US Market Technicals Ahead (16 Feb – 19 Feb 2021)U.S. stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Presidents Day holiday. Investors will be waiting for the FOMC minutes due Wednesday for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps in the holiday shortened week ahead and while earnings season is starting to wind down there are still some big names left to report. On the economic calendar, U.S. retail sales figures and industrial production for January will be the main events to watch. Market participants will also be closely following Thursday’s hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on the recent trading turmoil in GameStop ($GME) and other heavily shorted stocks and bitcoin is closing in on $50K.
Here’s what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
The benchmark index ($SPX) continues its February gain with +1.27% for the week. This rally further established a new all time high for $SPX at 3,941 level.
At the current junction, $SPX exhibition of a Bearish Divergence pattern that was highlighted last week remains in play; as the daily rally of $SPX is accompanied with a volume exhaustion. The first signs of weakness in this rally will require a re-test of all-time high resistance turned support at 3,870.
1. Stimulus
President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion Covid-19 relief package will move to the next stage during the week, with the House Budget Committee pulling all the components into a single piece of legislation.
Biden’s proposed spending package, coming on top of $4 trillion enacted by his Republican predecessor, Donald Trump, would have important consequences for a global economy that is slowly and unevenly recovering after last year suffering its worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
On Friday, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen urged G7 finance leaders to provide more fiscal support to promote a robust and lasting recovery, telling them “the time to go big is now.”
2. Earnings
The S&P 500 ($SPX) and Nasdaq ($QQQ) closed at record highs on Friday as expectations for new fiscal aid from Washington to help the U.S. economy recover bolstered risk appetite. Investors will be looking ahead to earnings from Walmart ($WMT) on Thursday for insights on the strength of consumer spending.
Investors will also be looking at earnings reports from hotels, cruise lines and other businesses that have been badly hit by the pandemic for indications of which could be the first to bounce back as it recedes.
Hilton Worldwide Holdings ($HLT) and Hyatt Hotels ($H) are expected to release their results on Wednesday, followed by Marriott ($MAR), Norwegian Cruise Line ($NCLH) and TripAdvisor ($TRIP) on Thursday.
3. Economic data
The highlights of the U.S. economic calendar will be data on retail sales and industrial production for January, which are expected to show that the economy got off to a strong start in 2021.
Investors will also be watching Thursday’s figures on initial jobless claims with the recovery in the labor market remaining slow. Labor market woes strengthen the case for President Biden’s proposed $1.9 trillion recovery package, which is under consideration in the U.S. Congress.
Meanwhile, minutes from the Federal Reserve’s January policy meeting are due out on Wednesday.
Spy500
My Take On "SPY" for 02.08.2021 Hay All Traders,
I'm not a financial advisor, Don't buy or sell bass on what I'm saying... PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS POST IS JUST FOR INFO ONLY...
Day Chart is being used for this post!
It looks like a good start to the week on the SP500 index. I have just made a "New indicator" that does use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and plots 3 Simple Moving Average (SMA)s with it.
From what I'm seeing, the price is hitting the top of Bollinger Bands (BB), and the price has come down from the top of it many, many times since December 2020. But it has not been stat under the middle BB for a long time. So the price may move back down, but with the RSI is over the SMAs, this may be a small pullback, and the angle pointing up may help push it higher in days and weeks to come.
I would love to hear what you think about this post!
Happy trading, and thanks for reading.
$TVIXFInverse ETFs of $SPY
VelocityShares Daily 2x VIX Short-Term ETNThe investment seeks to replicate, net of expenses, the returns of twice (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures index. The index was designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the VIX, which reflects implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index at various points along the volatility forward curve. The ETNs are linked to a multiple (2x) of the daily return of the index and do not represent an investment in the VIX.
The Big Short (SPY/ES)DONT TIME THE TOP! I post these charts as a warning to be catious, i barely trade puts bc we are in a rally and i will enjoy and make money every day of it with all these great opportunities instead of getting killed by going against a trend.
However, this is my big short plan, i'll be adding into this position with the first sign of a big rejection as a confirmation, expecting this anywhere between now, 388-390 and 395 at the very max. Happy trading :)!
E-Mini S&P 500 2/2 Evening UpdateMuch like nas, we have approached the top of the channel and indicators are also pointing to overbought. Mainly looking for consolidation and movement back down to the lower boundary of the channel for tomorrow, but also am wary of a push further up before we move back down, based on multiple crushed earnings and positive guidance from sp500 components, which could propel price up a bit higher.
Long
If we approach the highs of the break formed last week will look into an entry
Short
Looking for consolidation and a break of key levels - mainly 3800
$SPY Rising Wedge Reversal? Pullback in a Fed Backed Market?Video breakdown going into the first week of February!
$SPY Daily. The night before the meme stocks' drama unravels.Divergence on RSI as we retract to 0.38 key level after a 30+ point gap down on SPX on Wednesday. A gap down is in place again with new South Africa virus variant and an exposed liquidity problem. There are 3 key levels that SPY could bounce off of, but 376 must be held or the weekly trend will be broken and we could flush down quickly.
SPY Short (UVXY: a crash or just a pullback? )If you look at the chart i posted earlier. Well here's your breakout :(
I took a lotto 6/18 50c @ 1.00 and sold for @ 3.50 just now. Lets see where the market goes from here. Be patient and ride the trend!
SPY ONE MORE PUSH BEFORE CORRECTION?SEE CHART - I THINK WE SEE ONE MORE PUSH UP TO 390-393 AREA BEFORE SEEING A REAL CORRECTION INTO THE 350-360 RANGE. AFTER CORRECTION, THE BULLS WILL BE BACK!
FRSXif you want to buy the dip, make sure to buy at 7.00, do not risky to 6.5 (maybe add if it reaches this level).
it is 1 hour chart, so it is just this week's expectation.
this is the dip if it goes high. if it goes don't, it is just gonna keep going down.
make sure to use stop loss, and buy before it breaks out... this is a continuation pattern, and we have already seen 2 of them in this stock.
happy trading, and stay safe
