Spy500
SPY Short, Starting May 11 2020With the SPY losing traction im thinking we do one jump up back to $296 and then a straight shot back down towards $255
we have yet to fill the gap and as we always know, gaps are always going to get filled
i think that once we reach that $255 gap its back to ATHs until Q2 where earnings might be a lot worse than people are anticipating
especially with Disney suffering this much of a loss with their arks being closed like a month before Q1 ended
I think disney as well as every other company will rebound off these lows and well see a bullish market until Q3 where earnings might not be as great as people think
ultimately back to SPY, i think we do one more shoot upwards towards the $296 mark, then start seliing off Monday back down towards the $255 range to fill that gap
that will be the new low and we wont go any lower
SPY Bullish scenarioSPY was rejected at 250EMA and 61.8 Fibonacci retracement level and it completed a legit 1,2,3,4,5 impulse into a complete wave 1. My target for wave 2 is arrount 250.
The 2020 Market Crash - 'The Finale' After such a big drop with a relief rally to follow, people are getting complacent, comfortable, and feeling more confident about holding their stocks - the people who told them to not panic were right - thank you CNBC Fast Money! We've reached a point, technically speaking, where we should expect a sell off and new lows. The 61.8 / golden zone was tapped from this rally, and the rate of growth from this rally was so fast and sudden, the rubber band is about to backfire the other way now for a 'C' wave. The target 2 is the 'C' wave target - the 161.8. My target 1 is a conservative 'you can't always be right' target, and I don't think it's a bad place to begin cost-averaging in buys.
This wave count, along with the 61.8 tap, and then paired with what appears to be an ascending wedge is just further support for a bearish claim, even though the pattern structure is pretty large, I still think it's something to consider as it is overall a bearish pattern.
I am currently out of all my positions as of today, and I'm just waiting for more price development to make some clearer decisions, as from what I see today - it looks extremely bearish. I have studied markets too long to not recognize the possibility of potential lower lows being formed in the coming weeks, and it's not worth losing my 80% gains on my CCL and SAVE buys. I understand this is a special situation with CVOID-19, but I've learned when you ignore technicals, you usually get punished.
Good luck everyone, make your own decisions. This isn't financial advice.
SPX SHORT THE 200 MA ?SPX 500 looks toppy here
The daily and 4 hour 200 sMA are very close (at 3010) so we can expect a rejection from this level
The 2850-2800 zone should be the next target.
Watching price levels on SPY/Futures closelySPY is starting is breakdown, been waiting for this Bull trap to start taking shape. Artificially propped up market with unprecedented levels of unemployment, no end in sight for Corona....
Price never got to the Golden Ratio which is what I wanted to give me higher confidence on my PUTs, currently price is getting supported by the 0.23 retracement line. If this breaks, looking to finding new support somewhere around where I drew the white rectangle.
SPX SHORT ?It already bounced +30% from the low.
The situation is still bad, people still in lockdown.
A retracement from here is the most optimal for the market if we are still bullish.
An overextention of this pump could end in a major crash in the future.
The VIX Runs the showHate to say it but the VIX runs the show and I think Investors are just going to keep this on algo mode. I keep hearing bullish investors that they are waiting for another dip to buy more. I'm starting to think that recession is canceled til a real investor pulls the rug out. I don't think that's going to happen because these are really powerful companies with plenty to lose. For big investors its either the 10 year bond or $SPY. Everyone is too bearish, which usually means that stocks will go up. I think only small businesses suffer after all this like always. For big businesses unemployment means "free restructure". I guess this is the truest of bull traps if it ever was one. The 2018 mini crash its how it will look like because big investors just see it as a dip especially with government backing.
SPY wedge - short itRising wedge = bearish.
High RSI = bearish.
High Stoch RSI = bearish.
High Accumulation = bearish.
Next steps: short it.
Target: 2,120
4 Ideas on Where the Bulltrap Ends (Updated 4/13/20)The current bull trap pattern remains bullish, and today's small pullback allows for a run-up tomorrow to the 284-285 range, where there is an important pivot / resistance. Any trend reversal here would help form a double top pattern, similar to the one that had formed around 263 on March 31. From here, I'm expecting a bigger pullback here back to the 0.5 fib line and the bullish trend line. This is the first opportunity to breakdown the bull trap, but I believe it's more likely we see a bounce here and a bullish continuation towards the next fib line (.786) at 293. Any pullback from the .786 fib line has a must better chance of breaking down the bullish trend line. Good opportunities to swing trade in the near term and enter short positions towards the end of the bull trap.
SP500 - final leg up below 2930?My very short term view: 15min candles
- we are in the last 5th minor wave of bigger C corrective wave
- fib 0,618 is at 2930
- till end ot this week (17-4-2020) the top of the correction...or call it bear market rally should be in (if not..and we close for 3 days in a row above 2930, then something else is going on and this view has to be corrected)
$SPY will plummet 60% in 1 yearWith every devastation this country faces there is always a high rate of plummet within the markets. There were bull rallies within those plummets, but it still happened. BUT WHAT YOU HAVE TO REMEMBER, THE MAIN VICTIM IN THE LAST 2 DISASTERS WAS USA.
No one is coming to terms that its not just the US economy that has been shut down, BUT THE WHOLE WORLD.
You will see a faster plummet this year, within a year I expect. Again, remember, the whole world economy has been shutdown practically.
(And for anyone who is expecting a "V" rally, no where in history have we recovered so quickly, and we wont this time. "History might not repeat, but patterns do." -Felix T. The cause may be different, but the results will ultimately be the similar)
But lets focus on the US.
*More than 16 million people are unemployed, and even if we turned around today an opened the economy, those 16 million would not be hired right away. Remember, business lost revenue, and they will not higher employees while they have lost revenue. It will take months if not years to recover those employment numbers.
Retail companies were already struggling before Covid-19, and now with everyone on lock-down, the new digital era will simply erase many from our minds.
Bulls will argue that the Fed's stimulus will hold over the economy, but that thinking is simply naive, childish, and greedy. US CEOs see there business cutting employees, wages, and expecting major cash-flow issues. Confidence level amid the majority of CEOs has sharply declined to levels not seen since the Great Depression, and no one would argue that given the decline in the view about the current state of the economy.
This statement has never rang more true, "Be FEARFUL when others are GREEDY, and GREEDY when others are FEARFUL."
Let's be honest, all we are seeing here in this current rally is GREED, not HOPE.
I see this current rally hitting only increasing to around 2900, before we decline sharp again.
And the OPEC deal that was completed today wont be enough to save this Bull rally.
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posstible forescast spythis pattern been made by the spy few times before
we are in a bullish wedge
pullback failed the 266 support and touch the 262 still i think we will hit the 282 300 market need cross 274
to many good news going on
only reason spy drop from 330 was for the corona virus pandemic
very oversold rsi ma looks very good for more rally
support levels
266 262 252
4 Ideas on Where the Bulltrap EndsToday we had another rejection off the 275 area, just shy of the 0.618 fib retracement level, and a potential double top pattern is now forming here. However, given that the previous double top pattern at 263 led to a bullish continuation pattern, I could potentially see the 0.618 fib being broken after a run-up from the lower trend line support. This would extend the bull trap, shaking off even more shorts, bring us up to the 0.768 fib retracement level. This area is a key area for a sell-off and trend reversal.
SPX BEAR FLAG ?Bear flag ? We will wait for a break down to confirm it
Possible target of the bear flag is under 2100 (New lows)
We should learn from the past ! $SPX1500 was a strong double top, we fall -55% from there in the past
We are going there, and V bottom could happen
Be fast, you have only one shot
SPY BOTTOM PREDICTION.I will update this idea.
This could be part of a bigger ABC correction.
If this is a big ABC correction this could get very ugly.
SPYSPY
Appears to me people are stepping in or Robots buying the big dip.
People are recovering quickly even without meds, only really effects the elderly.
But economically doesn't make sense to go back to all time highs yet what about China not being at work for at least a month it has effected all sorts of industries, but worry about that next quarter i guess.
These dips are what hey dream of it's like free money to them.
VIXVIX looks like its chopping around with nothing exciting happening until it breaks 54.3 or 55.7 for confirmation for spy to head lower.
SPY more down?Over the weekend it looks like the virus has gotten worse within the US. The may lead to more downside this week. We are currently in a correction zone but below $271.2 we are in recession territory or 20% down from our previous highs. I think that $286 and $281 will be hard resistance to break through to go lower. I am going to long puts on SPY but also hedging this week until we break $286 and $281.
