cloud line then to $414 test. In general I am on the verge of turning to a bull in mid term.
AMEX:SPY
by aaronrtan
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: yesterday, I published in my count the idea that the market has topped for wave X and we are going for new lows. However, this idea was invalidated today. I believe there were three hints that I could have used to prevent this wrong prediction (not to mention that in such a volatile week of FOMC and earnings, it is definitely tricky to come up with an idea of what the price action is going to do + the previously mentioned fact that we are trying to count a correction inside a correction!): 1. Looking at the weekend update I published on AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD, I had the same general prediction for all four of them: my prediction was that we are starting the week in wave IV and then we rally higher as wave V. 2. Looking at the daily chart of SPY, QQQ, AAPL, TSLA , NVDA, and AMD from 22nd to 26th July, we see a price action that screams a pullback is under process and not a reversal: decreasing volume on the leg with small candles. 3. On the hourly chart, we had a shallow wave (II), which should have guided us to expect a deep wave (IV). Update: I believe today's price action was wave (V) of c of X, but it is not completed yet. Price targets for wave X top (4050-4060): From higher degree to lower degree waves: 1) X retracement of Y: 4049.75 2) Wave c: 4052.25 3) Wave (V): 4059.5
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: my bullish count invalidated today, however, it was not surprising to us according to the note I wrote on yesterday's update: "this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z). In that case, the best is to wait for the retest of the trendline to enter bearish . Until then, our count is the main plan." Update: today, the lower trendline broke decisively and as noted yesterday, we got a perfect retest and rejection of it (the market has topped). Looking at the hourly count, we are currently in wave (II) of a of Z.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
1
ES Daily Harmonic Elliot Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: lets look at the update published on July 23rd: "I see wave X not completed yet. Looking at the hourly chart, I can see that waves a and b of 5 of c of (V) are completed, with wave c completing in the coming week (market topping for the last major bearish move). Potential targets for wave X top (~4050):" Update: there is no change to my count. Waves 1 and 2 of c completed today, with wave 3 coming next. Important Note: this week is going to be very volatile with all big tech ER and FOMC on Wednesday. If we break the lower black trendline, the count is invalidated and the market has already topped, going for new lows (leg Z). In that case, the best is to wait for the retest of the trendline to enter bearish. Until then, our count is the main plan.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process/expectations through the past week: July 16th: "Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area." July 19th: "I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target." The rest of the week, we were expecting a higher high everyday until we reach the target for wave X (4040-4060 range) and see the completion of the structure. If you look at my update of July 21st, you can also see that this deep pullback of yesterday was expected. Update: I see wave X not completed yet. Looking at the hourly chart, I can see that waves a and b of 5 of c of (V) are completed, with wave c completing in the coming week (market topping for the last major bearish move). Potential targets for wave X top (~4050): 1) Wave X target: 4049.75 2) Wave c targets: 4034.75 and 4052.25 3) Wave (V) target: 4057
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
$spy s&p 500 etf CAUTION CAUTION $spxThe S&P 500 broke out of its descending trendline on Tuesday and is bulling, here is why I'm playing this cautiously... It has a gap (red) that it is beginning to fill. It can easily fill the entire gap (into supply zone) and be in this bear flag territory. This could be a BIG BULL TRAP. Beware as we head into FOMC Fed Meeting next week. I would not swing long into resistance under these circumstances. Can it break out above? YES. Do I think it will? NO. Only time will tell.
AMEX:SPYShort
by ChaldeaCode
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: lets review our expectation published yesterday: "I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target." Update: there is not much to update as the price action followed our count perfectly. Potential targets for wave X top (~4040): 1) Wave X: 4018 and 4049.75 2) Wave C: 4034.75 3) Wave (V): 4042.5 4) Wave c: 4043
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: first of all, my triangle count was invalidated today. However, it was not unexpected in our plan as stated on July 16th review: "please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area." Update: I am now considering wave X as a flat. Waves (I) and (II) have been completed, with wave (III) currently in play. I see wave X reaching the top of the bullish channel (blue lines) as a potential target.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: lets review my yesterday update: "I am considering the same scenario: triangle as x of X. Leg (d) is near completion, what follows is leg (e) to the 3740 support zone. Then, we will have the rally as wave y of X." and "You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area." Update: today's price action perfectly matched our expectation. Nice rejection at the downward trendline and then a powerful bearish move to the 3820 area. You can see the hourly count on the chart and what I expect to happen from this point moving forward.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
ES Daily Harmonic Elliott Wave AnalysisHi traders, Overview: In this weekend review, I am going through a summery of my thinking process and analysis since June 17th: June 17th: "I see us completing wave Y (second zigzag ) soon, most probably by end of today. What comes next is another wave X and then the third zigzag , Z to the actual market bottom." June 24th: "We can consider several different targets for this wave X such as 4170 range or 4300 range. For now, I am considering it as a zigzag development, but it can be developed in any kind of corrective structures." The reason that I was initially considering a zigzag formation for the current X wave was that the previous wave X (Jan 24-March 29) developed as a flat (sideways action). June 28th: "We started thinking that wave X is developing as a double or triple zigzag , which is still a valid point. However, the subwaves of this X wave developed in a different way than we anticipated." July 11th: "After careful consideration of structure, I am now considering a different scenario. I think wave x of X is still in process and not yet complete. It is developing as a triangle and its waves (a) and (b) have been completed. Please note that there are other scenarios possible, but this is the most probable one in my opinion." Update: I am considering the same scenario: triangle as x of X. Leg (d) is near completion, what follows is leg (e) to the 3740 support zone. Then, we will have the rally as wave y of X. Important Note: please remember the most important point is to catch the daily move in the right direction, while my general perspective has been generally accurate. Even if my triangle count is invalidated, the other possibility is that wave X is a flat. So, we are in leg c of flat right now, completing its wave 1, and then what follows is wave 2. You can see that in both counts, we expect a pullback to at least 3800 area.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by bamdadsalarieh
(SPY) Triple Top FormingThe SPY chart is forming a beautiful triple top pattern, and with the up coming FED rate hike and (-) Q2 GDP data confirming a technical recession releasing July 28th. I believe that the triple top will be completed around the 29th of this month, and the SPY will drop to the bottom of the overall trend line at around $360. Also in this chart you can see that the SPY has strong resistance at the $390 price range and rejects hard back to support roughly at $370. Let me know what you guys think in the comments.
AMEX:SPYShort
by markriah22
2
SPY breakout attempt Number 1Breakout attempts can happen without any triggers but when a trigger appears and coincides with market bottom, then there is an agreement and slight trading conviction that may be worth considering into the last half of the year. There is a daily wolfe wave setup that triggered on June 21 closing day at 3767.75. The projected target is calculated by extending a linear line between pivot 1 and 4 and projecting the line. This is represented as the green perforated line, as shown in the chart. The projected target is 4332 which is expected to reach this price target before Sept 30. Projected targets are defined by identifying the apex of the wolfe wave and projecting a vertical line toward the green perforated projection tgt which is extending from left to right.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by TOSOPTION