If You're Bearish on SPY, Here Are Your Potential TargetsSome people think we will see a big sell off on the SPY, I think also we will see some selling pressure increase, so here are some targets to look for as sellers maintain pressure. I would look for bull divs on the daily time frame to play any short term bounces. You want that EQ of the channel to hold if it does go back into the trading range. If it breaks, look for a bounce from the bottom of the TR. But if we fall back in, I remain bearish and I will look for a long term target (blue line). This is not financial advise. This is for me, personally.
Spy500
SPY shortThe technical analysis that I ran this morning on the S&P 500 look as if it can be headed for a correction. Looking the history in the recent months the Elliot wave theory can be applied on the recent uptrend of the index. With the dip in May-June it looks as if the SPY may be going into an Elliot wave theory correction. Also looks like a double top reversal pattern forming as well. It is also important to note the amazing bull run the market has been on since the 2008 financial crisis. We are due for a huge market dip and this may be it.
S & Party OverSPY 50% Crash Looms
S&P500 Index is a benchmark for the US and global equity markets
Historial 10 Year Bullrun posted 300%+ gains
Technicals show top forming since Jan 2018
Fundamentals align for recession: US-China Trade war, Gov Bonds rally, USD continues strong, Treasury Yield Inversion, Minimum Unemployment
Bears target a 40-60% retracement
Bulls look to buy a reversal between 140-180 in 1-2 years
SPY towards 263 possibilityMap these Elliot Wave points and combine with Fib Retracement / Fib Trend Retracement. You will find text-book hits on text-book fib levels. I cleaned all of this away for a better final movement view, which is:
A retracement towards 0.618, but fundamentals might shake things up! Down it goes nontheless.
SP500 SPY ETF supply and demand analysis and forecastSP500 QQQ ETF supply and demand analysis and forecast for 22nd April 2019. SP500 SPY ETF is trying to break weekly supply at all time highs around 293.
There is a clear long term weekly and monthly uptrend with all time highs previously eliminated and brand new demand zones created on bigger timeframes like the one on the weekly timeframe around 281.
In an uptrend, supply levels are eliminated and demand levels are created and respected.NASDAQ QQQ ETF has already broken all time highs, expecting to see similar price action on QQQ and other american indexes like Dow Jones and Russell 2000 indexes.The bigger the impulse created by new imbalances of demand the better. There is no reason to go short counter-trend on SP500 SPY ETF when everything is heading north and new demand levels are being created. Trading with the trend is always higher odds.
SPY Retracement Scenario Before Continued Sell OffHere is a scenario for a 50%-61.8% retracement for SPY, up above $282, before continuing it's sell off.
Looking to the left, there was a very similar structure in late February into early March. You can see how the peaks are quite identical, and on the low following the last peak, there was a retracement between 50%-61.8%... and also to the area of the 100MA.
Currently, that would represent a bounce up above 282 before the selling resumes.
On the current chart, I drew 2 fib lines...
The left one is just to show that the intraday bounce on Friday, March 22 came no where near the level that could be expected from the earlier chart, which would have been between 282.30 and 282.90. It instead topped out at 281.51. This was also well short of the 100MA. If that was THE retracement, then steep selling is likely to continue.
If the low associated with the left fib lines is not "the low following the last peak", then we can count it as not in yet, and take the lowest low from the end of the day. The right fib lines are to show how high the retracement could be before the selling continues. Also, notice the little RSI divergence to end the day...
Both scenarios are bearish, and would see new lows by this time next week.
This is merely to point out the precedence of a possible nice bullish play before we get there....IF the bounce to 281.51 was not it.
Travis
JMJ - UIOGD
SPY update -At the cuspUpdate.
SPY has moved higher but this trade is still in play. Recommended course of action would be to sell here but be prepared to buy back if we cross both the yellow resistance line AND orange line.
Trend meter indicates possible further bullish action but all other indicators suggest a drop from here.
Also possible, we could grind out along the yellow line without breaking it.
Moving up or down will likely hang on a "positive" US/China trade deal announcement before month-end or even week's end.
SPY500 - charts confirming bull run is over?You can see where the support (blue trend line) broke down while a new down trending line of support (red line) was created.
Previous support line now acts as resistance. Failure to break back above the 2009 trend confirms the longest bull market in history has come to a close. Enter the bears.
I also see the left shoulder and head of a possible H&S formation. Perhaps we'll get news of a trade deal between the US and China, providing the catalyst needed to send prices higher, completing the right shoulder before said agreement falls apart or fails to materialize, sending prices down to 2470 and more likely, 2080 (.618)
Or any other number of possible catalyst.
A H&S pattern is not required to send price lower. We could just as easily bounce along the new RED support line down to 2470.
Don't buy the fear, buy the bloodJust my opinion, not financial advice!
SP500 index to reach 3350-3400 by end of September 2019.
Stock loss news has been dominating the narrative lately but the charts say otherwise.
You can see the current ATH bounced perfectly off the previous cycle's 2.618 level. (Thin black fib lines).
Longer term fib, measuring from the '94 to the dot com peak, matches up very nicely and indicates a future price of 3350-3400 before correction.