SPY - Expecting Local GrowthCorrectional movement failed to break the local support, we expect resumption of buying to resistance.
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Spy/tlt
$SPY INDEX TECHNICAL BREAKDOWN | OCT 2020Friday was the quarterly event known as quadruple witching where S&P 500 (SPY - Get Rating) futures, options on those futures, options on individual equities, and single stock futures all expire. In the past, these ‘witching’ days have been characterized by above-average trading volume and increased volatility. But, in the current environment, those are relative terms as both have been elevated for the past few months. Still, expect some wild gyrations, especially as we head into the close today, which could carry over into Monday’s opening as positions get squared away, hedges get established and positions are rebalanced. Data suggests that there are some 90 million options contracts likely to settle in-the-money and approximately $32 billion in index rebalancing, which needs to occur.
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SPY currently sits above what has proven to be strong support @ $327 which could offer as a decent entry point considering our next support is at $324.
Possible long on a break and hold of resistance @ $332.
Upside targets: $340, $344, $347
Possible Short Entry pn break and hold below $327
Patience will pay, be very patience with these levels.
DotcomJack | Michael Jordan of Stonks
SPY to supportIt looks like the 200 SMA is going to be and always is a sweetspot for a bounce after these big pullbacks. That would make the support on SPY being $265. I wouldn't get fooled by these fake pumps towards the end of the day as it looks like they are just trying to take premium off these weeklys. Go long or enter right at the end of the day would be my suggestion.
SPY more down?Over the weekend it looks like the virus has gotten worse within the US. The may lead to more downside this week. We are currently in a correction zone but below $271.2 we are in recession territory or 20% down from our previous highs. I think that $286 and $281 will be hard resistance to break through to go lower. I am going to long puts on SPY but also hedging this week until we break $286 and $281.
Where to get in on SPY? 302-305 longs? Investors and traders alike are looking at this thing and getting frustrated if they haven't been able to catch any of this long and no one wants to buy the top with the hopes that the upside will continue. So what is a good entry location for continued longs on the SPY?
A preferred retrace is the convergence of multiple things.
1. A retrace that is no more than 5% because that would open downside floodgates, we're looking for something around the 3.50% retrace area.
2. Respects the market structure, the bull trend will continue if the retrace creates a higher low, which would be at the wedge break ($305)
3. It respects the support/resistance level we have mapped out based on the volume profile edge, which happens to be a previous all-time high ($302)
4. Volume on the move lower into the support is weak. While volume on the pop above gets strong.
5. The 50% retrace from the start of the move higher to the current high is right at around $303, so the buy zone is calculated to be around $302-305.
This will only hold true if your personal risk management and analysis conditions are met.
Disclaimer: This post is strictly for educational purposes, this does not constitute as trading advice or investment advice, TRADEPRO Academy is not responsible for anyone's market activity.
SP500 won't go much further up from 3000Below is technical analysis based on chart readings. Refer to chart for macro commentary.
SP500 meaningfully tested 3000 five times in the past 12 months.
First two formed an M resistance - didn't break through.
Third time was also two very close attempts - didn't break through.
Finally, in July, we have seen 3000+ twice. One's already past us, the other one - we are in it right now.
Does this look familiar to you? Another M shape maybe?
Coupled with the macro conditions, I believe the market cannot go much higher from now on, and will correct 10-15% by Dec 2019.
I have sold my SPY . Planning to enter below strategy this week:
Short 270 SPY call Dec2019
Long 300 SPY call Dec2019
Initial credit to buy TLT
Monthly covered call on TLT
I will close above strategy by Dec 2019. Fingers crossed.
SPY/TLT weekly - rollover likely - 7/23/2016SPY keeps making all time highs but has not been confirmed by SPY/TLT ratio.This means it continues to be appropriate to hold a mixed allocation to bond and stock, and still over weight bond (the ratio is still in its down trend).
In a similar setup in 2008, the ratio rolled over in the 5th week, and we will see how it behaves in the coming week.