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Spy500

US Market Technicals Ahead (4 Jan – 8 Jan 2021)Markets will face their first major challenge of 2021 as the rapid spread of a new, more contagious coronavirus strain means that economic gains could still be a way off. The December jobs report on upcoming Friday could show that the pace of hiring is slowing down amid renewed pandemic-related restrictions on businesses. Meanwhile, energy traders will be turning their attention to Monday’s OPEC+ meeting where another output boost is on the agenda. Here is what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) rallied with a modest gain of +1.43% (53 points) during the final week of 2020, closing at an all time high of 3,756. At the current junction, $SPX price action remains within the tight 3% trend channel range highlighted; and there will be expectation of a minor correction in the upcoming week in technical perspective, with $SPX trading near the upper bound resistance of its trend channel. Additionally, a short term price-volume bearish divergence is also been observed.  The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, a break of the lower trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Vaccine rollout With U.S. case numbers surging and vaccinations proceeding more slowly than projected Senator Mitt Romney on Friday urged the U.S. government to enlist veterinarians and combat medics to give out coronavirus vaccinations. While the U.S. has approved two vaccines, rollout is going more slowly than the government hoped. About 2.8 million Americans received a COVID-19 vaccine by Dec. 31, falling far short of a 20 million target. The U.S. is averaging 186,000 cases a day, down from a peak in mid-December of over 218,000 new infections each day. Health officials have warned that cases will likely spike again after holiday gatherings. 2. December jobs report The first major U.S. data point of 2021 will be Friday's nonfarm payrolls numbers, which could show a loss of momentum in the labor market. November data already indicated the employment market was losing steam, with 245,000 new jobs added, the fewest in six months. For December, expectations are for an even smaller 100,000 gain. 3. OPEC+ to debate supply vs. demand The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Russia are to hold a virtual meeting on Monday. Oil prices ended December with gains in a positive end to a year that saw U.S. futures turn negative for the first time ever in April. In December OPEC+ held back from plans to boost output by 2 million barrels per day after implementing a record 7.7 million bpd supply cut earlier in the year to shore up prices. Instead, it increased output by 500,000 bpd and agreed that additional monthly adjustments would not exceed that amount. Russia has indicated that it will support another 500,000 bpd production increase from February, despite concerns from others in the group that it is still too early.
UShort
by jfsrevg
SPY - Road to $400 What could cause the next sell off? 1. New virus mutations 2. No stimulus deal 3. Looming eviction crisis 4. Valuation concerns and earnings miss 5. Technical bearish divergence (look at all previous similar set ups on the chart) 6. Possibility of Govt shut down 7. Cyber security breach. What news can come from it? 8. Trump and recent Iran tensions If any or a combination of these catalysts materialize, House and Trump will have to come to an agreement fast (before inauguration) and approve the MAGA way stimulus plan. If 20-30% of all money supply was created in 2020 - DO NOT expect SPY to go anywhere close to $220 (thats just mathematically not possible) and thats wishful thinking....even if you a perma bear. What seems to be possible is a brief drop to $320-330 area, on the way there we would fill a few gaps and we would turn around on stimulus deal and go to our long term ultimate target of $400. What about gaps down below? Well, they will have to wait for now. Definitely do not take any of my posts as a trading advice but hopefully you find them somewhat useful.
AMEX:SPYShort
by bossmodetrader
24
Bullish view on SPY that cannot be ignored3 reasons this view cannot be ignored: 1. There is enormous amount of money in the system. Where will all this money go to? - Option 1: Bonds? Well they are all negative yielding so I dont see anyone wanting to be in them and boomers are selling theirs after a mega 30+ yr run - Option 2: Real estate? Good luck! Tight inventory, shitty moratorium laws, increasingly tenant friendly states and cities, management headaches, poor tenants with 8-10% unemployment, poverty levels going up so ability to pay high rents is going down. Only local moms and pops run rentals, a few big players are in this space but no hedge fund manager will deal with all the BS that RE comes with. - Option 3: Bitcoin? sure, watch RealVision series with plenty of reasons for it. - Option 4: Stonks? Seems like a very legit option and one of the most viable options - Option 5: Metals? Sure, why not. Market size is nowhere close to stonks so there is plenty of upside. 2. Stimulus got rejected - not good enough. So they are going to fight for more $? If Trump gets us more stimulus then we will have even more money in the system. Where would that money go to? If not robin hood accounts then into spending. Spending = earnings, Earnings = profits for Apple, Costco, Amazon, etc. so this is even more bullish for stocks. 3. I believe we are in a technological revolution stage where our technology is improving at a mega exponential rate which is much much higher than ever before. Our Information travels way fast than ever before so our recessions should be shorter and much faster than prior recessions. If you look on the long term chart, we are either at a breakout and retest stage or a simple fake out. Your trades will tell you if you are right or wrong, not a post on Tradingview or some Twitter schmuck. All I am arguing is that be open minded and dont run yourself into the ground being stuck on one particular view. Adjust positions, close trades if needed and re-enter. Use stop losses. Do whatever you need to do to be safe. There is nothing wrong with changing opinions. I am not changing my short term bearish view yet BUT long term I only believe that humanity will win no matter what obstacles we have ahead of us because ALL OF YOU are beautiful and awesome people and I am betting on our collective involvement in progress with a few bumps in the road. So with that, although my trading account needs a Christmas Massacre to happen, I want to wish all of you Merry Christmas (Hannukah, Ramadan or whatever it is that you celebrate) and a very prosperous and Happy New Year!
AMEX:SPY
by bossmodetrader
US Market Technicals Ahead (21 Dec – 25 Dec 2020)The Federal Reserve announced on Friday evening that it will allow the nation’s big banks to resume share buybacks in the first quarter of 2021 subject to certain rules. Bank Stocks rose across the board in post-market trading with $JPM (JP Morgan) +5.3%, $GS (Goldman Sachs) +4.4%, and $WFC (Wells Fargo) +3.5%. Going into the holiday-shortened Christmas week there will still be plenty to watch out for in markets as i) Investors await the vote on a $900 billion coronavirus aid package; ii) Vaccine rollout effort will widen after Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine became the second to receive FDA approval; iii) Monday could see some stock market volatility following Tesla’s addition the S&P 500, as index funds adjust holdings to match the benchmark’s rejig, and iv) Brexit negotiations are in the endgame, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. Here’s what you need to know to start your week. S&P 500 (US Market) The benchmark index ($SPX) have successfully rebounded from the Bullish Reversal Hammer highlighted last week, totaling a gain of +1.80% (+65.8 points). The rally have also seen S&P500 closed the week establishing a new all time high of 3,725 level. Volatility of the index continues to pull lower, with ATR-14 now heading towards September low of 40 points per day ATR-14. With S&P500 remains trading within a 3% trend channel range established since 10th November, the technical strength of the market remains bullish for a continuation rally towards 3,750 level in the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch for any signs of weakness is at 3,660 level, an initial break of the trendline support. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus on the way? The U.S. Congress appears close to a vote on a $900 billion coronavirus relief package, after lawmakers reached a last-minute compromise to overcome one of the final obstacles to a deal. Congressional leaders plan to attach the stimulus package to a $1.4 trillion bill to fund government spending through September 2021. A new government funding deadline is set to expire at midnight Sunday (0500 GMT Monday), risking a government shutdown without a vote. The coronavirus aid package is expected to include one-off $600 checks for most Americans, enhanced unemployment benefits of $300 per week, help for states distributing coronavirus vaccines and more assistance for small businesses. 2. Tesla shakeout Investors may see some volatility on Monday when Tesla ($TSLA) begins trading as part of the S&P 500 as index funds adjust their portfolios to match the benchmark’s shakeup. Tesla shares have rallied almost 700% year-to-date, placing its stock market value at around $600 billion. It is the world’s most valuable auto company, despite having output that is just a fraction of rivals Toyota (NYSE:TM), Volkswagen ($VOW) and General Motors ($GM). Some analysts say its share price is far ahead of fundamentals and there is plenty of debate on how the stock will perform from here on out. 3. Brexit deadline looming With less than two weeks left to go before Britain exits the European Union when the transition period ends on Dec. 31 there is still no trade agreement in place, putting a trillion dollars worth of trade at risk from tariffs and quotas. The talks are still deadlocked on two issues – the EU’s fishing rights in British waters and creating a so-called level playing field providing fair competition rules for both sides. Both sides need to get any deal approved by their parliaments, and with the talks in their final stages, it is expected that any conclusion will most likely come before Christmas.
ULong
by jfsrevg
MTF killer zoneThis MTF Killer Zone, its drawn when yesterday or the last period closes, it so powerful . The way I use it is buying and selling as a support and resistance zone (but its not support and resistance analysis) or at a retest when it break, and if its not touched by the price today or in the current period ... than the zone will be still valid for any time in the near future (3 to 4 days or periods in this example). You can use it as a target if you already have an open position in the market, or using a time frame for entry and another for target. I can send for you on request different time frame the MTFkillerzone, such as weekly and monthly also good for yearly. I recommend to use it only major pairs, also any other financial instrument ( Commodities , indices, bonds, and equities) . Enjoy the setup please! :)
CME_MINI:ES1!
by ghattas360
SPY Holding Up During Holidays? Happy Holidays! After seeing the AMEX:SPY hit ATH last week, some wonder if the flame has just been lit or if it's being put out. Will the market hold strong into the New Years' or will it start a correction as Biden makes his way into office. Right off the bat, I see a few key levels to watch starting with $363.22 as Monthly support and $365.73 as weekly. We should also watch $369.84 and $371.05 as weekly resistance. As the vaccine is distributed nationally and globally, we could aim to expect a continuation up that is unless we see negative news about this pandemic or vaccine. We also need to remember that Biden will be making his transition into the White House on January 20th, 2021. God Bless America
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack
3
S&P500 - Better Buy Prices on Deck possibly this weekMinor dip, and what appears to be a lower high unless prices move higher in the last couple of hours. Minor bearish divergence detected on the RSI. Ultimately I am long, got the shorting out of my system at the beginning of the year. Just looking to invest at better prices. We are overdue for a little bit of pain as well as illustrated by my previous idea which did play out. Also price keeps hovering near the 3666 number, I'm sure it's pure coincidence, it always is... Would be aiming for a test of 3612 if I were shorting from today's highs. 4 More days after today and then I would hope to not be staring at charts the next week, save for possibly cryptocurrencies and to have all available cash invested for this year.
SP:SPXLong
by JJMa
2
US Market Technicals Ahead (14 Dec – 18 Dec 2020) $SPXThe S&P 500 ($SPX) wrapped up a losing week, as the outlook for additional fiscal stimulus remained uncertain. The benchmark index declined -0.82% (-30.3 points), with an establishment of an all time high session at 3,715 level during the week. The minor sell off during the week has the volatility of the index at it’s 10 weeks, with price volatility range at an average of +/- 50 points per daily market session. As highlighted during the previous week, S&P 500 remains trading within a very tight 3% trend channel range established since 10th November. The closing of Friday’s session established $SPY a Bullish Reversal Hammer (highlighted), indicating a potential short term rally for the upcoming week. The immediate support to watch is 3,588 classical support level, with SPY poised to recapture its all time high at 3,715 level this upcoming week. Top 3 things to watch this week: 1. Stimulus deadlock Investors are anxious to hear if more fiscal stimulus is coming as surging virus cases lead to fresh containment measures and business closures in many U.S. states. But Congress missed another deadline on Friday to deliver a new fiscal aid package to help revive the economy. The Senate instead passed a stop-gap extension of government funding to allow more time for lawmakers to work out a larger spending package, including coronavirus relief. A deal remains elusive after a months-long standoff between Republicans and Democrats over the size of the potential package. Over 13 million people are due to lose unemployment benefits on Dec. 26 without quick action by Congress. 2. U.S. COVID vaccine campaign gets underway The first doses of the vaccine developed by Pfizer ($PFE) and German partner BioNTech SE ($BNTX) will be delivered to 145 locations around the United States on Monday, marking a turning point in the pandemic that has killed more than 295,000 Americans. Millions of Americans could begin getting vaccinated this month, especially if a second vaccine from Moderna ($MRNA) is approved rapidly. Other companies with vaccines in advanced development include AstraZeneca ($AZN) with Oxford University, and Johnson & Johnson ($JNJ). 3. Fed meeting The Fed is to hold its final monetary policy meeting of 2020 against the background of a faltering economic recovery. The U.S. jobs report for November pointed to a loss of momentum in the labor market and the latest jobless claims data hit the highest since September amid fresh containment measures to curb the spread of the virus. That may prompt policymakers to debate making changes to the bank’s asset purchase program or alter its forward guidance for future purchases, particularly as Congress continues to remain deadlocked over additional fiscal stimulus.
ULong
by jfsrevg