Spy500
Monitoring $SPY for a potential reversal at the 4h 200emaThe 4h 200 ema has acted as an important pivot point on $SPY and this is the area where the R/R presents itself to favor short positions over long positions after an extended bullish rally over the past few trading sessions. Watching it closely!
SPYGAMEPLAN FOR MAY 31,2022
Soy is trying to reach the 430 area level as futures showed strength yesterday. ES touched $4200 seems a great possibility, but we need to see what happens on pre-market as always. Market sentiment can change.
Overall, the main thing to consider is that VIX is at support, and if VIX breaks, that support area market will see a massive jump to 430 areas. If not, then rejection will create a new low as basis points will increase and interest rates. Also, AAPL is on the resistance level of 150 area, which can make a sell-off if it gets rejected and if not, we will see spy 430 with the market remaining green.
Bitcoin BTC USD FRACTALS WORK! Bitcoin will MELT YOUR FACE! FactBitcoin is just getting warmed up in my opinion. I mean look at the charts when you compare fractals (human psychology/emotion) which usually always plays out, you'll see compared to the S&P that Bitcoin is only in the second impulse wave on higher degree of trend. I see Bitcoin going absolutely berserk over these next few years. You will see 1 million dollar Bitcoin if not 2 Million within maybe 5 years. Most of the other crap coins will dissolve and vanish and money will flow into the real cryptos and projects that are actually worth a damn and have actual real world use. This is not financial advice just my opinion, comment below and let me know what you think and follow me for more analysis. Thank you for checking out my chart, good luck out there.
SPY Channel Week in ReviewJust a follow up/review from last weekend's analysis on $SPY and a big part of our success is having a plan & knowing what to expect before it happens.
Just from the 2 basic Channels (using simple trendlines), you can see SPY was GREEN all 5 days last week. Spy hit the Intermediate Trendline last Friday (5/20) and bounced off there for an expected return to the upper (Minor) level...SPY closed above the descending channel on Wed, following the release of FOMC minutes. From there, we had Targets (white dotted lines) drawn at 405 / 411 / 415.15 / & 420.9. Thursday & Friday achieved the first 3 and these levels were simply drawn from previous key lows. Our next chart idea will actually overlay just 1 of our algo's data on the intraday SPY chart and show you how simple yet powerful are the levels.
$SPY Plan - Buy Puts and Be PatientThat's the plan for now. This is what I have mapped out for myself. Going to wait until it hits $430 (resistance) and buy puts with a strike price of $350 and expiration of June 20-Jun 25th and wait. Unless it really buckles and moves in another direction willing to wait and see how this plays out. Not financial advice, simply my journal.
Relief Rally?Hello Traders,
I will get straight to the point today. It looks like a bit of a reversal, or is it a bear market relief rally?
What I'm looking at:
If price moves above around 408.80-409.5 and keeps momentum, watch out for a gap up around 412.
This is likely a relief rally, and we are probably just reverting to back to the trend because we were QUITE a bit oversold, but we are seeing a low volume move upward. Like I said before to those who follow me here and elsewhere, the downtrend is weakening, but lets not get ahead of ourselves. This isn't like after COVID hit or March '09 (the month the Bull market was reborn), we LIKELY won't have a recovery like that without a catalyst (i.e. Ukraine war end, steep inflation drop, steep oil demand decline/supply increase -aka priced too high/Saudi production increase).
Technically speaking, we're hitting a small supply zone around 406 it might push back down a little then move upward to keep the trend pattern going.
Around 410.90 another Supply zone on the chart.
We don't hit the big ones until 417+ but I don't think it's likely we'll make it up that far.
I'm getting a little ahead in this prediction, but this is for preparation for my followers or anyone who needs a little guidance.
Cheers,
Mike
(UPRIGHT Trading)
$SPX: Meltup to $6k in 2022?? No, Meltdown: $2.7k-$3.5k There's been a lot of people that have been conditioned to buy the dip over the last two years, because every time that's happened, it's led to higher prices. There's people making bold calls that after this "small dip" we're going to turn around and meltup to $6k. I don't buy it.
Looking at the structure of the chart, price action already looks bearish on lower timeframes but is starting to show bearish signs on higher timeframes (both the 2W and 1M timeframes). We just broke down out of this large upward channel, Heikin Ashi candles are showing a bearish trend forming on high timeframes and ichimoku is showing a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun on the monthly timeframe indicating that price needs to snap back to find a balance. 3 indications to me that price is going to move much further down.
If you were to look at historical price action on this chart, you'd see that anytime there's been a wide separation of the tenkan and kijun, price as retraced. The widest separation came before the March 2020 crash. The spread between the two lines now is far greater than during that period indicating to me that the snap back down could be a violent one.
My base case is that we fall somewhere between 20%-40% from these levels before continuing a move to the upside. I think this downside move is likely to take place this year 2022, and that we will bottom either later this year or in Q1 in next year.
I've marked out key months for pivots in price action on the chart. Will update my views if I see things change.
$SPYThe investment seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The Trust seeks to achieve its investment objective by holding a portfolio of the common stocks that are included in the index (the "Portfolio"), with the weight of each stock in the Portfolio substantially corresponding to the weight of such stock in the index.
SPY Game Plan for May 13, 2022
Make sure to observe the 392.50 area as spy resistance for now. If that resistance breaks, we must wait and have patience, then go long and never chase. Overall, spy daily RSI at 30. Significant consideration note to take. But still, plenty of room to go down as RSI is calculated and first, down to 30 can be a fakeout, then 50, fall again back to 30 RSI, which means price movement will be way different and can go down far beyond imagination.
Two Scenario for tomorrow:
First one: Observe the market from 7:00 am-9:30 am EST. If we see a sell of pre-market, then for sure, on market hours, we can touch the resistance of 392.50. then back down again.
Second: If the resistance gets destroyed, wait for the cool off previous resistance to become support and go long from 392-394.
OPTIONS
Look at May 20, 2022, 380 puts if 392.50 area gets rejected and go long when resistance gets denied, then play with May 20, 2022, 405 calls.
SHORT | SPYAMEX:SPY
Possible Scenario: SHORT
Evidence: Price Action, Bearish Catalysts, Inflation and FED new policy, Geo-Political conflicts between Russia-Ukraine, H&S pattern on Weekly chart.
TP1: 420$
TP2: 400$
*Instead of SPY PUT options, I prefer short positions in AAPL, MSFT the premiums are still cheap if you compare it with indices.
*This is my idea and could be wrong 100%