SPY Game Plan for May 13, 2022
Make sure to observe the 392.50 area as spy resistance for now. If that resistance breaks, we must wait and have patience, then go long and never chase. Overall, spy daily RSI at 30. Significant consideration note to take. But still, plenty of room to go down as RSI is calculated and first, down to 30 can be a fakeout, then 50, fall again back to 30 RSI, which means price movement will be way different and can go down far beyond imagination.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
First one: Observe the market from 7:00 am-9:30 am EST. If we see a sell of pre-market, then for sure, on market hours, we can touch the resistance of 392.50. then back down again.
Second: If the resistance gets destroyed, wait for the cool off previous resistance to become support and go long from 392-394.
OPTIONS
Look at May 20, 2022, 380 puts if 392.50 area gets rejected and go long when resistance gets denied, then play with May 20, 2022, 405 calls.
Spy500
SHORT | SPYAMEX:SPY
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Price Action, Bearish Catalysts, Inflation and FED new policy, Geo-Political conflicts between Russia-Ukraine, H&S pattern on Weekly chart.
TP1: 420$
TP2: 400$
*Instead of SPY PUT options, I prefer short positions in AAPL, MSFT the premiums are still cheap if you compare it with indices.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%
SPY 2008 dailys vs current daily with Burry tweet bout Nadir 180Two questions I had:
how low will this go? I have no idea, so I used Burry's tweet suggestion.
how many years will it take to recover SPY to the current level? I have no idea, so stretched out the pattern based on Burry's tweet suggestion.
I still suck at charting, so don't use this. I actually thought we had one more last bounce, but looks like it's already dropping already.
For this chart:
I took a bigger picture view (curious how long it took for 2008 crash to recover to the same level as current pattern.
Biggest assumption here is using Burry's recent tweet, which said something about Nadir being 10% below the most recent market crash.'
The most recent crash was March 23 2020 (wonderful Covid lockdown times) when Spy was about 220 to 230
So 10-15% below (based on Burry's hypothesis) puts the bottom around 180.
So, I used the same bars pattern to make the very bottom at 180, and then it gave the timeframe.
Don't trade on this, it's just a hypothesis/theory, and I still am new to charting.
SPY 2008 dailys vs current daily with Burry tweet bout Nadir 180I still suck at charting, so don't use this. I actually thought we had one more last bounce, but looks like it's already dropping already.
For this chart:
I took a bigger picture view (curious how long it took for 2008 crash to recover to the same level as current pattern.
Biggest assumption here is using Burry's recent tweet, which said something about Nadir being 10% below the most recent market crash.'
The most recent crash was March 23 2020 (wonderful Covid times) when Spy was about 220 to 230
So 10-15% below (based on his hypothesis) puts the bottom around 180.
So, I used the same bars pattern to make the very bottom at 180, and then it gave the timeframe.
Don't trade on this, it's just a hypothesis/theory, and I still am new to charting.
DXY, And general market view [11May2022]Hello, I've been gone for some time now. busy with my job and backtesting and improving our code. Suffice to say, we saw a massive improvement in our backtest and also ability to capture psuedo-macro cycles, pretty stoked about that. Let's get over the boring stuff.
Our algo was pretty efficient at capturing dollar moves and as of today, dollar (DXY) became green again.
It had consolidation period for last week and current upper range is 106, which is pretty massive. Either the code is bugged or we are in for some pain.
When DXY is making these big moves, the associated pairs such as EURUSD and USDJPY are also showing some incoming big moves.
1. EURUSD is bearish short term and long term, and currently at the top end of its today's range
2. USDJPY is bullish short term and long term, currently almost at the low end of its today's range, but volatility is still a bit high for y liking's
3. USDMXN however is mild bearish, probably MXN still remains as one of the safe haven like in the 90s? I don't know, but I will not be buying USD against MXN
4. Micron (MU), our analyst actually likes this a lot, but currently it has a strong short term bearish trend to 62, short it if you want.
5. JD.com is short term bearish and long term bearish too
6. SPY and QQQ are also bearish at the moment, expect a bounce or a straight up drop. I will not be touching them for now
7. Crude oil is bullish at the moment with top end at 115 and low at 92, do with that what you will.
We have few more ideas for today, I'm just lazy to type them.
If you want some insight on our crypto plan, please hit follow I will be posting our idea for crypto for this year soon.
$SPY April 2022 CPI data are scheduled to be released on 5112022The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SCENARIO 2 FOR A POLKADOT BOTTOMPls visit our last Polkadot analysis for better context.
As we know DOT was inside an ascending triangle pattern ( bullish ), however price has fallen out of that pattern for a much larger wave 2 correction.
Should price fail to close back inside the triangle and i think it wil fail due to bitcoin's vacation, we will have ourselves in play, a regular flat correction for wave 2, comprising of a large ABC correction with the C wave being a 5 way impulse move marking a 100% retracement of our Wave AB and aligns perfectly with the downward trend channel price seems to have created.
Make sure to apply proper risk management.
Goodluck
SPYSPY is trying hard to go up as it bounces back from the support and has seen the 405 level twice. This area should be considered in high demand for now. Looking at the futures right now, they are already down -0.50%.
Two more things to consider:
1. MACD is trying to cool off as well with RSI.
2. If we see a bounce back from here and break the downtrend, we might see a reversal, but if the 425-430 area gets destroyed.
I'm going to play with calls tomorrow because on May 11, there might be a sell-off considering the CPI report.
SPYToday, we saw a massive sell-off after yesterday's massive rally, but there was an enormous volume at the end of the 15 minutes of the trading session. I see two scenarios tomorrow.
Scenario 1- we might see a dump at the beginning and then upward correction in which the spy will touch the 417-418 area and then back down again.
Scenario 2- We might see a sideway trend as well. 417-418 area, then back down to 410-411 area.
I'm bearish here because the pump didn't last even for a day and nobody bought the dip today. I'm looking for a 340-360 area to go long.
MAy 5,2022 SPY Game plan Yesterday's game plan went fantastic. We are officially in an uptrend (short term) minor correction of a downtrend. We can see a dip at the opening as it needs to cool off for the next leg up. Drips I'm looking at, the levels are 425.66-425.95; if this one slides, then will see 421.78- 422.56. Volume was there, and we saw a massive rally at the end of the day. Make sure you are on the right side of the market. Shorting here should be considered high risk and if you want to short, wait for the trend to break. Playing with calls tomorrow can be fun but make sure to look at the trend always. For now, we are incredibly bullish.
$SPYThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
$SPYThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
$SPY on 4hr Analysis of a Bounce$SPY on 4hr Analysis of a Bounce
$SPY has been fluxuating today and retracing back to a $410 range.
From a previous date of an $410 range, on Feb.24th $SPY Bounced around $28 DOLLARS by next day, do you think that time is repeating itself for tomorrow?
$SPY today -May 2nd, already bounced $10 dollars to the upside from a low of $405.02
What are your thoughts?
Thanks,
Kelly
The Frightening Similarity between the SPY in 2008 vs 2022! 😨Hey everyone!
Almost 1:1 fractal between the crash in 2008 and today.
The scales have almost tipped. Stay ready.
Just remember, be fearful when people are greedy and be greedy when people are fearful. It seems to me that many believe that the bull run is not over. Interest rates are increasing to counter inflation. Interest rate hikes slow down the economy. We are almost there.
✌️ Seb
$SPY on 15min : Bullish Trajectory next week$SPY on 15min Trajectory upside next week
It has been an interesting week with spy fluctuating all over the place.
With today's red day, I anticipate #SPY to retrace back to 423s + after retesting if it can hold the 422s level.
Not financial advice. I see a bounce happening like it has happened as indicated several times before.
Get your further out calls ready IMO. :)
What are your thoughts?
Thanks,
Kelly
SPY/SPX BARELY HANGING ONAMEX:SPY SP:SPX
whats up guys hope everyone is having a good week.
was having some technical difficulties earlier this week so wasn't able to post any updates so I decided to do a bit of a deep dive into SPY and take a look at all time frames. primarily at the daily and weekly.
for the SPY I believe we must hold 415 for us to see any type of reversal to the upside. if we get a daily close below that level i think we could see accelerated selling all the way down to around the 400 level.
i also go over the weekly chart for SPX and showed my short idea on the weekly which so far is playing out nicely. in that analysis you can see the long term price target for the downside correction is around 3500
short term i could see a reversal to the upside as long as earnings are decent which so far they have been imo.
when deciding if im bearish or bullish...i am seeing more bearish tendencies in the market than bullish tendencies so i am going to have to continue with the short idea. specifically for the weekly.
let me know what you guys think. exciting market conditions if you ask me.
thanks everyone!
happy trading
mindset matters