US Market Technicals Ahead (14 June – 18 June 2021)
The Federal Reserve two-day policy meeting is the main event event for the markets this week, although the central bank is not expected to take any action but maintain an ultra-loose monetary stimulus. All eyes will turn to comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for clues about the central bank's latest view on inflation.
While the outcome of the Fed meeting will take the limelight, investors will also be looking closely at economic data on U.S. retail sales and producer prices for an update on the strength of the economic recovery.
Here is what you need to know to start your week.
S&P500 (US Market)
$SPX rose +0.41% (+17.4 points) for its third straight positive week, closing at a all time high level of 4,250. Investors are giving growth stocks another chance as bond yields come down. The 10-year Treasury went below 1.43% on Friday, a three-month low.
Stock markets are likely to tread water, with investors reluctant to take new positions ahead of Wednesday’s Fed statement which will be scrutinized for clues regarding its timetable for raising interest rates. $SPX continues to reflect a minor bearish divergence as highlighted last week.
The immediate support to watch for $SPX is now at 4,165, a breakdown of its classical support, along with 20D and 50D major moving averages.
Fed meeting
Investors will be zeroing in on the Fed's statement at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting on Wednesday against a background of persistent concerns over whether inflation spikes could pressure the central bank to start tapering its stimulus sooner than expected.
The Fed has repeatedly said that near-term price spikes will not translate into lasting inflation and Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to stick to this stance and reassure markets the Fed’s policy will remain accommodative.
While inflation numbers are rising, the recovery in the labor market remain sluggish. The economy added 559,000 jobs last month after gains of just 278,000 in April. That left employment about 7.6 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.
Most analysts are not expecting the Fed to begin discussing scaling back its asset purchase program before its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in late August.
Economic data
Away from Fed meeting, the U.S. is to release May data on retail sales and producer price inflation on Tuesday.
Also out on Tuesday is industrial production data which will be closely watched amid issues over supply constraints and labor market shortages. This could translate into increases in producer price inflation.
The economic calendar also features reports on housing starts and initial jobless claims. Data on Thursday showed the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in nearly 15 months as the reopening continues.
Meme Stocks Mania
Meme stocks could also remain in the headlines after a volatile ride last week. GameStop ($GME) hit a high of $344.66 Tuesday and dropped as low as $206.13 Friday before closing at $233.34 per share.
Besides meme stocks, Treasuries could also be in focus after an unexpected slide in yields. There was a major move in the rate of the benchmark 10-year, watched most closely by investors, as it influences mortgages and other important lending rates.
Spy500
SPY 422.60 + 0.91 % SHORT IDEA * REVERSAL PATTERNS & PRICEHELLO EVERYONE
HOPE EVERYONE IS DOING GOOD HAVING A GOOD ONE IN THE MARKET THIS WEEK, HERE'S A LOOK AT THE S & P 500 INDEX. That has been trading in a rising wedge looking for a shift in momentum of the index should we push down with the bears to see a break below of structure looking for sells on the index a break above of the support level signals continuation and cancels the trading idea.
* follow your entry rules on entries
* significant moves with the bears change the plan.
lets see how it goes.
many stars must align with the plan before executing the trade, kindly follow your rules.
HAPPY TRADING EVERYONE & LET YOUR WINS RUN...
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ENTRY & SL - FOLLOW YOUR RULES
RISK-MANAGEMENT
PERIOD - SWING TRADE
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If this idea helps with your trading plan kindly leave a like definitely appreciate it.
SPX could be targeting 5k by September/OctoberIf markets can remain in the blue megaphone, we can see a push towards year end to 5k.I do expect some choppiness in the short term and can see us pulling back to ~3800 or even backtesting the green trendline.
A move to 5k would be the measured move on this bull flag we are in
AMD PUTS - TRADE OF THE YEAR IF IT BREAKS 300% GAINERGuys,
If this breaks under this is a MASSIVE gainer on PUTS. Massive. Not only will it full fil the trend bounce at $60 and the possibly descending broadening wedge which overall tends to be bullish with big break upside. It gives you the possibility to not only be short but confidentially swap short to long at $60.
MASSIVE PLAY HERE.
ONLY WORTH TRADING IF IT BREAKS UNDER THE HEAD AND SHOULDERS.
S&P 500 - Elliott Wave Analysis - CorrectionHi All,
What a strong close today for SPY. It certainly took Bears on surprise, the bigger surprise was Nasdaq strong pull back to green as there's a lot of FUD around inflation, which is true but FAANG stocks are too cheap to be ignore for long.
Again, correction can be very tricky, I'll not assume or jump into any conclusion, we're still sitting in correction, and there're various ways Eliott's Correction can take place in ABC pattern, so place your bets accordingly. Good luck.
SPY IMPORTANT LEVELSThe whole week spy has been pretty choppy but managed to stay above the critical 416.32 support. If bulls manage to keep it above that level, we may get to see SPY fill that gap to the upside.
The critical level SPY needs to pass is 420. If it doesn't I suspect we will see this choppy market continue and spy will likely trade between 416.32 and 420 until it breaks to the upside or downside.
We saw good earnings by companies only to sell off (AMD, AAPL, AMZN for example). I think we will likely see more selling on good earnings and remain choppy until earnings season is over.
Just some quick thoughts.
SPY: 3,2,1 Blast OffBuyers have yet again taken price above a low volume buy bar.
Price went above the low volume bar of April 13th and those
three following bars were "normal" volume days which is a strong
indication that the buying is strong and we are definitely headed
higher.
There might be a small correction but it is highly probable
we are going to continue to put in new highs on the S&P. According to the daily chart
as it is right now, 4,300 on the S&P is a reasonable price target.
$SPY 432-451 then...76% Rise In Stocks Since The March Low Is The 3rd Largest Jump In 100 Years...What Happens Next...
JPMorgan Sells $13 Billion of Bonds in Largest Bank Deal Ever
(Bloomberg) -- JPMorgan Chase & Co. sold $13 billion of bonds Thursday, the largest deal ever by a bank, taking advantage of some of the cheapest borrowing costs in years to boost its capital after the Federal Reserve let pandemic relief measures lapse.
The deal, which followed the bank’s best quarter ever, hit the market as corporate borrowers continue to see heavy demand for debt that provides a decent premium over Treasuries. Order books grew to about $26 billion, allowing JPMorgan to trim the interest on the debt from the relatively high spreads it initially offered, according to a person with knowledge of the matter.
The jumbo offering may have been related to recent changes in regulatory relief for banks, according to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Arnold Kakuda.
Treasuries liquidity disappeared in March 2020. In response, the Fed told banks they didn’t have to factor in Treasuries or deposits when calculating their supplementary leverage ratios, which tells them how much capital to set aside to back up their holdings. That exemption went away two weeks ago.
Banks were left in the position of needing to sell Treasuries or add capital, and JPMorgan’s sale of unsecured debt will help it meet total loss-absorbing capacity, or TLAC, requirements, and put the ratio back in balance, Kakuda said.
The bank signaled Wednesday that it would do something. “We have levers to manage SLR and we will,” Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Piepszak told analysts on a quarterly earnings call. The company declined to comment further on Thursday.
Including today’s sale, JPMorgan has raised $22 billion in the U.S. dollar investment-grade bond market this year, more than any other major U.S. bank, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
“Banks are always going to be hefty issuers, which lends a certain opportunism to tapping the markets especially when funding is still so cheap,” said Jesse Rosenthal, a senior analyst at CreditSights.
The longest portion of the five-part offering, a 31-year security, will yield 107 basis points above Treasuries, according to the person, who asked not to be identified discussing a private transaction. The sale follows strong first-quarter earnings, including a 15% increase in fixed-income, currency and commodity trading revenue and a $5.2 billion release from its credit reserves. Rival Goldman Sachs Group Inc. also sold bonds Thursday.
The previous largest bond sale by a bank also came from JPMorgan, a $10 billion offering in April 2020, the Bloomberg-compiled data show. JPMorgan is the sole bookrunner of the sale, and the proceeds are marked for general corporate purposes.
s&p500 us500 spi500 potential top targetss&p500 spy us500 spi500 potential top targets
this is how u tell if u got ur fib ext correct is when the market responds to it at every fib lvl. like here. so 4300 is key if we break this then 4600-4900 possible
us500: how to use this tip? mid may would be a nice time to sell shares for profit. cant get greedy. profit is profit.
THIS IS NOT A SHORT SIGNAL! just a top target signal for take profit. i only ever buy during a crash or recession, dont ever short the index or stocks!