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Spy500

SPY: Elliott and NeO Wave Forecast (memento)Dear friends, The bag of market forecasting has torn and in given the situation, there is nothing to be surprised about it. At least, in the next half of the year, the Covid-19 again shuffles and deals cards and it's up to us as well as with bad cards we can play a good round. I am deliberately talking about round because blackjack is still not yet over (Are you scared about ending?). The presented forecast is based on Elliot Wave Principle and NOeWave Theory on SPY. Recently, there have been published many different counts, but which one is the right one? Good question, right? Because the Indexes can be considered as a kind of market averaging, both theory without doubts should be applicable with relatively high accuracy. I also published several ideas of wave counting to forecast market behavior during the Covid-19 crises (exclusively to short), but I must also admit, that so many possibilities make me restless and I'm trying to calm down my conscience and direct my certitude in the right direction. The main difference between the previous one and the presented forecast lies in the application of the NEoWave rules that can be taken as Elliott Wave extension. The counting and situation are in more detail shown in related graphs. In the black rectangle, there are two options of Fibonacci ratios of price changes in percent for the CYCLE degree (black curve), where the second option seems to be very close to 2.618 and the depicted counted reflect just this situation. The traditional Fibonacci extension in lin and log scale doesn't exhibit meaningful agreement, however, refer to the book Elliott Wave Principle by Frost and Prechter, the ratios of price changes expressed in percent have higher informative value compared to the classical approach based on absolute prices. The red-bordered rectangle shows Fibonacci ratios for SUPER CYCLE degree. However, because the end of the 3rd wave in this degree is not yet known, the corresponding ratio also remains unknown (second line in the rectangle). In terms of basic Elliott theory, the expanding triangle in the 4th correction wave is very likely. More specifically, we are currently in the situation of the last phase of correction, i.e. E wave, that according to the NOeWave rule of Self Definition, cannot take more than 519 days in the worst case. I must note, that the presented specific counting be aware of the NOeWave rule of Logic corresponding to the Running Flat correction, which precedes the elongated 3rd waves (green remarks). Additionally, I have not observed (at the presented degree of counting) any violation of NOeWave rule of Self Definition. The last thing that I would like to mention is Regular Flat in 2nd correction wave of SUPER CYCLE degree (bloody red color) that according to the NEoWave rule of Logic should not precede the steep impulse corresponding to the 3rd wave. Therefore the scary memento arises: What if the 1st wave is actually part of the 3rd wave and the 2nd wave is actually the 4th wave? That makes sense in both theories and additionally, we are not the owner of completed market data. So how can we know where the starting point of the 1st wave really is? Market and trading itself started very, very long ago and it's hard to say where we are in fact in terms of the absolute position of wave counting theory. However, if we accept this possibility, after the end of SUPER CYCLE, the casino-market will close and the blackjack is over. It will be a long night and when one wakes up the casino will open again with the entry price of 100-150$/per share? "Ladies and gentlemen, please come in and enjoy the new game of blackjack" If you like this idea please leave a comment.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko
SPY: Damocles's sword just started to twitchHi, 2 days ago I published this idea based on Elliott Wave Theory. After some feedbacks, remarks and comments about the weird-long correction of the 4th wave in PRIMARY degree (green line), the recounting has been carried out, which is also shared in the previous idea. After that one can conclude that we are already in the deep correction phase because, in my opinion, the previous ATH in February 2020 corresponds to the end of the long-term 3rd wave of SUPERCYCLE degree. If we accept this hypothesis and take the actual ATH at approx. 360$/share as the end of B wave, the 3-3-X correction is in progress where X can be further unfolded to the more complex correction. In my opinion, which is also in good agreement with Glenn Neely long-term prediction presented in www.youtube.com The Expanding Triangle can be very likely forecasted formation, where to let me again address to the book "Elliott Wave Principle" written by Frost and Prechter, where is stated that usually, either C or D wave are complex waves consisting of ZigZag combination or Triangle, but for Expanding Triangle no waves (A-B-C-D-E) is formed by triangle formation itself that results to only one option - ZigZag combination. Because the market is still in a good mood, no rapid impulse formation in a downtrend (as A wave of ZigZag) has not been observed until now. This situation is labeled as W-X pair on the graph. However, if this is really true, a big surprise is still silently waiting for traders and investors that after the horror revival creates panic and massive sell-off, that leads to the ZigZag subsequent formation (wave Y on the graph). My apologies if I scared you very much, but Damocles's sword just started to twitch.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko
6
SPY - too short time to go shortIn my humble opinion, 2nd wave of Covid19 compress the time to folds the final 5th wave into 89 bars (top-to-top distance very close correspond to Fibonacci numbers) and stops slightly above 360$ per share. In other words, I don't expect the shorting market crawls up to the price when IV wave end, on the contrary, I expect direct movement at new ATH (truncation or ending diagonal formation are very likely). If this presumption will be violated, in such a case, also counting is invalid and should be revised. When new ATH reap the glory, the significant sale will be followed where 3 possible gradual levels are also marked. New recounting can be realized like this www.tradingview.com however the waves marked 1-5 will not be motive waves, rather B wave of the folding corrective wave (in this time 3-3-X where X is currently unknown wave formation for now leading to long-time short position). More specifically waves 1-3 forms A wave, wave 4 forms B wave and, 5 wave forms C wave of ZigZag formation of lesser degree. Forecast: Short time - go long Long time - go short (in both cases the deep correction is expected) Please keep in mind, it's not a suggestion, just observation. Any comments are warmly welcome.
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kovinko
4
$SPY INDEX TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN | OCT 2020Friday was the quarterly event known as quadruple witching where S&P 500 (SPY - Get Rating) futures, options on those futures, options on individual equities, and single stock futures all expire. In the past, these ‘witching’ days have been characterized by above-average trading volume and increased volatility. But, in the current environment, those are relative terms as both have been elevated for the past few months. Still, expect some wild gyrations, especially as we head into the close today, which could carry over into Monday’s opening as positions get squared away, hedges get established and positions are rebalanced. Data suggests that there are some 90 million options contracts likely to settle in-the-money and approximately $32 billion in index rebalancing, which needs to occur. ~ SPY currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $327 which could offer as a decent entry point considering our next support is at $324. Possible long on a break and hold of resistance @ $332. Upside targets: $340, $344, $347 Possible Short Entry pn break and hold below $327 Patience will pay, be very patience with these levels. DotcomJack | Michael Jordan of Stonks
AMEX:SPY
by DotcomJack
Timing for shorts and longs in SP500. ExplainedAdvance Decline Line has been one of the best indicators recently for SP500 traders. And again we have to watch it. I think we can see a very short-term rally (if the 4h trendline breaks up). If SP500 rallies without a similar move in the Advance Decline Line, it will set up a short entry. It seems to be a very possible scenario based on other studies: Cycles – top between 17 – 24 of September, followed by a decline till the middle of October Seasonal – down from September 17th Intermarket forecast – down till October
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
SPY - SP500 ETF s/r analysisHello traders, Description of the analysis: SPY support zones ideal for timing long positions (gray). Trade what you understand, trade carefully and sparingly according to the business plan. About me: Hi, my name is Jacob Kovarik and I´m trading on stock exchange since 2008. I started with a capital of 3000 USD. My first strategy was based on OTM options. (American stock index and their ETF ). I´ve learnt on my path that professional trading is based on two main fundaments which have to complement each other, to make a bussiness attitude profitable. I´ve tried a lot of techniques and many manners how to analyze the market. From basic technical analysis to fundamental analysis of single title. My analytics gradually changed into professional attitude. I work with logical advantages of stock exchange (return of value back to average, volume , expected volatility , advantage of high stop-loss, the breakdown of time in options, statistics and cosistent thorough control of risk). At the moment, my main target is ITM on SPM index. Biggest part of my current bussiness activity comes from e mini futures (NQ, ES). I´m trader of positions. I´m from Czech republic and I take care of a private fund (over $4.000.000 USD). During my career I´ve earned a lot of valuable experience, such as functionality of strategies and what is more important, control of emotions. Professional trading is, in my opinion, certain kind of mental training and if we are able to control our emotions, accomplishment will show up. I will share with you my analysis and trades on my profile. I wish to all of you successul trades. Jacob
AMEX:SPYLong
by Jacob_Kovarik
2
SPX Gives Bulls a glimmer of HopeAt first when the price action fell below the 200 MA on Friday, I was a bit nervous. Luckily we had a bounce back above the 200 hundred. Which then left the price action stuck between the 50 MA and the 200 MA. Leaving it a guessing game as which direction we might be heading. Oddly we have settled on a support line... which is the same suppot line when Biden accounced harris as his running mate. Yup, the 11th of August.. that big red candle I have circle. I'm not exactly sure what that means. But hopefully that wil be the last support line we'll see for a while. Which is why I saw it's a glimmer of hope. Yes, we've closed below the 200 MA on the 4 HR. Now we just need a comeback. AAPL Fell to the 50 MSFT Fell tpo the 618 I think the worst is over... I hope.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by BodiesXWix
Advance Decline Line did great job. What is next?Last week was hot for stock traders. As we discussed SP500 rallied a bit higher and was rejected. The Advance Decline Line did its job perfectly. I think the market can retest 3500 or higher and if rejected, we can sell for 3200. We still can see a big rally this year. Cycles and Fed Funds forecast indicate the beginning of an uptrend at the end of September. Besides, the stock market is usually strong before Elections. But for now, let's focus on very short-term trades.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by UnknownUnicorn1156963
SPY - BE CAREFUL SHORTINGHello Traders, First official publish today! Let's take a look at the SPY on the 4 HR chart. No fancy charting needed. Our strategy follows simple market structure. BIG question leading into next week...IS THIS THE SELL OFF?! We're Bullish. We were expecting some sort of a pullback and it's nice that this "major" sell off took us back to simply retest our last ATH breakout zone. We are buying into this retest where we see a range of support from $331 to $340 area. There could be a further sell off down to those levels coming into next week. Be careful shorting this market. There's a lot of bearish sentiment and that's totally understandable due to covid and election fears. However, US equities still lead the global markets and we believe that more foreign money will pour into the US stock market this year to make positive yield as the rest of the global market underperforms. WATCH OIL THIS WEEK! We saw a bit of a continued sell off on oil this friday. This could potentially bring us closer to the lower support areas and put us in a grim environment during the early trading days this coming week. Take your profits on short term trades and never chase these moves until a full confirmation. Other than that, trading volume should pick up next week and we'll have to observe how the market comes back after labor day. Have a nice weekend! *NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE, THIS IS JUST OUR PERSPECTIVE AND WE DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY TRADES WE PUBLISH ON OUR CHANNEL. YOU WILL LOSE MONEY.
AMEX:SPYLong
by KoreanStreetBets