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SPY the Bulls Are Back In Town...Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. I just wanted to shoot a quick update for anyone a little shaken by the market or confused as to what's going on. TLDR: Yes, there are still geopolitical concerns, but at the moment it's not important to the market, because we've already seen the response of the world and it has strengthened relations of NATO and basically blocked off Russia from World Trade and Financially. The Market's prefer hikes over inflation, and technical trading signals are still nearly perfect (as seen in above and below charts). So we have our answer as to who's economy is really likely to crash. Although the US would like to help more, there are limitations as to what we (the US) and other countries can do without sparking a Cold War or WW3, so the markets are pretty content that everyone is threading that needle. Now, why did the market bounce off the fed announcements? Many people without context assume that tapering and rate hikes are a bad thing for the markets; their thought process is that it makes valuations less attractive, due to more difficult borrowing for companies and consumers... This idea isn't wrong, it's just that they're missing a few pieces of information in that logic. First, the markets like policy that are good for the overall economy. Tapering and hikes will help fight inflation; monetary tightening is a signal that the Fed believes the economy is on firm footing. That is a good thing. The market easily prefers hikes over inflation worries. Second, historically, while stocks tend to fall the month following rate hikes, they typically end the year up around 5%. Lastly, there is progress on the geopolitical front. The World has condemned Russia's leader's actions; as we see a constructive movement in negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, signs from China that it will roll back its broad regulatory crackdown and play a little nicer with the rest of the world. We do also predict gas prices to continue in a downward spiral and fall substantially in the coming months due to the panic buying subsiding, along with other geopolitical and psychological factors, which need not go into too much detail on. (It's important to note for those unfamiliar, the US is the #1 producer of crude oil, with about 20% of global supply, Saudis at around 12%, Russia 11%, and Canada at 6%). As such, the US is not reliant on Russia for oil; unfortunately, some of our allies are, to some extent. The Chart As a technical trader, that was a lot of fundamental analysis. Sometimes it's good to have both, especially when catalysts are often the driver on big movers. As I mentioned in my previous posts, technical trading has been on-point. Almost to the penny. On Weds, March 16th, SPY gapped up, perhaps on the positive geopolitical news mentioned. Now we're sitting on a trend reversal and (yet again) a retest of the 200MA. Honestly, I think we will hang around the 200MA even if we do break to the upside, at least for a month or two as I had predicted back in January (see below) . Please see for references. January. If you appreciated this please: Like, support, share, follow. Sincerely, Mike (UPRIGHT Trading)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
4
THE STOCK MARKET IS BULLISH AGAIN... For now!Hey guys, Utilising the S&P500, we can determine a very bullish response the Fed Funds Rate increase of 25 basis points. Jeremy Powell ensured the US to have a very strong economy and labour market which has placed trust in the overall stock market. Have we seen the top of the market or will we be seeing another high to be made? I believe if we see another high, it will be 'fakeout' move to grab upper side liquidity, followed by a large push back to the downside. It seems absurd to me that the market can continue to make high highs with 7.9% inflation and interest rates of 0.25% coupled with insane oil/gas prices and supply chain disturbances. Not to mention the national debt and conflicts between Russia and the rest of the world. I will do a post shortly on the business cycles and show why the Euphoric gains are now over. Love, peace, Seb.
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SXTrading
IBOVNow sucking up to my country. We have an index doing better than SPY! After we have broken through this lower channel, we come back to the surface. We are practically already activating a bullish pivot, we now need confirmation. Entering the fundamentalist part. Countries from abroad are coming to invest in our Brazil index as our index is doing better than others. DISCLAIMER: Please note that my studies portray my personal opinion only and should be considered for educational purposes only. They should not be considered as a recommendation to buy or sell an asset! I am not responsible for any damages to your capital. Your capital is at risk in the equity market.
BMFBOVESPA:IBOVLong
by DuhNT
SPY Update! Looking attractive here. The trend is a good friend.SPY had been on this strong up trend since the COVID plummet in March 2020. On this chart you can see how it broke the regression trend to the downside. How low... can you go...? Notable things to watch: - The gap that MAY! fill at $400 that can be seen on the daily & weekly time frames. - FOMC this week; for shits n' giggles. - Short term outlook - on the Daily time frame the 200 sma (in red) is sitting in the $400 area where the gap MAY! fill. - Long term outlook - on the weekly time frame you can see that the 200sma (in red) is coming up on the 61.80% ($318.17). (chart attached below) Just ride the trend & enjoy the ride but use proper risk management. Its all about the journey & the mulah is a by product of it all. This is not financial advice. This is to be taken as my opinion only!
AMEX:SPYShort
by AnthonyGarciaEth
SPY in 200ma retest today as predicted.Hello Traders - This will be an important day for technical traders. We need to see what happens with the price action around the 200ma before we can make a truly educated technical analysis, in my opinion. A lot of analysis, appear to be skipping ahead.. Unless they saw a pattern or are using more of a historical data technical analysis--are really just guessing. I saw a lot of these doom and gloom predictions make the front page and didn't see any of them mention a retest of the 200ma except one in the comments after... I guess sensationalism gets the most eyes, right? Looking at you @TradingView "editor choice." ;) I hope everyone is having a great day! Cheers, Mike (UPRIGHT TRADING)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading
$SPY not looking good. Hello Traders, I hope you all are doing well. Notice the Head & Shoulder pattern on the chart. Good for Shorts though. If this H&S plays out we could see a significant drop, up to 6-10% from current levels. However, if there is some throwback on Monday, we could see a much weaker pullback. As I mention in the chart: If 431.25-431.75 support holds,we could see some throwback. Thus, weakening the pattern. Either way, it doesn't look good. Everyone's saying "Putin's got Puts" on the market, well maybe so; I mentioned in my previous post that geopolitics hadn't yet been factored in, well now they are starting to. I would like to note, although geopolitics can affect the markets... In what we are seeing currently, the largest disruption would only be from 2 things: uncertainty (markets don't like) and potential disruption in crude oil distribution to our allies, which could be a good thing if you're bullish on gas/oil prices (bad for inflation). Now is a great time to remember to practice good risk management. It'd be reckless to go all in on either side of the bull/bear coin, so as always.. know your levels, entry, exit, and stick to your strategy and rules . Cheers, Mike (UPRIGHT TRADING)
AMEX:SPY
by UPRIGHTTrading