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Spy500

SPY Bullish CaseWe all know what they do best - print like there is no tomorrow. If 430 level hold and is bought, we will get out rally. Every guru and their subs are long to their teeth. There is cash on the sidelines. If that cash sees this as a double bottom buy the dip opportunity - to the moon we go. If this dip is not bought, look out below. 2hr shows a death cross (when 50MA crosses 200MA), 3hr is approaching a cross. 4 hr looks like a double bottom. Daily we are sitting pretty on 50MA. Short term time frames dont matter as much as long term timeframes. I am still eyeing 410-420 level but will change my mind if I see aggressive buying action today. At the end of the day, you are the one clicking buttons and making decisions for yourself. Today will not matter so stop trading and pick long term strategies, use intraday activity to help your conviction.
AMEX:SPY
by bossmodetrader
Warning Signals S&P500 SPX500 SPX DJI DJT - Macro Analysis🚨We are nearing a Dow-Sell-Signal acc. to the new Dow-Theory🚨 We had a drop of more than 3% S&P and Dow which is causing a secondary reaction. If the S&P stays below $4400 the secondary reaction is confirmed. This is the FIRST step acc. to the Dow-Theory system by Jack Schannep! The economy is still in a major post-pandemic depression and many S&P500 companies are not profitable anymore! FED has pumped up the stock market artificially with free funny money that it has even broken above a resistance trend-line (cyan line) which exists since 1936 and at the same time the Buffet indicator indicates an extreme overvalued sell signal! Also the Wave Trend Oscillator, MACD and StochRSI has crossed bearish at 2W TF & 3W TF recently which means that bullish momentum is exhausted and that we are at a tipping point right now. Basically it was a bullish signal that the $SPX has broken through the resistance trend-line (cyan line) but I think this was just a so called "overthrow" or "fake out"! Since May 2021 we have a divergence between the Dow-Jones and the Dow transportation average which is a disconfirmation of the stock bull market. SMI (smart money indicator) shows that smart money is scaling out for months now (not shown on chart). Furthermore, sentiment signals also indicated very rare warning signals. For instance, Jason Goepfert's (sentiment-trader) indicators flashed rare warning signals recently, which means that there is a high spread between bear market probability and macro index models. Last time Jason´s sentiment indicator showed such a high spread was 14 years ago! Also Robert Prechter's Bear Market Prediction (Macro Elliott Wave Analysis with Fibonacci-Cycles) is confirming that we are nearing the end of a major stock bull market soon. Ray Dalio´s debt cycle model (Short & Long-Term Debt-Cycles) is also indicating that we are on the verge of a serve debt crisis which will cause a major post-pandemic depression similar to 1929. Currently the consensus (the herd) is thinking that we are currently in a high inflationary environment, but this was just a temporary spike in inflation rate which is currently at a dipping point. A deflationary shock will come sooner or later but an accurate predication when this will happen is impossible. When the debt bubble implodes (credit crunch) there will be high deflation also when it could be short-lived (economic depressions are usually deflationary). Also smart-money is betting on deflation which is anticipated in the recent raise of bond prices. At the end of the debt cycle central banks will expand the money supply even further (more money printing) which could cause high inflation but this also depends on factors like velocity of money and on the credit supply. For instance Japan is in a depression for approximately 30 years and there is still no high inflation due to manipulation with negative interest rate policy (NIRP). However, you should know that in the background the elite has already established plans for the great reset which will force everyone to transition into a new monetary system. Banks and other financial institutions will use “Ice-Nine freezes” to get your money! Be prepared and have CASH on the sidelines. This could get very ugly! Of course these major stock market signals also have negative impact on cryptos as well... We recommend to accumulate gold and silver during the deflationary shock. Also US treasury bonds usually are a good investment in a low-interest rate environment (=raising bond prices). A deflationary shock will be a very good opportunity :-) Disclaimer! I´m not a financial adviser. For educational purpose only! You can use the information from the post to make your own trading decisions. Trading is risky, and it is not suitable for everyone. Only you can be responsible for your trading.
SP:SPXShort
by Asset-Ethology
1
SPX touched the 200 EMA on 4h and got rejected. Time to go up!SP:SPX had a solid retracement today and while the situation may seem bearish on smaller time frames, if we switch to the 4h time frame we can clearly see that technical analysis suggests we are still in a bullish trend. A rejection happened at the support level of 200 EMA. Last time SP:SPX broke the 200 EMA support level was in February 2020, just before the first covid lockdowns happened. As long as SP:SPX holds the support level, we're going up from here!
SP:SPXLong
by Ganbu
8
SPY 500 Price Target PredictionHere is the Price Target we will most likely in Monday - Wednesday. 50 Day Moving Average is creating support for the downtrend, and once the price dips right below it, it bounces back up. 50 DMA is expected to be around 441.50 and the lowest price we should reach is 439.50 - 441.50. If we take a look at the Short Squeeze Momentum Graph, we can see that we are in the red levels, which means we should expect red in the coming days until we reach green. Also, we hit four negative days in a row going into five. If we go into five which we most likely will, it will be a first time in 6 months we hit five consecutive days going negative. If we take a look into the RSI, 2 Hour Graph, we can see that it's almost oversold, we should expect the RSI to hit 20-25 considering this is allegedly the most volatile month of the year in the Stock Market. Once it hits the oversold levels below 30 going into the low-mid 20's, we should expect a huge bounce probably to the overbought levels. As for the actual chart, it's hard to say this but, if we do, theoretically bounce on Monday which we probably won't, we may create a Head and Shoulders pattern. If we take look at the chart and focus from August 23rd to now, we can see that it already formed a shoulder, and it already formed a head. If we bounce on Monday, we will most likely form another shoulder and should see a huge sell off. AMEX:SPY
AMEX:SPY
by Poseidan
US Market Technicals Ahead (9 August – 13 August 2021)With U.S. CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) reversing its stance on mask for vaccinated people amid the resurgence of the coronavirus pandemic, Investors will be watching closely on the main U.S. economic data reports on consumer and producer price inflation for any potential scale back of stimulus by the Federal Reserve. Several Fed officials are slated to speak during the week and their comments could help clarify the Fed’s position on tapering. Earnings will continue but will be fewer in number as earnings season winds down. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The US market ended at all time highs on Friday, after monthly U.S. jobs report came in better than expected, as the economy continues to navigate out from the COVID-19 pandemic. The benchmark index $SPX ended the week gaining +0.79% (+34.9 points), closing at 4,438 level. $SPX remains above its multi-month long trend channel that was earlier highlighted. Every break out of $SPX trend channel resistance has been met with a rejection (6 times since 2021). It is also important to note of the diminishing volume observed, reflecting a short term price-volume divergence in this run up. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is revised up to 4,370 level; a breakdown of two weeks price support. Inflation numbers The U.S. consumer price index and the producer price index released Wednesday and Thursday, respectively will provide an insight into the current pace of inflation, one of the key factors along with the labor market, that the Fed looks at when making its monetary policy decisions. CPI is expected to moderate slightly after last month’s jump of 0.9%, the strongest gain since June 2008. The Fed has said the current surge in inflation is just temporary, but market sentiment has been hit by fears of higher inflation resulting in a sudden tapering. Friday’s stronger-than-expected nonfarm payrolls report was the last before the Fed gathers for its annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of the month to discuss policy and decide future stimulus strategy. The upbeat jobs numbers coupled with uncomfortably hot inflation data could prompt Fed officials to announce plans to begin tapering bond purchases as soon as September, the first step down the road to eventual interest rate hikes. Earnings wind down Earnings will continue in the coming week, but the number of companies reporting will tail off as earnings season continues to wind down. Some of the names reporting include AMC Entertainment ($AMC), Coinbase Global Inc ($COIN), Sysco ($SYY), Chesapeake Energy ($CHK), eBay ($EBAY), Wendy’s ($WEN), Lordstown Motors ($RIDE), Walt Disney ($DIS) and Airbnb ($ABNB). It has been a stellar earnings season – out of the 427 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported earnings so far, 87.6% beat analyst expectations, the highest on record. Bitcoin higher as sentiment recovers Bitcoin rose to its highest level in two months on Sunday as market sentiment recovered but remined fragile. The digital currency hit $45,284, its highest since mid-June. One area of uncertainty for crypto investors is the U.S. infrastructure bill currently making its way through Congress, which contains a cryptocurrency tax provision, tacked on at the last minute.
U
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (2 August – 6 August 2021All eyes turn to the US July jobs report due this Friday, with investors on the watch for any catalysts that could encourage the Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy sooner. Earnings will continue to dominate headlines, with more than a quarter of S&P 500 companies set to report this week. Berkshire Hathaway ($BRK.A), General Motors ($GM) and Uber ($UBER) are the headlining companies due to report their quarterly result. The crackdown by Chinese market regulators could continue to be a major story and in the UK the Bank of England is to hold its latest policy meeting where it is likely to echo the Fed’s view that there is still some way to go before stimulus can be reduced. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX ended the week with a muted -0.10% (-4.3 points), closing near its peak at 4,400 level. $SPX remains above its multi-month long trend channel that was earlier highlighted. Every break out of $SPX trend channel resistance has been met with a rejection (6 times since 2021). The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is revised up to 4,310 level; the 50DMA short term support level, along with a 75% retracement within its trend channel. July jobs report Friday’s U.S. non-farm payrolls report will provide fresh clues on the strength of the economic recovery and inform the outlook for Fed policymakers. Economists are expecting the economy to have added 900,000 jobs in July after a forecast-beating 850,000 in June. Last week Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the job market still had “some ground to cover” before it would be time to start scaling back stimulus measures the central bank enacted in the spring of 2020 to combat the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. In June Fed officials began debating how to wind down bond purchases but there is no clear timetable yet for when it will begin pulling back emergency market support measures. Earnings Investors will get a fresh batch of earnings reports in the week ahead from companies such as Eli Lilly ($LLY), CVS Health ($CVS) and General Motors ($GM). Expectations of strong future earnings have been the key driver of the S&P 500’s gains this year, according to a Credit Suisse analysis of the index’s year-to-date performance that compared change in stock valuations with changes in expected earnings. U.S. stocks fell on Friday and registered losses for the week as Amazon ($AMZN) shares dropped after the company forecast lower sales growth, but the S&P 500 still notched a sixth straight month of gains. China crackdown China’s recent regulatory crackdown has frightened investors away from Chinese stocks and left tech companies operating in an uncertain environment. China has been tightening its regulatory grip on overseas share issuance after it launched a probe of ride-hailing giant Didi Global last month, just days after its listing in New York. Following a sharp selloff authorities moved to calm market jitters which put a floor under stocks and the yuan, for now. In the coming week investors will be looking to Chinese PMI data amid growing concerns over a slowdown in the world’s second largest economy, which could be the next test for markets. Bank of England meeting The Bank of England is expected to keep stimulus running at its current pace when it meets on Thursday, despite some disagreement among policymakers over the size of its bond-buying program against a background of rising inflation and an improving economy. Officials are likely to raise their inflation forecast for this year, but the outlook for growth remains uncertain amid concerns over the delta variant.
UShort
by jfsrevg
S&P 500: Correction started?The S&P 500 was able to extend its rally slightly to a new record high of 4,394 points. There it encountered the rising containment line along the highs of April 16 and May 7. This offered a welcome opportunity for profit-taking, which gained significantly in momentum at the start of the week. So far on a seasonal course So far, the index has stuck to our preferred schedule of a weak phase starting in mid or late July in line with the typical seasonal pattern. Overbought technical market indicators, a conspicuously weak market breadth and euphoric sentiment spoke in favor of this medium-term bearish scenario. The price is now testing the support area at 4,240 / 4,258 points, which results from the last intermediate high and the 50-day line. A day close below that would provide confirmation of the favored correction with the next target range of 4,164 points. Below that, there would be downside potential in the direction of 4,057 points. Chances of a rebound The extremely oversold situation for a very short time allows a technical recovery from the current support. We see potential recovery goals at 4,289 points and 4,323-4,341 points. Only then would the short-term chart brighten up and a timely renewed test of the record high at 4,394 points would likely. Note: Despite careful analysis, Global Investa does not accept any liability for the content, topicality, correctness or completeness of the information provided. The information provided does not constitute investment advice, purchase recommendations or investment brokerage.
SP:SPX
by Michael-Neubauer
US Market Technicals Ahead (19 July – 23 July 2021)Despite solid results last week as earnings season ramped up, investors have been shifting their focus to data releases with global economic growth beginning to show signs of fatigue while many countries, particularly in Asia that are struggling to curb the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. The spectre of elevated inflation, which the market has long feared, is also haunting investors. Treasury yields were plunging, signaling fearful investors are padding their portfolios with Treasuries. The second-quarter earnings continues this week, with companies such as IBM ($IBM), Netflix ($NFLX), Intel ($INTC), Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ) and Twitter ($TWTR) reporting their results. Other key data to follow include: US building permits and housing starts. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index $SPX corrected -0.99% (-43.2 points) to close at 4,328 level during the week, and perceived safe haven assets, including the yen and gold, edged higher amid fears of rising inflation and a surge in coronavirus cases, while oil prices fell on oversupply worries. The initial break out of $SPX trend channel resistance is met with rejection for its 3rd time as cautioned in the previous week. The channel support is currently priced at 4,240 level, -2% away from existing level. The immediate support to watch for $SPX this week is at 4,285 level; an immediate break of support level established this month.
U
by jfsrevg