SPY/TLT weekly - make or break or buy some more time - 1/7/2015The ratio is right on support. In 2007 the breakage means a long bad bear market.
Spy/tlt
SPY/TLT weekly -c loser to support - 12/19/2015Once support is hit, it can rebound, or fall right through. Will have to trade accordingly...
SPY/TLT weekly - continued lower - 12/11/2015The ratio continued to push lower and soon it will hit the blue support. It might bounce up and might fall directly through. Note the blue support is a long term support and market will be in trouble if it breaks.
SPY/TLT daily - short term bearish - 11/19/2015The ratio broke down and then made a lower high, and now it appears to be going down. This is short term bearish for stocks (indicating bonds may out perform stocks). This may last from couple of weeks to couple of months and thus there may be some swing trade opportunities.
SPY/TLT weekly - warning sign before recent selloff - 8/24/2015Reflecting on warning signs before the selloff:
1. ratio broke blue support for weeks before the selloff
2. ratio RSI broke support for weeks before the selloff
3. SPY long term trend line about to break weeks before the selloff and officially broke last week.
So we did get plenty of warning signs.
SPY/TLT monthly - similarity between 2008 and now - 3/27/2015Not much to say, not much science behind it.
SPY/TLT update - rolling over - 3/10/2015Looks more and more likely it is rolling over. Last 2 times when this happened, SPY dropped 7.8% and 5% respectively. So far SPY has dropped 3%. More likely it has more to go lower, but market seldom provides a clean-cut.
SPY/TLT monthly - make or break - 2/20/2015Technical profile is similar to that of May 2008. But we need to have an open mind about a possible breakout. We should know the outcome this month, or in March. Generally, a breakout is good for stocks, bad for bonds, and a breakdown is good for bonds and bad for stocks. Keep in mind that stock and bond can go same direction at different pace, so the ratio cannot be used alone.
The are is set.A close above 2060 and we will be looking for buy triggers on a lower time frame.
See our weekly outlook: youtu.be
SPY/TLT update - no game changer yet - 2/3/2015SPY and TLT had some large moves recent days, but on the chart it is just a blip. But I will pay more attention if the ratio can go back above the pink line or above the 10 week moving average. Right now it is not there yet and the down trend is well established. I will assume the trend will continue until it is visibly changed.
SPY/TLT study - similarities between now and November 2007Similarities:
. SPY/TLT death crossed.
. TLT faces major resistance.
If history repeats, expect:
. TLT may go side way and range bound for some time (for a year?)
. TLT eventually may spike to $150-160 range.
. Continued decline of SPY.
Also, based on the death cross of SPY/TLT, SPY might have peaked last December.
SPY/TLT update - 1/6/2014SPY/TLT breakdown just happened this week (3 days to go till Friday close). Last two instances occurred in June/July 2008 and August 2011. See chart for SPY correlations. Watch thick blue line VERY carefully!!!
Timing the next stock market crashThe TLT/SPX ratio has been a useful tool to anticipate market crashes in the past, and I'm seeing several signs suggesting a renewed risk-off period. This ratio broke a 28-month-long trendline in October after having hit its 2007 lows back in January. The 200-DMA provided support in November, leading up to the most recent market correction two weeks ago. The TLT/SPX October highs are at the same level as the February 2011 lows, making this a technical level above which a strong market correction could take place. This is definitely something to watch at the start of next year.
TLT is getting more money flow compared to SPYSPY/TLT shows the comparison of the price action of SPY and TLT. It looks like the money flows into TLT instead of SPY. This could be an important indication of future weakness of SPY, but is not a sure sign. This means that you could be fooled by this chart, but more caution is good advice here.
SPY/TLT update - 10/10/2014As of market close today (Friday), TLT broke out and TNX (10 year rate) broke down.
SPY/TLT update - 10/01/2014Looks more and more like 2008 and 2011. This Thursday and Friday are critical as I will learn if TLT is able to break out, and thus either validate or invalidate (at least defer it) this case.
A further study reveals that during 2008 and 2011 TLT spikes, 10 year rate drops about 44%. If true this time, it should drop to 1.44%, coincident with 2012 all time low. It will be fun to watch if this can materialize.
SPY/TLT update - 8/18/2014SPY/TLT ratio bounced back right from the support and may keep pushing up against the red resistance. Technically, this ratio is still weak given that it is still below 10 and 50 week MA, and its RSI is in a downward channel.
SPY/TLT update - 7/21/2014Expecting continued TLT strengthening, SPY weakening. Please see orange circles for technical indications.
SPY/TLT update 6/25/2014The ratio had a fake breakout last week and now falls back under the resistance. So it is still following 2008 and 2011 pattern very well, and thus it is still very likely we will have a significant SPY drop and a significant TLT pop.
SPY/TLT at resistanceA breakout or breakdown will have significant impact on market. So watch it carefully in the next couple of weeks.
