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Spy500

S&P500 ETF Trust (SPY) Fell 0.55% Today is the Bullish Run Over?Economic indicators are crucial for policymakers, advisors, investors, and businesses to make informed decisions regarding business strategies and financial markets. In the week ending May 23, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell 0.52%, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) was down 1.75%. This article examines three indicators from last week — existing home sales, new home sales, and consumer sentiment. These data points provide an update on the current state of the housing market and consumer attitudes about the current and future strength of the economy. Existing home sales fell for a second straight month in April as elevated mortgage rates and increased home prices continue to weaken demand. The median price for an existing home sold last month was $407,600, an all-time high for the month of April, marking the 10th consecutive month of year-over-year increases for existing homes. New home sales fell 4.7% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 634,000 units, falling short of the expected 677,000 units. April’s sales are 7.7% below what they were a year ago, marking the first annual decline in over a year. Consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level in six months, according to this month’s final report for the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is a monthly survey measuring consumers’ opinions with regard to the economy, personal finances, business conditions, and buying conditions. A closer look at May’s report revealed that consumers are concerned over the labor market, high interest rates, income growth, and inflation. The outlook for the stock market's most important driver just keeps getting better. S&P 500 earnings grew 6% in the first quarter from a year ago, according to data from FactSet. When excluding dismal earnings from Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMY), the results were even better, with earnings growing 10%, per Bank of America. Consensus now sees earnings growing 11.4% in 2024, up from a projection of 10.9% on April 5. In 2025, earnings growth estimates have moved up to 14.2% in 2025 from the 11.6% growth seen that day. On Tuesday, UBS Investment Bank US equity strategist Jonathan Golub boosted his year-end S&P 500 target to 5,600 from 5,400, citing "stronger earnings." This trend is supported by further market upside, as economic "tail risks" have declined, with consensus estimates for economic growth increasing throughout the year. Deutsche Bank's chief global strategist Binky Chadha recently told Yahoo Finance that further growth than expected in the economy could help the S&P 500 reach 6,000 by the end of the year. Technically, the S&P500 ETF Trust index price charts depicts the ending of the 5th wave Bullish Divergence pattern which resonates with Elliot Waves theory. The Relative Strength Index which sits at 58.60 signifies weaker growth from the consumer Index.
AMEX:SPYShort
by DEXWireNews
SPY (S&P500 ETF) - Weekly - Potential Resistance Price TestSPY (S&P500 ETF) has been in an uptrend since 2023 and is approaching its all-time-high price resistance again. $523.07 is the current all-time-high price resistance. $497.83 is the current support level price, and also the 0.236 fibonacci level. Bullish Scenario: If SPY price breaks out above $523.07, the next resistance price targets could be: $537, $550, $563, $575. Bearish Scenario: If SPY price reversse back down, a potential lower-low in the price could be set over time. Support price levels could be: $508, $497, $489, $476, $466. Note: corporate earnings, FOMC interest rate changes, government legislation, breaking news, and global events could override technical chart patterns. Date created: 05/10/2024
AMEX:SPY
by NoFomoCharts
Market Direction using SPY historical trend patternsFrom a technical perspective, there hasn't been a definitive signal indicating a trend reversal for the SPY 500. Back in May to October 2023, the SPY exhibited a clear "M" pattern or double top, experiencing a drop of approximately 5%, retracing back, and then dropping around 10%, forming the M pattern. If we compare this M pattern with the current price action, we observe a striking resemblance in the market behavior, as the price retraces from a similar percentage drop of around 5%. The question arises: Is the market genuinely recovering, or are we merely witnessing the formation of another M-shaped pattern!
AMEX:SPY
by MESHANL
3
Earnings season produces wild movesAfter the closing bell on Tuesday, Tesla reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024. Despite the report showing a 9% YoY decline in total revenue and a staggering 55% YoY drop in net income, along with an increase in operating costs by 37% YoY, shares of the company soared more than 12% in the aftermarket. The price action, however, was not the same for Meta Platforms, which delivered much better results yesterday, with revenue growing by 27% YoY, net income by 117% YoY, and operating costs by 6% YoY; yet, the company’s shares plummeted more than 15% following the announcement. While trying to wrap our heads around these moves, we would like to point out the double divergence forming on the monthly graph between the price and RSI, shown in Illustration 1.01. In addition to that, we would want to highlight an impending bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA, both of which currently act as crucial resistance levels. If the SPX breaks and maintains ground above them, it will be positive, but if the SPX fails, it will be slightly worrisome. Besides that, another spike in the VIX will also be concerning. Today, there are several important data releases, including jobless claims, GDP growth rate, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales. Furthermore, several big names are reporting their earnings, most notably Alphabet and Microsoft. Illustration 1.01 Above is the monthly chart of SPX and RSI. Yellow arrows indicate the first and the second divergence between the price and RSI. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape.
SP:SPX
by Vestinda
Stocks Slammed, Is a Reprieve In Order?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5104.00, down 63.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,876.25, down 303.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished sharply lower for the second day in a row as both geopolitics and rising rates act as major headwinds to investors’ risk appetite. We are viewing this pullback as healthy and timely with price action in both testing into the aftermath of NVDA’s February 21st earnings report, which was a pivotal catalyst in the market’s next leg higher. While we do not view the driving narratives (geopolitics and rates) to be stale, we do believe a reprieve in prices is in order? Major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P comes in at 5127-5131.75, and this is a modest first target upon an attempted rebound, with 5147.25-5153.75 marking a 50% back into the week’s range. To the downside, a failure to hold first key support at 5094 would erode this thesis and encourage another wave of selling. As for the E-mini NQ, the February 21st settlement comes in at 17,767 and stands as a line in the sand that has so far withstood an overnight test, but a break below here would also encourage added selling. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5120-5123**, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213*** Pivot: 5104-5112.25 Support: 5094**, 5081.25**, 5069.50-5075***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 17,938**, 18,005-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343*** Pivot: 17,881 Support: 17,841-17,867**, 17,767-17,792**** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63,560, down 3,610 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 64,660-64,890***, 67,170-67,595***, 68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600*** Pivot: 63,700 Support: 62,535**, 61,632-61,680***, 60,830**, 57,410-58.250*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
The Local Line in the Sand for ESE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT. This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50*** Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75 Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25*** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709*** Pivot: 18,185 Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881**** Crude Oil (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98 Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent. Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64*** Pivot: 86.02 Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25*** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110*** Pivot: 70,355-70,410 Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:MBT1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Tomorrow is Make or BREAKIf the market does not give us a meaningful bounce tomorrow (~+0.75%) and hold, and instead breaks lower, things could accelerate to the downside pretty quickly. The downside risk at this point is heavier than the upside potential so all I'm saying is be careful. Would not personally be buying at these levels because you may be holding the bag if this goes wrong. Bullish count is green. Where the last couple weeks have been a complex consolidation pattern of WXYXZ and now the markets will shrug off everything and keep going up. If this happens then we could be looking at a further euphoric meltup. Bearish count is red. Where the last couple weeks have been a 1-2 1-2 1-2, which.......would be bad. Like....really bad. That said, I'm sure most people here would say there's no way, but based on the candles and price action here, this is the bear case. How could things go badly? If Oil prices continue upward. If bond yields continue upward. If precious metals continue upward These do not all have to happen at the same time, but if we see strength continue in these areas then that is bad news, especially if yields and oil trend upward still. That means inflation. IF inflation is not slayed and just slowly dying at this point, and is really a fire smoldering that is ready to start a fire again, then markets could be tipped upside down. I am holding long positions in growth stocks that I feel are very undervalued, but am also holding a large volatility position because I think the market is easily euphoric at this point and I see a lot of complacency around. Also, you can keep an eye on EUR/USD. I have noticed that it is pretty positively correlated with the stock market with a bit of a lag, so when EUR/USD starts falling, the SPY and markets may be forming a top or going into consolidation, and alternatively when EUR/USD forms a bottom and spikes up with markets it can help give confidence that the move up is real. Let me know what you all think. Cheers,
AMEX:SPY
by MonetaryRebel
2