S&P500 TECHNICAL ANALYSISAs for S&P500 the index retested 4586.00 zone which presented some buying, as far as the long term trend for S&P 500 is bullish I will remain so and look to find buying opportunites only if the index trade above level 4588.00, but if the index break the level 4588.00 I will remain bullish but for me to take the trade I will want the index to trade above 4588.0 but for short positionsI want to see the 4544.00 level take out which for now it seems impossible but, nothing is impossible in trading, my t.p for long position will be @4640.00, which is more of a swing trade.
Spy500
Exploring the Unassailable Position of the U.S. DollarTechnical analysis
From the point of view of technical analysis, we believe that the EUR/USD pair has completed the corrective wave Ⓑ after reaching the price range of 1.0945-1.097, which has also been a strong resistance zone over the last few days.
After which, we expect that EUR/USD will continue to correct within the impulsive wave © until it reaches a strong support zone.
Fundamental Analysis
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
Moreover, the US economy has shown remarkable resilience relative to Europe in recent months, reflected in the faster rate of decline in inflation, job growth, and foreign direct investment. In addition, according to Adobe, Americans spent a record $5.6 billion on online shopping, up 5.5% from November 23, 2022, which will also help increase the attractiveness of the USD relative to the EUR.
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Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY.
NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week.
Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks.
(Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
A clear deviation between NQ and ES CME_MINI:NQ1! CME_MINI:ES1! We can see that the ES chart is weaker and more "bearish" than the NQ. That means in the next week open if ES breaks the checkpoint "1" we can easily see an ATH for NQ , because we have already broken the checkpoint "1" on NQ . So I think the direction and the sentiment of NQ are highly based on whether ES breaks above or bellow the checkpoint "1" . We should also wait to see where the weekly gap will open. Up or down the current weekly close.
$SPY Weekly Price TargetsBased off Price Action, the next 2 weeks will determine if we will see new ATH or fill previous Order Blocks (OB).
Currently, we are in an Uptrend with the continuation from Oct. 10th ~$360 Demand. We had a clean break through the OB created on the week of Aug. 22nd. Which lead us to fill the Apr. 4th OB.
We could potentially see a continuation to ATH or a pullback to the $437 FVG with a reversal towards ATH.
If we fail to break through the current OB or the previous ATH we could see a sell off leading to the closing of previous OB's on, Mar. 13th ~$386 & Oct. 10th ~360.
S&P sell off for 1:5 on the risk to reward (Don't buy stocks)! The S&P has had an extraordinary run in November. It has moved up 400 points from the low and now looks to have consolidated and waiting to drop. Here are the reasons we want to sell this pair this week.
1) Daily RSI is overbought
2) H4 RSI is overbought and there is a double top
3) There is a Weekly pattern to sell which reacted previously and now there is a TYPE 2 test.
4) Strong resistance of last week's high of 4525 is there
This will be a long term trade. S&P takes time to come down so I expect this to run for about 4-5 weeks.
S&P 500 Preferred Short: Better Risk-RewardToday I want to discuss about the bull and bear cases for S&P and introduce the fractal concept
Bull case:
Cup with a handle
uptrend can be considered 1-2-3 wave and recent downmove as 4th wave
it is a possibility because wave 4 is in wave 1's terrority, similar to the big downtrend. But this can also be considered a leading diagonal
downtrend sub-wave 5 ended on uptrend wave 1
Bear case:
Fractal
retracement % is very close
both retracements reached peak of wave 2 of same degree
Preferred Elliott Wave Counts
Risk-reward is better on the short side now
speed of upmove
Buy This Bargain Before It's GoneIn early October 2023, we updated our previous forecast for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust for the current year. Its price, after a short-term breakthrough of the triangle pattern (marked as (A)-(B)-(C)-(D)-(E)), returned above its lower border, and a new upward trend began despite the intensification of geopolitical tensions in the world, mainly due to the Hamas war against Israel.
On the other hand, in mid-November, US inflation data was released, which demonstrated the effectiveness of the Fed's policy. So, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 3.2% for the 12 months ending in October, one of the lowest values in recent years.
The sharp decline in this indicator was primarily due to a significant decrease in prices for both energy and used cars and trucks.
Ultimately, these data triggered a short squeeze on government bonds, which had a positive impact on the stock market. Currently, on the daily timeframe (1D) of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust, a gap has formed in the price range from $441 to $446, which, according to our estimates, will be closed in the next 1-2 weeks.
On a more global scale
Thanks to positive macroeconomic data released by government agencies in the US and European Union and lower oil prices in recent weeks, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates in early 2024 has increased sharply.
We believe that the decline in 2-year Treasury yield will continue in the near future, which will also support the continued momentum of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust. Moreover, financial market participants should pay closer attention to changes in the yield curve, which is becoming increasingly important and one of the most accurate fundamental tools for predicting changes in sentiment on Wall Street.
As soon as the 2-year Treasury rate approaches the 10-year Treasury rate, this will provoke investors and traders to exit long positions in bonds and more aggressively buy ETFs, shares of technology and pharmaceutical companies.
Conclusion
We believe the pace of the US economic recovery will continue to accelerate and expect the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to reach $463-$464 by the end of 2024.
Analyst’s Disclosure:
This article may not take into account all the risks and catalysts for the stocks described in it. Any part of this analytical article is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute an individual investment recommendation, investment idea, advice, offer to buy or sell securities, or other financial instruments. The completeness and accuracy of the information in the analytical article are not guaranteed. If any fundamental criteria or events change in the future, I do not assume any obligation to update this article.