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US Market Technicals Ahead (01 Mar – 05 Mar 2021)Even after President Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid bill narrowly passed the House in the early hours of Saturday, the shakeup in stocks prompted by the rapid run up in Treasury yields looks set to continue to be a major focus for markets in the coming week. Investors will be focusing on Friday’s employment report, which is expected to show that virus restrictions kept a lid on jobs growth in February. Appearances by several Federal Reserve speakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell will also be closely watched. Meanwhile, earnings season is wrapping up, but retailers will still be reporting, with Target ($TGT), Kohl’s ($KSS) and Nordstrom ($JWN) due to publish figures on Tuesday, followed by Costco ($COST) on Thursday. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) remains in red for the week, furthering its correction by -2.37%. The selling of individual equities was most felt on two separate occasion; on Monday 22nd February ($SPX: -0.56%), and Thursday 25th February ($SPX: -2.60%). It is important to note there were several technical structure being broken on the highlighted Thursday itself; Price Action breakdown on 20DMA (3rd Attempt in last 3 months) Price Action breakdown on 50DMA (2nd Attempt in last 2 months) Price Action breakdown on 4 months Trend Channel (2nd Attempt in last 4 months) Breakdown of immediate support at 3,870 with volume exceeding past 50 trading sessions average by +87%. Increasing implied volatility on the week of selloff. On the flip side, every attempted breakdown on the confluence of above technical structure is accompanied with an immediate, and substantial recovery on $SPX (ie. 1st February to 5th February $SPX: +5.35%). At the current junction, $SPX remains bullish at a higher low. Further signs of weakness in this correction will require $SPX to breach its next classical support level at 3,700, for the first significant lower low to be established since September 2020. It remains wise to capitalize on the potential investment opportunities with a prudent risk level. Immediate resistance for $SPX is currently at 3,830, a support turned resistance level. Tug of war between stocks, rising bond yields The shift into energy, financial and other stocks set to benefit from the economic reopening has accelerated, while rapidly climbing Treasury yields are pressuring tech stocks that have led market gains for years. Tech stocks are particularly sensitive to rising yields because their value rests heavily on future earnings, which are discounted more deeply when interest rates go up. A dovish sounding Fed together with expectations for more stimulus have propelled yields higher and fueled concerns about inflation and the two-track market looks set to continue, at least in the short team. February jobs report With President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package advancing to the Senate Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for February will show how the recovery in the labor market is faring. Government data late last week showed that initial jobless claims unexpectedly declined to their lowest in three months, indicating that the slowing infection rate is allowing the labor market to gain some traction. Retail sales also rebounded in January. Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have created 165,000 new jobs in February, after January’s 49,000 increase. But the winter storms that swept across the South may complicate the picture. Powell speech With the rapid climb in Treasury yields roiling the stock market investors may be hoping for Fed officials to address the selloff in Treasuries. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak about the economy at an online event hosted by the Wall Street Journal on Thursday. So far there has been little sign of anxiety among Fed officials about higher Treasury yields. Last week Powell said the move higher was the result of a stronger economy but added that the rate of economic recovery has slowed in recent months and reiterated that monetary policy will remain easy for some time to come.
ULong
by jfsrevg
2/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 20202/28 - SPY / Market looking to consolidate gains of 2020 through the middle of 2021. 1. The gap down and down week on higher volume is telling of a coming consolidation/correction. 2. The usual 4th wave pullback formed a triangle and its measured target hit almost exactly. 3. 5th wave of primary looks to be complete. At a key area here. the 2020 up trend line will be tested here. The degree of the line and length of it tells that it may not hold much longer. An ABC correction would seem to be applicable here testing 358 then eventually 339 and maybe 330 to fill the Nov. 2020 multiple gaps.
AMEX:SPY
by jhinshaw74
1
US Market Technicals Ahead (22 Feb – 26 Feb 2021)The US is releasing the second estimate of Q4 GDP, alongside durable goods orders, personal income and outlays, and PCE price index. Elsewhere, the Eurozone business survey and the UK jobs report will be keenly watched Now, with rising yields, the chances the Fed will begin lowering its asset purchases, reducing liquidity, are starting to increase. Investors are beginning to worry that rising yields could provide competition to stocks. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) was the only major US benchmark that closed in the red, (-0.2%) on Friday. It erased the earlier gain at the start of February with -0.94% for the week. The imminent correction is a technical play out of the Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted over the last two weeks. With current implied volatility of $SPX remaining low in the week of correction, the technical structure of $SPX uptrend channel remains intact. Any signs of further weakness in this rally will require the first break of immediate classical support at 3,870.
ULong
by jfsrevg
US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level. At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870. 1. Stimulus President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation. Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.” 2. Earnings The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending. Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes. Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday. 3. Economic data The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021. Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress. Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
ULong
by jfsrevg
My Take On "SPY" for 02.08.2021 Hay All Traders, I'm not a financial advisor, Don't buy or sell bass on what I'm saying... PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS POST IS JUST FOR INFO ONLY... Day Chart is being used for this post! It looks like a good start to the week on the SP500 index. I have just made a "New indicator" that does use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and plots 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA)s with it. From what I'm seeing, the price is hitting the top of Bollinger Bands (BB), and the price has come down from the top of it many, many times since December 2020. But it has not been stat under the middle BB for a long time. So the price may move back down, but with the RSI is over the SMAs, this may be a small pullback, and the angle pointing up may help push it higher in days and weeks to come. I would love to hear what you think about this post! Happy trading, and thanks for reading.
AMEX:SPY
by ADHDing_
$TVIXFInverse ETFs of $SPY VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETNThe investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the returns of twice (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. The index was designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the VIX, which reflects implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The ETNs are linked to a multiple (2x) of the daily return of the index and do not represent an investment in the VIX.
OTC:TVIXFLong
by BADQOMOCAWGOWLD
2
E-Mini S&P 500 2/2 Evening UpdateMuch like nas, we have approached the top of the channel and indicators are also pointing to overbought. Mainly looking for consolidation and movement back down to the lower boundary of the channel for tomorrow, but also am wary of a push further up before we move back down, based on multiple crushed earnings and positive guidance from sp500 components, which could propel price up a bit higher. Long If we approach the highs of the break formed last week will look into an entry Short Looking for consolidation and a break of key levels - mainly 3800
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Islandboi