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Spy500

Earnings season produces wild movesAfter the closing bell on Tuesday, Tesla reported its earnings for the first quarter of 2024. Despite the report showing a 9% YoY decline in total revenue and a staggering 55% YoY drop in net income, along with an increase in operating costs by 37% YoY, shares of the company soared more than 12% in the aftermarket. The price action, however, was not the same for Meta Platforms, which delivered much better results yesterday, with revenue growing by 27% YoY, net income by 117% YoY, and operating costs by 6% YoY; yet, the company’s shares plummeted more than 15% following the announcement. While trying to wrap our heads around these moves, we would like to point out the double divergence forming on the monthly graph between the price and RSI, shown in Illustration 1.01. In addition to that, we would want to highlight an impending bearish crossover between the 20-day SMA and the 50-day SMA, both of which currently act as crucial resistance levels. If the SPX breaks and maintains ground above them, it will be positive, but if the SPX fails, it will be slightly worrisome. Besides that, another spike in the VIX will also be concerning. Today, there are several important data releases, including jobless claims, GDP growth rate, wholesale inventories, and pending home sales. Furthermore, several big names are reporting their earnings, most notably Alphabet and Microsoft. Illustration 1.01 Above is the monthly chart of SPX and RSI. Yellow arrows indicate the first and the second divergence between the price and RSI. Technical analysis gauge Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish *The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
SP:SPX
by Tradersweekly
Mid April: Market pullbacks, inflation concerns; critical levelsIn April, the markets navigated a sluggish terrain, witnessing pullbacks from the record highs achieved in March for both the S&P 500 and the Dow. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ experienced a marginal dip, bolstered by specific technology stocks. Persistent concerns surrounding inflation lingered, exacerbated by the latest Consumer Price Index data revealing a 3.5% annual increase in March, with core inflation climbing to 3.8%. These figures, coupled with inflation data surpassing expectations, tempered anticipations for immediate interest-rate adjustments. Our analysis pinpoints a notable development as the US stock market dipped below the critical 5141 level, meriting close observation. Signs suggest a potential further descent, potentially to close a gap, presenting a prospective opportunity for traders. We recommend traders monitor these levels vigilantly for insights into market trajectory and potential trading prospects, particularly surrounding the 4982 gap level. This juncture could serve as a pivotal support or resistance zone, contingent upon price action and market sentiment. Diligently tracking these benchmarks can furnish invaluable guidance for making well-informed trading decisions amidst the current market landscape.
SP:SPX
by Vestinda
Stocks Slammed, Is a Reprieve In Order?E-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5104.00, down 63.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 17,876.25, down 303.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished sharply lower for the second day in a row as both geopolitics and rising rates act as major headwinds to investors’ risk appetite. We are viewing this pullback as healthy and timely with price action in both testing into the aftermath of NVDA’s February 21st earnings report, which was a pivotal catalyst in the market’s next leg higher. While we do not view the driving narratives (geopolitics and rates) to be stale, we do believe a reprieve in prices is in order? Major three-star resistance in the E-mini S&P comes in at 5127-5131.75, and this is a modest first target upon an attempted rebound, with 5147.25-5153.75 marking a 50% back into the week’s range. To the downside, a failure to hold first key support at 5094 would erode this thesis and encourage another wave of selling. As for the E-mini NQ, the February 21st settlement comes in at 17,767 and stands as a line in the sand that has so far withstood an overnight test, but a break below here would also encourage added selling. Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 5120-5123**, 5127-5131.75***, 5147.25-5153.75***, 5162.75-5167.25***, 5182-5185.50**, 5207.75-5213*** Pivot: 5104-5112.25 Support: 5094**, 5081.25**, 5069.50-5075***, 5044-5055****, 5026-5027.25**, 5018**, 4983.50-4994.25**** NQ (June) Resistance: 17,938**, 18,005-18,072****, 18,131-18,167***, 18,226-18,254***, 18,326-18,343*** Pivot: 17,881 Support: 17,841-17,867**, 17,767-17,792**** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 63,560, down 3,610 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 64,660-64,890***, 67,170-67,595***, 68,590*, 70,410-70,800**, 71,795-71,815**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600*** Pivot: 63,700 Support: 62,535**, 61,632-61,680***, 60,830**, 57,410-58.250*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
The Local Line in the Sand for ESE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June) S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00 E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT. This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds. Bias: Neutral Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50*** Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75 Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25*** NQ (June) Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709*** Pivot: 18,185 Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881**** Crude Oil (May) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98 Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent. Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02. Bias: Bullish/Neutral Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64*** Pivot: 86.02 Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25*** Micro Bitcoin (April) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055 Bias: Neutral/Bullish Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110*** Pivot: 70,355-70,410 Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680*** Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
CME:MBT1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
Tomorrow is Make or BREAKIf the market does not give us a meaningful bounce tomorrow (~+0.75%) and hold, and instead breaks lower, things could accelerate to the downside pretty quickly. The downside risk at this point is heavier than the upside potential so all I'm saying is be careful. Would not personally be buying at these levels because you may be holding the bag if this goes wrong. Bullish count is green. Where the last couple weeks have been a complex consolidation pattern of WXYXZ and now the markets will shrug off everything and keep going up. If this happens then we could be looking at a further euphoric meltup. Bearish count is red. Where the last couple weeks have been a 1-2 1-2 1-2, which.......would be bad. Like....really bad. That said, I'm sure most people here would say there's no way, but based on the candles and price action here, this is the bear case. How could things go badly? If Oil prices continue upward. If bond yields continue upward. If precious metals continue upward These do not all have to happen at the same time, but if we see strength continue in these areas then that is bad news, especially if yields and oil trend upward still. That means inflation. IF inflation is not slayed and just slowly dying at this point, and is really a fire smoldering that is ready to start a fire again, then markets could be tipped upside down. I am holding long positions in growth stocks that I feel are very undervalued, but am also holding a large volatility position because I think the market is easily euphoric at this point and I see a lot of complacency around. Also, you can keep an eye on EUR/USD. I have noticed that it is pretty positively correlated with the stock market with a bit of a lag, so when EUR/USD starts falling, the SPY and markets may be forming a top or going into consolidation, and alternatively when EUR/USD forms a bottom and spikes up with markets it can help give confidence that the move up is real. Let me know what you all think. Cheers,
AMEX:SPY
by MonetaryRebel
2
Stock market peaks in July 2024, followed by an epic crash?I have made some calculations regarding potential stock market development in the S&P500 in the coming months. There is of course no guarantee that it will turn out exactly like this, but there are very interesting mathematical correlations in an optimal scenario. Since January 2018, the price has been inside an ascending channel with a couple of hits at both the bottom and the top of the channel and is on the way up. I have then measured the time and height from the covid low in March 2020 to the next peak in late 2021 and then made an exact similar measurement from the low in October 2022 to a possible future peak. Then I tried to find Fibonacci levels that coincide with the tops and bottoms of the chart. It can be tricky where there is no data but there are methods to resort to. If you measure from the bottom after the financial crisis in 2009 and to the highest before the covid rebound in 2020 (3397), you see that this ends up at the 50% level in this calculation. If you instead do a Fibonacci Extension between these levels, you end up at the same potential top level in the chart (double the distance). I have chosen to leave this out of the diagram to try and keep it as clean as possible. The really interesting thing is that all these measurements converge at exactly the same level and time. This occurs in July 2024 at ≈6121. Historically, peaks in the market usually occur around the same time that interest rates start to fall. According to the forecasts, it currently looks like it could happen in June this year. If all this were to occur, we can note that the rise from October 2022 will then be 75%. Should there then be a really big stock market crash and we look at the symmetry, i.e. 75%, we see that an equally large percentage decline would take us exactly to the levels at the double peak in the dotcom bubble in 2000 and the peak before the financial crisis in 2007. This is therefore a calculation based on an optimal scenario, and such scenarios unfortunately rarely occur. But it's worth keeping in mind in case the market takes us there anyway.
FX:SPX500
by magnusfogelberg
4
S&P: Bearish signals mount but buyers still have controlLast week began with a display of strong conviction from buyers, propelling price upwards towards the previous high (516.5). They managed to surpass it by a small margin, establishing a new historical high at 517.1. Unfortunately, bulls were unable to sustain momentum and build a new value zone, allowing bears to regain control and push price back towards the previous low. All these developments signal daily uptrend exhaustion. Trend is close to reversal, but it is not there yet. Sellers must prove their strength by taking down the last week low (506,9). Until then it is still bulls market and buyers have control. The outlook for the next week is neutral. Long term Buyers should refrain from increasing position and consider (partial) profit taking. Sellers can try shorting the market but remember that odds are still slightly in favor of the opposite side. Wednesday (20th) is an important day for the market as FED will announce interest rate decision. P.S. for some reason weekly high on the daily chart doesn’t match weekly high on the weekly chart. I have reported this issue to TV support Disclaimer I don't give trading or investing advice, just sharing my thoughts.
AMEX:SPY
by hermes_trisme
ES / SPY In A Correction Phase After A Measured MoveThree weeks prior, the market completed a bullish leg measured move. This pattern is significant as markets often exhibit a tendency to move in pairs, a phenomenon observable across all time frames. This behavior is rooted in the psychological aspects of market dynamics, wherein the market tends to repeat actions twice. This concept is underscored by market geometry, which includes two-legged pullbacks, measured moves, second entries, among others. The market recently reached 5256, a likely target for many traders, followed by the formation of an inside bar. This development has led to a three-week consolidation phase for ES as it assimilates the previous move before potentially initiating another. The bullish outlook remains intact as long as the price holds above 5126 on the weekly timeframe. The upcoming FOMC meeting adds an additional layer of significance to these levels, as they will likely determine whether a higher timeframe pullback ensues or if the current trend continues.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by AmpedTrading