SPYIt's bear market territory whenever we see more than 20% retracement from ALL-TIME HIGH. The first retracement from an all-time high is always 33% (that's almost 320 for SPY)
I have made a technical analysis on how to play the bear market. The two red lines I have outlined can help traders when to short and when to go long. I'm going to swing shares of SPY (long/short).
Spy500
SPY Big Fed Rate Hike is Coming! If you haven`t noticed Jamie Dimon`s prediction:
Then you should know that The Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by a half of a percentage point for the second consecutive time on June 15.
More rate hikes are likely in the coming months because consumer prices rose 8.6% YoY through May.
Inflation is at 40 year high!
Jamie Dimon, the JPMorgan Chase CEO:
"Right now it's kind of sunny, things are doing fine. Everyone thinks the Fed can handle this." "That hurricane is right out there down the road coming our way." "We just don't know if it's a minor one or Superstorm Sandy. You better brace yourself."
Jamie Dimon is predicting an economic "hurricane" caused by rising inflation , interest rate hikes and the war in Ukraine.
If oil reaches $140 - 150 this year, then this is the strongest sign of a recession or if China invades Taiwan.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 10,2022
As CPI data will be released at 8:30 AM EST, tomorrow is a big day for traders and investors. Make sure not to trade on news or assumptions. Today we saw a massive sell-off at the end hour of the market trading session. There will be a bounce upward tomorrow for correction. The critical level of resistance, for now, is 405.18-405.71, and the main one is 407-408. I'm saying this because on multiple timeframes like 15m,30m,45,1hr, and 2hr, and RSI is sitting on 30, which means an oversold area. Don't get trapped in following the trend but wait for confirmation to short on the resistance area(to be on the safe side).
Moreover, looking at VIX, it got rejected at the resistance level of 26.25. If it breaks the resistance tomorrow, opening a short position might be a good idea. Another scenario is that it cools off in the area of 25.50 from their excellent idea to open a safe short position. This is just my opinion but looking at the sell-off volume was a sign of continuation of the sell-off.
$SPY rejecting 1D 55 ema and 4h 200emaAs the charts show, $SPY is rejecting 55ema on 1D and 4h 200ema on 4h. In addition to this, a lot of macro catalysts and headwinds are at play here with a quantitative tightening cycle beginning, the war between Ukraine and Russia, Monkeypox, Gun Violence, very high inflation, and the recession flags popping up everywhere in auto sales data for example. R/R favors the bears at this moment but it's still highly recommended to utilize upside hedges regardless of conviction due to the volatile and shaky price action we have been witnessing over the past few trading sessions especially.
$SPY clean backtest of 1W linear regression channel1W on $SPY is currently backtesting the linear regression channel support which now acts as resistance. Price still has not yet tested the 1W 200 ema which is highly likely to be tested if price fails to reclaim the linear regression channel support. Keeping a close eye
SPYSPY GAMEPLAN FOR JUNE 2,2022
Based on today's economic news:
ISM Manufacturing (Apr) 56.1 vs 54.5 Expected
JOLTS Job Openings (Apr) 11.4M vs 11.35M Expected
The market was up the first 30 minutes of the session, and then after the news, it got rejected on resistance and then bounced back from the support of 407. Also, keep in mind that vix is on a support level of 25.50. If 25 breaks market will go up. If not, SPY will make new lows.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
-Break below 407 can lead to 398-400
-Break above 413 to 416( I don't think so, but I can be wrong as well)
Monitoring $SPY for a potential reversal at the 4h 200emaThe 4h 200 ema has acted as an important pivot point on $SPY and this is the area where the R/R presents itself to favor short positions over long positions after an extended bullish rally over the past few trading sessions. Watching it closely!
SPYGAMEPLAN FOR MAY 31,2022
Soy is trying to reach the 430 area level as futures showed strength yesterday. ES touched $4200 seems a great possibility, but we need to see what happens on pre-market as always. Market sentiment can change.
Overall, the main thing to consider is that VIX is at support, and if VIX breaks, that support area market will see a massive jump to 430 areas. If not, then rejection will create a new low as basis points will increase and interest rates. Also, AAPL is on the resistance level of 150 area, which can make a sell-off if it gets rejected and if not, we will see spy 430 with the market remaining green.
Bitcoin BTC USD FRACTALS WORK! Bitcoin will MELT YOUR FACE! FactBitcoin is just getting warmed up in my opinion. I mean look at the charts when you compare fractals (human psychology/emotion) which usually always plays out, you'll see compared to the S&P that Bitcoin is only in the second impulse wave on higher degree of trend. I see Bitcoin going absolutely berserk over these next few years. You will see 1 million dollar Bitcoin if not 2 Million within maybe 5 years. Most of the other crap coins will dissolve and vanish and money will flow into the real cryptos and projects that are actually worth a damn and have actual real world use. This is not financial advice just my opinion, comment below and let me know what you think and follow me for more analysis. Thank you for checking out my chart, good luck out there.
SPY Channel Week in ReviewJust a follow up/review from last weekend's analysis on $SPY and a big part of our success is having a plan & knowing what to expect before it happens.
Just from the 2 basic Channels (using simple trendlines), you can see SPY was GREEN all 5 days last week. Spy hit the Intermediate Trendline last Friday (5/20) and bounced off there for an expected return to the upper (Minor) level...SPY closed above the descending channel on Wed, following the release of FOMC minutes. From there, we had Targets (white dotted lines) drawn at 405 / 411 / 415.15 / & 420.9. Thursday & Friday achieved the first 3 and these levels were simply drawn from previous key lows. Our next chart idea will actually overlay just 1 of our algo's data on the intraday SPY chart and show you how simple yet powerful are the levels.
$SPY Plan - Buy Puts and Be PatientThat's the plan for now. This is what I have mapped out for myself. Going to wait until it hits $430 (resistance) and buy puts with a strike price of $350 and expiration of June 20-Jun 25th and wait. Unless it really buckles and moves in another direction willing to wait and see how this plays out. Not financial advice, simply my journal.
Relief Rally?Hello Traders,
I will get straight to the point today. It looks like a bit of a reversal, or is it a bear market relief rally?
What I'm looking at:
If price moves above around 408.80-409.5 and keeps momentum, watch out for a gap up around 412.
This is likely a relief rally, and we are probably just reverting to back to the trend because we were QUITE a bit oversold, but we are seeing a low volume move upward. Like I said before to those who follow me here and elsewhere, the downtrend is weakening, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. This isn't like after COVID hit or March '09 (the month the Bull market was reborn), we LIKELY won't have a recovery like that without a catalyst (i.e. Ukraine war end, steep inflation drop, steep oil demand decline/supply increase -aka priced too high/Saudi production increase).
Technically speaking, we're hitting a small supply zone around 406 it might push back down a little then move upward to keep the trend pattern going.
Around 410.90 another Supply zone on the chart.
We don't hit the big ones until 417+ but I don't think it's likely we'll make it up that far.
I'm getting a little ahead in this prediction, but this is for preparation for my followers or anyone who needs a little guidance.
Cheers,
Mike
(UPRIGHT Trading)